Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Harris steps in the middle of a NATO standoff

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Mar 09, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade

Presented by Emergent

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DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — Lawmakers unveiled a bipartisan government funding deal after months and months of haggling. More on this in a second, but first … 

A BIG MOMENT FOR HARRIS — At 7:30 a.m., VP KAMALA HARRIS departs for Warsaw, Poland, where she will be thrust into the middle of the first major standoff between NATO countries since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The backstory:

  • Ukraine wants more planes — specifically Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets, which its pilots know how to fly. Poland (as well as Bulgaria and Slovakia) has them, and shortly after the conflict began, a top EU official said Poland was willing to donate them.
  • But the decision to transfer the military hardware has been hampered by the same fraught question that shadows every effort by the U.S. and Europe to punish Russia and aid Ukraine: Will it escalate the conflict in a way that makes NATO a combatant against Russia?
  • Despite the EU promise, Poland repeatedly said there was no transfer in the works.
  • Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, frustrated that the West has steadfastly refused his request for a no-fly zone, made the Polish aircraft transfer a top priority, including in a weekend conversion with President JOE BIDEN and in a Zoom with senators and House members Saturday. Key members of Congress immediately pressed the Biden administration to facilitate a deal to transfer the Polish planes to Ukraine and backfill Poland with American F-16s. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN on Sunday said he was working on it.
  • But there was resistance inside the administration. "A senior administration official told POLITICO that the U.S. intelligence community and the Defense Department have been opposed to the transfer of the Polish planes to Ukraine," report Paul McLeary and Alex Ward, "due to the complications in getting them over the border and into the hands of Ukrainian pilots."

Then, on Tuesday, this shocking announcement from Poland, via press release: "The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy — immediately and free of charge — all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America." The statement added that Poland also "requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities" and asked "other NATO Allies — owners of MiG-29 jets — to act in the same vein."

American and European officials were gobsmacked. Undersecretary of State VICTORIA NULAND, testifying before Congress when the announcement came, said that it "was a surprise move by the Poles."

Later, Pentagon spokesman JOHN KIRBY rejected the Polish proposal . "The prospect of fighter jets 'at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America' departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance," he said. "It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it." Noting "the difficult logistical challenges it presents," he added, "we do not believe Poland's proposal is a tenable one."

Some critics disagreed, including former U.S. Ambassador to NATO KURT VOLKER — who, incidentally, will be briefing GOP senators today at the invitation of Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL. ("I won't be saying anything different in private than I have been saying in public," Volker, who supports a limited no-fly zone, told Playbook.)

With tough sanctions in place, a Russian oil and gas embargo announced by Biden, and a no-fly zone ruled out, Zelenskyy's desperate plea for the Polish MiGs is the most significant outstanding request from Ukraine.

Which brings us back to today …

Harris will land in Poland on a mission to rally NATO against Russian aggression. But her visit could now be dominated by the question of why the U.S. and Poland have fumbled the transfer deal.

On a call previewing the trip, a senior administration official conceded the issue would be front and center. "We have been in dialogue with the Poles for some time about how best to provide a variety of security assistance to Ukraine," the official said. "And that's a dialogue that absolutely will continue up to and as part of the vice president's trip."

Schedule highlights: On Thursday, Harris is holding a bilateral meeting with Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA and PM MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI, and a separate meeting with Canadian PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU, who is also in Warsaw. She'll also meet with some of the thousands of Ukrainian refugees in the country. In Romania on Friday, Harris will meet with President KLAUS IOHANNIS.

It is rare that a VP steps into the middle of such an important diplomatic negotiation. Ukraine is desperate for air power. The Poles have kicked the decision to the Americans (or tried to). The question of whether a transfer can happen without triggering a dangerous escalation is unanswered. The world will be watching how Harris handles this delicate moment. If she unlocks a U.S.-Poland-Ukraine transfer deal, it would be a monumental foreign policy success for someone who has few to speak of in her time as a senator and VP.

Other top reads on Ukraine and Russia …

  • Gas prices hit a record average Tuesday: $4.17 per gallon. More from the AP on how Biden is responding to that political liability.
  • Biden "unsuccessfully tried to arrange calls" with the "de facto leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the U.S. was working to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices," the WSJ scooped.

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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ABOUT LAST NIGHT: AN OMNIBUS DEAL (FINALLY) RELEASED — After months and months of negotiating, and three short-term spending patches, congressional leaders released the text of a bipartisan $1.5 trillion government funding deal overnight around 1:30 a.m. The House will take up the bill this morning — and also consider a four-day so-called continuing resolution just in case the Senate needs more time to get this bill to Biden's desk.

Funding is currently set to run out Friday at midnight. And House Democrats are headed to Philly for their annual three-day retreat while senators will also huddle for one-day retreats here in D.C., leaving little time to clear this kahuna 2,700-page document.

ABOUT THAT BILL: Our colleagues Jennifer Scholtes and Connor O'Brien have more on what's actually in the legislation:

— It increases domestic spending by about 7% to $730 billion, what Senate Appropriations Chair PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.) said in a statement was "the largest increase in non-defense discretionary spending in four years." That's certainly welcome news for Democrats, who will finally see Biden's spending priorities override DONALD TRUMP spending priorities that have been extended for a full year after his presidency. Full Leahy statement here

— But it also substantially boosts defense spending by about 6% to $782 billion, far more than Biden's initial $715 billion request. To the chagrin of progressives, that's a win for defense hawks. And in a statement that posted overnight, McConnell hailed this plus-up as a "major step forward that our national security needs … [at] a dangerous time for the United States and our partners." Full McConnell statement here

— The bill includes $14 billion in Ukraine assistance, a sweetener that's expected to help this massive bill go down and which is well over the amount the White House initially sought.

— And about $16 billion in pandemic funding, which is less than the White House wanted but will nonetheless be celebrated by Democrats. At the GOP's insistence, however, it would be paid for, in part, by clawing back unspent money from the Paycheck Protection Program aimed at helping businesses through the pandemic.

— It revives earmarks that GOP lawmakers banned about a decade ago.

— And it would also reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act, which lapsed in 2019.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — STEVE CLEMONS is joining Project Coda, the temporary name for the global news startup founded by former Bloomberg CEO JUSTIN SMITH and former NYT media columnist BEN SMITH.

Clemons will serve as editor-at-large and run its "global live journalism operations." He is currently editor-at-large for The Hill, and well-known in Washington both for creating live events — an increasingly important source of revenue for many news publications — and his private salons featuring prominent elected officials. (He was recently made a Chevalier in France's Legion of Honor at a party at the French ambassador's residence that featured so many key figures of 2021 Washington life that the scene could be the opener for the next MARK LEIBOVICH book.)

Clemons is no stranger to the Smiths.

  • Back in 2011, Ben Smith wrote about him for POLITICO, describing Clemons as "a self-made, uncredentialed blogger and social butterfly, intellectual entrepreneur, name-dropper and media networker" (all true!) and "the spiritual descendant of great Washington hostesses like PAMELA HARRIMAN" (also true!).

Clemons promised the new venture would bring "high quality journalism that respects its audience's intelligence."

This is the second hire by Project Coda, which has been making the rounds in D.C. and Manhattan raising money and meeting with reportorial talent. CAITLIN ROMAN left The Athletic recently to serve as head of product for Coda.

Listen to our January Deep Dive podcast with Clemons, in which he explains how a cover story in L.A. magazine about the maître d' at Spago changed his life.

 

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BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:

— 11 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 2 p.m.: Biden and Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO will meet with business leaders and a bipartisan group of governors to discuss competitiveness legislation.

— 6:15 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks at the Democratic Senators Issues Conference at Howard University.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 1 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 9 a.m. Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY will hold his weekly press briefing at 11:30 a.m. Speaker NANCY PELOSI will hold hers at 1:15 p.m.

THE SENATE is out.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Two women watch U.S. President Joe Biden making statements on a news channel in a subway station turned into a shelter in Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, March 8, 2022.

At a subway station turned into a makeshift shelter in Kyiv, people watch President Joe Biden on the news Tuesday. | Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

ICE PICK IN PERIL OVER ABUSE ALLEGATIONS — On Tuesday night, Senate Democratic leadership postponed a planned procedural vote on Biden's nominee to lead Immigration and Customs Enforcement, ED GONZALEZ, "amid allegations of domestic abuse that could imperil his nomination," write Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett. 

A POSTAL SERVICE LIFELINE — The Senate "passed legislation that would shore up the U.S. Postal Service and ensure six-day-a-week mail delivery," AP's Lisa Mascaro reports. "The long-fought postal overhaul has been years in the making and comes amid widespread complaints about mail service slowdowns."

JUDICIARY SQUARE

COLLINS KEEPING QUIET ON KBJ UNTIL HEARINGS FINISH — Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) "had a favorable review of Supreme Court nominee Judge KETANJI BROWN JACKSON after meeting with her for 90 minutes Tuesday," our Marianne LeVine reports, "but she's staying mum on her support until the confirmation hearings are over."

Following their one-on-one, Collins called Jackson "impressive." "Obviously, I don't agree with her on every decision that she has rendered," the Maine Republican said. "But I felt that what I did get from her is that she takes a very thorough, careful approach in applying the law to the facts of the case, and that is what I want to see in a judge."

ALL POLITICS

TRUMP SOURS ON BUDD — Rep. TED BUDD, the North Carolina Republican Trump unexpectedly endorsed for U.S. Senate last summer, "has fallen in recent polling and lagged in fundraising, leaving him chasing the front-runner, former Gov. PAT MCCRORY" ahead of the state's May primary, reports Natalie Allison. Also in the mix: former Rep. MARK WALKER, "who is competing with Budd for the most conservative, pro-Trump voters."

At the RNC donor dinner Saturday, Trump suggested unease about Budd's prospects of making it through the primary. "How are we doing? How's Ted Budd doing? OK?" Trump asked North Carolina GOP Chair MICHAEL WHATLEY from the stage. "All right, we gotta get Walker out of that race. Get him out of the race, Michael, right?"

PENCE BETS ON ADELSON — Former VP MIKE PENCE "met for dinner with Dr. MIRIAM ADELSON, the influential GOP mega-donor, at her home in Jerusalem on Monday night," Jewish Insider's Matthew Kassel reports. Pence also visited SHELDON ADELSON's grave on the Mount of Olives.

ROMNEY UNLIKELY TO ENDORSE LEE — Sen. MITT ROMNEY said Tuesday that he plans to "stay out" of fellow Utah Republican Sen. MIKE LEE's 2022 reelection campaign against independent EVAN MCMULLIN, per Burgess Everett and Anthony Adragna. Said Romney: "I don't get involved in primaries and I don't endorse. I just stay out of them, particularly between two friends."

 

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JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

FOLLOWING THE MONEY — WaPo's Josh Dawsey, Jacqueline Alemany and Tom Hamburger detail how the House Jan. 6 committee has been "tracing every dollar that was raised and spent on false claims that the 2020 election was stolen."

"Committee investigators have interviewed low-level Trump campaign aides who wrote fundraising pitches, grilled Trump advisers about who may have personally profited from the post-election cash haul and even dialed up the owners of a portable-toilet company to find out who paid them to put toilets on the Ellipse the day of the insurrection.

"The questioning is part of an effort by the committee's 'green team' to scrutinize whether the Trump campaign, its affiliated super PACs, the RNC and protest organizers knowingly used false claims that the election was stolen to dupe donors and raise large sums of cash."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE NEXT BIG ABORTION BAN? — Missouri's Republican-held state legislature is considering a measure that would "allow private citizens to sue anyone who helps a Missouri resident obtain an abortion out of state, using the novel legal strategy behind the restrictive law in Texas that since September has banned abortions in that state after six weeks of pregnancy," reports WaPo's Caroline Kitchener.

THE LAST OF THE MASK MANDATES — CNN's Theresa Waldrop and Paradise Afshar: "Hawaii's mask mandate will expire March 25, Gov. DAVID IGE said Tuesday, making it the last U.S. state to announce its face-cover requirement will be dropped."

TAX REBATE FOR HIGH GAS PRICES? — In his annual State of the State address Tuesday, California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM "promised a tax rebate for Californians as high gasoline prices weigh on the minds of voters and his Republican critics," write LAT's Taryn Luna and Phil Willon.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

VENEZUELA'S 'POTENTIAL TURNING POINT' — "Venezuela's authoritarian government on Tuesday released at least two imprisoned Americans, a potential turning point in the Biden administration's relationship with Russia's staunchest ally in the Western Hemisphere," write NYT's Anatoly Kurmanaev, Natalie Kitroeff and Kenneth Vogel. "The release followed a rare trip by a high-level U.S. delegation to Venezuela over the weekend to meet with President NICOLÁS MADURO, part of a broader Biden administration agenda in autocratic countries that may be rethinking their ties with [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

 

DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Chuck Schumer considered breaking out into Stevie Wonder's "Signed, Sealed, Delivered" after the passage of the USPS overhaul.

Mark Warner played the part of dogged Hill reporter pestering Susan Collins for her thoughts on Ketanji Brown Jackson.

John Hickenlooper got the "Golden Gavel" award for having presided over the Senate for 100 hours.

LEDE OF THE DAY: "A Georgia man was sentenced to three years in prison after illegally obtaining a coronavirus relief loan and using more than $57,000 of the money to buy a collectible Pokemon card, authorities said Monday." More from the AP

IN MEMORIAM — "Renee Poussaint, former 7News anchor and journalist, passes away at age 77," by ABC7's Alison Starling: "Renee Poussaint was co-anchor of the 6 and 11 pm news on Channel 7 beginning in 1978 and held that position for more than a decade. … A trailblazing journalist, Pouissant began her career in broadcasting in 1970 working in Chicago, ultimately substituting for Peter Jennings on ABC World News Tonight."

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The University of Chicago's Institute of Politics is announcing its spring quarter fellows: Joel Benenson, Perry Bacon Jr., Keisha Lance Bottoms, Sarah Longwell, Neil Newhouse and Erin Simpson.

Julia Krieger started at Treasury on Monday as a senior spokesperson, working on international affairs, climate, cybersecurity and tax policy. She most recently was comms director for the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

MEDIA MOVES — The D.C. Chapter of the Asian American Journalists Association has chosen its new board: POLITICO's Annie Yu is president and Nicholas Wu is VP of comms, WCP's Kelyn Soong is VP of engagement, Law360's Sameer Rao and WaPo's Moriah Balingit are national board representatives, AJ+'s Hangda Zhang is treasurer, VOA's Steve Herman is VP of broadcast, and ABC's Em Nguyen is VP of digital media.

NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced several new nominees: Kate Heinzelman as general counsel of the CIA, Joseph Goffman as assistant EPA administrator for the Office of Air and Radiation, Paul Rosen as assistant Treasury secretary for investment security in the Office of International Affairs, Evelyn Wang as director of the Advanced Research Project Agency – Energy at DOE, and David Applegate as director of the U.S. Geological Survey at Interior.

TRANSITIONS — American Bridge 21st Century is adding Matthew Urquijo as digital rapid response manager and Thomas Hatfield as multimedia specialist. Urquijo previously worked for New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, and Hatfield previously was video editor on Mark Kelly's 2020 Senate campaign.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) (5-0) and Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) (6-0) … Kimberly Guilfoyle Raj Shah of the Rockefeller Foundation … John Bisognano Tiffany MullerSarah Swinehart Massey … Newsy's Andrew RaffertyJake Lipsett … POLITICO's Leah NylenWarren Rojas … NBC's Doug Adams Katie SchoettlerPolly Zintak Desien … Time's Haley Sweetland EdwardsTom Matzzie … GM's Reagan Payne … E&E News' Adam Aton and Laura Bamford Harry Fones … Meta's David GinsbergBailey (La Sage) Mailloux Lauren CozziRyan DiffleyGraham BrookieRussell DrapkinTony HarringtonGabriela Hasaj Didem NisanciTerri Fish … former Sen. James Buckley (Conservative-N.Y.) (99) … Bianca Padró Ocasio Sadie Weiner Charlie Gibson David Hume Kennerly Michael KinsleyLinnaea Honl-Stuenkel

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