🚨 Inflation refresh

Plus: Infowars' gambit fails | Friday, June 03, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Mint   Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Jun 03, 2022 🎉 It's Friday, folks. What's more, it's Jobs Friday, the once-a-month economic fiesta that accompanies the government's data release on the job market. Economists think the numbers — due at 8:30am ET — will show roughly 320,000 new jobs were created in May, with the jobless rate falling to 3.5%. Nowadays, job numbers don't get much love, 'cause all the cool kids think inflation readings are the hottest reports to watch. On that topic, Emily starts us off with a deep dive into the all-important consumer price index. Today's newsletter, edited by Kate Marino, is 1,131 words, 4.5 minutes.     1 big thing: CPI makeover Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   The way Americans shop has changed radically since the mid-20th century, from main street to mall to big box to online. But the way the government analyzes all that shopping to come up with the consumer price index has hardly budged, Emily writes. Why it matters: In these times of rising prices, the monthly inflation measure is the most highly anticipated data drop coming out of Washington. Like Supreme, but for nerds. There's an effort underway to revamp the data collection process behind the CPI. And it couldn't come soon enough. The backstory: Released monthly by the federal government's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the index measures the change in the price of a basket of commonly used goods and services. CPI figures are used in all kinds of important ways like making adjustments to Social Security payments, rent prices and wages; the Treasury even issues bonds indexed to inflation. Driving the news: A 146-page report sponsored by the BLS lays out a plan to bring the CPI into the 21st century. More than two years in the making, the report was released last month by a panel of experts — prominent economists, policymakers and statisticians — assembled by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. "This is a fundamental change in the whole framework for thinking about how to measure inflation," said Daniel Sichel, the chair of the panel and an economist at Wellesley College who spent 20 years at the Federal Reserve. State of play: This report was commissioned before the pandemic, but COVID only amplified its urgency. Almost overnight, consumers stopped spending money on services — dining out, plane tickets, etc. — and everyone was hot for new laptops, home renovation and whatever else they could order on Amazon. The balance of goods in the average American's monthly shopping basket changed a lot — but the CPI's basket didn't instantly adjust, leading to some mismeasurement of overall inflation, Sichel says. Details: The changes recommended by the panel fall into a few broad categories (more on that below). What's next: The BLS already made one change. Starting in January 2023 it will shorten the timeframe between updates to the weights in the basket. As for the rest, it's a work in progress. The agency has said it aimed to use nontraditional data sources by 2024, and generally agreed with the panel on the need use to use more alt data, in a blog post. The bottom line: As the report says, the case for modernizing the CPI is "urgent, compelling and feasible."     2. Bring in big data Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   The panel tasked with modernizing the CPI makes a host of recommendations — some involving tweaks to the way BLS measures tricky things like housing and health care costs, Emily writes. Two proposals look particularly urgent: Using new data sources: Right now the BLS assesses the prices of goods using surveys, but the authors of the report recommend pulling in big data. Other countries are already doing this, automating data scrapes from big retailers or credit card companies, for example. This is critical because response rates to these surveys have plummeted in recent years. Measuring CPI by income group: Economists are starting to consider the idea that folks at the lower end of the income scale face higher rates of inflation. It makes intuitive sense. The less money you make, the higher percentage of your income goes to food and fuel — where prices are skyrocketing right now. The report suggests looking at a way to calculate different CPIs for different income groups — to gain a better understanding of how this works and, possibly, to change the way the government makes inflation adjustments to Social Security and other types of benefits.     3. Catch up quick ⬇️ Musk wants to cut 10% of Tesla's jobs. (Reuters) 👀 Inflation in Turkey hits a record high. (FT) 🗳 Shareholders put abortion rights on proxy votes. (WSJ)     A message from Mint Lower your bills and save $150     Your monthly bills like internet, cable and phone are negotiable. Here's how: Mint's new bill negotiation feature helps you spot places you could save. On average, Minters could save $150 with Bill Negotiation. Savings can vary based on provider and service. Join them and start saving.     4. Gas is headed for $5 a gallon nationwide Data: FactSet; Axios Visuals Wholesale prices for gasoline keep surging, meaning the angst Americans are feeling at the pump will last, Matt writes. Why it matters: Gasoline prices are key inflation indicators to the American public and a headwind on household budgets. Driving the news: Benchmark futures prices for gasoline hit a new high of $4.19 per gallon yesterday, as the Department of Energy reported that gasoline supplies last week hit their lowest level this year. State of play: Unless those futures prices come down quick, we're about to blow past last week's record retail gas price of $4.71 a gallon, per AAA. How it works: The futures contract is the price for a kind of fuel known as RBOB, which stands for "Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending." Basically, it's "unfinished" gas that is then blended with ethanol at gasoline distribution hubs and then delivered to stations where it's sold on to gas-hungry drivers. The bottom line: The difference between futures prices and national average retail prices for a gallon of regular has averaged roughly 97 cents over the last three years. If that relationship holds, that means we're likely to see average gasoline prices of about $5.15 a gallon quite soon. And yes, Californians, we know you've been there for a while.   Share Axios and earn rewards If you like this newsletter, your friends may, too! Refer your friends and get free Axios swag when they sign up. Be a good friend and share   5. Alex Jones' bankruptcy wars are over Alex Jones in 2018. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images   Alex Jones' gambit to use the bankruptcy court to shield himself from litigation damages has come to end after less than two months, Axios' Kate Marino writes. Driving the news: The embattled right-wing talk show host and hawker of wellness supplements has withdrawn the bankruptcy petitions of three companies linked to his Infowars empire. The big picture: Companies often file to utilize bankruptcy's "automatic stay" (or freeze) of litigation, and consolidate and settle pricey damages ... think Purdue Pharma with its opioid liabilities and the wildfire-related claims against PG&E. Jones is facing the prospect of monetary damages stemming from lawsuits brought by families whose children were murdered in the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting, which Jones repeatedly insisted was a hoax. His followers took to harassing the families. But his bankruptcy strategy was different from the likes of Purdue and PG&E. If successful, it would have set a new precedent for how companies could wield the bankruptcy code against litigation opponents, as we wrote about yesterday in more detail. What they're saying: "From the beginning, it was clear that Alex Jones concocted this bankruptcy scheme to avoid facing the Sandy Hook families before a jury. The dismissal of this bankruptcy at this juncture only confirms it," Avi Moshenberg, a lawyer for the Sandy Hook families, tells Axios. What's next: A damages trial will go forward in Connecticut state court in September, as the WSJ reports. Jones may face much higher penalties than the $10 million he offered in the bankruptcy deal. The bottom line: Jones tried to use a new rule in the U.S. bankruptcy code in a way it wasn't intended for. It didn't work. Go deeper.     A message from Mint The pandemic's impact on personal budgets     The budget categories with the biggest increases in target amounts from 2020 to 2021 were home supplies (+9%) and child care (+8%), according to Mint. Entertainment (-1.25%) and public transportation (-6%) saw the biggest declines. Download the Mint app to see where your spending goes.   Like this email style and format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: