Tuesday, May 31, 2022

💡 A questionable legacy

Plus: Ruble's too strong | Tuesday, May 31, 2022
 
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By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · May 31, 2022

😎 ☀️🏖 Welcome back! It's unofficially summer.

Today's newsletter, edited by Kate Marino, is 968 words, 4 minutes.

 
 
1 big thing: Jack Welch's questionable legacy
Cover of The Man Who Broke Capitalism

Book cover: Simon & Schuster

 

Once dubbed the best manager of the 20th century, former General Electric chief executive Jack Welch takes the blame for much of what's wrong with businesses in the 21st, in a new book by New York Times business reporter David Gelles released today.

Why it matters: Welch retired from GE in 2001 and died in 2020, but his style of leadership lives on at some of the biggest companies in the U.S., Gelles explains in "The Man Who Broke Capitalism."

Welch's legacy turns up everywhere in the corporate culture, from celebrity CEO worship — Elon Musk's Twitter feed carries on his legacy — to outrageous pay packages to a relentless focus on shareholders and stock buybacks at the expense of long-term innovation and worker well-being, Emily writes.

  • "Jack is the apotheosis of everything that is wrong with capitalism over the last 50 years," Gelles said in an interview with Axios' Felix Salmon and me over the weekend.

Details: Downsizing and outsourcing were a key part of Welch's business strategy. He laid off more than 250,000 employees during his two-decade tenure — earning the nickname "Neutron Jack," which he hated.

  • "Before Welch, employees were considered a company's greatest asset," Gelles writes.
  • His policy of stack ranking, where the bottom 10% of performers were fired annually, established a cutthroat "Survivor"-like culture long emulated by other firms, most infamously Microsoft.
  • Welch's focus on GE's share price meant ensuring the company met its targets even if that entailed doctoring the books.
  • Wall Street loved him, GE's stock, and basically any executive he worked with. His proteges went on to run many Fortune 500 firms, including Albertson's, Home Depot, Honeywell and Chrysler, often replicating Welchism but without the financial success.

One of the more damning connections Gelles draws in his book is from Welch to Boeing.

  • Since 1997 the aviation company was run by three Welch proteges who deliberately shifted the company's culture from one that was always "engineering first" to one focused on the bottom line.
  • Ultimately, that commitment would come to haunt the company, writes Gelles, leading to two deadly plane crashes in 2019 of its 737 Max, which killed 346 people.
  • Last year, Boeing agreed to pay more than $2.5 billion to resolve criminal fraud charges related to the Max. "Boeing's employees chose the path of profit over candor," said a Justice Department official at the time.

Yes, but: Welch's defenders say he turned around a "bloated institution," doing the unpopular work of making it lean and profitable.

My thought bubble: One of the most bedrock pieces of Welchism — the idea that a company owes little to its employees — seems passe at a moment when labor shortages are pushing up wages and benefits.

  • It remains to be seen if the business world returns to the status quo, as the economy cools off.

The bottom line: Welch's legacy ultimately helped destroy General Electric, a former giant of American industrialism. A combination of scandals, terrible deal-making and the financial crisis drove the company into a ditch.

  • Soon, it won't exist anymore current leadership plans on dividing the company into three parts.
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2. Catch up quick

🛢 European Union leaders agreed to block most Russian oil imports. (Axios)

🏦 Biden pledges to back Fed; will meet with Powell later today. (WSJ) (Axios)

📈 Eurozone inflation hits record 8.1% in May. (FT)

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3. Ruble ploy
Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Russian government's drastic interventions to support the ruble have helped artificially prop up the currency — so much that they'd now like to walk that back a tad, Axios' Kate Marino writes.

Why it matters: Putin has boasted that the soaring ruble means the Russian economy is triumphing over the West's sanctions.

  • But the situation is a bit of smoke and mirrors: The World Bank forecasts that Russia's economy will contract by 11% this year, at a time when Moscow's machinations to prop up the currency are doing some damage.
  • A too-strong ruble hurts exporters' revenue, as well as the tax intake denominated in foreign currency but spent in rubles, as Bloomberg has reported.

State of play: The Central Bank of Russia cut rates more than expected late last week, to 11% from 14% — and said it could cut further. It also eased some of the capital controls (rules that limit foreign currency flows in and out of a country) that had forced a higher-than-usual amount of domestic money to sit in rubles.

  • In response to those moves, the ruble shed 15% last week — but it recovered some of those losses yesterday and still sits around a two-year high relative to the dollar.

Flashback: After sanctions initially tanked the ruble, Russia imposed a litany of measures to rescue it — including hiking rates to an eye-popping 20%.

The bottom line: Emergency measures can only do so much to put a façade on a suffering economy.

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4. What we're watching this week
Data: BLS; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

This week we'll find out whether the labor market that Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has dubbed "unsustainably hot" is cooling off when the jobs report is released on Friday, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

Why it matters: It's an update on the Fed's tall order: Chill demand (without tanking the jobs market completely) to moderate wage gains and soaring inflation.

  • The payrolls report out Friday is expected to show employers added 350,000 jobs in May. Those healthy gains would be the fewest since April 2021.
  • Also, watch for new data on April job openings out on Wednesday — a key gauge of employer's thirst for workers. It's forecast to back off from the record high hit the prior month.

The bottom line: The fresh jobs data comes as the economy is facing somewhat of an identity crisis. Robust demand for workers has been a consistent bright spot overshadowed by decades-high inflation that has Americans more unhappy about the economy than they have been in years.

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