Friday, June 3, 2022

🕯️ Axios AM: Biden's new watchword

Plus: Winning spelling word | Friday, June 03, 2022
 
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Axios AM
By Mike Allen · Jun 03, 2022

Happy Friday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,474 words ... 5½ mins. Edited by Noah Bressner.

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1 big thing: Biden officials bearish on gun deal
President Biden spoke last night with the backdrop of 56 candles, representing gun violence in all 50 states and six territories. Photo: Evan Vucci/AP

White House officials privately doubt Congress will pass anything substantial to limit guns.

  • Why it matters: Biden aides aren't under any delusion that a presidential speech will change deeply entrenched and structural obstruction on Capitol Hill.

Biden — stymied after mass shootings in Buffalo, Uvalde and Tulsa — used the word "enough" 11 times during a 17-minute address to the nation on gun violence last night:

  • "How many more innocent American lives must be taken before we say 'enough'? Enough! ... Enough. Enough. ... Enough. ... Enough. ... Enough. Enough. Enough! ... My fellow Americans, enough! Enough.  It's time for each of us to do our part. It's time to act."

The big picture: Since the Uvalde elementary school killings 10 days ago, Democrats have tried to give Senate Republicans the political space to do something on guns, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.

  • The goal has been to break the fever. Build some momentum. Help the country heal. "Enough" is the watchword — expect to hear that as a rising rallying cry across the nation.

Between the lines: The president didn't slam the door on bipartisan talks, but he didn't make it any easier for Republicans to buck their base and meet Democrats halfway.

  • If GOP senators are looking for any excuse to bail on negotiations, the president gave it to them. He called for specifics, including an assault weapons ban, that are nonstarters: "We need to ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines."

What we're watching: The question for Republican senators is how offended they decide to get about Biden's political rhetoric.

  • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a key player in the talks, tweeted for Biden to bring it on: "I stand ready to vote on ALL the proposals mentioned by President Biden tonight and encourage the Democratic Leader to bring them forward." Translation: He would vote no.
  • Then Graham softened his tone: "I also stand ready to work across the aisle to find common ground - something that was absent from President Biden's address to the nation."

The bottom line: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) has been telling folks he's more hopeful and optimistic based on his conversations with Republicans. But the Biden team remains skeptical.

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2. War in Ukraine may be just beginning

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits the Kharkiv region on Sunday. Photo: Ukrainian Presidency via Getty Images

 

Today is Day 100 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine — with no end to the bloodshed in sight. Neither side is poised for a decisive victory, Axios World author Dave Lawler reports.

  • Vladimir Putin failed to take Kyiv. Now he's now moving toward his stated goal of "liberating" the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Experts say Ukraine is unlikely to force Russian forces out of the country entirely.

Neither side is inclined to lay down its arms, and the battlefield advantage could soon swing back toward Ukraine.

Data: Institute for the Study of War; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

Russian forces have reportedly taken most of the key city of Severodonetsk in the past few days — surprisingly quick progress given Ukraine's previous success in urban warfare.

  • Russia is turning towns to rubble before taking them — and is inflicting heavy casualties on Ukraine's best-trained forces, which are concentrated in the Donbas.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers per day. Russia now controls 20% of Ukraine's territory.

What we're hearing: Many military analysts believe Russia's ability to push forward will be exhausted relatively soon, potentially giving Ukraine — which will be able to pull in reserve forces and western weaponry — an opportunity to counterattack and reclaim territory as the summer drags on.

  • But it's also possible Putin will again expand his targets beyond the Donbas after his initial offensives on Kyiv and other cities collapsed. Russian forces seem to be adapting to those earlier failures.

The bottom line: Zelensky has shown no inclination to accept a deal that cedes more territory to Russia. Putin has been unwilling to talk to Zelensky at all.

  • It looks likely that a war that has lasted 100 days could drag on for hundreds more.

Share this story ... Explore an Axios timeline, "100 days that rocked the globe."

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3. World attention wanes
Data: NewsWhip. Chart: Axios Visuals

There has been a 22-fold decrease in social media interactions (likes, comments, shares) on news articles published about Ukraine between the first week of the war and the most recent week, Axios' Neal Rothschild reports from NewsWhip data.

  • Why it matters: A protracted conflict will reverberate through the global economy. World leaders and international organizations are warning the global food supply could be devastated by continued fighting, Russian blockades and Western sanctions.

Share this graphic.

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A message from Walmart

Walmart Academy launches worldwide
 
 

The Walmart Academy is launching globally to 2.3 million associates, bringing together existing curriculum and new leadership and well-being courses.

Learn about Walmart's commitment to supporting associates in the jobs they have today and preparing them for the jobs of the future.

 
 
4. 🐝 Winning word
Harini Logan celebrates with her family last night. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP

Harini Logan, 14 — an eighth-grader from San Antonio — won the Scripps National Spelling Bee in Oxon Hill, Md., last night by spelling 21 words correctly during a 90-second spell-off.

  • Her winning word: "moorhen" — the female of the red grouse. (Of course!)

Harini, a crowd favorite for her poise and positivity, wins more than $50,000 in cash and prizes, AP reports.

Photo: Alex Brandon/AP

Kirsten Tiffany Santos, 11, of Richmond, Texas, during yesterday's finals.

  • The last fully in-person bee was three years ago.

Keep reading.

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5. ⛽ Gas heads for $5/gal.
Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals

Wholesale prices for gasoline keep surging, meaning the angst Americans are feeling at the pump will last, Matt Phillips writes for Axios Markets.

  • Why it matters: Gasoline prices are key inflation indicators to the American public, and a headwind on household budgets.

Benchmark futures prices for gasoline hit a new high of $4.19 per gallon yesterday. The Energy Department reported gas supplies last week hit their lowest level this year.

  • Unless those futures prices come down quick, we're about to blow the AAA's current average national retail gas price of regular gas — $4.76.

The bottom line: The difference between futures prices and national average retail prices for a gallon of regular has averaged roughly 97¢ over the past three years.

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6. ☀️ West faces outages
Data: U.S. Department of Energy; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

California's long-lasting, severe drought will have major ramifications for the cost and reliability of electricity this summer, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes from a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

  • The drought's depletion of California's large reservoirs is likely to strain hydroelectric plants to the point where some may have to be shut down.

A recent report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which monitors the grid and reduces reliability risks, found an "elevated" danger of power disruptions in the West this summer due to the combined impacts of heat and drought.

  • Wildfires will cause additional challenges, the report found, from threatening interstate transmission lines to sending so much smoke into the sky that it reduces the output from solar installations.

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7. China-linked harassment targets female Asian journalists
A person under a computer mouse illustration

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

 

A network of Twitter accounts previously linked to the Chinese government is targeting female journalists of Chinese heritage who work for western news outlets in a campaign of online harassment, Axios China author Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian writes from a new report.

  • Why it matters: The campaign appears to be part of the Chinese government's efforts to silence criticism of Beijing abroad through coercion, intimidation and retaliation.

What's happening: In the past few years, and with growing assertiveness since 2019, the Chinese government has taken to Twitter, YouTube, Facebook and other western social media platforms that are banned in China to promote state propaganda and to engage in increasingly sophisticated disinformation and harassment campaigns.

  • In recent weeks, the Twitter accounts of The New Yorker's Jiayang Fan, the Economist's Alice Su, the N.Y. Times' Muyi Xiao, and other journalists and China analysts — mostly female, mostly of ethnic Chinese heritage and largely based outside of China — have been flooded with thousands of tweets criticizing them as traitors and accusing them of "smearing" China.

Keep reading.

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8. ☕ 1 for the road: Coffee that tastes like candy
An illustration of a coffee bean in a candy wrapper

Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios

 

We told you earlier this week about the benefits of coffee, the healthy indulgence. Now this twist from Jennifer A. Kingson in Axios What's Next:

The market for fun-flavored creamers and beans — Almond Joy! S'mores! Strawberry cheesecake! — is exploding as we bring our Dunkin' Donuts and Starbucks taste buds to the living room.

  • Why it matters: American coffee consumption is at a two-decade high, per the National Coffee Association. More of us are now drinking it at all hours of the day, sometimes instead of a sugary snack.

Coffee consumption after breakfast is up 15% since last July, the coffee association said.

  • Young people are lapping it up, stoking demand for sweet, nostalgia-oriented products — including Fruity Pebbles creamer.

Keep reading.

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A message from Walmart

Walmart Academy supports global associate growth and advancement
 
 

The global Walmart Academy builds on the company's $1 billion investment in U.S. associate training and development. The program trains associates in:

  • On-the-job skills.
  • Skills for career advancement.
  • Leadership abilities.

Learn about Walmart's dedication to growth and opportunity.

 

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