Friday, April 15, 2022

The House GOP’s diminishing dealmakers

Presented by Sallie Mae®: A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Apr 15, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Sarah Ferris

Presented by Sallie Mae®

MCCARTHY'S 'YES' VOTES — The departure of 18-term Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) may have just made House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) life a tad more difficult next year. No, it's not just Upton — there's at least a half-dozen senior GOP dealmakers that won't be here next year, when Republicans are favored take back the chamber..

Those old-school Republicans are the ones that a future GOP speaker was most likely to count on for votes on everything from funding the government to working with Joe Biden on their own legislative agenda. Retiring GOP lawmakers like Reps. John Katko and Tom Reed of New York, Kevin Brady of Texas, Bob Gibbs of Ohio, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois — as well as the late Rep. Don Young of Alaska — didn't see negotiation as a dirty word. And that's not always the case with newer members of the party.

As Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon put it: "We can't have this mindset of 'burn the house down.'"

Put into perspective: At least six of the 13 Republicans who voted for last year's infrastructure bill won't be returning next Congress. And several more face tough reelections — including West Virginia Rep. David McKinley, whose appetite for bipartisanship is becoming a major theme of his GOP primary.

Republicans close to McCarthy say he's begun conversations in the conference about how to wrangle members on a smattering of issues after the chamber flips. His luck might depend a lot on the types of members who backfill the GOP departures — including in Texas, where several leadership-backed candidates have advanced in primaries so far. The more firebrand candidates — many preaching obstructionism in Congress — have been mostly stymied.

One more wild stat: Out of 133 members who voted to raise the debt limit the last time their party held the majority, only 33 are seeking reelection this fall.

Retiring Katko offered this advice to his colleagues: "We're gonna be in a majority, so it's not gonna be just about saying no to things anymore."

 

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GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, April 15, where we are SO relieved that one of the D.C. pups stolen at gunpoint this week has been found safe. Pic of Pablo the Australian shepherd here.

HILLBILLY EULOGY? - A band of influential Republicans are mounting an eleventh hour push to stop Donald Trump from backing J.D. Vance in next month's Ohio Senate primary. A polling firm connected to another GOP candidate, Josh Mandel, has circulated a memo that argued even a Trump endorsement couldn't save Vance's campaign. They claimed Vance — a one-time anti-Trumper — would only make fourth place, even with Trump's backing, per this Politico's power byline story. 

You can't make this up: Trump's press shop had already written up the Vance endorsement when the internal polling came out, per NBC's Marc Caputo.

The power — or peril? of a Trump endorsement will be put to the test in both the Ohio primary on May 3 and Pennsylvania's contest two weeks later. Just days earlier, Trump stunned MAGA world by endorsing celebrity surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania.

IN THE HOT SEAT — The House's Jan. 6 panel spent eight hours probing former White House aide Stephen Miller on Thursday, where lawmakers repeatedly asked about Donald Trump's speech to supporters the morning of the Capitol attack, as first reported by the AP.

— Per NYT's Maggie Haberman and Luke Broadwater, investigators asked Miller about Trump's use of the word "we" throughout Trump's speech on Jan. 6 — and whether he'd been giving directives to supporters to halt the election from being certified. "Mr. Miller argued that the language was no different from any other political speech," they wrote.

CNN's team reported that Miller, who is under subpoena, was "at times a difficult witness."

Related: "What the Meadows texts reveal about how two Trump congressional allies lobbied the White House to overturn the election" via CNN's Ryan Nobles, Annie Grayer, Zachary Cohen and Jamie Gangel.

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A DEVASTATING VISIT — A pair of GOP lawmakers, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), just became the first U.S. officials to visit Ukraine since the start of the war. Spartz, who is Congress's first Ukrainian-born lawmaker, went with Daines to visit horrific scenes of destruction in Kyiv and in Bucha, including an exhumation from a mass grave. The two spoke with NYT's Andrew Kramer on the ground.

And speaking of codels... A bipartisan group of senators plans to meet with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen today, one day after landing in the country for an undisclosed trip, Reuters reports . It's the first group of U.S. lawmakers to visit Taiwan this year, after a trip reportedly planned by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) this week was canceled after she tested positive for Covid-19, per the Taipei Times.

DEMS' IMMIGRATION RIFT — A handful of vulnerable senators are bucking President Joe Biden on his decision to pull back a pandemic policy that could soon mean an influx of migrants seeking asylum at the southern border.

That includes Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who teed off on Biden's move during a trip to the border on Thursday. "Right now this administration does not have a plan. I warned them about this months ago," Kelly said, per The Hill's Jordain Carney. "It's going to be a crisis on top of a crisis."

Mike DeBonis at WaPo describes a "growing mutiny " among the five endangered senators who have spoken out on this, warning Biden that it could soon mean chaos at the border — thrusting a huge political curveball at Democrats before the midterms. And these Senate fights "will likely determine if Democrats hold their majority in the fall," as Carney puts it in her piece this morning.

 

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THE GOP'S ANTI-ABORTION CRUSADE CONTINUES — Kentucky on Thursday became the state with perhaps the harshest abortion restrictions in the country, when its GOP legislature overrode a veto from the state's Democratic governor. The state's new 15-week abortion ban — among other restrictions — is modeled after a law in Mississippi that is currently before the Supreme Court, per the Lexington Herald Leader.

For awareness: This is the sixth state to have enacted abortion bans this year, including two more this week. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday signed a bill banning abortions after 15 weeks. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt signed a bill into law on Tuesday that makes it a felony to perform an abortion.

Reminder: The SCOTUS decision on the Mississippi law is expected in late June or early July — just in time for the height of primary season.

 

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QUICK LINKS 

With Jackson Headed to Supreme Court, New Judicial Battles Loom, from Carl Hulse at the New York Times

Jury convicts Jan. 6 defendant who blamed Trump for Capitol breach, from our own Kyle Cheney

Trump-backed House candidate faces backlash from Tennessee Republicans, from Alex Rogers and Gabby Orr at CNN.

Democrats' redistricting gains hit a roadblock: The Supreme Court, from Colby Itkowitz
and David Weigel at The Washington Post

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are out.

AROUND THE HILL

See y'all at happy hour.

TRIVIA

THURSDAY'S WINNER: Jack Howard was the first to correctly guess that both Mother Teresa and Marquis de Lafayette received honorary U.S. citizenship.

TODAY'S QUESTION FROM JACK: On this date in 1789, the Senate and House adopted the first joint rule to do what?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to sferris@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Sarah on Twitter @sarahnferris

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