| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | Presented by Emergent | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | This morning we have a pair of significant Ukraine-related exclusives.
- The first is a letter signed by more than two dozen of the nation's top foreign policy minds calling for a partial no-fly zone over Ukraine. The push runs squarely against conventional wisdom in Washington, but their missive will no doubt stir the conversation.
- Second, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows that President JOE BIDEN is enjoying at least a slight "Ukraine bump." The uptick — first documented by an NPR/PBS/Marist survey released Friday — appears to be real, though how long it lasts is anyone's guess.
Let's unpack both. ON THE NO-FLY ZONE: The group of 27 foreign policy heavyweights has signed an open letter to the Biden administration calling for a "limited no-fly zone." The campaign is led by ROBERT MCCONNELL, co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation. As you've no doubt read by now, a no-fly zone over Ukraine has been ruled out by Biden and a wide cross-section of foreign policy leaders. Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) succinctly described the idea as leading to "World War III." To set up a no-fly zone, NATO (i.e. American) pilots would first have to destroy Russian air defenses. To enforce a no-fly zone, NATO would have to shoot down Russian planes that violate it. Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN warned Saturday that Russia would view any nation declaring a no-fly zone "as participants of the military conflict." It's one of the few things that Biden and Putin seem to agree on: A no-fly zone would start a war between NATO and Russia. But in their new letter, these signatories are calling for something a little different: "We, the undersigned, urge the Biden administration, together with NATO allies, to impose a limited No-Fly Zone over Ukraine starting with protection for humanitarian corridors that were agreed upon in talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials on Thursday. NATO leaders should convey to Russian officials that they do not seek direct confrontation with Russian forces, but they must also make clear that they will not countenance Russian attacks on civilian areas." This strikes us as a sincere attempt to answer the nagging question that many in the West have about wanting to do something about the humanitarian catastrophe Putin has unleashed without escalating into a potential nuclear conflict. The proposal described here is strictly about protecting civilians and enforcing the humanitarian corridors that Putin claims to back. "President Biden and NATO Secretary General [JENS] STOLTENBERG have stated that neither the United States nor NATO will engage Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine," they write. "What we seek is the deployment of American and NATO aircraft not in search of confrontation with Russia but to avert and deter Russian bombardment that would result in massive loss of Ukrainian lives." No doubt, members of Congress, and officials at the White House, Pentagon and State Department will be pressed on this today. (The proposal does not change the fact that NATO would be in a position of engaging Russian forces that violate the limited no-fly zone, so we think we know what the answer will be.) Some of the big names who signed: retired Gen. PHILIP BREEDLOVE, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe; IAN BRZEZINSKI, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense; PAULA DOBRIANSKY, former undersecretary of State for global affairs; ERIC EDELMAN, former undersecretary of Defense; EVELYN FARKAS, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia; DANIEL FRIED, former assistant secretary of State and U.S. ambassador to Poland; JOHN HERBST, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine; JOHN KORNBLUM, former assistant secretary of State and U.S. ambassador to Germany; DAVID MERKEL, former deputy assistant secretary of State and NSC director; WILLIAM TAYLOR, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine; ALEXANDER VERSHBOW, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and NATO; and KURT VOLKER, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and special representative for Ukraine negotiations.
| | | | A message from Emergent: Emerging threats never stop and neither do we. Our protections help defend against things we hope will never happen – so we are prepared, in case they ever do. Learn how we've become a leader in protecting people against public health threats at www.emergentbiosolutions.com. | | | ON BIDEN'S UKRAINE BUMP — Republicans have tried for days to ding Biden on Ukraine, labeling him "weak," blasting him for being "too slow to act" and, in some instances, trying to claim Putin would have thought twice before invading if DONALD TRUMP were president. Well, today we're seeing more evidence that these hits aren't landing.
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| On the Ukraine question in particular, the change is especially notable among independents, whose approval of Biden's handling of the conflict rose by more than 5 percentage points the past week; and Republicans, whose support grew by 2 points over that period. Toplines … Crosstabs FLUKE — OR TREND? The numbers are in line with other polls documenting an uptick for Biden since his State of the Union address. On Friday, NPR/PBS/Marist found that his overall job approval rating had jumped by 8 points to 47% from 39%. Also that "a majority of Americans (52%) approve of how President Biden is handling the situation in Ukraine, up from 34% last week." We asked Cameron Easley, senior politics editor for Morning Consult, to help us make sense of the findings. "It's not unusual for presidents to see their numbers improve immediately following a major address like a State of the Union, or for the so-called 'rally around the flag' effect to provide a similar boost when the country is facing a security threat," he wrote to us. "Biden's speech last week gave him a chance to capitalize on both of those impulses in the U.S. electorate, so it's plausible that we're seeing some real upward movement here." At the same time, Easley added: "It's also true that most of these boosts are short-lived … so it's too early to say if this represents some kind of turning point in Biden's political fortunes." It's International Women's Day. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Emergent:   | | | BIDEN'S TUESDAY (all times Eastern): — 9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 11:15 a.m.: Biden will depart the White House en route to Fort Worth, Texas, where he is scheduled to arrive at 2:45 p.m. — 3:30 p.m.: Biden and VA Secretary DENIS MCDONOUGH will speak with VA health care providers and about burn pits and other health issues. — 4:30 p.m.: Biden and McDonough will deliver remarks on health care. — 6:25 p.m.: Biden will depart Fort Worth to return to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 9:20 p.m. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Fort Worth. THE SENATE is in. Assistant A.G. KRISTEN CLARKE and Rabbi CHARLIE CYTRON-WALKER of Colleyville, Texas, will be among those testifying before the Judiciary Committee at a hearing on the rise in hate crimes at 10 a.m. The Foreign Relations Committee will hold a markup on 2:30 p.m. to vote on nominations, including DEBORAH LIPSTADT for special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism. THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS, DNI AVRIL HAINES, NSA Director Gen. PAUL NAKASONE, FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. SCOTT BERRIER will testify before the Intelligence Committee at 10 a.m. New York City Mayor ERIC ADAMS and Houston Mayor SYLVESTER TURNER will be among those testifying about public safety before a Judiciary subcommittee at 10 a.m.
| | | | HAPPENING TODAY, INTERNATIONAL WOMEN'S DAY, AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION ON THE WOMEN IN AFGHANISTAN: Join Women Rule editor Elizabeth Ralph for a panel discussion on the future for Afghan women. Guests include Hawa Haidari, a member of the Female Tactical Platoon; Cindy McCain, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture; Roya Rahmani, Afghanistan's first female ambassador to the U.S.; and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Learn how female Afghan veterans are planning their futures, what the women still in Afghanistan face, and what the U.S. can do to help. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A particularly pricey gas station in Los Angeles shows eye-popping numbers as gas hits $4 a gallon nationwide for the first time since 2008. | Jae C. Hong/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | WAR IN UKRAINE DAY 13 … LATEST IN UKRAINE — NYT: "On land, in the air and across the sea, the Ukrainian military and civilian soldiers continued to bedevil and bog down Russian forces on Tuesday, protecting the borders of key cities and inflicting heavy losses against the larger and better equipped Russian army. "But as Russian forces largely rely on long-range missiles, the invasion has caused widespread and often indiscriminate damage, creating a humanitarian catastrophe that has left hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians with no heat, water or electricity, and struggling to find a path to escape. While the prospect of a cease-fire and 'humanitarian corridors' was again being discussed on Tuesday, there was little evidence that conditions on the ground would allow for large-scale evacuations from areas of the heaviest fighting." EYES ON TRADE RELATIONS … "A powerful, bipartisan group [of lawmakers] announced Monday it would craft legislation suspending normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus, and grant the White House the authority to increase tariffs on the two countries, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine," CNN's Alex Rogers and Manu Raju report. "They also said they had agreed to strike a deal banning the import of 'energy products' from Russia. The letter was signed by Massachusetts Democratic Rep. RICHARD NEAL, Texas GOP Rep. KEVIN BRADY, Oregon Democratic Sen. RON WYDEN and Republican Sen. MIKE CRAPO of Idaho." Related read: "Biden warms to a Russian oil ban. Congress may not give him a choice," from our Andrew Desiderio, Burgess Everett and Jonathan Lemire — AP's Alan Fram also notes that the proposed financial aid to Ukraine "has grown beyond $12 billion, as congressional bargainers worked toward a bipartisan government-wide spending deal that would also contain fresh sums for battling Covid-19."
| | | | A message from Emergent:   | | | CONGRESS THE RETURN OF … OBAMACARE REPEAL? — Paging MITCH MCCONNELL. Once again, one of his rank-and-file members is proposing a policy agenda item for the GOP to run on — one that might backfire. This time it's Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.), who said on Breitbart News on Monday that the GOP should try once again to repeal Obamacare if they sweep the House, Senate and White House by 2024. We'll remind you that Republicans tried to do this in Trump's first year and failed miserably. WaPo's Amy Wang, who wrote up this news, notes that ACA has become even more popular since Biden took office, with more than 31 million people using the government health care system. While Johnson isn't proposing an official platform like Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.), the Wisconsinite said he backs Scott's agenda. But Johnson's repeal idea alone could cause complications for McConnell's strategy of making the election a referendum on Biden and Democrats. Concerns about protecting people with pre-existing conditions were the No. 1 reason Democrats believed they flipped the House in 2018. Sure enough, Psaki tweeted about the issue Monday night: "Senate Republicans have a plan to gut health care, raise premiums, and strip protections for pre-existing conditions. They also want to raise taxes on half of Americans, including seniors and working families. Don't take my word for it, listen to @SenRickScott and @SenRonJohnson." FREE MEAL FIGHT — McConnell is opposing a provision in the omnibus spending bill that would extend a slew of waivers that have allowed schools to serve universal free meals during the pandemic, sources tell our Helena Bottemiller Evich. "'McConnell is not budging,' said a person close to the ongoing negotiations. 'It hurts everybody in every state. These are things Republicans want.' "McConnell has not publicly stated why he has taken a hard line on the waiver issue and declined to comment, but a GOP leadership aide said the move was meant to roll back a temporary pandemic measure and rein in spending." HEADED TO BIDEN'S DESK — CNN's Ali Zaslav: "The Senate passed the Emmett Till Antilynching Act of 2022 on Monday night by unanimous consent. The bill, which would make lynching a federal hate crime, now heads to Biden's desk for his signature." The legislation would designate lynching punishable by up to 30 years in prison. The first anti-lynching bill was introduced in the House in 1918. — Flashback from 2020: "Paul holds up anti-lynching bill. See Harris and Booker's response," CNN DEMS REBRAND BBB — Vulnerable Senate Dems are on board with Sen. JOE MANCHIN's (D-W.Va.) idea to retool Democrats' congressional agenda into an inflation-fighting measure, Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report . A reconciliation do-over that tackles climate, prescription drug costs, tax reform and deficit/inflation reduction is "welcome news for a group of Democrats who are trying to assemble a cost-cutting agenda but struggling to break through." JUDICIARY SQUARE REDISTRICTING WATCH — "The Supreme Court turned away efforts from Republicans in North Carolina and Pennsylvania to block state court-ordered congressional districting plans. In separate orders Monday, the justices are allowing maps selected by each state's Supreme Court to be in effect for the 2022 elections. Those maps are more favorable to Democrats than the ones drawn by the states' legislatures," AP's Mark Sherman reports. The breakdown: "In North Carolina, the map most likely will give Democrats an additional House seat in 2023. The Pennsylvania map also probably will lead to the election of more Democrats, the Republicans say, as the two parties battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections in November."
| | | | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | 'NEO-JOURNALISM-MAXI-ZOOM-DWEEBIE' — Okay … So on Sunday, we reported on the Twitter back and forth between new WaPo reporter Taylor Lorenz and some of her former and current colleagues at NYT and WaPo. ( Take a look near the bottom of Playbook that day. You'll need the background.) When the sun rose on Monday, Lorenz was getting ready for her first day at the Post and all was quiet in the world. At 4:12 p.m. Eastern, however, the silence was broken when a story about Lorenz posted over at N.Y. Mag. The headline of the piece, by Shawn McCreesh: "Taylor Lorenz Introduces Her Brand to the Washington Post." (The site also tested a different headline: "Of Course, Taylor Lorenz Welcomed Herself to the Wash Po With a Twitter Feud.") Some choice passages from the article, which was catnip for blue-check journo twitter:
- "'Oh my God, can you stand all the drama?' she says, giggling on a phone call with me last night."
- "'If you think about the Times as a platform, and you think about journalists as people creating for that platform,' says Lorenz, again slipping into clichéd digital-marketing speak, 'those two sides are always going to be in tension.'"
- "Lorenz's new classmates at the Post and a few of her old ones at the Times called her out-of-date self-empowerment-via-marketing-lingo 'cringey' and basically labeled her a neo-journalism-maxi-zoom-dweebie."
- "Some of Lorenz's new colleagues have been anticipating her arrival today like she's the Creature from the Black Lagoon. (Imagine trying to explain her to George Will.) She will remain in Los Angeles but recalls fondly the two years she spent in Washington. 'I remember trying to explain to D.C. people why they need to know who Jake Paul is and them laughing. Meanwhile, Jake Paul says he's going to run for president in 2032.' She adds cheerily, 'I love that my beat starts conversation!'" (No issue there from a publication whose unofficial motto is "Driving the Conversation.")
Despite participating in the story (as well as another, more strait-laced write-up in the LAT about last weekend's drama), Lorenz was not a fan. In a since-deleted tweet, she wrote that "a bunch of high profile current and former colleagues publicly bash me and my work on twitter days before my new job and this is how NY Mag frames it." In another later-deleted tweet, she wrote: "I have no hard feelings abt anyone in this threat. People post dumb tweets sometimes, I can hold my own." McCreesh's piece also received some pushback on Twitter, with Lorenz retweeting some of the criticism herself. And as the controversy around her snowballed, some writers, like former POLITICO Mag editor Garrett Graff,rose to her defense: "Taylor is one of the most fascinating and important journalists working today, and I can't wait to see her work in her new gig." ONE-LINERS … After eating lunch, Eric Adams worked off the calories by jumping on a skateboard … as one does. Mad Dog PAC threw up a street sign in front of the Russian Embassy renaming the street "President Zelensky Way." Yo-Yo Ma played his cello next to the sign to protest the invasion of Ukraine. Weijia Jiang and Luther Lowe are expecting their second baby! BOOK CLUB — Rick Hasen, the well-known UC Irvine elections law expert, is out with a new book today: "Cheap Speech: How Disinformation Poisons Our Politics ― and How to Cure It" IN MEMORIAM — A funeral was held Monday for Ken Duberstein at the Washington Hebrew Congregation. Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), Michael Luttig, Ronald Lauder and Andy Duberstein delivered eulogies. SPOTTED: Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Dave Calhoun, Ken Mehlman, Ziad Ojakli and Devon Spurgeon, Lally Weymouth, Caroline Kennedy, Elaine Chao, Josh Bolton, Mac McLarty, Alma Powell,Barbara Comstock, Wayne Berman, Laura Cox Kaplan and Joel Kaplan, Jim McNerney and Nina Totenberg. Read Luttig's eulogy here MEDIA MOVES — Jamie Ross is joining WaPo as a writer for "The 7" newsletter. He previously was a reporter for The Daily Beast. Talking Biz News — CNN+ announced a slate of new executive producers: Javier de Diego will be executive director for "Who's Talking to Chris Wallace?", Eva Nordstrom will be director of features and planning, Vaughn Sterling will oversee breaking news coverage on CNN+ and Reliable Sources Daily, and Ilyas Kirmani will be executive producer for "Cari & Jemele: Speak.Easy" and "The Don Lemon Show." FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Mariel Sáez will be an SVP of the public affairs practice at SKDK. She previously was director of broadcast media at the White House, and is a Biden campaign and Steny Hoyer alum. — Brooks Aukamp, Kelsey McLaughlin, Andrew Markoff and Kira Halevy are joining Applecart. Aukamp will be a director of business development at Applecart after helming Twitter's politics and issue advocacy team. McLaughlin will be a senior director of digital strategy and previously was a VP of media at Rising Tide Interactive. Markoff will be director of campaigns and previously was Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell's (D-Fla.) campaign manager. Halevy will be a managing director and head of client success, and previously was at SJR and Edelman and is an adjunct professor of business communication at Baruch College. TRANSITIONS — Wendy Parker Sussman has joined the Johnson & Johnson worldwide government affairs and policy leadership team as head of pharmaceuticals for U.S. federal affairs. She previously was VP and head of U.S. health care government and public affairs at EMD Serono. … Jara Butler is joining Supermajority and the Supermajority Education Fund as chief impact officer. She previously was national training and services director at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, and is a Beto O'Rourke alum. … Drew Kent is joining the Governing Majority Education Fund as its first executive director. He most recently was a lobbyist for the National Education Association, and is a Charlie Dent alum. … … Brent Perrin is now a project manager at Majority Strategies. He is a Jack White campaign and NRSC alum. … Leo Tsao is joining Paul Hastings as a partner in the investigations and white collar defense and fintech and payments practices. He most recently was principal deputy chief of MLARS, and is a DOJ alum. … Nathan Kasai is joining the Gill Foundation as a program officer. He previously was deputy director for social policy and politics at Third Way. WEDDING — Kyle VonEnde, comms director for Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), and Lauren Beeslee, who will soon start as a senior strategy consultant for Accenture after completing her MBA at George Washington University, got married Feb. 19 at St. Peter's Catholic Church on Capitol Hill. The two met in 2014 during their first weeks as undergrads at American University. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.) and Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) … Adrian Saenz of the White House … NBC's Lester Holt … World Bank President David Malpass … Taylor Lustig … Evan Feigenbaum … Mallory Quigley … Drew Nirenberg … Andrew Koneschusky … Tom Cellucci … Micah Barbour … Shanon Henry … Gina Dearborn … Alex Tureman … Sarah Rogers … AARP's Ashley Wolos … Jeff Sonderman … former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) (7-0) … Robert Wolf (6-0) … POLITICO's Emily Solomon … Jesse Thomas … E&E News' Andrew Holmes … Sarah Henning … Stephen Perkins of the American Conservation Coalition … Kristian Denny Todd Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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