Tuesday, March 8, 2022

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Morning Brew

The Ascent

Good morning and Happy International Women's Day! In honor of the holiday, our female writers ask that you stop assuming they are men.

Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, Jamie Wilde

MARKETS

Nasdaq

12,830.96

S&P

4,201.09

Dow

32,817.38

10-Year

1.772%

Bitcoin

$38,104.65

Moderna

$126.46

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The war in Ukraine delivered a triple whammy to stocks yesterday. The Nasdaq entered a bear market (20% off its record high), the Dow entered a correction (down 10%), and the S&P suffered its worst single-day drop since October 2020. Because we have to pick on one company, let's go with Moderna, which has lost more than 50% of its value this year as investors got over their crush on Covid stocks.
  • Ukraine: Key US lawmakers from both parties agreed to a bill that would ban Russian oil imports to the country. A US ban on Russian oil would be a big deal, but keep in mind that the US only depends on Russia for 8% of its petroleum product imports—a European embargo (which does not seem to be in the works) would be the real whopper.

MARKETS

Commodities to the moon

Nickel, wheat, and oil on the moon Photo Illustration: Dianna "Mick" McDougall; Sources: Getty Images

Commodities, which don't necessarily make for a great first-date conversation topic but are necessary for daily life, did their best meme stock impression yesterday with price swings of historic proportions. Nickel, for instance, had its biggest daily dollar gain on record.

What's going on? Commodities are spiking over concerns that the war in Ukraine will result in a dire shortage of critical materials. Because of port closures and sanctions, Russia and Ukraine have stopped shipping goods that are used around the globe for food, fuel, and manufacturing.

Here's how the war in Ukraine is unleashing chaos across global markets.

Energy

As rumors of a potential embargo on Russian energy swirled earlier in the day, European natural gas prices skyrocketed to hit 345 euros per megawatt-hour. That might mean nothing, until you realize that prices had never topped 30 euros before last year, or 200 before last Friday.

Oil prices continued to push higher, spelling even more financial pain for Americans at the gas pump. Gas prices in California have increased 51 cents in just the past week to an average of $5.34.

Food

Wheat prices have ballooned more than 50% since the war began to record highs, which is apparently what happens when nearly one-third of the world's total wheat exports (for which Ukraine and Russia are responsible) are knocked offline.

Pricey wheat will disproportionately affect lower-income nations, such as Egypt and Indonesia, that depend on Ukrainian and Russian grains. But soaring food prices don't just make dinner more expensive—they also destabilize societies. Protests erupted around the world the last time wheat prices were nearly this high, in 2008.

Metals

Nickel's price jump of 76% yesterday was one of the "most extreme moves" in metal markets history, Bloomberg wrote. Russia is a leading producer of nickel, which is a key ingredient for EV batteries and is also used to make stainless steel. Adding to price pressures is that nickel was already in short supply: Two years ago, Elon Musk urged companies to "please mine more nickel."

Bottom line: Another massive supply shock is thwacking the global economy just as it was beginning to recover from the Covid Everything Shortage. However, because this supply crunch isn't accompanied by a boom in economic growth, it increases the risk of stagflation and, ultimately, recessions.—NF

        

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Calvin Ridley Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Atlanta Falcons WR suspended for betting. Calvin Ridley won't be playing in the NFL next season after the NFL suspended him for betting on games in 2021. Ridley's gambling, which took place when he was taking time off for personal issues, featured parlay bets that included the Falcons to win, per ESPN. In response, Ridley tweeted, "I bet 1,500 total I don't have a gambling problem."

The war in Ukraine is making American houses more expensive. In another example of everything being connected, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is only intensifying competition for homes in the US, according to a Redfin report. The conflict has pushed mortgage rates lower, stoking a rush from potential homebuyers to lock in lower borrowing rates.

Russia is now the most sanctioned country on Earth. Yep, even more than Iran, Syria, North Korea, and Venezuela. More than 2,778 new sanctions designations have been slapped on Russia since Feb. 22, for a total of 5,530. Iran is second, with 3,616 sanctions, for its financing of terrorism and the development of its nuclear program.

        

INTERNATIONAL

What's up with Z?

Servicemen ride atop a Russian armored vehicle in Armyansk, Crimea, on February 25, 2022 STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images

In the second week since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the letter Z has gone from a cryptic marking on invading military vehicles to the primary symbol of support for Russia's war efforts.

In the misinformation-laden world of social media war coverage, knowing what symbols stand for is vital to parsing fact from fiction. So, let's dive in.

Z's beginnings:

  • While Z doesn't exist in the Cyrillic alphabet, it appeared hand-drawn on armored vehicles massed on the Ukrainian border in mid-February.
  • A few days after the invasion began, the Kremlin-backed media outlet RT began selling Z merchandise as a way to support Russian troops.
  • A popular Twitter thread by Moscow-based researcher and journalist Kamil Galeev shows Zs adorning the cars and social media accounts of civilian supporters of the invasion.
  • And recently, a Russian gymnast had a Z taped to his leotard while standing on a podium next to a Ukrainian rival.

What does it stand for? It's up for debate. Many believe the Z stands for "Za pobedu," or "for victory." Others believe it could simply be a means of avoiding friendly fire, or the Russian word for west, pronounced "zapad," signifying where the troops are stationed.

Whatever its exact meaning, Z has become an integral part of Russia's pro-war propaganda efforts, and it has been used to intimidate anti-war figures like the art group Pussy Riot.—MK

        

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RETAIL

This guy wants to turn around Bed Bath & Beyond

Ryan Cohen with chopsticks in his nose Ryan Cohen via Twitter

Bed Bath & Beyond shares soared 34% on Monday after Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen revealed his firm bought a 9.8% stake in the company. If this story sounds familiar, it's because Cohen announced a similar investment in GameStop in 2020, helping juice the frenzy that drove the retailer's share price up from below $20 to over $400.

Just like he did with GameStop, Cohen sent a letter to Bed Bath & Beyond's board, laying out his gameplan to turn around the struggling retailer. Some key points:

  • Narrow its goals to shore up inventory. Cohen roasted the current plan, writing that "Bed Bath's strategy looks far better in a PowerPoint deck than it does in practice."
  • Sell or spin off its retail chain for little tykes, Buybuy Baby
  • Abolish the 20% off coupon. OK, that's just our suggestion.

While Cohen became the chairman of GameStop's board to see his plan through, he said he's not in a position to do the same for Bed Bath & Beyond.

IYKYK: Cohen's an icon to individual traders in large part because he's an unabashed online troll; his followers call him "Papa Cohen" or even "the meme king." But, more practically, ever since he proved his chops by turning Chewy into the "Amazon for pets," retail traders are convinced he's got the Midas touch.—JW

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Family Guy scene of Lois saying she doesn't know what Venmo is Family Guy/Fox via Giphy

Stat: Customers sent $490 billion through Zelle in 2021, compared to $230 billion through its closest rival, Venmo. It's the kind of stat that will shake you to your core if you live in a Venmo house, as well as a reminder that we all live in some form of bubble. Whatever payment app you use, watch out for fraud—about 18 million Americans were defrauded via payment apps and digital wallets in 2020, according to industry consultant Javelin Strategy & Research.

Quote: "Corporate statements do very little to change outcomes or minds."

Disney CEO Bob Chapek told employees that the company won't take a formal stance on Florida's pending "Don't Say Gay" bill, which bans discussing sexual orientation or gender identity in classrooms. Chapek said Disney's leadership team "unequivocally" supports the LGBTQ+ community, but argued there are means other than company statements to bring about change.

Read: A profile of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. (The Atlantic)

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • The global death toll from Covid-19 topped 6 million yesterday.
  • Coinbase blocked more than 25,000 Russian-linked wallet addresses suspected to be engaged in illicit activity.
  • Scientists warned in a new paper that the Amazon rainforest is nearing the point at which much of it will turn into a savanna.
  • Dua Lipa was hit with a second copyright infringement lawsuit that claims her jam "Levitating" was a copycat of another song.

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Information and design: This website publishes a new infographic every day that'll help you learn more about the world, including the most common dreams in each country.

Science! Watch how metronomes synchronize over time (pendulum clocks do the same thing).

Listen up: Whether you're tidying up your finances or want to level up your career, Morning Brew has a podcast episode for you.

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GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew Mini: You've made it to the end of the newsletter! As a reward, here's today's Mini puzzle.

Nutritional facts

We'll give you the ingredient list to a popular food product, and you have to name the product.

Ingredients: Sugar, corn syrup, partially hydrogenated palm kernel oil, whey (milk), malted milk (barley malt, whey flour, milk, salt, sodium bicarbonate), cocoa, contains 2% or less of: resinous glaze, sorbitan tristearate, soy lecithin, salt, natural and artificial flavor, calcium carbonate, tapioca dextrin.

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ANSWER

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Written by Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, and Jamie Wilde

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