News : POLITICO Florida Playbook: A Florida election year without the barrage of ads?

Wednesday, June 8, 2022

POLITICO Florida Playbook: A Florida election year without the barrage of ads?

Jun 08, 2022

Hello and welcome to Wednesday.

A new era? — Given Florida's two-decade-plus run as a battleground state, this is almost unthinkable. But as the state continues to shift from a purple state to a red one there's a chance it could be accompanied by an end to the constant barrage of television ads that are typically so prevalent in the weeks ahead of Election Day.

Activity — This week Florida First Project, a super PAC backing Sen. Marco Rubio, hit Rep. Val Demings with a $1.5 million ad buy in the Tampa Bay area.

Not much going on — But while national groups affiliated with both parties are reserving ad time across the country they are avoiding Florida so far. A recent analysis by AdImpact, a media tracking firm, showed a dearth of major ad buys for the fall. Gov. Ron DeSantis has reserved about $2 million worth of ad time between August and November. The Congressional Leadership Fund — the super PAC backing House Republicans — has booked $1.2 million in the race for Florida's 14th Congressional District, but after the final go-round of redistricting that seat is no longer considered competitive.

Do you remember? — Back in 2020, a tsunami of ads flooded the Florida airwaves when at least roughly $250 million worth was spent as Donald Trump, Joe Biden and their allies fought it out in the state.

Flash forward — Trump won the state by a decent margin (for Florida), the GOP now holds a voter registration edge, Biden's ratings are underwater and Republicans remain confident that they will dismantle Democrats in the fall. It all adds up to a political environment where it may not be necessary — or prudent — to fill the airwaves with a torrent of ads, many of them negative.

The center cannot hold — Now will it stay this way? Probably not. Demings has money to go up on the air and all expectations are that the DeSantis campaign is ready to roll out a steady stream of negative ads against the eventual Democratic opponent. Before then? Well, there's only two-and-half months until the Democratic primary and neither Charlie Crist nor Nikki Fried have mounted a sustained ad campaign. A big part, of course, is money and the eventual winner wants to have as much on hand to counter DeSantis.

Slouching toward Miami — There will be those who will note that the world is shifting and television ads are no longer as potent in a changed media ecosystem where information is consumed in a variety of ways. Yes, but…Florida remains a retirement haven and a good way to reach large chunk of regular voters is through TV ads. Still, those ads are only worthwhile if you think voters remain persuadable. The early returns show that a lot of folks may think that's no longer the case.

— WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis.

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CAMPAIGN MODE

WASSSERMAN SCHULTZ BACKS CRIST — Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the former chair of the Democratic National Committee, endorsed Rep. Charlie Crist's campaign for governor on Wednesday. The South Florida Democrat's backing of Crist comes even as rival Nikki Fried continues to suggest Crist — who was a Republican when he served as governor — cannot be trusted. In a statement, Wasserman Schultz called Crist a "principled leader" and said "faced with the possibility of another four years under Gov. DeSantis' divisive, mean-spirited rule, Charlie is clearly the leader this moment calls for."

Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz. | AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

POLL: BRACY WITH LEAD IN CD-10 RACE — A polling memo shared with Florida Playbook shows that state Sen. Randolph Bracy has a double-digit lead over Maxwell Alejandro Frost among Democratic primary voters in Florida's 10th Congressional District. Frost, an activist running for office for the first time, has been picking up endorsements and has outraised Bracy so far. But Democratic polling firm Impact Research found that while more than half of those polled remain undecided, 29 percent back Bracy compared to nine percent for Frost. After voters are given biographical information for both candidates, Bracy's has a 14-point lead. Bracy also has much higher name recognition among voters and is the "frontrunner" concludes the firm. The survey of roughly 400 primary voters, which was done by phone and online, has an error margin of plus/minus 4.9 percent.

THE SCRAMBLE CONTINUES — Self-funding Republican Jerry Torres switching seats to challenge Kathy Castor, by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: Republican Jerry Torres, who says he will put millions of dollars of his own money into a bid for Congress, is challenging Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, whose Tampa-area seat is overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning. Torres, a retired defense contractor and former Green Beret, made waves last month when he said he would spend up to $15 million to run for Florida's 15th Congressional seat, a newly-drawn GOP-leaning seat that has attracted several big-name Republicans, including former Florida Secretary of State Laurel Lee, term-limited Florida Senate budget chief Kelli Stargel (R-Lakeland), and state Rep. Jackie Toledo (R-Tampa). Because there are so many Republicans running for that seat, Torres says, he wanted to focus on trying to beat a Democrat.

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Florida House Speaker Chris Sprowls on Tuesday endorsed Kevin Hayslett in the crowded Republican primary for Florida's 13th Congressional District. Sprowls called Hayslett, who is an attorney and former prosecutor, "a Pinellas County leader with a results-oriented vision for our country." … Florida Planned Parenthood PAC on Monday endorsed 13 Democrats running for state Senate — including incumbent Sen. Lauren Book, who is in a competitive primary — as well as 22 candidates running for the state House ...

… Maxwell Alejandro Frost , a Democratic candidate for Florida's 10th Congressional District, has picked up the endorsements of State Rep. Carlos Guillermo-Smith and Orange County Property Appraiser Amy Mercado in the race.

... Rep. Charlie Crist endorsed state Sen. Annette Taddeo for Florida's 27th Congressional District. Taddeo had been a Democratic candidate for governor, but on Monday decided to challenge GOP incumbent Rep. María Elvira Salazar. Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell, a Democrat, is also in the race.

— "Jay Trumbull launches campaign for SD 2, lands DeSantis endorsement ," by The Capitolist's Jordan Kirkland

— "Conservative commentator Dave Rubin gave Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis an anti-Biden 'Let's Go Brandon' T-shirt during interview," by Insider's Kimberly Leonard

— "State Sen. Audrey Gibson announces run for Jacksonville mayor in 2023," by Florida Times-Union's David Bauerlein

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

'THERE'S A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE' — "DeSantis signs school safety bill amid calls for special session on gun violence," by Orlando Sentinel's Jeffrey Schweers and Steven Lemongello: "On the same day Democrats began pushing for a special session on gun violence, Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a bill adding to the state's long list of school safety reforms enacted since the Valentine's Day mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. DeSantis put out a news release Tuesday announcing he signed the bipartisan-supported bill, HB 1421, which adopts a number of additional recommendations by the task force created in the wake of the shooting deaths of 17 students and faculty at the Parkland high school on Feb. 14, 2018."

Mission goes on — "It also extends the sunset of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Commission by another three years, through 2026. And it revises the commission's responsibilities from investigating system failures at Parkland and other, previous mass shootings in Florida and developing recommendations to improving those systems to "monitoring the implementation of school safety" laws. "There's a lot of work to be done," said Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri, chair of the commission."

— "FL Dems pursuing a special session are not proposing an outright ban on assault weapons," by Florida Phoenix's Isaac Morgan and Danielle J. Brown

HOW A BILL BECOMES LAW — "DeSantis' aide first pitched October gas tax break, emails show," by Tampa Bay Times' Lawrence Mower: "Although GOP lawmakers took credit for cutting the gas tax this October, emails show that a top DeSantis aide suggested it first. Days after DeSantis publicly called for a five-month suspension of Florida's gas tax last year, his team drafted legislation to delay the break until October. Republican lawmakers said they decided on October because it's the month with the fewest tourists, although data doesn't support that claim. Lawmakers said they wanted to ensure Floridians, not tourists, would benefit from the tax break."

BIG APPLE — "Chelsea Piers in NYC should cancel event with Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis, say local LGBTQ pols," by New York Daily News' Shant Shahrigian: "Pride Month in the heart of Chelsea, a birthplace of the modern LGBTQ movement, is no time for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to come to the Big Apple, says a group of local lawmakers. State Sen. Brad Hoylman and two fellow LGBTQ Democrats are calling on Chelsea Piers to cancel an event at one of its venues set to feature the conservative firebrand next Sunday."

— " Gov. DeSantis signs fleet of bills on sexual misconduct and more," by Florida Politics' Renzo Downey

— "DeSantis could sign constitutional carry bill in 2023, " by The Floridian's Javier Manjarres

— "DeSantis scraps another Cabinet meeting, canceling state business; Fried calls it 'an insult' to Floridians," by Florida Phoenix's Michael Moline

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DATELINE D.C.

BURN PITS LEGISLATION — A bipartisan effort led by Sen. Marco Rubio and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) to aid veterans exposed to burn pits while serving in the military crossed an important procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday. The Senate voted 86-12 to end debate on the measure, putting it in a position to pass in the near future. Both Rubio and Gillibrand went on CNN to discuss the bill — which would create a presumption to have the federal government provide benefits to veterans exposed to the pits that were used during military operations in the Middle East and Asia. Despite some GOP opposition, Rubio told CNN's Jake Tapper that there is a "very strong argument for this presumption. You have people that are suffering from cancers way out of proportion from what they would as members of the general population, and the fact of the matter is, they'll never be able to prove that causation. In the meantime, their families are going bankrupt. They've had to quit their jobs to become full-time caregivers."

Sen. Marco Rubio.

Sen. Marco Rubio. | AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

CHARGED — "La. Man accused of threat against Fla. Congresswoman," by The Associated Press: "A 66-year-old Louisiana man faces charges for allegedly threatening a Florida congresswoman during a rage-filled telephone call to her Washington office, federal prosecutors said. Charles T. Germany, of Walker, was arrested on a charge of interstate transmission of a threat to injure another and given a conditional release Friday, said attorney J. Rodney Baum, who was appointed by the court to represent him. … According to the U.S. Department of Justice, Germany called Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy's office twice on May 27 from his home phone. He also disparaged President Joe Biden in both calls, authorities said."

— "Rick Scott channels Conor McGregor in 'Rescue America' reboot," by Florida Politics' A.G. Gancarski

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

PAYDAY — "Can Fort Lauderdale tunnel its way out of gridlock? City ready to make deal with Elon Musk team," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Susannah Bryan: "Two underground tunnels built for whisking tourists from downtown Fort Lauderdale to the beach in Teslas might cost $100 million — but no one knows for sure. To find out, Fort Lauderdale will need to pay Elon Musk's Boring Company $375,000 to investigate the true cost before moving ahead with the ambitious job of designing and building the underground tunnel system, currently dubbed the Las Olas Loop."

INDICTED — " 3 Fla. officers face manslaughter charge in stun gun death," by The Associated Press' Brendan Farrington: "Three Florida police officers were charged with manslaughter in the death of a man who was subdued with a stun gun last fall, a state attorney announced Tuesday. A grand jury in Okaloosa County indicted Crestview police officers Brandon Hardaway, William Johns and Evan Reynolds in the death of Calvin Wilks Jr., 40, who died in October the day after an encounter with police, State Attorney Ginger Bowden Madden said in a news release. The release said Madden was prohibited from commenting on evidence presented to the grand jury."

FALLOUT — Water district says $350M veto won't slow lake storage wells project, by POLITICO's Bruce Ritchie: The South Florida Water Management District said Tuesday a project designed to prevent discharges from Lake Okeechobee to avoid coastal algae blooms won't be delayed by Gov. Ron DeSantis' veto last week of a$350 million for the project. The details: District spokesman Sean Cooley told POLITICO the fiscal year 2022-23 state budget signed by DeSantis last Thursday includes $100 million for the aquifer storage wells even after the governor's veto of a separate line item.

Not everyone agrees — Hendry County Commissioner Ramon Iglesias said Tuesday that the $350 million vetoed still was needed despite the additional $100 million for the project in the budget. "At the pace we are going with funding it will take 2 decades," Iglesias wrote. Cooley responded that the district could not spend the $350 million on the project in the coming year and the district had requested only $50 million.

BREAKTHROUGH — " Police: DNA technology connects man to Florida serial rapes," by The Associated Press' Freida Frisaro: "Advanced DNA technology helped detectives link the cases of six women to a man accused of being the "pillowcase rapist" for a string of rapes back in the 1980s. Robert Koehler is currently jailed in neighboring Miami-Dade County, where he faces charges for assaulting a woman in the early '80s as well, Broward County Sheriff Gregory Tony said in a Tuesday morning news conference. Authorities believe Koehler, 62, may have committed 40 to 45 rapes, terrifying victims by breaking into their homes at night, the sheriff said."

— " Rare normalcy returns to trial of Florida school shooter," by The Associated Press' Terry Spencer

— " Voters won't get to decide if Broward should have an elected county mayor," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Lisa J. Huriash

— "Man who damaged LGBTQ streetscape sentenced to probation ," by The Associated Press

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— "Mayor is under fire for how he treats others. He says he's fixing a town that was a mess," by South Florida Sun Sentinel's Lisa J. Huriash: "A mayor who's been accused of mistreating some of the town's workers is saying conditions instead have improved since he took office three years ago. Pembroke Park Mayor Geoffrey Jacobs has been publicly clashing with the town's top staff, which has led to requests for resignations, calls for sanctions and accusations of sexism. But in the end, Jacobs said he's the one working to put the town back together. 'This was a s-------, absolute s-------, three years ago when I got here,' he said at a recent public meeting."

BIRTHDAYS: State Rep. Kevin Chambliss … Kathy Mears, chief of staff for Senate President Wilton Simpson … South Florida Sun Sentinel's Ron Hurtibise