Wednesday, March 9, 2022

☕️ Low energy

Starbucks, Coca-Cola, and McDonald's head for the exits.
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Morning Brew

The Ridge

Good morning. With spring approaching, now is the time to start reaching out to your friends with pools.

In our experience, the best way to reconnect without seeming too desperate for pool access is to give people something of value in return, something that could really help them stay informed about the world.

Something like Morning Brew. Use this link to spread the word to all your friends and, while we don't have a pool for you to use, we do have awesome swag you can get for free just by sharing the newsletter.

Neal Freyman, Jamie Wilde, Matty Merritt

MARKETS

Nasdaq

12,795.55

S&P

4,170.70

Dow

32,632.64

10-Year

1.848%

Bitcoin

$38,740.56

Chevron

$170.53

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 7:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Rising commodity prices + slowing growth due to the war in Ukraine = bad news for stocks, which fell (again) yesterday. If there's anyone getting a boost from surging oil prices, it's energy companies.
  • Ukraine: The besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis as food, water, and medicine supplies dry up. Russia's economy, meanwhile, is deteriorating. Fitch cut the country's credit rating by six notches and said a debt default is imminent.

ENERGY

The US to Russian energy

Jake Gyllenhaal waving goodbye The Late Late Show/CBS via Giphy

President Biden announced yesterday that the US would ban imports of Russian oil, natural gas, and other energy sources in order to inflict more economic damage on the Russian economy for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. "We will not be part of subsidizing Putin's war," Biden said.

Russia is the third biggest oil producer in the world (behind the US and Saudi Arabia), and its energy exports are one of the few economic lifelines it has left following a tidal wave of other sanctions.

The move represents a turning point in the financial war against Russia for a couple of reasons.

1. It will have direct impacts on Americans. Less oil supply → higher oil prices → higher gas prices. And higher gas prices are certainly upon us: The average price per gallon in the US hit a record of $4.17 yesterday (up 55 cents in a week), and it's likely to surge even more before it gets better. Biden admitted that the decision "is not without costs here at home," he said.

2. The West isn't fully united. While Western countries have been more in harmony than a Tufts a cappella group in applying other sanctions against Russia, Europe did not join the US in immediately banning Russian energy exports. The UK will fully wind down Russian oil imports by the end of the year, and the EU said it will shrink its Russian gas imports by two-thirds over the same time frame.

Biden's not mad about it, saying that European reluctance to institute an immediate ban is understandable given the Continent's dependence on Russian oil. "We can take this step when others cannot," Biden said, referring to the fact that Russia only accounted for 3% of the US' crude oil imports in 2020 (as opposed to 25% for the EU).

So what now?

While the shock to the US' oil supply won't be catastrophic, the Biden administration will still look to plug the gap.

Expect US oil producers to ramp up production. And another, more controversial plan is in the works: to bring in oil from two heavily sanctioned nations, Venezuela and Iran. A US delegation traveled to Venezuela last weekend to chat, and a new Iran nuclear deal could be agreed to shortly, giving a boost to Iran's oil exports.

Zoom out: Europe's inability to ban Russian oil and gas has been a come-to-Jesus moment that it needs to wean itself off its Russian energy addiction. Yesterday, the EU drew up a goal to completely stop buying Russian fossil fuels by 2030.—NF

        

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Apple event Apple

Apple held its first launch event of the year. It offered no reason to go camp in line at your local Apple store, but the announcements included: a new iPad Air, Mac Studio desktop, $1,599 27-inch monitor, and $429 iPhone SE. Over in streaming, Apple TV+ struck a deal with MLB to air Friday night regular season games and a 24/7 livestream program (whenever baseball returns). Also, iPhone 13 and 13 Pro are getting a green colorway, which Tim Cook seemed really stoked about.

Most Russians support the war in Ukraine. 58% of Russian people approve of President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, while 23% oppose it, according to a poll taken by independent survey research organizations last week. That result is flipped for young people aged 18–24. In that group, 39% oppose the operation, and 29% are for it.

South Korea's "Squid Game election" is today. The country's presidential election earned its Netflix-inspired nickname after the two leading candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk Yeol, spent months calling each other names, digging up scandals, and filing lawsuits. The race is extremely tight, and many speculate that the loser will be incarcerated. But the winner won't be getting out of jail free: They'll face a rough start trying to reboot one of the world's biggest economies and contending with hostile neighbor North Korea.

        

GEOPOLITICS

Americana heads for the Russian exits

McDonald's arch flickering with Francis Scialabba

Three of the most American brands just pulled their iconic yellow arches, frappuccinos, and soda-drinking polar bears out of Russia. Starbucks and Coca-Cola said yesterday they would temporarily end all business in the country, and McDonald's, which had come to symbolize Russia's opening up to the West post-Soviet Union, is McLeaving as well. All three brands condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

  • McDonald's will take the biggest financial hit. 9% of McDonald's global revenue comes from the country, and it'll still pay the salaries of about 62,000 workers at 850 shuttered locations.
  • Russia's not that important for Coca-Cola. In fact, the country is one of the few areas where PepsiCo is more dominant, per CNBC.

So what's up with Pepsi? It said yesterday it'll stop selling its beverages in Russia and halt all capital investment, advertising, and promotional activities, but will continue selling essentials like milk.

Meanwhile, some multinationals plan to stick it out. Japan-based clothing brand Uniqlo said it wouldn't shut down any of its 49 stores in the country because even though founder Tadashi Yanai is opposed to war, he told a Japanese newspaper, "Clothing is a necessity of life."

Here's a running list of which retailers have pressed pause in Russia.—MM

        

TOGETHER WITH THE RIDGE

Upgrade your pocket game (and pocket some savings)

The Ridge

At any given time, most people's pockets are filled with a cluttered collection of anything from grocery receipts to loose bills to tangled keys, even the occasional gummy bear (score!).

But friends, today's the day you say "NO!" to pocket calamity and "HECK YES!" to pocket perfection.

The Ridge has been making modern pocket essentials for 9 years now, including their flagship wallets—designed to be minimalist, slim, durable, and downright sexy.

And on the 9-year anniversary of that success, they've launched their brand-spankin'-new KeyCase: a devilish little thing made with innovative materials (such as Forged Ember, Burnt Titanium, and Black Damascus) and designed to secure up to six keys.

Nine years, 2 million products sold, 40,000 5-star reviews, and—to celebrate—up to 40% off this week only.

RETAIL

Lulu wants your feet too

Five Lululemon shoes Lululemon

Imagine the power move of walking into brunch dressed head-to-toe in Lululemon. That's no longer just a pipe dream for hot millennials because the athleisure brand is getting into footwear. Lululemon's first pair of women's running shoes will be available March 22 for the very-Lululemon price of $148, and it'll release four other styles (no cowboy boots…yet) later this year.

It might not have been a coincidence that the announcement fell on International Women's Day. While more dudes have been rocking Lulu's ABC pants over the years, women still accounted for 69% of Lululemon's revenue in 2020. And when it came to sneakers, Lululemon's Chief Product Officer Sun Choe said, "We intentionally started with women first."

The brand will need to find a way to stand out from the pack. Sneakers have become a highly competitive category, with legacy brands Nike and Adidas as well as upstarts like Allbirds all fighting over the same feet. And while annual sales for sneakers jumped 20% from 2020 to 2021, that growth is expected to slow down drastically this year.—MM

For more in-depth retail analysis, check out Retail Brew.

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

London Metal Exchange The London Metal Exchange. Leon Neal/Getty Images.

Stat: Hope you don't know anyone who's shorting nickel futures, because one Chinese firm that did, Tsingshan Holding Group, took a paper loss of $8 billion on Monday, per the WSJ. Nickel prices shot up as much as 250% in two days due to concerns over Russia's supply, and that's simply too much volatility for investors to handle. The London Metal Exchange suspended nickel trading through the rest of the week.

Quote: "We are sorry."

Shell apologized for buying Russian oil last Friday, admitting "we are acutely aware that our decision…was not the right one." The UK-based company said it would stop buying Russian crude immediately and close down all of its service stations in the country.

Read: How a YouTube channel is transforming a remote village in Bangladesh. (Rest of World)

Ask: Are you planning to cut back on driving due to the rise in gas prices? Vote below and we'll post the results tomorrow.

Yes

No

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Elon Musk asked a judge to throw out a settlement Tesla reached with the SEC in 2018 that requires him to get some tweets preapproved.
  • The US rejected a surprise announcement by Poland to hand over its MiG-29 fighter jets for Ukraine to use, saying the plan could potentially spark a broader conflict with Russia.
  • Better.com, the online mortgage company that infamously fired 900 employees over Zoom last year, has now laid off more than one-third of its workforce (about 3,000 jobs).
  • Why the war in Ukraine is a critical moment for crypto.
  • NFL news: Seattle QB Russell Wilson is reportedly being traded to the Denver Broncos, and Aaron Rodgers said he'll return to the Green Bay Packers.

BREW'S BETS

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Complement vs. compliment: A proofreader gives a list of words that are nearly, but not quite, the same.

Book recs: Here are 21 novels that people said they wish they could read for the first time again.

How the war in Ukraine will affect your finances. This video explains how geopolitical events throughout history have shaped markets, and helps you understand how the current crisis will affect your investment portfolio.

*This is sponsored advertising content.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Word Search: Hope the Lulu story got you pumped for today's Word Search, which is sportswear logo-themed. Play it here.

Reality TV trivia

Survivor returns for its 42nd season tonight, but it's not the longest-running US reality series by number of years on air. Do you know what is?

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ANSWER

Cops, which is going on 33 years

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Jamie Wilde, and Matty Merritt

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