Tuesday, May 17, 2022

3 big storylines to watch in today's primaries

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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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The White House and Amazon's Jeff Bezos squared off on Monday over the Biden administration's handling of inflation. | John Locher/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

WHAT WAPO REPORTERS WERE SLACKING ABOUT MONDAY — The Twitter spat between President JOE BIDEN and Amazon founder/WaPo owner JEFF BEZOS spilled over into yet another day, as they battled "over taxes and inflation," as Reuters' Trevor Hunnicutt wrote.

  • Bezos' latest response to the White House: "Look, a squirrel! This is the White House's statement about my recent tweets. They understandably want to muddy the topic. They know inflation hurts the neediest the most. But unions aren't causing inflation and neither are wealthy people. Remember the Administration tried their best to add another $3.5 TRILLION to federal spending. They failed, but if they had succeeded, inflation would be even higher than it is today, and inflation today is at a 40-year high."

PRIMARY DAY — Today is one of the most consequential primary days of the year, with nominating contests in five states — Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania — that will tell us a great deal about the direction of the two parties.

There are three major storylines that continue to dominate the 2022 primary season:

  1. DONALD TRUMP's grip on the GOP
  1. Progressive challenges to Biden-like Democratic centrists
  1. The rise of anti-democratic and extremist candidates

All three storylines collide in today's most-watched state: Pennsylvania.

The best way to understand the chaotic GOP primaries for Senate and governor here is to remember, as Charlie Mahtesian carefully lays out , that "[t]here are few states as deeply infected as Pennsylvania by Donald Trump's election fraud lie." Most of the major GOP candidates were involved personally with trying to overturn the 2020 election results, attended the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in Washington or have fashioned themselves into election deniers.

The GOP Senate primary has once again become a battle between Trump and the Club for Growth. When Trump's first pick, SEAN PARNELL, dropped out of the race after his estranged wife accused him of choking her, Trump backed MEHMET OZ over financier DAVID MCCORMICK, who is married to former Trump aide DINA POWELL and attracted some well-known Trump advisers, such as HOPE HICKS . As Oz and McCormick spent months tearing the bark off of each other, an opportunity emerged for the Club for Growth: KATHY BARNETTE, a far-right candidate whose appeal to MAGA voters has translated into late momentum. (She's either surging to victory, or peaked a little too soon.)

Trump won his last fight against the Club in Ohio, where J.D. VANCE prevailed over JOSH MANDEL. WaPo's Josh Dawsey and Isaac Arnsdorf report that the Club's PAC then decided to send Trump a message by dumping a ton of late money behind Barnette.

Related: NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) has called Barnette "twice in recent days," NBC's Dasha Burns scoops.

Trump has done everything he can to stop Barnette in the final days, but he may have muddied things — or perhaps hedged his bets — by endorsing DOUG MASTRIANO, the longtime frontrunner in the gubernatorial primary, just three days ago. Steve Shepard notes that Barnette and Mastriano, both of whom were in Washington to protest on Jan. 6, "have been running as a loosely joined ticket for months."

Charlie adds that "Republican strategists and officials [are] nervous and despairing" over the "prospect that the party might blow its chances in a key industrial swing state this fall by nominating far-right election deniers."

GOP anger over Mastriano's lead in the gubernatorial primary has some calling for state party Chair LAWRENCE TABAS' head for not stopping him, Holly Otterbein and Zach Montellaro report. Prominent GOP figures are thinking about supporting Democrat JOSH SHAPIRO if Mastriano is their party's nominee. "Some Republicans fear the already bubbling complaints could erupt into a full-blown intraparty battle should Mastriano lock down the nomination on Tuesday."

Multiple Republican Senate campaigns are readying for a recount if the election ends up being as close as polls suggest, Natalie Allison and Holly Otterbein report. Meanwhile, Trump recorded a robocall for Oz that, among other things, blasts Barnette for supporting an Obama family statue in D.C's Lincoln Park in 2020.

In the Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN, a favorite of progressives, has had a sizable lead in the polls over moderate Rep. CONOR LAMB. But Fetterman is not expected to attend what is likely to be his victory party in Pittsburgh tonight because he is recovering from a stroke he had last week.

A Fetterman general election against Oz, McCormick or Barnette will likely be one of the most intensely covered Senate races in the country. Expect Fetterman, a Harvard grad who has become an anti-fashion icon favoring hoodies and shorts, and his wife, GISELE, to be the subject of countless profiles. Related read: Natalie Fertig on how Fetterman's longtime support for legalizing marijuana could play in the general election.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH: 

— In North Carolina, Trump-endorsed Rep. TED BUDD leads former Gov. PAT MCCRORY in polls to succeed retiring Sen. RICHARD BURR;

— Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN seeks to avoid a runoff against state Sen. CHUCK EDWARDS, who is backed by many N.C. GOP officials, including Sen. THOM TILLIS.

— In Oregon, Rep. KURT SCHRADER, a centrist and seven-term Democratic incumbent, faces a progressive challenger, JAIME MCLEOD-SKINNER.

— In Idaho, Trump's candidate, Lt. Gov. JANICE MCGEACHIN is primarying GOP Gov. BRAD LITTLE . McGeachin is arguably the most extreme candidate Trump has endorsed this year. She wants to ban abortion in cases of rape, incest and the health of the mother, and said on Facebook that the governor's refusal to do so means he's with the "radical leftists and satanists." She posed with militia members outside her government office in 2019. She made pre-taped remarks at a white nationalist event in Florida in February.

The few polls in the race have shown Little with a two-to-one lead over McGeachin, so most observers predict this will be a rare Trump loss on Tuesday. But the threat has terrified the traditional wing of Idaho's Republican Party, which is among the most conservative in the country. The Seattle Times says the race "may serve as a bellwether for the strength of extremist politics in the Pacific Northwest."

Polls close in Kentucky at 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. Eastern Time, North Carolina at 7:30 p.m., Pennsylvania at 8 p.m., Idaho at 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. and Oregon at 11 p.m. (Kentucky and Idaho are split across multiple time zones.)

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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BIDEN IN BUFFALO — When Biden was mulling over whether to run for president, it was the white supremacist march and violence in Charlottesville, Va., that sealed the deal — the event that incited the "battle for the soul of this nation" framework that came to be the animating rationale for his candidacy.

Today, Biden travels to Buffalo, a city still reeling from a mass shooting that left 10 people dead over the weekend at the hands of an alleged gunman who has espoused white supremacist and antisemitic views, and advocated a racist idea known as "replacement theory," which falsely holds that white Americans are being "replaced" by non-white immigrants in a scheme led by powerful elites.

As Biden speaks, he is expected to call on Congress to pass new gun control laws . A White House official says that Biden will "call this despicable act for what it is: terrorism motivated by a hateful and perverse ideology that tears at the soul of our nation," and "call on all Americans to … reject the lies of racial animus that radicalize, divide us and [which] led to the act of racist violence."

But there's one thing that many Democrats and civil rights advocates privately tell us they want the president to do — and that they're unsure whether he will : call out prominent political and media figures who have spread the racist beliefs that law enforcement says led to the massacre.

— On Capitol Hill, seeing no hope of passing gun control legislation, some congressional Dems are emphasizing the racist nature of the attack, linking the ideas to their prominent far-right promulgators, Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report. Dems' rhetorical approach "signals a shift in how they respond to gun violence." Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER "made clear that the most urgent response needs to be to 'oppose the old poisons of racism and white supremacy that have been with us far too long,'" He blamed "hard-right MAGA Republicans." Other Dems, such as Sen. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio), attacked TUCKER CARLSON by name.

— It's not just Democrats who are pointing the finger at Republicans for mainstreaming "great replacement" conspiracy theories. "The House GOP leadership has enabled white nationalism, white supremacy, and anti-semitism," Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) tweeted on Monday. Related reads: "Cheney says GOP has 'enabled' racism. Here's what she's talking about," by WaPo's Aaron Blake … "Racist Attack Spotlights Stefanik's Echo of Replacement Theory," by NYT's Annie Karni

On Monday, in her first press conference as White House press secretary, KARINE JEAN-PIERRE was asked repeatedly why the administration wouldn't call out by name the prominent figures who've advocated the racist conspiracy theories espoused by the alleged Buffalo shooter. Her response: The White House is going to focus on the substance of the racism, rather than those espousing it. "That's what we need to call out. It doesn't matter who that is. And that's what we're trying to make clear here: We're not going to get into politics here about this."

 

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BIDEN'S TUESDAY:

— 8:10 a.m.: The president and first lady JILL BIDEN will depart the White House for Buffalo, N.Y., arriving at 9:45 a.m.

— 10:25 a.m.: The Bidens will visit the memorial at the Tops Market where this weekend's massacre took place, paying their respects to the victims.

— 11 a.m.: The Bidens will meet with family members, law enforcement and local leaders at the Delavan Grider Community Center, where the president will deliver remarks at 1 p.m.

— 2 p.m.: The Bidens will leave Buffalo, arriving back at the White House at 3:25 p.m.

— 4 p.m.: The Bidens will host a Rose Garden reception for Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Heritage Month, with VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF also attending.

Jean-Pierre will gaggle on Air Force One on the way to Buffalo.

THE SENATE and THE HOUSE will hold a joint meeting to receive an address from Greek PM KYRIAKOS MITSOTAKIS at 11 a.m. Harris will also attend.

More from the Senate: Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM will testify before the Armed Services Committee at 9:30 a.m. The chamber will recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings.

More from the House: Testifying before Appropriations subcommittees today: NASA Administrator BILL NELSON at 9 a.m., Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH at 9 a.m. and OMB Director SHALANDA YOUNG at 2 p.m. EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN will testify before an Energy and Commerce subcommittee at 10:15 a.m. USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER will testify before the Foreign Affairs Committee at 1 p.m.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 16: Newly appointed White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre holds her first news conference in the Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House on May 16, 2022 in Washington, DC. Jean-Pierre stepped into her new role after former Press Secretary Jen Psaki left the White House to reportedly take a job with MSNBC.  (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Newly appointed White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre holds her first news conference at the White House on Monday. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

EMPIRE STATE OF CHAOS — Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris dig into the bedlam unleashed by a special master's new draft map of New York's congressional districts, which could not only damage Dems' hopes of holding the House but also pit multiple incumbents against each other.

Notable quotables:

— "SEAN PATRICK MALONEY did not even give me a heads up before he went on Twitter to make that announcement," fellow Dem Rep. MONDAIRE JONES said of the DCCC chair declaring for a district that's more in Jones' old area. "And I think that tells you everything you need to know about Sean Patrick Maloney."

— "I've never lost an election; I don't intend to start now," Rep. CAROLYN MALONEY said after she and fellow veteran Rep. JERRY NADLER announced they'd run for the same seat.

— "The draft map released by a Judicial Overseer in Steuben County and unelected, out-of-town Special Master, both of whom happen to be white men, is part of a vicious national pattern targeting districts represented by members of the Congressional Black Caucus," House Democratic Caucus Chair HAKEEM JEFFRIES said in a statement.

CONGRESS

UKRAINE AID LATEST — The Senate moved toward passage of the $40 billion Ukraine aid package with a procedural vote Monday that landed the support of 81 senators. Eleven Republicans voted no. It could pass as soon as Wednesday. More from The Hill

NOMINATION WOES — L.A. Mayor ERIC GARCETTI's nomination as U.S. ambassador to India is still "dangling by a thread" over concerns about his handling of sexual misconduct allegations against an aide, the L.A. Times' Jennifer Haberkorn reports.

— Good sign for Garcetti: Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) says he no longer has concerns about him.

— Bad sign for Garcetti: Plenty of other Senate Dems are undecided, including MARK KELLY (Ariz.), KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (N.Y.) and MAZIE HIRONO (Hawaii).

 

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THE WHITE HOUSE


HARRIS IS TIED UP — " Harris left the Senate to become VP. Now she can't quit the Senate, literally," by Eugene Daniels

STICKING TO THEIR GUNS — The massacre in Buffalo has accelerated the White House's drive to get STEVE DETTELBACH confirmed to lead the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Chris Cadelago reports. Senate Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) says an initial hearing could happen by next week.

— FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Dettelbach's nomination nabbed an endorsement from the Hispanic American Police Command Officers Association, which called him "uniquely qualified" in a letter to Senators DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) and CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa).

POLICY CORNER


FORMULA FUROR — Amid a national firestorm over baby formula shortages, Abbott struck a deal with the FDA to reopen a crucial shuttered Michigan factory, the company said Monday. But the change won't be immediate, and any relief is likely 6-8 weeks away. More from USA Today

— The FDA also announced policy changes to make it easier for foreign formula manufacturers to export their product here. That, too, will take weeks to yield results, per the WSJ.

WAR IN UKRAINE

BIG SYMBOLIC MOMENT FOR RUSSIA — Ukrainian fighters were evacuated from their protracted last stand in the Azovstal steel plant, meaning Russia has now essentially captured Mariupol. More from CNN

BIG SYMBOLIC MOMENT FOR UKRAINE — The Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv has gone so far that a group of fighters reached the border Monday. More from The Daily Beast … NYT: "Further Russian Retreat Seen in East Ukraine, Another Setback for Putin"

IT'S OFFICIAL — Sweden said it will apply to join NATO on Monday. But Turkey is throwing up roadblocks to Sweden's and Finland's accession to the alliance. More from the WSJ … Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL said he wants to ratify Finland's membership before the August recess. … Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is still reacting relatively calmly to the development, saying Monday that though the move could trigger a Russian response, this NATO expansion would cause "no direct threat to us."

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Tucker Carlson called Dan Crenshaw "eye-patch McCain." (A reminder: Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL, lost his right eye in an explosion while deployed in Afghanistan.)

John Fetterman is recovering with family and a Care Bear.

Jill Biden visited the Washington Ballet in support of a new scholarship initiative.

Fox execs said they have "absolutely no regrets" about inviting Rudy Giuliani on "The Masked Singer."

Simon Ateba was warned by the White House Correspondents' Association that he could be suspended or expelled if he interrupts another White House briefing.

The Obama Foundation and Airbnb's Brian Chesky created the Voyager Scholarship, a $100 million scholarship fund for college students interested in public service.

SPOTTED: Reince Priebus, who's Greek American, walking into Blair House on Monday to meet with Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

OUT AND ABOUT — The March On Washington Film Festival hosted the D.C. premiere of Abby Ginzberg's new documentary, "Barbara Lee: Speaking Truth to Power," at the Landmark E Street Cinema on Monday night. April Ryan moderated a panel discussion afterward with Ginzberg, Lee, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.). SPOTTED: Diane Blagman, Bruce Kieloch, Kimball Stroud, Juliet K. Choi, Tiffany Rose, Anthony Garrett, Marsha Martin, Hannah Botelho, Marie Smeallie, Bobby Cunningham, Joyce Liu, Ski Johnson, Barbara Hamlet, Nan Aron and Sydney Schwalb.

The Distilled Spirits Council hosted a party for Clay Risen's new book, "Bourbon: The Story of Kentucky Whiskey," at Jack Rose Saloon. SPOTTED: Frank Coleman, Josh Dawsey, Rick Klein, Jon Karl, Geoff Earle, Nikki Schwab, Craig Gordon, David Kihara and Molly Ball, Angela Greiling Keane, Emily Goodin and Hans Nichols.

BOOK CLUB — In "The Power of Crisis" ($28), out today, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer "details how domestic and international conflicts leave us unprepared for a trio of looming crises — global health emergencies, transformative climate change, and the AI revolution." He argues that "we can use these coming crises to create the worldwide prosperity and opportunity that 20th-century globalism promised but failed to deliver."

MEDIA MOVES — Robin Turner will be VP of training, culture and community at the WSJ. She currently is director of editorial diversity initiatives at POLITICO. More from Talking Biz News Aída Chávez will be a political reporter at the advocacy journalism organization More Perfect Union. She currently is the Washington, D.C., reporter for The Nation, and is an Intercept alum.

TRANSITIONS — Lauren Kidwell and Kalisha Dessources Figures are joining Civic Nation. Kidwell will be chief impact and operating officer and previously co-founded and served as managing partner at 270 Strategies. Dessources Figures will be a senior fellow and previously was a special assistant to the president for gender policy. … Blake Goodman is now national press secretary for Building Back Together. He previously was legislative and comms director for Michigan state Rep. Mari Manoogian. … Allie Friedman is director for cyber risk and analysis at Capital One. She previously was deputy director of Treasury's office of cybersecurity and critical infrastructure protection.

ENGAGED — Courtney Norris, deputy senior producer for PBS NewsHour, and Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent at NPR, got engaged this weekend in Aruba. The couple met in 2018 after Domenico got up the courage to ask her out (despite months and months and months of missing obvious clues). Courtney very nearly won an NPR news competition, but in the end won the bracket to Domenico's heart and they've been inseparable since. Pic Another pic

WEEKEND WEDDING — Eli Woerpel, founding partner of Apex Government Consulting, and Annie Humphrey , a legislative assistant for Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), got married Saturday, celebrating with friends and family at the Perry Belmont House. The couple are both from Kansas City, but didn't meet until they moved to D.C. in 2015. Pic Another pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jade Winfree, a senior analyst at the Government Accountability Office, and Paul Winfree, a distinguished fellow in economic policy and public leadership at Heritage, on May 9 welcomed Cora Adele Winfree, who joins two older brothers.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, "spending her 51st birthday in the (future) 51st state," per Commerce … NYT's Mike Shear and Reid Epstein … NBC's Kelly O'DonnellMike Smith … White House's Rachel PalermoRick Wiley Olivia Petersen of Morning Consult … Margarita Diaz … WaPo's Peter Wallsten MacKenzie Smith … POLITICO's Maura Kelly, Robin Turner, Sean Scott and Thao SperlingCheryl Bruner … The Intercept's Akela Lacy Randy Schriver … Protocol's Karyne Levy Eric SapirsteinJordan Dunn … CBPP's Shannon BuckinghamPhillip StuttsDerrick RobinsonDeirdre Murphy Ramsey of Precision Strategies … Derek Flowers David BrancaccioMargaret McInnis of Rep. Marcy Kaptur's (D-Ohio) office … Brielle Hopkins Tim Del MonicoEmily Druckman of Rep. Marc Veasey's (D-Texas) office … Ralph Neas … former Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) … Adi Sathi … former Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.) … Jenna Lowenstein … Bloomberg's Jeremy Lin Mike Farrell

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