Monday, June 13, 2022

Welcome to Western shambles week

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Jun 13, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Follow Ryan on Twitter.

If 2022 started off with a surprising level of coordination and impact among leading democracies, this week is going to feel like a shambolic mess.

In the immediate rearview mirror we have the underwhelming Summit of the Americas, which shifted to China's increasing assertiveness over Taiwan at the defense-themed Shangri-la Dialogue over the weekend, and the Iran nuclear deal is falling (further) apart.

This week sees trade ministers gather for a globalization gut check at the WTO — with few hopes for success. Meanwhile, Britain is this week gathering dozens of leaders of its crumbling Commonwealth in Rwanda — which it's paying off to take refugees it doesn't want to house at home (angering the future King Charles), while also voting on legislation to tear up the Northern Ireland Protocol that underpins Brexit.

Just to spice things up, France's electorate became even more polarized in parliamentary elections Sunday, President Joe Biden is planning a Saudi reengagement trip, and an FBI investigation has forced out the head of one of Washington's leading think tanks, alleging that he lobbied for Qatar and then misled them about it.

More of all of this below.

 

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Happening Today

BROOKING PRESIDENT RESIGNS AMID FBI QATARI LOBBYING INVESTIGATION: Retired U.S. Marine Corps Gen. John Allen is out as president of the Brookings Institution in response to a federal investigation that alleges he illegally lobbied on behalf of Qatar during the Trump administration. Allen denies wrongdoing but has not offered an explanation.

Did you know: Brookings paid Allen a cool $1.12 million in 2020, per the organization's latest tax filing.

Who else? Federal investigators have been charging hard against illegal lobbying. In 2022 political donor Imaad Zuberi was hit with a 12-year corruption sentence, including for illegally enriching himself lobbying for the government of Sri Lanka. Zuberi was ordered to pay more than $15 million in restitution and a $1.75 million fine. Richard G. Olson, a former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan, also faces federal charges.

FRANCE — MACRON FACES LEFT-WING SURGE IN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS: President Emmanuel Macron's liberals and the radical left led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon are virtually tied with around 26 percent each in the first round voting for France's National Assembly.

Far-right candidates gained around 24 percent, but that support was split between Marine Le Pen's National Rally (19 percent) and Eric Zemmour's Reconquest (less than 5 percent).

Macron majority at risk: His coalition is now on the edge of losing its majority in Parliament. The second round of voting is on June 19. While Macron's rising leftist rivals won't be able to implement their vision of disobeying EU rules — or opposing NATO — they will stand a good chance of leading a successful opposition to Macron's economic reform agenda. Sound familiar, America?

Detailed results and projections | More on the drama from POLITICO's Paris Playbook

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

WHITE HOUSE SAUDI TRIP: For weeks, Washington's been talking about Biden's planned visit to the Middle East. It's controversial because of Saudi Arabia's terrible human rights record and Biden's promise on the campaign trail to make it a "pariah" state — but now high oil prices and the need to isolate Russia make the country more palatable.

While it's easy to understand the transactional nature of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, the administration seems to underestimate the way foreigners see this — as hypocritical and purely self-interested. Why are the Saudis on the right side of a moral line, but China and Cuba are not, for example?

(Oil and Iran, cough cough.)

What the White House really means: Jamal Khashoggi 's murder was terrible but the U.S. can't tolerate $150 oil prices or Tehran ditching its last remaining nuclear controls. (Iran has dismantled monitoring equipment used by the International Atomic Energy Agency to measure uranium enrichment, which is a "fatal blow" to the deal, per IAEA director-general, Rafael Grossi.) Instead, Washington is working to integrate air defense systems between Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt — to reduce Iran's capacity to strike them.

BRITAIN — IT GETS WEIRDER

Boris Johnson's government really is made for television and tabloid dissection.

Fresh from being stabbed in both the chest and the back by 148 colleagues over the Covid parties and his general haphazard approach to leading the world's fifth-biggest economy, Johnson is this week…

— Trying to overturn an international legal agreement that is the foundation of his key policy achievement: the Brexit-linked Northern Ireland Protocol. It's taken 12 versions of the draft law to get it to this stage.

— Flying a handful of refugees on a private plane to Rwanda, rather than allow them to live in Britain, in spite of repeated legal challenges and the objections of Prince Charles.

— Heading to the same airport in Kigali as the refugees (and Prince Charles) to host 40 or so leaders for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, even though Rwanda wasn't a British colony: It just decided to join the Commonwealth in 2009.

TRADE — WTO MINISTERIAL DOWNLOAD

The highest-level meeting of trade ministers in nearly five years is underway in Geneva.

Here's POLITICO's analysis.| Our interview with WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala | Opening day speech highlights

Ministers will debate easing export restrictions on food and supporting World Food Programme imports to reduce the deadly impacts from the wheat and fertilizer shortages caused by Russia's war in Ukraine. But fears of Moscow's anger (and a veto) are real enough that a draft agreement text to let World Food Programme purchases flow unimpeded contains no explicit mention of the war.

Fernando Espino, representing the NGO Both ENDS, offered mixed reviews on those negotiations. "The WTO texts on agriculture focuses on lowering export restrictions but offers no new tools" to ensure food security for vulnerable countries. "We welcome the text on WFP," Espino added, "but the WTO must be more serious and get rid of unfair rules which fuel food insecurity."

Civil society organizations are complaining loudly. That's nothing new, given the 25-year history of massive global protests against WTO-led free trade negotiations. It's surprising though that the organization hasn't found more ways to bring outside groups into its tent.

A coalition of 50 NGOs from 22 countries insisted to Global Insider that they have been "severely limited in their participation," per Deborah James, the director of international programs at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The Norwegian Trade Campaign's Anniken Elise Storbakk said her group and others had even been locked out of the venue Sunday.

CHINA FRONTS

TOUGHER ON TAIWAN: China's defense minister Gen. Wei Fenghe was crystal clear in Singapore over the weekend: "We will resolutely crush any attempt to pursue Taiwanese independence." U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin resolutely supports the status quo.

In private meetings with the U.S. government, Chinese military officials repeatedly assert that the Taiwan Strait isn't international waters, Bloomberg reported. Despite that, Wei went on to warn that America's Indo-Pacific strategy was pushing the two sides toward confrontation.

SOFTER TOWARD UKRAINE? Diplomats in the Shangri-La Dialogue ballroom noticed a change of tone in the Chinese defense minister's Ukraine comments, Stuart Lau reports. In his speech, Wei talked about the "conflict"; but at the Q&A, without a script, he said "war" multiple times and noted that Beijing has not supplied weapons to Moscow. He also urged the U.S. and NATO to talk to Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy risked upsetting his delicate China balance by saying during his Shangri-la Dialogue engagements that the international community should help Taiwan resist China's aggression immediately, before any conventional military attack on the democracy. More from the Washington Post's Josh Rogin.

NEW SRI LANKAN PM OPEN TO MORE CHINESE DEBT AND RUSSIAN OIL: Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told the Associated Press he would first look to other sources, but would be open to buying more crude from Moscow, and that he's willing to accept more financial help from China, despite his country's mounting debt. He said Russia had also offered wheat to Sri Lanka.

U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wants to see the Quad alliance "lead the way in working to avoid an economic implosion in Sri Lanka that could spark a humanitarian crises with wider, destabilizing, regional impacts," he said in a written statement, urging use of a new Quad Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Mechanism, and urging Tokyo and Canberra to step up to show their value.

One bright spot — Australia meets with China, settles submarine deal dispute with France: Canberra will pay a little over $600 million to France's Naval Group for ditching its contract and instead purchasing nuclear-powered subs from the U.S. and U.K.

The Australian and Chinese defense ministers also met face-to-face, the first ministerial meeting between the two countries since 2019, amid a bitter diplomatic and trade dispute.

SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS

The absence of the Mexican president got the headlines, but in hindsight it was the absence of all the most important migration players (from a U.S. perspective) that sticks out. Vice President Kamala Harris, tasked with stemming migration to the U.S. from the Northern Triangle nations, couldn't manage to get them to turn up.

Biden skipped the traditional closing press conference Friday — but both he and Jill Biden took time to say they thought media outlets were unfairly negative about the summit, suggesting that perhaps we should talk to more leaders.

We're here and all ears. Hit me up at rheath@politico.com.

But the summit surely feels different when you're in a motorcade and when hundreds of delegates are there to suck up to you. Journalists see and hear things at summits that presidents don't. And what journalists saw when they looked around was a great state and country fraying . Los Angeles' massive and growing homeless population was on full display and "the unmistakable smell of urine wafted through the warm night air" outside the summit venue, per my colleagues Jonathan Lemire and Christopher Cadelago.

Argentina's President Alberto Fernández insisted "we definitely would've wished for a different Summit of the Americas," while Belize Prime Minister John Briceño described Los Angeles as "the best and worst of the Americas," where "too many have too much, and too many have too little."

RUSSIA FRONTS

On Russia Day, which took place Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken put out an eloquent statement aimed at ordinary Russians. But, really, who's listening?

The United States Agency for Global Media has a paltry budget of under $1 billion across all its networks. Where's the huge Telegram presence? Where are the Radio Free Europes for the Web 3.0 era? Send me your thoughts: rheath@politico.com.

RUSSIA IS TOLERATING ITS NEW ECONOMIC PAIN: Josh Lipsky from the Atlantic Council's Geoeconomics Center maps out why Moscow isn't more freaked out by Western sanctions and corporate withdrawals: because it's been here before.

NICARAGUA AUTHORIZES ARRIVAL OF RUSSIAN TROOPS, planes and ships into the country for training, law enforcement and emergency response purposes. President Daniel Ortega has been a staunch ally of Moscow for decades. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed the decision.

TECH — AI WITH A SOUL: Anyone who's ever tried and failed to get an airline or bank chatbot to understand basic questions would be highly skeptical of the idea that AI has developed consciousness. But that's the claim of Blake Lemoine, a mystic priest, now on leave from Google as a result of his claims.

Takeaway: Talk to any group of AI experts (your author is married to one) or futurists and it's quickly obvious that sentient AI is a real possibility, just probably not now.

GLOBETROTTERS

HELLO, AMANDEEP SINGH: U.N. Secretary General António Guterres has appointed Indian academic Amandeep Singh as his new tech envoy , despite specifically searching for female candidates for the role. The previous tech envoy was suspended in his first week on the job, and later forced out, after multiple sexual harassment complaints, which were first revealed by POLITICO.

HELLO AGAIN, LIZ SHULER: The New AFL-CIO President is now officially in post, after serving in an acting capacity since the death of Richard Trumka. See Global Insider's most recent interview with Shuler: Note her focus in tech and skills.

ADIÓS, PATRICIA ESPINOSA: Espinosa has been U.N. climate chief for six very rocky years during which she battled U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (and reentry), a global pandemic and Russia invading Ukraine. To top it off, Espinosa was also diagnosed with breast cancer. In an exclusive interview with my colleague in Brussels, Karl Mathiesen, Espinosa opened up about why she thinks a second Trump presidency would spell the end for the 1.5 degree goal of the Paris Agreement.

Who's next? Espinosa thinks her replacement needs to turn the U.N. climate body into a super watchdog. But it won't be Teresa Ribera, Spain's deputy prime minister, who told Karl she's not in the running. Costa Rican Environment Minister Andrea Meza hasn't formally declared her candidacy but is thinking about jumping in.

TESTING REQUIREMENT LIFTING FOR TRAVELING TO U.S.: Your host can attest that the system worked fine on its first day back in operation Sunday. Our family wasn't able to complete online check-in, because our airline's software hadn't been updated to reflect the end of the testing requirement, but it went fine at the airport.

 

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BRAIN FOOD

SHORT READ: Seeking justice for 200,000 blond, blue-eyed babies stolen by the Nazis: Case studies will be handed to the German government on Tuesday with a petition calling for compensation of around $22,000 for survivors stolen from neighboring countries and delivered to German families during the Nazi regime.

Only two German citizens have ever received compensation for what happened to them. One, Janina Kunsztowicz, was taken from Polish foster parents at the age of 9 in 1941 and given a new name and beaten by her adoptive mother. She received just $4,000 a few weeks before her death. Poland and Austria have approved payments, albeit on a smaller scale.

LONG READ: The unwritten laws of physics for Black women. Katrina Miller never wanted to be a trailblazer.

Thanks to editor Ben Pauker, Stuart Lau, Karl Mathiesen and producer Hannah Farrow.

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