Monday, June 27, 2022

POLITICO Florida Playbook: Battleground Florida's abortion fallout

Gary Fineout's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
Jun 27, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Gary Fineout

Hello and welcome to Monday.

Reverberations — The momentous decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to reverse Roe vs. Wade — which once again reinforced the tremendous political and social chasm that exists in this nation — could create a series of political shockwaves in Florida over the next year.

What follows The biggest initial question is what the state's Republican leaders will do in response. Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday said the "prayers of millions" had been answered by the ruling and suggested that he wanted to "expand pro-life protections." It seems unlikely, however, that the GOP-controlled Legislature will act before this year's November elections. Instead, all indications are that a push will likely come after the state's recently-enacted ban on abortions after 15 weeks is tested in the courts.

Another ruling falling? — This morning, lawyers for the American Civil Liberties Union will square off in a Tallahassee courtroom and argue that a provision in Florida's constitution overrides the ban that is scheduled to take effect on Friday. The state Supreme Court more than 30 years ago ruled – based on a privacy clause adopted by voters – applied to abortion restrictions. The question is whether the high court – which has been remade by DeSantis – will wipe it out.

On the trail While that legal battle plays out, however, Florida's post-Roe future shifts to the fall elections, where Republicans had been predicting a "red wave" in the state. Can Democrats use the ruling to energize their base and voters across the state to neutralize the GOP's advantages? There will be sharp differences in both the races for governor and U.S. Senate when it comes to abortion.

A choice for Democrats Another big question is whether the ruling jolts the seemingly static Democratic primary for governor. The campaign of Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried — who got two national cable appearances over the weekend to talk about the ruling — clearly expects that it will.

A moment? Fried campaign senior adviser Matthew Van Name distributed a memo on Sunday contending that the issue is "kryptonite" to Rep. Charlie Crist's primary campaign. Setting aside the — ahem — Superman metaphor Fried's campaign says that primary voters are turned off when they find out that Crist has repeatedly called himself "pro-life" and appointed conservatives to the state Supreme Court while he was governor who could throw out the 1989 ruling that has been used to blunt abortion restrictions.

Punching Fried also jabbed directly at Crist on Twitter, saying: "Can't believe I'm in a Democratic primary with a 'pro-life' guy. Seriously. WTF." A clip of Fried's speech at a rally on Friday had been viewed nearly 400,000 times on Twitter alone. Crist, for his part, said that if he were elected he would issue an executive order protecting reproductive rights and he also suggested that both Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch could be impeached for lying to Congress about their stance on Roe v. Wade . In just 58 days, Floridians will see whether Fried's barrage of criticism will work.

— WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis.

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DRIVING THE DAY

WHAT'S NEXT? — DeSantis says Florida will 'expand pro-life protections' after Supreme Court ruling , by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian: Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis promised to expand "pro-life protections" on Friday in the wake of the Supreme Court's ruling striking down the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, a historic ruling from the high court that drew praise from Florida's Republicans and condemnation from Democrats. DeSantis didn't provide details on how he or Florida's GOP-controlled House and Senate would seek to further restrict abortion access in the state. Republican legislative leaders had previously signaled a willingness to pursue more prohibitions during next year's legislative session.

'A NEW ERA' — "Abortion ruling sows sharper divisions on path forward in South Florida," by Miami Herald's Bianca Padró Ocasio: "A who's who of South Florida Republicans and conservative activists filled a hotel ballroom that was brimming with unapologetic pride the morning after the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn the 1973 landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that gave women the legal right to have an abortion. 'I just want to say that this morning, you woke up in a nation that is pro-life,' said Anthony Verdugo, the founder and executive director of the Christian Family Coalition Florida. The crowd — which included Lt. Gov. Jeanette Núñez, Republican state House members, leaders from Miami's right-wing Moms For Liberty group and other GOP candidates running for county and state office — burst into cheers and applause."

The map shows clusters of states in the South and West where abortion is immediately or soon to be illegal following a U.S. Supreme Court decision on Roe. Abortion remains legal in a handful of states in the east, including Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and South Carolina, though that could change pending court action.

Megan Messerly / POLITICO


'EVERYTHING IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE' — "Florida emerges as a key battleground in state-by-state abortion fight," by Washington Post's Tim Craig: "But in Florida, where residents in a half-dozen relatively liberal urban counties are continually locked in political duels with the conservatives who dominate much of the rest of the state, the debate over abortion rights is just getting started. It's a matter that will potentially have far-reaching consequences for millions of women in the South. The Sunshine State's new ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy could emerge as one of the more flexible in the region after trigger laws and other unenforced abortion laws now before the courts are likely go into effect."

Thousands travel to Florida for abortions. The Supreme Court's ruling could change that, by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian

— " Why Florida isn't losing the right to an abortion … yet," by The Tampa Bay Times' Kirby Wilson and Lauren Peace

— " Providers argue Florida's privacy measure protects abortion," by The Associated Press

— "Despite end of Roe v. Wade, a Hialeah abortion clinic is packed as usual. But for how long? " by Miami Herald's Ana Claudia Chacin

— "After Supreme Court ends Roe v. Wade, fears in Florida that same-sex marriage is next," by Miami Herald's Douglas Hanks

— "Anna Eskamani dares Republicans to call special session on abortion," by Florida Politics' Scott Powers

— " Disney offers 'travel benefit' for employees seeking an abortion," by Tampa Bay Times' Jay Cridlin

CAMPAIGN MODE

WAITING IN THE WINGS — Trump fatigue sets in: 'Some donors are getting tired of the sh—show , by POLITICO's Meredith McGraw and Matt Dixon: While Dan Eberhart suspected that the hearings were hardening Trump's core supporters, he also noted that one of the former president's more formidable, potential opponents was benefiting too. "Ron DeSantis," he said of the Florida governor, "is lying in wait sharpening his knives." In some pockets of DeSantis land, these sentiments are shared. The governor's advisers do not see the January 6 hearings as a "nail in the coffin" for Trump, but rather another in a line of distractions that are exhausting the sort of top-line Republican money that could be influential to a potential 2024 Trump-DeSantis primary clash.

Still focused on a big November win — POLITICO reported last week that DeSantis also has no interest in seeking Trump's endorsement for his reelection bid, another signal he does not see his political fate tethered to the former president who helped make him. "A five-point win, and I think he would be off to the races," the person said. "January 6 or not, the fact that he [DeSantis] is not seeking Trump's endorsement I think says everything you need to know."

FRONTLINES — Florida Republicans turn school elections into new political battlegrounds, by POLITICO's Andrew Atterbury: Florida Republicans are capitalizing on the national movement surrounding parental rights and education by jumping into local school board races with crucial endorsements and much-needed cash. Dozens of political committees with ties to Florida conservatives are funneling thousands of dollars toward candidates who share Gov. Ron DeSantis' priorities by campaigning against issues like critical race theory. DeSantis endorsed a slate of 10 school board candidates — a rare, if not unprecedented, move for a Florida governor that could help Republicans capture more support in the midterms from parents energized by contentious issues such as masking students during the pandemic.

P.O.V. "People are frustrated with the business-as-usual on these school boards," said Christian Ziegler, vice chair of the Republican Party of Florida whose wife, Bridget, is running to keep her seat on the Sarasota County school board and has been endorsed by DeSantis. "Payback is coming in August" when the school board elections are held, Ziegler said.

BY THE NUMBERS — Gov. Ron DeSantis hauled $3.6 million in the first half of June for his campaign account and his political committee, according to campaign reports filed on Friday. Among some of the notable donors in the latest reports: Former Illinois Gov. and businessman Bruce Rauner . Rauner, who relocated to the state after he lost his reelection campaign in 2018, donated $200,000 in June, bringing Rauner's total level of support for DeSantis this cycle to $650,000. Another donor: Orlando businessman Craig Mateer, who DeSantis appointed to the panel that oversees the state university system in March, contributed $100,000.

Left unspent DeSantis now has $114.3 million in the bank with four-and-a-half months left before the November election.

Crist dominates Democrats Rep. Charlie Crist raised nearly $610,000 between June 1 and June 17, while Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried took in slightly less than $158,000. Crist is also widening the gap in money on hand over his primary rival. Crist now has $6.4 million in the bank while Fried has $3.7 million.

UNION LABEL Florida unions give Crist full primary endorsement , by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: Florida's labor unions on Friday gave a full endorsement to Democrat Rep. Charlie Crist's gubernatorial campaign, a big win for the former Republican governor, who is increasingly seen as the frontrunner to get his party's nomination. The endorsement came after some internal tension, as the Florida Education Association pushed to give Crist an endorsement last month when other union groups that are part of the so-called Committee on Political Education, which is the central council that formally makes endorsements for organized labor in Florida, held off endorsing.

charlie_crist_AP.jpg


— "Election mailer accuses Sabatini of being 'cozy' with pedophiles," by Orlando Sentinel's Skyler Swisher

— "Donna Deegan returns five-figure contribution from Andrew Gillum," by Florida Politics' Jacob Ogles

— " Falling registrations, few candidates and defections: what's going on with Brevard Democrats," by Florida Today's Ralph Chapoco

— "Democratic Progressive Caucus standing down in Democratic gubernatorial primary ," by Florida Politics' Scott Powers

— "Laura Loomer says Webster won't debate her because of his 'declining' health," by The Floridian's Jim McCool

 

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DATELINE D.C.

GUN MEASURE NOW LAW The U.S. House on Friday voted 234-193 to send a gun safety package to President Joe Biden. Biden signed the measure into law on Saturday. Rep. María Elvira Salazar, who is running in one of the few competitive districts in Florida this year, was the lone Florida Republican to vote in favor of the bill.

FLIP-FLOP? — "Vern Buchanan votes against gun bill despite past support for stronger gun restrictions," by Sarasota Herald-Tribune's Zac Anderson: "U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan voted against a bipartisan gun bill Friday despite having backed a more significant gun control measure just three years ago. Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, voted in favor of a universal background check bill in 2019. That measure, H.R. 8, would have expanded background checks to include gun sales over the Internet and at gun shows."

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

STRIKE THREE — "DeSantis drops veto hammer on controversial alimony bill," by News Service of Florida's Dara Kam: "Acting on one of the most emotionally charged issues of the 2022 legislative session, Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday vetoed a measure that would have overhauled the state's alimony laws. DeSantis' veto marked the third time that supporters of changing the alimony system have successfully shepherded bills through the Legislature only to have them nixed. Former Gov. Rick Scott twice vetoed such legislation, with a standoff over the issue leading to a near-fracas outside Scott's office in 2016."

— " DeSantis vetoes bill that would have punished local governments for regulating businesses," by Miami Herald's Mary Ellen Klas

— " State of Florida agrees to pay $134 million for Garcon Point Bridge," by News Service of Florida's Jim Turner

— "DeSantis signs bills on smoking bans, stolen sexual images ," by The Associated Press' Brendan Farrington

— "'Markel Act' signed into law, gives grandparents visitation rights," by Florida Politics' Peter Schorsch

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

TRENDLINES — "COVID wave may be peaking in Florida as cases start to level off, but deaths spike," by Palm Beach Post's Chris Persaud: "The latest COVID-19 wave in Florida may be cresting, hospital reports indicate, while the weekly statewide death toll spiked by more than 1,000 residents for the first time in more than three months. The number of COVID-positive patients statewide grew by 129 this week, the smallest seven-day increase since April 26, the U.S. Health and Human Services Department reported Friday."

'ON THE FRONT LINES'— " COVID vaccines for infants arrive in Florida. Here's why doctors are throwing them away," by Miami Herald's Daniel Chang: "But pediatricians and public health advocates working to vaccinate newly eligible children under 5 said they are throwing away the majority of the doses they have ordered because Gov. Ron DeSantis will not authorize state programs to administer the vaccines for infants and toddlers, effectively cutting off supply to many family doctors. The health department also will not promote the vaccines to parents, some of whom are hesitant to have their young children vaccinated."

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

POWER PLAY — "Consultants for FPL covertly monitored journalist after critical coverage," by Orlando Sentinel's Annie Martin and Floodlight's Mario Alejandro Ariza: "Consultants working for America's largest power company covertly monitored a Jacksonville journalist and obtained a report containing his social security number and other sensitive personal information, leaked documents reveal. The surveillance happened after the journalist wrote critically about how Florida Power & Light tried to sway city council members to sign off on its business plans. Text messages show an FPL executive was kept abreast of Florida Times-Union columnist Nate Monroe's movements while he was on vacation in the Florida panhandle in November 2019, an investigation by the Times-Union, the Orlando Sentinel and Floodlight has found."

— "'Unsettling,' 'un-American': FPL consultant obtained personal information, surveillance photo of journalist Nate Monroe," by Florida Times-Union's David Bauerlein  

— " After halting new business in Florida, Bankers CEO faults reinsurers excessive price hikes," by Insurance Journal's William Rabb

— " St. Pete Pride draws thousands in first parade after pandemic," by Tampa Bay Times' Natalie Weber

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— "F.B.I. raids Orlando museum and removes Basquiat paintings," by The New York Times' Brett Sokol and Matt Stevens: "The Federal Bureau of Investigation raided the Orlando Museum of Art on Friday, taking all 25 works that had been part of an exhibition on the life and work of Jean-Michel Basquiat, the museum said. An affidavit filed to secure the search warrant called the collection's origin story, as it had been described by its owners and the museum, into question, and noted that there was reason to doubt the authenticity of the art works."

BIRTHDAYS: State Sen. Lori Berman … former Rep. Jeff MillerSimone Marstiller, secretary of the Agency for Health Care Administration … Pat Roberts, president and CEO of Florida Association of Broadcasters

 

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