Saturday, June 25, 2022

💡 Axios AM: New war between states

Plus: Vinyl bonanza | Saturday, June 25, 2022
 
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Axios AM
By Mike Allen · Jun 25, 2022

Hello, Saturday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,495 words ... 5½ mins. Edited by TuAnh Dam.

 
 
1 big thing: New war between states
Illustration of a red caduceus crossed with a blue caduceus.

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

 

Yesterday's ruling overturning Roe makes legal and political wars among the states inevitable, Axios managing editor for politics Margaret Talev writes.

  • Look for legislation that would allow criminal charges — or lawsuits — against providers or other third parties who try to help women gain access to abortions in states where they're banned.

President Biden said this morning: "The decision is implemented by states. My administration is going to focus on how they administer it, and whether or not they don't violate other laws — like deciding not to allow people to cross states lines to get public health services."

  • "And we're going to take actions to protect women's rights and reproductive health."
In L.A., green smoke rises as protesters march northbound on the 110 Freeway after the ruling. Photo: David McNew/Getty Images

3 takeaways from Axios Supreme Court maven Sam Baker:

1. Abortion immediately became illegal in several states. Clinics in many parts of the country closed their doors as soon as the ruling came down.

  • Clinics in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming have either shut their doors or been instructed by state officials to do so.

2. The final ruling is extremely similar to the leaked draft Politico obtained last month, and its core reasoning didn't budge.

  • The Constitution can be interpreted to protect some rights that it doesn't specifically mention, Justice Samuel Alito wrote — but only in rare cases, and only when they are deeply entrenched in the history at the time of the founding.
  • Details on changes.

3. The conservatives are divided. The core holding is the core holding — the federal right to an abortion is gone. But the six conservative justices handed down a total of four opinions to articulate the differences in their thinking.

  • Chief Justice John Roberts wrote a separate opinion to say the court had gone too far, and should not have overturned its precedents entirely.
  • Justice Clarence Thomas said the court should go even further, and consider overturning precedents that protect rights to contraception and same-sex marriage.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh weighed in to say that while he did not think yesterday's ruling went too far, he did not share Thomas' view of how it should affect other precedents.

  • "[M]ay a State bar a resident of that State from traveling to another State to obtain an abortion?" Kavanaugh wrote. "In my view, the answer is no based on the constitutional right to interstate travel."
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2. 🗳️ Pence, Trump diverge
Illustration of Mike Pence and Donald Trump in profile facing away from each other.

Photo Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photo: NurPhoto, Ira L. Black/Corbis/Getty Images

 

For months, Mike Pence's unequivocal public and private embrace of the impending Roe decision contrasted with former President Trump's private concerns about the political risk to Republicans if abortion rights were overturned in a midterm year, Axios' Jonathan Swan reports.

  • Why it matters: The former vice president is preparing to challenge Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. Abortion is one of the key policy issues on which Pence has sought to define himself as more unabashedly conservative than the former president.

As soon as the Supreme Court announced its decision yesterday, Pence's team was ready to be first out of the gate with an instant reaction.

  • His organization quickly released a video celebrating the decision and Pence's role in making it happen. Nowhere in the video is Trump mentioned by name.
  • He called for a fight to stop abortion "in every state in the land" — an effort to entirely eradicate abortion.

Trump's initial response was strikingly different. Usually eager to claim credit for himself, he told Fox News that "God made the decision," when asked whether he played a role in Roe's reversal, after appointing three conservative justices to the Supreme Court.

  • The former president later issued a statement taking credit for the decision, calling it the "biggest WIN for LIFE in a generation" and "only made possible because I delivered everything as promised."

Behind the scenes: Soon after Politico published its explosive leak last month of the Supreme Court's draft decision, Trump told confidants the ruling could be bad for Republicans in an election year.

  • At least two other Trump advisers agreed with him that the decision could fire up Democrats in November, especially suburban women. The New York Times was first to report Trump's private comments.

Between the lines: Another reason for Trump's reluctance to praise the Supreme Court is because he's still bitter at the conservative justices for refusing to take up his challenges to President Biden's victory.

  • Trump also privately said that if he took a victory lap after the leak and before the Supreme Court finalized its decision, the justices might change their minds, the source added.

The bottom line: Trump is deeply cynical and suspicious of the courts in general — and even of the Supreme Court, which he's defined more than any president since Ronald Reagan.

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3. U.S. warns: Violent extremism "likely"
In Washington, the building housing the National Press Club boarded up yesterday. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The Department of Homeland Security intelligence office said in a memo yesterday that domestic violent extremism is "likely" in response to the ruling, Axios' Stef Kight reports.

  • The threat will remain for weeks as states changes abortion laws, the memo says.

"Federal and state government officials — including judges — and facilities probably are most at risk for violence in response to the decision," the memo says.

  • "Both reproductive and family advocacy healthcare facilities likely will continue to remain primary targets."
  • "Faith-based organizations across the United States continue to report numerous criminal incidents against religious institutions connected to abortion rights."
Data: National Abortion Federation. Chart: Nicki Camberg/Axios

Abortion-related attacks were already on the rise, Axios' Oriana Gonzalez writes.

  • Assaults directed at abortion clinic staff and patients increased 128% in 2021 compared to 2020, according to a report from the National Abortion Federation. Keep reading.

Earlier this month, more than two dozen Catholic organizations, anti-abortion centers and other conservative groups asked the Justice Department to investigate and prosecute attacks on churches, pregnancy resource centers and Supreme Court justices. Keep reading.

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4. 📷 Living history
Photo: Nathan Howard/Getty Images

Crowds quickly formed outside the fenced-off Supreme Court.

  • The bulletin at 10:11 a.m. ET: WASHINGTON (AP) — Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, allowing states to ban abortions.
Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP

White House domestic policy adviser Susan Rice (right) and other staffers stand on the stairs off the Cross Hall as they wait for President Biden to speak about the decision.

  • Biden said: "This fall, Roe is on the ballot. Personal freedoms are on the ballot. The right to privacy, liberty, equality, they're all on the ballot."
Photo: Mary F. Calvert/Reuters

Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters shortly after the ruling: "This cruel ruling is outrageous and heart‑wrenching. But make no mistake, again, it's all on the ballot in November."

Photo: Rick Bowmer/AP

Abortion-rights rally at the Utah State Capitol in Salt Lake City.

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5. 🔮 What's next: Half of states could ban abortion
Screenshot: ABC News

After fighting over Roe v. Wade for decades, advocacy organizations on both sides will now pivot to state-by-state legislative battles.

  • 26 states now are "certain or likely" to ban abortion, Axios' Oriana Gonzalez writes from Guttmacher Institute research.
  • At least 13 states have "trigger laws" to make abortion illegal shortly after the ruling.

The other side: At least 16 states + D.C. have enacted laws that automatically keep abortion legal even without Roe.

🧠 Axios Explains: Where abortion will be illegal with Roe overturned — including our chart showing the status in 13 states with "trigger laws."

  • State by state: AP's 15,000-word, 50-state (+ D.C.) roundup, with a "What's next" for each.
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6. 🖊️ Biden signs gun bill
Screenshot: CNN

President Biden this morning signed the toughest gun bill in 28 years, saying the message after shootings is always: "For God's sake, do something."

  • "Well today, we did," he said before leaving for Europe.

Biden called it "a monumental day" — and added that, "God willing," the law will save lives.

  • He said a White House celebration with members of Congress will be held next month.
Photo: Jim Bourg/Reuters

The House passed the bill 234-193 yesterday, with 14 Republicans joining all Democrats.

Go deeper: Section by section 5-pager on the bill.

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7. 🇨🇦 Hot post-Roe search
Data: Google Trends. Chart: Axios Visuals

Google searches for "how to move to Canada from U.S." surged after yesterday's ruling, Axios' Stef Kight and Jacque Schrag report from Google Trends data.

  • Why it matters: Abortion is legal at all stages of pregnancy in Canada.

"How to become a Canadian citizen" spiked 550%.

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8. 🎵 Vinyl-makers struggle with demand
Vinyl records are stamped at United Record Pressing in Nashville. Photo: Mark Humphrey/AP

With vinyl sales soaring in the U.S., dozens of record-pressing factories have been built to try to meet demand — and it's still not enough, AP's David Sharp reports.

  • Demand for vinyl records has been growing in double-digits for 15 years. With music tours canceled because of COVID, music lovers began snapping up record albums at an even faster pace.

A new generation is buying turntables and albums — and cassettes, too.

  • A new generation of artists — including Adele, Ariana Grande, Harry Styles — is embracing vinyl.
Photo: Mark Humphrey/AP

How your record starts: This mix of colored vinyl pellets will be made into records at United Record Pressing in Nashville.

  • Colored pellets are used by themselves or in combinations to create colorful records.
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