News : POLITICO Florida Playbook: Florida's continued move from battleground to red

Friday, April 15, 2022

POLITICO Florida Playbook: Florida's continued move from battleground to red

Apr 15, 2022

Hello and welcome to Friday.

Color me red — During a recent campaign event by Rep. Val Demings in the state capital, Tallahassee City Commissioner Curtis Richardson looked at the crowd of local Democratic activists and said bluntly: "We're a red state ya'll. We've got some work to do."

Color me blue — When asked about this during his own swing through town earlier this week, Sen. Marco Rubio declined to go along with the sentiment. "No, Florida is a dynamic state, and if something changes very fast that means it could change back very quickly as well," Rubio said. "You have to have a few more elections before you reach that point."

Growing — But as the 2022 election moves closer, the voter registration numbers show that in a few short months, Republicans have gone from trailing Democrats to matching Democrats to now widening the gap. Democrats had a 124,000-voter advantage on Election Day in 2020. Florida's Division of Elections reported that, as of the end of March, there are now 5.14 million registered Republicans versus 5.03 million registered Democrats. Yes, these are active voters only, but that means the GOP edge has now grown to nearly 112,000, and it keeps getting larger every day.

Leading the change — One of the trends that is apparently driving this continued surge for Republicans in Florida is what's happening with Hispanics. One analysis shows that there were 192,500 more Hispanic Democrats in South and Central Florida than Hispanic Republicans during the 2020 general election. That margin has shrunk by more than 35,000 since then. (This includes the I-4 corridor and Broward and Miami-Dade counties.) The Democratic lead in Miami-Dade has decreased more than 42,000 voters since the last election.

Elsewhere — But there are other signs as well to what's helping Republicans. Democrats are also losing ground in southwest Florida and in rural counties where Republicans been helped by a switch in those counties snce 2016 when Donald Trump was elected. According to the GOP, while rural voters only make up 5 percent of all registered voters, they have accounted for 11 percent of the party's net gains.

Bottom line — There are many theories — and talking points — for why this is happening, including Trump's gain with Hispanics, North Florida Democrats finally switching parties after voting across party lines for years and general disaffection with Democratic policies. Democrats have also questioned how some counties have trimmed their rolls. But despite the arguments, this is just more solid evidence that Florida may no longer be a battleground state.

— WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com

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DRIVING THE DAY

SIGNED — "DeSantis approves 15-week abortion ban," by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian: Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday signed into law a measure that bans most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy in Florida, calling it the most significant restriction in a generation. The law will take effect on July 1. DeSantis signed the bill, HB 5, at a Spanish-speaking church in Kissimmee. The measure represents the most significant restriction on abortion in state history and comes amid other Republican-controlled states taking steps to limit abortion. "We're here today to protect life. We're here today to defend those who can't defend themselves," DeSantis said, standing in front of dozens of people, mostly women and some state agency chiefs, and a large video wall broadcasting the message "Florida is Pro Life" in English and Spanish.

To court? — One Planned Parenthood official said the fight over preserving access to abortion is not over. Stephanie Fraim, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood of Southwest and Central Florida, wrote a statement that stopped short of threatening all-out legal action. "If these politicians think the fight against this abortion ban is over they are sadly mistaken," Fraim wrote. "We won't rest until our rights are restored. No one has the right to control what we can and cannot do with our own bodies."

— " Gov. DeSantis just signed a 15-week ban abortion ban. Here are 3 things that comes next," by Tampa Bay Times' Kirby Wilson

CAMPAIGN MODE

FLORIDA CANDIDATE — "GOP hopeful sold tear gas used on Black Lives Matter protesters, " by POLITICO's Brittany Gibson and Daniel Lippman: Dozens of wealthy candidates run for Congress every election cycle. What sets Cory Mills apart are some of the mileposts on his road to riches: Selling tear gas that was used against Black Lives Matter demonstrators and purchasing a company that sold rubber bullets to Hong Kong to crack down on protesters. Mills, a first-time Republican candidate running in a competitive primary in Florida's 7th district, is the co-founder of PACEM Solutions. The company sells arms and riot-control gear and provides law enforcement training and private security consulting in the U.S. and around the world.

Response — In a written response to questions from POLITICO, Mills said that PACEM was "proud" to sell tear gas to law enforcement agencies in 2020, citing looting and vandalism that followed some demonstrations. "Products like tear gas are sanctioned and utilized by the Department of Defense and state and federal health departments," Mills said in his response. "They are used on a daily basis to train our military personnel and [law enforcement officers]. Each officer or military member, who utilizes these irritants, must experience these irritants prior to certification. I for one, am thankful that our officers have less lethal options available to ensure order and preserve lives."

WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET? — "DeSantis hauled in $102 million for his reelection bid. Who are his megadonors?" by Orlando Sentinel's Skyler Swisher: "DeSantis has secured backing from some of Trump's top donors, including Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus; WeatherTech founder David MacNeil; and shipping supply magnates Dick and Liz Uihlein. He's picked up support among the nation's wealthiest hedge fund managers and private equity bankers. His top individual donor is Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of the Chicago-based investment firm Citadel LLC. Griffin cut DeSantis a $5 million check in April 2021. Griffin hasn't committed to backing DeSantis if he runs for president in 2024, although he said it was time for 'America to move on' from Trump."

BY THE NUMBERS — Sen. Marco Rubio raised $5.8 million in the first quarter of the year and now had $13 million cash on hand for his re-election battle … The campaign of Rep. Val Demings had previously reported that Rubio's Democratic challenger had raised over $10 million during the same time period and has $13.1 million cash on hand.

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Richard Grenell, the former acting director of national intelligence under President Donald Trump, on Thursday endorsed Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican candidate for Florida's 13th Congressional District … Meanwhile one of Luna's GOP primary opponents - Amanda Makki - has been endorsed by Retired Marine Corps Lt. Gen. William Keyes … State Rep. Ben Diamond, who is a Democratic candidate for that same district, was endorsed Thursday by the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund … Former Rep. Sandy Adams has endorsed Scott Sturgill, who is one of several Republicans running in the crowded primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District … Family Research Council Action PAC is endorsing Republican Rep. Daniel Webster for reelection, citing his perfect score on the group's scorecard concerning bills dealing with abortion and religious liberty … SAVE Equality PAC, a South Florida organization that promotes LGBTQ equality, has endorsed incumbent Democratic State Sen. Jason Pizzo for reelection as well as Janelle Perez, a Democrat who is running for state Senate. If elected Perez would become the first openly gay woman in the state Senate … State Sen. Lauren Book's re-election campaign this week launched a "five-figure" digital ad campaign for the Senate Democratic leader that points out she has opposed anti-abortion bills passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature.

— "U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist discusses housing, criminal justice at town hall in Fort Pierce," by Treasure Coast Newspapers' Thomas Weber

— "Most southern state polling shows Ron DeSantis as lead Donald Trump alternative," by Florida Politics' A.G. Gancarski

MAPMAKER, MAPMAKER

BLUNT ASSESSMENT — "DeSantis redistricting map is 'overtly racist,' Black lawmaker Bracy says," by Orlando Sentinel's Jeffrey Schweers: "The latest congressional redistricting plan submitted by Gov. Ron DeSantis is a blatant attempt to give Republicans a political edge while diminishing Black and minority representation in Florida, Black lawmakers said. 'This is the most overtly racist action that you can do,' Democratic state Sen. Randolph Bracy said Thursday. He represents Orlando and is running for one of the congressional districts that would lose Black Democrat voters under the governor's proposal."

— " Redistricting chair Tom Leek defends letting governor draw congressional map," by Florida Politics' Scott Powers

— " Jacksonville to Washington? Mayor Lenny Curry watches congressional redistricting for his political future," by Florida Times-Union's David Bauerlein

— "From Miami Beach to Miramar, here's a look at how congressional districts may change ," by Miami Herald's Bianca Padró Ocasio and Bryan Lowry

— "DeSantis congressional map splits St. Petersburg, reduces Tampa Bay competition," by Tampa Bay Times' Romy Ellenbogen, Langston Taylor and Emily L. Mahoney

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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

LET'S SEE IF THIS WORKS — "Lawmakers are weighing in on a special legislative session to address property insurance," by WFSU's Regan McCarthy: "The Florida Secretary of State has begun a poll of the full legislature to find whether there's enough support for a special session on the state's troubled property insurance industry. A memo from the Florida Department of State says officials sent out the poll Thursday. Lawmakers have until noon on April 18 to respond. If three-fifths of the lawmakers in each chamber agree to convene, the session could be scheduled for mid-May. Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg) issued an official call for the session last Friday. By Monday more than 20 percent of the legislature had signaled support for the move, triggering a poll of the full body."

COMING SOON — "Here's what Florida employers need to know if DeSantis approves new 'anti-woke' law," by Miami Herald's Ana Ceballos: "Penny Morey, a human resources executive and consultant with more than 30 years of experience in the field, said she has never encountered a training session curriculum that espouses the concepts the bill seeks to ban. The problem, she argued, is that the bill could trigger lawsuits based on how someone perceives the delivery of a training program. "This law is trying to fix a problem that doesn't exist," she said. "But please know that when I say bogus lawsuits exist, they do. People can find an attorney that works on contingency now and then, who will take something like this because it may make them some money on a contingency basis.'"

— "Florida universities could lose funding if they violate 'anti-woke' law," by Miami Herald's Ana Ceballos

— " Why Pensacola leaders want DeSantis to veto a law intended to protect businesses," by Pensacola News Journal's Jim Little

— " As Medicaid enrollment nears 5.2 million, Florida Supreme Court says it won't review proposed expansion," by Florida Politics' Christine Jordan Sexton

DATELINE D.C.

THE MAN WITH THE PLAN — "Democrats field test how to make Rick Scott's agenda backfire on GOP," by NBC News' Marc Caputo: "When Sen. Rick Scott released his 'Plan to Rescue America,' he wanted it to be a blueprint for the GOP to take back the upper chamber of Congress in November. But that proposal from the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee appears to be helping Democrats, or at least that's what recent messaging testing found, according to documents obtained by NBC News."

Put on defense — "One key aspect of Scott's plan bashed by fellow Republicans calls for requiring poor people to start paying income tax. Democrats have featured that in ads and plan to do so again on Tax Day, April 18. Scott has been at pains to explain it away, even in an interview on Fox News, by arguing it's about making everyone have a vested interest in the federal government."

Danger sign? — "In a peek of its upcoming messaging strategy, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently field-tested Scott's plan with swing state voters and found strong aversion to the tax increase language as well as the idea of sunsetting all federally funded programs in five years, which would mean ending Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act."

Rick Scott.

Rick Scott. | AP Photo/Steve Cannon

TRANSITIONS — Karol Molinares is now communications director for Rep. Frederica Wilson. Molinares joins Wilson after working as communications director for State Voices Florida. She has worked as deputy communications director for the Florida House Caucus as well as Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.

— "California man pleads guilty to threatening to 'put a bullet' in Matt Gaetz ," by Pensacola News Journal:

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

'OPINIONS THAT VARY' — "Floridians less black and white on COVID mandates than DeSantis is, poll finds," by Palm Beach Post's Chris Persaud: "Most Floridians, including many Republicans, hold wobbly opinions on COVID-19 masking and vaccination requirements, a recent poll suggests. While the GOP-controlled state government has banned or defanged such measures to fight the spread of the disease, the majority of respondents in a St. Leo University survey conducted last month said they personally support mask and vaccine 'mandates.' Yet they also agreed it's time to 'move on' from the pandemic, indicating less of a hardline on these issues than their elected leaders."

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

DRILL BABY DRILL?— "Oil industry exec calls for revoking Florida's offshore drilling bans," by POLITICO's Bruce Ritchie: The head of an oil industry group said Thursday that bans on oil drilling off Florida's coast should be reversed — a move not mentioned by the state's Republican leaders as they call for increased energy production. Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, told the Economic Club of Florida that more access to oil on public lands and faster permitting is needed to combat rising gas prices and provide energy security. Sommers told POLITICO after the speech in Tallahassee that his group has asked Florida officials to revoke a 2020 offshore drilling ban signed by then-President Donald Trump in an executive order and a constitutional amendment approved by Florida voters in 2018.

CRACKDOWN — "State Department warns of 'systemic and violent repression' in Cuba in latest report," by El Nuevo Herald's Nora Gámez Torres: "The U.S. State Department said it has received credible evidence of unlawful killings, forced disappearances and torture of political activists in a scorching assessment of the Cuban government's record, released this week as part of the agency's annual report on human rights practices. In one of the most detailed accounts in recent years, the report warns of 'significant human rights issues' in Cuba and highlights 'systemic and violent repression' unleashed by the Miguel Diaz-Canel government against Cubans who took to the streets last July to call for political freedoms and better living conditions."

— "Must landlords give 60 days notice of rent hikes? This new rule is catching on in South Florida," by Sun Sentinel's Lisa J. Huriash and Austen Erblat

— " Fuel leak thwarts NASA's dress rehearsal for moon rocket," by Associated Press' Marcia Dunn

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

BIRTHDAYS: Frank Penela, external and legislative affairs director for the Florida Commission on Human Relations … (Saturday) Former Senate President Bill Galvano … Former U.S. Rep. Cliff Stearns … (Sunday) State Sen. Ray Rodrigues