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July 17th, 2022 | Issue 139 |
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This week's readings on price inflation were released, exceeding forecasts and pushing assets. According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics survey published this week, American consumers paid considerably greater prices for a variety of items in June as inflation levels rose in a slowing US economy. The consumer price index, which measures the cost of common items and services against a year prior, rose 9.1 percent in June from a year ago. This was more than the 8.8% anticipated by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 1.3 percent and core CPI increased 0.7%, exceeding both forecasts. |
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This jump in consumer costs reflects a broad and serious rise in overall inflation, with real wages declining to their lowest point since records began in 2007. The unexpectedly high inflation data will keep the Federal Reserve on track to managing demand, adding to the political pressure on congressional Democrats as they approach November's midterm elections. One positive aspect revealed in the latest economic readings is the employment sector, which has remained robust with almost 400,000 new positions created last month. The CPI data preceded Friday's key retail reports, in which experts expected a 0.9% growth in June, along with the CPI increase at 1.1%. When data was released, it was revealed retail sales in the United States increased by 1% in June, which suggests that consumers are still purchasing a lot of goods. However, if inflation is considered, it's also likely that sales dropped. Retail sales have been declining for the past few months, following a period of strong growth throughout much of the epidemic. Rising prices are driving customers are becoming pickier about what they buy as a result of heightened inflation, with retailers now seeing the consequences. There has been a lot of speculation about what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will do next. The FOMC is expected to be more aggressive in the coming months, given current economic conditions and the recent rise in inflation, with a second 75 basis-point interest rate rise already expected by Fed policymakers later this month. Traders had already factored in a 75-point boost before the data were announced, but now they're also contemplating the likelihood that it could be a full percentage point. Several economists believe that a speedier move by the US Federal Reserve would result in a greater chance of a recession next year and the next meeting is scheduled for July 26-27. Following the most recent CPI and Retail statistics, the continuing earnings season will take center stage, with future market movement expected to be determined by it. Next week, look out for key earnings reports from IBM, Netflix, Tesla, AT&T, and Bank of America, as well as additional Q2 reports. |
To this point, I can't emphasize how vital it is for blog readers and members of the Yellow Tunnel community to keep referring to our Live Trading Room so as to maintain a close tie of how our AI platform is helping to show navigating us when to go in and out of select trades. It's FREE and I want highly encourage everyone to sign up to the Live Trading Room and keep checking in throughout the trading day. Every Monday and Wednesday, I highlight my our best strategies and potential trading setups via the DISCORD server and in our gotowebinar meeting room. It's the future of bringing together Yellow Tunnel'sa trading community's total services, educational products, live chat venues, support, news, how-to tutorials, webinars, live-trading demonstrations, and tons of market analysis. It is incredibly interactive and full of crucial and timely information. Just go to: https://discord.gg/YjBfkaqGGu I also want to emphasize to traders how vital a stop-loss discipline is to winning and being successful in an unforgiving market. We employ specified stop-loss strategies instructions with every trade. This markete buy and sell programs controlled by high-frequency related algorithms can create great profits or cause sudden losses, so it is imperative to maintain aan proper money management technique by element of controlling your risk with each trade. |
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| Vlad Karpel
YellowTunnel and Tradespoon Founder |
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P.S. Please see below for access to the Power Trading Live Strategy Roundtable presentation I recorded on Thursday, July 14th. Click Here P.P.S. Join our Discord Community to participate in our Free Live Market Collapse Trading Room Sessions every Monday and Wednesday at 8:15 am CST. Click Here To Join |
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When looking for a symbol in this field, I can think of no better example of a prime consumer staple that could see continued growth in the next few months than PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP). Pepsi's six-month chart shows a slight drop in line with the 6-month performance of consumer staples. However, in the last 30-days, the symbol has picked up steam, up over 8%, with room to go higher based on historical data. |
The gap between the annual seasonal line and the current year price is significant when looking at PEP's Seasonal Chart. This, along with the symbol's 10-day forecast, provides a great consumer sector opportunity. In my current reading of the market, a short-term rally is due and one that would likely benefit PEP and the consumer staples sector. |
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How To RACK-UP TO 37% GAINS OVERNIGHT FROM Recession Resistant Earnings Season Trades |
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| I will unveil two $10,000 trades. If you have not been following me, I put my money where my mouth is, you have not been maximizing your returns. |
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CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE |
As of Friday, the 5-day chart shows the $SPY was trading 1.2% lower, near $381, and just slightly above the key long-term support – $380. The technology sector ($QQQ) saw a nice boost, up 0.75% following the release of June's retail data, at $288, above its 50 DMA. I expect a short-term rally for the market in the next couple of weeks and I am watching SPY overhead resistance levels at $396 and $409, as well as support levels at $380 and $372. |
Following this week's CPI and retail data, which sent U.S. markets lower, my estimation is that the market will continue to be oversold. The dollar's ability to remain strong during this somewhat turbulent period has strengthened my belief in a short-term rally, which puts the focus on a select segment of symbols and sectors that are currently underperforming. Specifically, I am interested in the consumer section which had struggled to start the year but has since found good footing and momentum heading into the second half of the year. SPDR's Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP) has boomed almost 5% in the last month and saw a nice half-a percent boost following the latest labor report. The ETF's seasonal chart, seen below, is signaling the symbol will most likely trade higher in the next 30-50 days. |
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Market Collapse LIVE Trading Room Sessions Join Our Discord Community Every Monday and Wednesday at 8:15 am CST. Click Here To Join |
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NOTE: We encourage all subscribers to view the instructional videos on how to best use your membership and invite our members to participate in live weekly strategy roundtable workshops that are also archived for your convenience so that they can to be viewed at a later time. |
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To effectively trade in today's rapidly moving equity markets, active day traders and swing traders must stay ahead of market changes due to inflation, global uncertainty, politics, as well as innovations and technological changes used by hedge fund traders and proprietary trading firms. With traders like you in mind, we designed this intensive roundtable where you will deepen your understanding of all aspects of stock and options trading in today's changing market. |
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DISCLAIMER: Vlad and his team may have a financial interest in the picks as they trade many of the same equities and options they pick. Vlad Karpel and YellowTunnel (Company) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. All investing strategies are made available to the general public on a regular basis. We do not provide personalized financial advice or investment recommendations. As an investor, you know that any kind of investment opportunity has its risks. There is no such thing as low-risk stocks and we recommend you invest wisely and that only risk capital should be used to trade. Investing in Stocks and Options is highly speculative. No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed here and on our website. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE SUCCESS: It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators developed at YellowTunnel will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Nor should it be assumed that future picks will be profitable or will equal past performance. All of the content on our website and in our email alerts is for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. Remember, you should always consult with a licensed securities professional before purchasing or selling securities of companies profiled or discussed on YellowTunnel.com. Performance results that are discussed above are from the Live Trading Room, multiple YellowTunnel tools were used to achieve these results. Trade % Gain/Loss is calculated by dividing the $ Gain/Loss by the Max Risk which is the posted Stop Loss for the trade. Yellow Tunnel's performance data represents the average return on all trading recommendations from January 1, 2020, to today. *Win rate percentage reflects the average that Yellow Tunnel's software helped me identify a profitable investment strategy.** Triple-digit returns are not typical and are not intended to reflect the likelihood of similar returns in the future. |
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