News: The budget bill is ready. But negotiations aren’t done yet.

Monday, June 13, 2022

The budget bill is ready. But negotiations aren’t done yet.

Jun 13, 2022

Presented by California Environmental Voters

THE BUZZ — THINGS ARE HEATING UP: Sacramento hit 104 degrees this weekend. So, per the old saying, the Legislature can now pass a budget bill.

Wednesday is the constitutional deadline for lawmakers to pass some sort of plan for the next fiscal year — otherwise, they run the risk of not getting paid. For every day lawmakers don't pass a budget after June 15, they lose their pay and per diem.

The behemoth Senate Bill/Assembly Bill 154 is in print and ready for votes, which could come as early as today. But this bill doesn't represent the final iteration of the state's budget. Negotiations on a final deal between the "big three" — Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, and Gov. Gavin Newsom — are still ongoing, and likely won't be finalized for another few weeks.

Even though the budget bill passed this week won't include some aspects of Newsom's proposal, it would be highly unusual for him not to sign it. The bill is largely a function of the June 15 deadline, and usually gets approved with the understanding that the three parties still need to work out some details. Once an agreement on key issues is reached — ideally sometime before the new fiscal year on July 1 — those changes will be implemented via an amendment to the original budget act, affectionately referred to as the budget bill junior.

And there are definitely some sticking points that have yet to be worked out — details around education, energy, and inflation relief spending are still not final. And last week, during a Senate budget committee hearing, the Newsom administration laid out some concerns they have with the current budget bill.

Since Newsom's May Revision, economic conditions have only gotten worse, and the administration is worried about committing too much to ongoing spending. Stock prices are falling and inflation as increased beyond earlier projections — hitting a 40-year high of 8.6 percent on Friday.

For state budgeteers, the bleak economic outlook means California needs to avoid committing to ongoing spending. While we may have a nearly $100 billion surplus this year, such good fortune isn't guaranteed in the years to come. Erika Li, chief deputy of budgets in the administration's Department of Finance, told members of the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee last week that the administration is concerned that an extra $2 billion the legislature wants to commit to ongoing funding is unsustainable.

"Dedicating such a large amount toward new and expanded ongoing programs is concerning," Li said in prepared remarks. "Should economic conditions continue to worsen in the near future, there will be a need to scale back or even cut vital programs."

BUENOS DÍAS, good Monday morning! Counties are still counting ballots from last week's primary, and it looks like we've got at least several hundred thousand left. A quick update on some tight margins:

In the AG's race, Nathan Hochman is ahead of Eric Early by just 1.7 points in the fight to be the Republican challenger to incumbent Democrat Rob Bonta in November.
In the state superintendent's race, Lance Christensen is currently the second top vote-getter, but challengers Ainye E. Long and George Yang are not far behind, trailing by just a few thousand votes.
In the insurance commissioner's race, Marc Levine is about 11,000 votes away from second place, currently held by Republican Robert Howell.
Also a notable change over the weekend: Rep. Katie Porter's vote share dropped from 57 percent on election night to 50.6 percent as of Sunday night — a huge red shift in a battleground district.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte .

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "That was so predictable, particularly after the school board recall. Nothing about that was surprising." Newsom, former mayor of San Francisco, on the recall of SF District Attorney Chesa Boudin, via Fox 11's Elex Michaelson.

TWEET OF THE DAY: San Francisco science writer @AndreaKuszweski: "Explaining the difference between @KarlTheFog and rain in SF is sort of like trying to define the boundaries between a hot dog and a sandwich."

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: stand with our kids! Your choices in this year's state budget can save California from a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Invest California's record budget surplus in climate solutions now. The governor's $47.1 billion proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years. We need at least $75 billion invested in a Climate Courage Budget. The choice is yours. Our kids' future is at stake.

Top Talkers

MYERS SIGNS OFF — "California Politics: Some last thoughts on Golden State governing," by the Los Angeles Times' John Myers: "I thought I'd set sail from my post not with a lot of reminiscing but instead with a few observations about California's government, both those who are elected to lead it and the role of citizens in making it all work."

— Senators strike bipartisan gun safety agreement , by POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Marianne Levine: The emerging package is anchored around extra scrutiny for gun buyers under the age of 21, grants to states to implement so-called red flag laws and new spending on mental health treatment and school security. While translating the agreement into legislation will take time, the large group of supportive senators shows that the package could gain 60 votes on the Senate floor before heading to the House.

SHOULD WE BE WORRIED?— " Google engineer Blake Lemoine thinks its LaMDA AI has come to life," by the Washington Post's Nitasha Tiku: "Lemoine worked with a collaborator to present evidence to Google that LaMDA was sentient. But Google vice president Blaise Aguera y Arcas and Jen Gennai, head of Responsible Innovation, looked into his claims and dismissed them. So Lemoine, who was placed on paid administrative leave by Google on Monday, decided to go public."

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

CAMPAIGN MODE

— "What do residents in San Francisco's most pro-recall neighborhoods want in a new D.A.? This is what they said," by the SF Chronicle's Rachel Swan and Ricardo Cano: "The Chronicle visited neighborhoods where the vote to recall S.F. District Attorney Chesa Boudin was most decisive. Many residents said they want a more traditional D.A. focused on prosecuting criminals, while others said they still share some degree of Boudin's enthusiasm for progressive reforms."

— "Eric Guerra inching his way into California Assembly race with Stephanie Nguyen ," by the Sacramento Bee's Lindsey Holden: "The south Sacramento-Elk Grove Assembly primary has become a tight race for second place as a Democrat slowly ekes out a lead over the third place Republican."

'THE STRUGGLE IS REAL' — "If 'voter burnout' is real, here's how California can overcome it ," by the SF Chronicle's Joe Garofoli: "Not to voter-shame here, but c'mon. Voting is easier than ordering from Uber Eats in California. Every registered voter is mailed a ballot. You can return it with the postage already paid. You don't even have to tip. If you're not registered, you can sign up on election day."

— " Ballot measures will dominate November election," opines Dan Walters for CalMatters: "With the paucity of drama in statewide office campaigns, the November election's major focus will be on ballot measures, topped by a high-dollar duel over who, if anyone, will control gambling on sports events."

— " Chen controls California controller race, but for how long?" by CalMatters' Sameea Kamal: "His positions, or lack thereof, aren't the only challenges he faces. It's math: To compete in November, he must draw significant support from registered Democrats and no-party preference voters. Republicans make up only 24% of California's registered voters, while 47% are registered as Democrats."

A message from California Environmental Voters:

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— Advocates of a multibillion-dollar model for California schools criticize a rocky rollout , by POLITICO's Blake Jones: After successfully pushing for a multibillion-dollar program to infuse high-poverty schools with an array of services, United Ways of California is urging state lawmakers to split with Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and tap the breaks on its expansion, pointing to "issues that have plagued this program since day one.

— " SFNext: Downtown San Francisco is on the brink, and it's worse than it looks," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Noah Arroyo, visuals by Jessica Christian: "While other major cities face large numbers of workers not going back into offices, San Francisco's numbers are among the highest nationwide.The San Francisco metropolitan area has consistently lagged behind nearly all other major urban centers in worker returns, according to office-occupancy"

— "California state offices in Sacramento could become housing," by the Sacramento Bee's Ryan Lillis and Wes Venteicher: "Sacramento and other California cities must contend with a severe shortage of housing options, especially homes affordable to low-income earners. As one solution, city and state officials are bullish on the idea of converting underused state land and offices into housing."

— "Coming From Separate Worlds in Taiwan, They Collided at California Church ," by the New York Times' Amy Qin, Jill Cowan, Shawn Hubler and Amy Chang Chien: "The shooting in the church in Laguna Woods, Calif., stood out in its own way, a variation on American tragedy that seemed to show how faraway conflicts, even those in the distant past, can reverberate in the gun culture of the United States."

BAAAAAAD NEWS — " California bureaucrats separated sheep from goats. It could cost this farmer his business," by the Sac Bee's Andrew Sheeler. "Arrowsmith owns Blue Tent Farms in Red Bluff, home to more than 2,000 head of goats … He said in an interview with The Bee that he could be forced to sell his herd if the state doesn't change its interpretation of a labor law requiring him to pay overtime to his seven goat herders."

— "A computer model predicts who will become homeless in L.A. Then these workers step in," by the LA Times' Emily Alpert Reyes : "L.A. County has struggled to keep up with the number of people who become homeless annually, even as it steps up efforts to get people into housing. Figuring out whom to help is crucial because millions of residents seem vulnerable yet avoid homelessness, said Janey Rountree, founding executive director of the California Policy Law at UCLA."

KILL YOUR DARLINGS — " State Sen. Henry Stern killed his own bill to close Aliso Canyon gas facility, saying it was 'hijacked'," by the Los Angeles Daily News' Olga Grigoryants: "The unusual vote to doom his own bill came after the state Senate Appropriations Committee in May significantly watered down Stern's bill and removed its centerpiece — a deadline that required SoCalGas to shut down the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility by 2027."

— " L.A. joins nationwide campaign against gun violence with March for Our Lives rally," by the LA Times' Rebecca Schneid and James Rainey: "The L.A. March for Our Lives rally was one of hundreds that took place across Southern California and the nation Saturday in solidarity with a flagship march in Washington, D.C. The movement emerged after the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., that left 17 people dead."

DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

— Biden ducks summit 'debacle' in Los Angeles. But it wasn't smooth , by POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago and Jonathan Lemire: Despite the absence of the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, along with Mexico and several other nations, [Gerardo Munck, an expert on the region from the University of Southern California] said Biden still advanced the discussion on a set of specific U.S. proposals focused on the hemisphere

WHEN IN ROME — While in town for the Summit of the Americas, President Joe Biden attended two fundraisers in Los Angeles on Friday, one at the home of Andrew Hauptman, chairman of Andell Holdings, and another at the home of billionaire Haim Saban, where, according to Deadline, Rep. Adam Schiff was also in attendance.

MIXTAPE

— "Prison rehab: Can California learn anything from Norway?," by CalMatters' Nigel Duara.

— "California vineyard laborers wanted wildfire safety. Then came a shadowy counter-movement," by the Guardian's Alleen Brown.

THIS LITTLE PIGGIE LEFT CALIFORNIA — " Smithfield Foods to shutter California meat-packing plant," via the Associated Press.

— "Country music singer Toby Keith reveals he has stomach cancer ," via ABC News.

BIRTHDAYS

(was Saturday): Google's Ramya Raghavan … Juliette Medina

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: do you stand with our kids?

Your choices in this year's state budget can either save California or doom it to a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Investing California's record budget surplus in clean energy and transportation, water, and other vital infrastructure now will provide a lifeline.

Climate change will soon bring our home state to a point of no return. We can't overcome this massive threat to our health, lives, and livelihoods without bold leadership and a massive investment. The governor's $47.1 billion climate proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years.

Think bigger and pass a Climate Courage Budget that invests at least $75 billion over five years. The choice is yours but it's our kids' future at stake. Learn more here.