Monday, June 27, 2022

Russia’s very bad day

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Jun 27, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Follow Ryan on Twitter.

Happening Today

Global Insider is coming to you from Bavaria, Germany, where G-7 leaders are meeting but risk burying themselves in micro-commitments and vague promises, instead of working to address the consequences of their impact on the world.

In this new article , I ask whether the world's leading democracies are stuck in their comfort zone instead of dealing with the autocracies that could help solve the world's toughest problems.

WHERE TO FIND GLOBAL INSIDER TODAY 

Join POLITICO's trans-Atlantic teams at a G-7 Twitter Space: 12:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. local time. Listen here.

Follow POLITICO's live blog from the G-7.

RUSSIA'S BAD DAY 

Russia defaults: Moscow defaulted on around $100 million of interest payments at midnight — its first default since the Bolshevik revolution in 1918. Russia claims it has the money to pay, but that Western sanctions are preventing it from paying in dollars.

Appropriating Nord Stream 2: Der Spiegel reported that Berlin is looking at how to take control of the parts of the completed Russian pipelines on German territory. The plan is to cut the pipeline and then use the German-controlled segments to form a new pipeline to import non-Russian gas.

 

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POSTCARD FROM BAVARIA — G-7 SUMMIT

The U.S. and G-7 allies promised to clamp down further on Russia this morning: The new measures include the U.S. increasing tariffs on more than 570 groups of Russian products worth approximately $2.3 billion to Russia, funneling the proceeds to Ukraine.

"Our measures will continue to sap Putin's military-industrial complex of critical components, prevent the central bank's foreign reserves from propping up an ailing economy and deprive Putin of the resources he needs to wage his war, and hold the kleptocracy to account for its ill-gotten gains. The effectiveness of our measures will only compound over time to further isolate Russia from the world economy," the White House said in a statement.

"For as long as it takes" — Draft declaration: Leaders are set to commit to support Ukraine's defense indefinitely according to a recent draft of declaration that would be published alongside the summit communique. The leaders also issued a statement of support after meeting virtually with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this morning.

Johnson and Macron in Ukraine pact.

TODAY'S AGENDA

Day pass for the rest of democratic world: Today's guest passes and helicopter rides go to leaders representing 3 billion people (four times the G-7 population). Step on up Narendra Modi (India), Macky Sall (African Union), Joko Widodo (Indonesia), Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa) and Alberto Fernández (Argentina).

Bavarian premier Markus Söder spent last night wining and dining this year's guests in Munich. While the event was full of pomp and ceremony (watch Ramaphosa walk a red carpet filled with Germans in traditional dress), the event was the G-7 equivalent of the kids table at a wedding. 

U.S. push for a price cap on Russian oil will be a major discussion point. The idea is that the EU and U.K., which are currently trying to hamper Russian oil sales by banning insurance for the cargo ships that transport oil, would lift this sanction for countries that accept the terms — only buying Russian oil at an agreed maximum price (still at a price significantly higher than other energy sources). Germany is skeptical that the idea can work.

Germany's climate club: Originally a centerpiece of Germany's G-7 presidency plans, this idea has been relegated to the shadows by Russia's invasion Ukraine. Berlin is still pushing ahead, and essentially wants coalitions of the willing to jointly set ambitious targets, while exempting each other from any climate taxes imposed on non-members of the club. If there's an announcement today it is likely a staging post to future action, rather than a direct climate victory.

Reality check: Germany has a climate-conscious self-image. But the rest of the world struggles to buy in: Berlin pushed Nord Stream 2 for years after neighbors warned against it; Angela Merkel then shut down nuclear plants as a political ploy; and in 2022 with the Greens in government, Germany is turning to coal instead of nuclear to replace Russian gas. It doesn't add up.

Just Energy Transition Partnerships: These partnerships, promised at COP26, involve rich countries making structured cash offers for developing economies to wean off coal. South Africa was first to strike a deal. Senegal, India and Indonesia — all guests at this summit — have also been in negotiations.

Vietnam is under consideration, but recently jailed Ngụy Thị Khanh, the country's most prominent anti-coal activist. POLITICO's own Zack Colman and Karl Mathiesen dug into the delicate Vietnam juggling act: when to push on civil rights and when to notch a climate win.

G-7 V. G-20 — U.S. AND EU AT ODDS OVER WHICH MATTERS MOST

The G-7 leaders have been notably cozy at Schloss Elmau, but that's raising questions about whether they need to spend more time out of their democratic comfort zone. While the G-7 is a useful organizing platform for democracies, it's less useful at solving global challenges: representing less than half of global GDP and just 1 in 10 people on the planet.

That's putting the U.S. and EU leaders on something of a collision course. The Biden administration is doubling down on the G-7. In a briefing last week, a senior Biden administration official said that "President Biden and his administration's focus on the G-7 has elevated it to being the premier vehicle for multilateral engagement."

In contrast, the EU's Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel are performing a tag-team in media interviews arguing that the G-20 needs a diplomatic investment. Michel told POLITICO Sunday that he doesn't rule out sitting at the G-20 table with Russian President Vladimir Putin later this year. A senior EU official added: "Diplomacy is not about having just cozy chats with your like-minded friends."

The top recommendation from a German government-commissioned paper — from members of Think7, a group of climate research institutions from G-7 member countries: "preserve the G-20 as an effective forum for global problem-solving," arguing that rich democracies will only achieve climate success when they "join forces" with other G-20 countries.

WHERE THE G-7 IS MISSING THE MARK

CLIMATE: It's difficult to cajole developing countries to abandon coal while reopening your own coal-fired power plants.

Climate rhetoric and reality also diverge at the G-7: Read about Karl Mathiesen's pointless helicopter ride.

Mary Robinson, chair of The Elders and a former president of Ireland, writes that this summit "must be where rich nations finally deliver on the climate finance promises they have made" to developing nations.

FOOD SECURITY: The G-7 is taking action where more flexible formats like the World Economic Forum have failed to step in, via a " Global Alliance for Food Security." But no specific financial commitments or deadlines have been announced, and the alliance doesn't touch on the Black Sea shipping lanes closed off by the Russian navy. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt is scathing about the lack of urgent G-7 and NATO discussion on the issue. "To rely only on U.N. talks to unblock Odesa port is hardly realistic, since Russia will not give way until they see the U.S., EU and U.K. are ready to move in and escort (ships carrying grain)," he said.

CHINA: G-7 members have competing visions of whether and how to confront China.

BUILD BACK BETTER AGAIN, MAYBE: The key announcement Sunday was a promise that G-7 countries would work to deliver $600 billion in infrastructure to emerging economies. The problem: The leaders made a similar "Build Back Better World" commitment at last year's G-7 in Cornwall, and mostly failed to deliver.

Only the EU came up with a plan — it's $315 billion Global Gateway — which went unfunded and unspent and then simply recycled into yesterday's $600 billion infrastructure partnership. The U.S. can point to a few projects already underway (including a solar project in Angola and a $600 million submarine telecommunications cable connecting Singapore, the Horn of Africa, Egypt and France), but otherwise can't account for the $200 billion it wants to "leverage" for the program over the coming five years.

German MEP Reinhard Bütikofer , a former leader of the German Greens, told Global Insider that Biden committing $200 billion without knowing whether Congress will sign on is a "pretty empty gesture," compared to the $50-$100 billion China has pumped into its Belt and Road Initiative every year for the last decade. Or as Hayley Channer, a U.S.-based senior policy fellow at the Perth USAsia Centre told us: "China keeps writing checks. The U.S. keeps saying: 'We have a checkbook.'"

Who we're watching today — Macky Sall: The Senegalese president who heads the African Union has alarmed Western officials by apparently buying some of Russia's arguments about who is to blame for the global food crisis. G-7 governments have left him an open door by refusing to consider military escorts for Ukraine grain exports out of Odesa.

TROLLING PUTIN: The G-7 leaders tore into Putin's tough-guy image Sunday. Sitting down for a photo, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked: "Jackets on? Jackets off? Can we take our clothes off?" before adding: "We all have to show that we're tougher than Putin."

A laughing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded: "We're going to get the bare-chested horseback riding display." The EU's President von der Leyen jumped in: "Oh yes, horseback riding is the best." Here's a video of the whole exchange.

Inside the alpine castle where the G-7 leaders are staying.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

GLOBAL FALLOUT ROE V. WADE

How tech will be used in a post-Roe future.

Giselle Carino, the chief executive officer of Fòs Feminista , an alliance of 170 global feminist organizations, pulled no punches in her response to the Supreme Court's decision. She said it reflected a "tightening grip of authoritarian forces in the United States" and puts the country among "a small handful of countries that have backtracked on abortion rights: El Salvador, Honduras, Iran, Nicaragua, and Poland. The damage to the United States' reputation as a public health leader globally will be immense."

The Hillary Clinton moment: John Ellis writes about why a woman needs to lead the Democratic response to the end of national abortion rights, and why Clinton is the only Democrat with the network to do it. He adds: "There's a template for Clinton's return from the wilderness of bitter defeat: the resurrection of Richard Nixon."

5 U.S. states where abortion issues will impact midterms

By the numbers: American public opinion on overturning Roe v. Wade is 59-41 against. Among only women, it's 67-33.

Another way to think about those numbers: 67 percent of the Supreme Court thinks the way 33 percent of American women do.

UKRAINE — INSIDE UKRAINE'S 'SHAMAN' SPECIAL FORCE: This battalion takes the fight across the border into Russia, but is now suffering significant casualties, after a series of crushing victories over Russian forces in the early weeks of the war.

U.K. — SIX TORY MPS READY TO DEFECT — 'WE CAN'T WAIT A YEAR': Additional campaigns to undermine Boris Johnson are opening up on multiple fronts. The latest is a group of Conservative MPs in discussions about defecting to rival parties if they can't soon oust Johnson themselves. Alongside that Conservative political staffers now openly brief against their prime minister to POLITICO reporters. That simply doesn't happen in a united political party.

COLOMBIA — FROM CLEANER TO VICE PRESIDENT: Francia Márquez, 40, once worked cleaning the homes of the rich, has been "the sensation of the election. Diminutive, softly spoken, but often disarmingly direct," the Times of London reports, adding "She has a trenchant ability to call out snobbery, misogyny, and racism. Last week, on live television, she bristled at what she described as the "classism" of a prominent journalist's question."

AUSTRALIA — ALBANESE APPROVAL SOARS DURING FIRST MONTH IN OFFICE: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's approval rating has soared 15 points in his first month, and now stands at 57 percent. He is now the third most popular leader among all those tracked in Morning Consult's Global Leader Approval Tracker.

PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP: In response to China's efforts to build up assets and alliances across Pacific Islands, there is now "Partners in the Blue Pacific" brought to the region by Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the U.K. and U.S. It's not clear what new actions this informal AUKUS+2 grouping will take in the region (they already provide around $2 billion a year in assistance). They promise to ensure "sovereignty, transparency, accountability" and be "most of all, led and guided by the Pacific Islands."

GLOBETROTTERS

ELITE D.C. FALLS FOR MATCHMAKERS: Sick of swiping and getting ghosted, and starved by the city's anemic social scene, D.C.'s single power players are resurrecting an old-timey way of looking for love. Jessica Goldstein spent this spring digging up the inside intel from matchmakers on how these services work.

Spoiler alert: It's expensive, awkward and occasionally romantic — a story of heiresses and TV hosts, senators' children, IMF staffers wining and dining on their tax-free salaries, and the eligible bachelors of the L'Enfant Plaza Starbucks.

One VIP client requested his matchmaker set him up with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who, uh, has a longtime boyfriend. Another asked for Margot Robbie, the married movie star. Straight Washington women are crushing on … NBC's Steve Kornacki.

UKRAINE SEEKING NEW SPY CHIEF: Zelenskyy is planning to replace the man he appointed to lead his presidential campaign and later the country's domestic intelligence and security agency: his childhood friend Ivan Bakanov, four senior Ukrainian officials told POLITICO. More from Christopher Miller.

 

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BRAIN FOOD

America is growing apart in dangerous ways: Ronald Brownstein analyses the U.S. data and historical examples of what happens after such cleavages.

Ireland's population is still below its 1840s level, just before severe famine was imposed on the country — but the Emerald Isle has recorded its highest tally since the 1850s.

Thanks to editor Ben Pauker, Alex Ward and producer Hannah Farrow.

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