Wednesday, June 8, 2022

🏦 Crypto on the Hill

Plus: Bullwhip effect | Wednesday, June 08, 2022
 
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Axios Markets
By Matt Phillips and Emily Peck · Jun 08, 2022

☀️💨 Hi, it's Emily! Today brings a lot of news about, well, hot air. Matt has the latest on natural gas prices, rising with the Texas heat. And Felix Salmon has the latest from D.C. If you scroll to the end, I have a non-market fixation for you. Let's do this!

Today's newsletter, edited by Kate Marino, is 944 words, 4 minutes.

 
 
1 big thing: Crypto legislation comes into focus
Illustration of a finger in a suit pointing at an 8-bit coin

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

It became clearer yesterday how Washington is likely to regulate crypto — even though the equally important question of when that's going to happen remains unanswered, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.

Why it matters: The one thing that crypto companies and crypto skeptics can agree on is that more regulation is needed, especially in the U.S. A new bill shows broadly what that regulation may look like. But don't hold your breath waiting for it to become law.

Driving the news: The bill is co-sponsored by two senators: Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democratic senator from New York, and Cynthia Lummis, a Republican from Wyoming.

  • But the real bipartisan nature of the bill comes from the fact that Gillibrand is on the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while Lummis is on the Banking Committee, which oversees the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Their bill concentrates oversight of crypto in the hands of the CFTC, despite the fact that SEC chair Gary Gensler has been at the forefront of attempts to regulate crypto assets as securities.

  • That's a win for the crypto industry, which would much prefer regulation from the smaller and more laissez-faire CFTC, even if the agency gets slightly bigger as a result.

Our thought bubble: "Most people on the Hill aren't paying much attention to crypto right now," says Axios' congressional reporter Alayna Treene, "even if lobbying firms are hot on it. Congress is currently preoccupied with high-priority legislation they want to pass before the midterms, and crypto isn't high on that list."

The bottom line: Gillibrand and Lummis, with this bill, have effectively narrowed the Overton window of what's likely in terms of crypto regulation. The regulations that get signed into law eventually won't look exactly like this, but they may bear a decent family resemblance, and it looks like the CFTC has gained the upper hand over the SEC.

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2. Catch up quick

💰Credit Suisse warns of second-quarter loss, considers more job cuts. (Bloomberg)

🌾 Looming food crisis due to war in Ukraine divides Biden administration. (WSJ)

🛒 Workers at Trader Joe's in Massachusetts file to hold first union election. (NYT)

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3. Coming soon to an electricity bill near you...
Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

With a heat wave baking Texas, residents have turned up their air conditioning in recent weeks — helping send natural gas prices to their highest level in 14 years, Matt writes.

Driving the news: U.S. natural gas futures soared yesterday, with benchmark futures prices — known as "Henry Hub" — rising 10% over the last week to close yesterday at $9.29.

Why it matters: Natural gas is the largest source of fuel for power production in the U.S., with a roughly 40% share.

  • Americans' utility bills are almost certainly going to rise sharply.

The big picture: The surge in U.S. natural gas prices is part of a much broader global story. With supplies from the world's largest producer — Russia — increasingly in doubt, American exports of natural gas to Europe have grown but production in the U.S. hasn't, leaving relatively low supplies.

The bottom line: Unless natural gas prices reverse fast, electricity bills are going to be putting upward pressure on inflation in the coming months.

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Why it matters: The Axios Pro newsroom has unparalleled access to industry contacts and resources. That expertise has been distilled in our first-ever industry report.

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4. The bullwhip cracks
Illustration of packages on a trucking assembly line

Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios

 

Two pieces of seemingly unrelated economic news out yesterday point to the same conclusion: The mismatch between supply and demand for physical goods is reversing as we speak, Axios' Neil Irwin writes.

Why it matters: Soaring demand and limited supply for big-ticket consumer goods have been a major source of inflationary pressure and public frustration over the last year. Things may finally be coming into balance.

Driving the news: Target, the retailer, said it will mark down prices to try to clear out inventory. That's bad for its shareholders — but a good sign for consumers.

  • Meanwhile, new international trade data that the Census published showed a narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit, largely due to lower imports of goods — reflecting both Chinese lockdowns and stabilizing American demand for stuff.

This appears to be an example of the "bullwhip effect," a phenomenon in supply chains in which modest swings in demand from consumers can set off much bigger fluctuations upstream.

By the numbers: The pattern is evident in retail sales data. Through the first four months of the year, sales were up a mere 2.9% at general merchandise retailers, 2.3% at furniture and home furnishings stores — and 25.4% at restaurants and bars.

  • The latest trade data is also consistent with this narrative, though with an asterisk. The overall trade deficit fell by more than $20 billion in April, and $13 billion of that was accounted for by a decrease in imports of goods.
  • That partly reflects COVID lockdowns in China that have constrained supply from America's second-biggest trading partner.

The bottom line: The U.S. economy has a long way to go to rebalance itself after the pandemic disruptions, but both the data and the anecdotes from major retailers suggest that in one important respect, it's happening.

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5. Quoted: Janet Yellen on "greedflation"
Tweet from @ylanmui about Yellen testimony on greedflation

Screenshot: @ylanmui (Twitter)

 

During Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's testimony before the Senate Finance Committee yesterday, Republican Senator Chuck Grassley pressed for her views on companies' role in causing inflation.

Why it matters: Progressives are still trying to make "greedflation" happen.

  • But the notion that greedy corporations are causing inflation by pushing up prices hasn't really caught on with most mainstream economists.

Our thought bubble, via Neil: Yellen is more of a believer in capitalism — and more a believer in a conventional macroeconomic story in which fixing inflation is the Fed's job — than many of her allies on the left might prefer.

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⚡️ 1 thing Emily loves: I'm obsessing over this Quartz story on how back in the 20th century the only way women could get into business school was in their capacity as future executive wives, where they'd get training on dancing and manners, among other things. It was good practice for the "wife screenings" women had to go through in order for their husbands to score promotions or new jobs(!).

  • "Wives could make or break their husband's career," a historian explains. 👀 Would love to hear if any of you have heard of — or lived through — similarly outmoded traditions in business. Reply to the email and let me know!
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