| | | | |  | | By Quint Forgey and Alexander Ward | | 
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, second from right, listens as FBI Director Christopher Wray, left, testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, March 8, 2022. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint For months, Biden administration spokespeople have declined to speculate about the headspace of VLADIMIR PUTIN — reluctant to rock fragile diplomatic efforts, exacerbate a tense security crisis or pretend to know just what the megalomaniacal Russian president might be thinking. But for two-and-a-half hours today, during an open session of the House Intelligence Committee's annual hearing on worldwide threats, Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES and her fellow intelligence agency chiefs did just that — diving deep into the wartime psyche of the leader Sen. ANGUS KING (I-Maine) described this morning as "the most dangerous man in world history." In short, the U.S. officials painted a picture for lawmakers of an increasingly isolated and indignant strongman, frustrated over his troops' performance after nearly two weeks of battle in Ukraine and willing to ramp up the conflict to even more dangerous heights. Haines said that while Putin "probably anticipated" many of the international financial sanctions imposed in response to Russia's aggression, he "did not anticipate … the degree to which the United States and its allies and partners would take steps to undermine his capacity to mitigate Western actions." Similarly, Putin underestimated "the pullback from Russia initiated by non-state actors in the private sectors," Haines said. (Her public assessment came shortly after European energy giants BP and Shell announced they would not make any new purchases of Russian oil and gas, and as President JOE BIDEN announced a U.S. ban on Russian energy imports.) Despite those economic and military setbacks, Haines said the U.S. intelligence community believes Putin "is unlikely to be deterred … and instead may escalate — essentially doubling down." Putin also "probably still remains confident that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine," Haines added. Although it still remains "unclear" whether Putin will pursue a "maximalist plan to capture all or most of Ukraine," Haines said, he will find it "especially challenging" to maintain control of captured territory and install a sustainable pro-Moscow regime in Kyiv amid what's likely to be "a persistent and significant insurgency" by Ukrainians. On a personal level, Haines said the intel community assesses that Putin "feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this is a war he cannot afford to lose." She added, however, that what Putin "might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time, given the significant costs he is incurring." (Defense Intelligence Agency Director SCOTT BERRIER testified "with low confidence" that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have been killed so far.) CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS got more illustrative, saying Putin has "been stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years." Burns also explained how Putin has created a system within the Kremlin "in which his own circle of advisers is narrower and narrower" — and sparser still because of the Covid-19 pandemic. In that hierarchy, "it's proven not career-enhancing for people to question or challenge his judgment." "I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He's likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties," Burns said. But "the challenge that he faces" — as well as "the biggest question that's hung over" U.S. officials' analysis of Putin's planning, Burns added — is that "he has no sustainable political endgame in the face of what is going to continue to be fierce resistance from Ukrainians."
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began 12 days ago, Russia has lost 303 tanks, 120 artillery systems, 48 aircraft, 80 helicopters and 474 vehicles. There is no updated casualty number today, but the latest count was 11,000 Russians have been killed or injured by Ukrainian forces. ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — "The main efforts of the occupiers continue to focus on creating conditions for the capture of the cities of Kiev, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Mariupol, Mykolaiv." ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia has destroyed 200 Ukrainian schools, 34 hospitals and more than 1,500 residential buildings. Thirty-eight Ukrainian children have been killed with more than 70 wounded. In total, more than 400 civilians killed and more than 800 wounded are confirmed. ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — 2 million people have fled Ukraine since the war began ( U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees) Global Response: — U.S. and U.K. announce a ban on Russian oil imports (U.S. president and U.K. prime minister) — Poland hands over its fighter jets to the U.S. (Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs) RUSSIAN OIL BAN: The U.S. and United Kingdom announced that they would ban imports of Russian oil, a step the Biden administration at least had long signaled it would not take. "We're banning all imports of Russian gas, oil and energy," Biden said during a White House address. "That means Russian oil will no longer be accepted at U.S. ports, and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine." "Businesses should use this year to ensure a smooth transition so that consumers will not be affected," said British Business Secretary KWASI KWARTENG as he made the announcement on Twitter. Russian oil only makes up about 3 percent of America's oil imports, so the move is more symbolic than anything. And while the administration has long said "nothing is off the table" regarding sanctions, officials for weeks said this was not a move they truly wanted to make. "I would note that what the President is most focused on is ensuring we are continuing to take steps to deliver punishing economic consequences on Putin while taking all action necessary to limit the impact to prices at the gas pump," White House press secretary JEN PSAKI told reporters on Monday. POLISH JETS INCOMING: Poland is "ready to deploy — immediately and free of charge — all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America," Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs ZBIGNIEW RAU said in a statement today. "At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes," Rau added. "The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies — owners of MIG-29 jets — to act in the same vein." The announcement of the deal — widely viewed as a likely precursor to the jets being delivered to Ukraine — came after a week of back-and-forth negotiations about the transfer and despite Russian warnings that sending the aircraft would be seen as a provocation. ZELENSKYY OPEN TO DEAL? Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY suggested he's willing to find a "compromise" on Russia's demands that Moscow-backed breakaway territories should be considered independent and that Crimea is officially Russian territory. "We can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories will live on," he told ABC News' DAVID MUIR last night (around the 5:20 mark). He said he worries about the people in those areas who want to be part of Ukraine, not Russia or so-called independent republics. "The question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them. This is another ultimatum and we're not prepared for ultimatums." Zelenskyy also noted he'd "cooled" on Ukraine's quest to join NATO, saying the alliance has made clear it's not interested in Kyiv's accession any time soon. Ukraine and Russia held their third round of peace talks Monday but made no considerable progress on ending the war. POLL: NEARLY HALF OF PEOPLE IN U.S., U.K. AND EU BACK NO-FLY ZONE: A new poll released today by Cygnal, Gradus and Response:AI shows that nearly half of the general population in the U.S., U.K. and EU support their governments establishing and enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The question posed: Do you support or oppose your country using its military to set up and enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine? The results ("support" and "oppose" both equal a combined total of "strongly" and "somewhat"): — U.S.: 45 percent support, 24.9 oppose — U.K.: 46.4 percent support, 23.9 oppose — EU: 46.1 percent support, 17 percent oppose Ukrainians were asked if they "support or oppose other countries using their militaries to set up and enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine?" Turns out 84 percent support while only 2.1 percent oppose. The survey of 3,674 people was conducted between March 6 and 7.
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Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | IRAN'S CHIEF NEGOTIATOR LEFT VIENNA TALKS: Unexpectedly, Tehran's top nuclear negotiator left Vienna in the midst of another round of Iran nuclear deal talks. "Iranian officials said ALI BAGHERI-KANI, who leads the Iranian negotiating team, would soon return to Vienna. Two Western diplomats said it wasn't clear why Mr. Bagheri-Kani left or when he would return," The Wall Street Journal's LAURENCE NORMAN reported. "Mr. Bagheri-Kani's sudden departure raises the prospect that the Vienna negotiations on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, which have dragged on for 11 months, could fail." Moscow threw a wrench in the painstaking negotiations by demanding a written guarantee that America's Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia won't impact its trade with Iran. Western officials for the moment reject that idea, possibly bringing the talks to a standstill once more. "If the final decisions are not taken in Washington and Tehran now, this agreement is in serious jeopardy," a senior Western diplomat told Norman. "By delaying these decisions, a window has been opened for Moscow to wreak havoc." RUSSIA SHELLING IMPERILS EVACUATIONS: Efforts to evacuate and improve the humanitarian situation in Ukraine are continuously imperiled by Russia's bombing. "In the southeastern city of Mariupol, the site of the war's first failed humanitarian cease-fire last week, evacuation efforts failed for the fourth day in a row, and residents have gone without power or water supply for over a week," The Wall Street Journal's YAROSLAV TROFIMOV and BRETT FORREST reported. "Food and other basic supplies were running short in besieged cities such as Sumy, Chernihiv and Mariupol. Some 700,000 people lacked electricity and heating across the country because of the destruction of civilian infrastructure. Ukraine's second-largest city of Kharkiv has been hit heavily by Russian attacks, with much of its 19th-century downtown reduced to rubble." "War crimes are part of Russia's deliberate strategy," Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA said today. In Sumy, a Russian tank shot at a convoy trying to escape the city. "This incident has confirmed that there is no 100% security in leaving the city. Decide for yourselves whether it is more dangerous to stay or to leave," Sumy Gov. DMYTRO ZHYVYTSKI said in a video message.
| | | UKRAINE'S 'NEW WARFARE' IN CYBERSPACE: OLEKSANDR "ALEX" BORNYAKOV, Ukraine's deputy minister of digital transformation, discussed the so-called IT Army of Ukraine in an interview with POLITICO Magazine's ELISE LABOTT, sharing more information about the diffuse group of civilian hackers from around the world who have volunteered to take down Russian and Russian-aligned sites. "It's really fascinating: We are the first in the world to introduce this new warfare. And it's powerful, yet simple at the same time," Bornyakov said, adding that his team has been giving the group "tasks" through a Telegram channel with more than 300,000 members — most of whom are less than 30 years old. "This is what is really amazing about it. We don't have a chain of command or any structure at all. So, [Russia] can't fight it," Bornyakov said. "It's impossible to disrupt it or break it down. You can't bomb it or cut off connections or take down a top person — because there is no top person. It's just a group of people throughout Ukraine and outside Ukraine who have resources. We don't have any evidence of this, but we think some of them are organizations. We just lay out what we think is crucial and what we want them to do. And they just do it. There is no personal contact with them." NSA CHIEF CONFIRMS RUSSIAN CYBERATTACKS: In other news from today's House Intelligence Committee hearing, Paul Nakasone — who heads both the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command — testified that his agencies have tracked three or four Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine since the invasion almost two weeks ago, per our own MAGGIE MILLER (for Pros!). Nakasone's remarks were the first official U.S. government confirmation of Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine since the invasion started. Before the invasion, officials feared major cyberattacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. These haven't happened. Nakasone did not provide any further details on the specific attacks. Chair ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) also declined to comment on the details of what was attacked and how. He told reporters after the hearing that he was not surprised by Nakasone's testimony, as the committee had been briefed on Ukrainian efforts to defend itself against cyberattacks.
| | | SECRET PENTAGON MEETING ON HYPERSONICS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported on how Pentagon research chief HEIDI SHYU held a top-secret meeting with defense industry CEOs last week to brief them on hypersonic weapons issues. "It's important that they understand where the threats are today and where the threats are headed," Shyu told reporters Monday. Shyu said her investment plan for hypersonic weapons for fiscal 2023 was recently approved by Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, but she did not disclose what weapons were funded or which hypersonic weapons projects will continue in fiscal 2023. The meeting followed an unclassified session in which CEOs asked the Pentagon to increase funding for hypersonic projects and access to testing facilities. JANES ACQUIRES RWR ADVISORY GROUP: Janes, the open-source defense intelligence firm, has acquired RWR Advisory Group, a research and analysis company that tracks the business activities of foreign companies. Janes hopes the acquisition will provide it with more expertise when advising government, national security and defense industry clients. "The acquisition enables Janes to expand beyond traditional warfare into emerging areas of national security threats and concerns," Janes CEO BLAKE BARTLETT said in a statement.
| | | |   | | | | | | PROGRESSIVES BEND TO BALLOONED PENTAGON BUDGET: Democratic leaders in Congress are expected to deliver Biden one of history's biggest pots of defense spending as part of a monthslong government spending deal — and much of the House's liberal wing is prepared to vote for it, report our own SARAH FERRIS and CONNOR O'BRIEN. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has scrambled progressives' own game plan for Congress' looming funding pact, which is expected to include a Pentagon budget that far exceeds the $715 billion Biden proposed, plus at least $10 billion more in emergency aid to help Ukraine. The deal is partly thanks to a $25 billion boost to the administration's defense proposal that Democrats and Republicans endorsed in military policy legislation Biden signed in December. But Congress must still pass legislation to fund the Pentagon, and their negotiations could produce defense spending even higher than the $740 billion they agreed to months ago. BIPARTISAN BILL TO SANCTION RUSSIAN GOLD: A bipartisan quartet of senators introduced a bill to sanction the purchase of Russian gold. The "Stop Russian Government and Oligarchs from Limiting Democracy Act," or Stop Russian GOLD, would impose secondary sanctions on anyone transacting or transporting Russian gold from Russia's central bank holdings. "Russia has taken a page out of Venezuela's book by exploiting a loophole in current sanctions that allows them to launder money through the purchase and sale of gold," said Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), one of the four co-sponsors alongside Sens. MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.), BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.) and ANGUS KING (I-Maine). "This legislation would apply secondary sanctions to parties who help Russia finance their war by buying or selling this blood gold." "With Russia's economy in freefall, we need to make sure that Putin can't circumvent our sanctions," Hassan added. "This bipartisan bill closes a critical loophole that allows Russia to sell off its gold reserves to prop up its economy. The U.S. and our allies must be steadfast in standing up to Russian aggression and ensure that we block any escape hatch Putin has in getting around the full weight of our sanctions." Per a news release: "Russia is exploiting a loophole in the sanctions placed on its central bank that are allowing the government and oligarchs to launder money through gold. The Russian Federation is purchasing gold to offset the devaluation of its currency, the ruble, and is then selling that gold on international markets in exchange for high-value currency."
| | | MENENDEZ SLAMS VENEZUELA OIL TALKS: Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) couldn't be more against the idea of improving relations with Venezuela to bring in more oil imports. "If the reports are true that the Biden administration is brokering the purchase of Venezuelan oil, I fear that it risks perpetuating a humanitarian crisis that has destabilized Latin America and the Caribbean for an entire generation," Menendez said in a Monday night statement. "NICOLÁS MADURO is a cancer to our hemisphere and we should not breathe new life into his reign of torture and murder. As such, I would strongly oppose any action that fills the pockets of regime oligarchs with oil profits while Maduro continues to deprive Venezuelans of basic human rights, freedoms, and even food." "[T]he Biden administration's efforts to unify the entire world against a murderous tyrant in Moscow should not be undercut by propping up a dictator under investigation for crimes against humanity in Caracas. The democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people, much like the resolve and courage of the people of Ukraine, are worth much more than a few thousand barrels of oil," he continued. Psaki confirmed that U.S. officials recently traveled to Venezuela to discuss energy security and the safety of detained Americans. Importing more oil from Venezuela, officials say, can help the U.S. further reduce imports from Russia and keep gas prices down. Maduro implied he's looking to improve relations with the U.S. "We have agreed to work on an agenda going forward, issues of interest," Maduro said Tuesday. "It seemed to me very important to be able, face to face, discuss issues of maximum interest to Venezuela and the world. And I ratify, as I said to the delegation, all our will to advance in an agenda of well-being and peace through diplomacy, respect and the highest hope for a better world."
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | — CHARLIE KERR is now the National Air and Space Intelligence Center's liaison to the Pentagon. He most recently was a flight chief for the NASIC's Civil Aviation Intelligence Analysis Squadron. —ALEX GRAY , a national security official in the Trump administration, announced his candidacy to fill out the last four years of retiring Sen. JIM INHOFE's (R-Okla.) term. — KATE HEINZELMAN will be nominated as CIA general counsel, per the White House. She currently serves as chief counselor in the Office of the Attorney General at the Justice Department.
| | | — Office of the Director of National Intelligence: "Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community" — LISA ABEND, Time: " Meet the Foreign Volunteers Risking Their Lives to Defend Ukraine — and Europe" — ERIK SAND and SUZANNE FREEMAN, War on the Rocks: "The Russian Sanctions Regime and the Risk of Catastrophic Success"
| | | — House Armed Services Committee, 9 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: "National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific Region — with JOHN C. AQUILINO, PAUL J. LACAMERA and ELY RATNER" — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: "A Look at America's Policy Challenges for the Next Decade — with ADAM SCHIFF and more" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: "Cybersecurity Considerations for Data Localization Regulation — with VICTORIA BAINES, JAMES ANDREW LEWIS and PETER SWIRE" — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: "The Russian War in Ukraine: The Situation After Two Weeks — with MICHAEL KOFMAN, OLENA LENNON and MYKHAILO MINAKOV" — The Stimson Center and The Washington Foreign Law Society, 12:30 p.m.: "Acts of War? Accountability for Cyberattacks in Ukraine — with JUAN ANDRES GUERRERO-SAADE, MICHAEL TEODORI and LIIS VIHUL" — The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: "Navigating the New Strategic Realities of Space — with JAMES DICKINSON" — The American Security Project, 2 p.m.: " Crisis in Ukraine — with CATHERINE ASHTON"
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