| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Joseph Gedeon | | 
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, stands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcoming ceremony in Beijing, June 8, 2018. | Greg Baker/Pool Photo via AP, File | With help from Paul McLeary Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint "Is China about to help Russia defeat Ukraine?" NatSec Daily has heard iterations of that question swirling around Washington over the last 24 hours, sparked by revelations that Russia asked China for military and other support for the invasion. That surprising news broke hours before national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN was set to meet his Chinese counterpart YANG JIECHI in Rome today only added more fuel to the fire. A senior administration official, speaking to reporters about the face-to-face, wouldn't go into specifics about "what China may be considering, or what kind of support it could provide" — a subtle indicator that Beijing hasn't assisted Russia yet. The readout of the meeting was as bland as could be. It's still unclear what Russia precisely asked for, though some reports indicate Moscow directly requested drones . But if China grants the Kremlin's wish — in any form — experts say the war and the Washington-Beijing relationship will have entered a new phase. The Biden administration is clearly concerned about what China might do. If Beijing offers material support to Russia in Ukraine, "there'll likely be consequences for China in that regard," a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Monday, echoing what Sullivan said on the Sunday shows . "We have seen China basically give tacit approval to what Russia is doing by refusing to join sanctions" and blaming the West for Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's decision to invade," the official continued. Lawmakers received a classified briefing last week in which U.S. officials discussed Russia's request, though they made clear "we have yet to see indication" as to whether China will come to Russia's aid, a House Democratic member told NatSec Daily. "It's not China wanting to help, it is the other way around. Russia wants China's help." There are further mixed messages regarding China's intentions. In the Financial Times, DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO reported today that "the U.S. has told allies that China signalled its willingness to provide military assistance to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine," based on secret American diplomatic cables on the issue. But U.S. News' PAUL SHINKMAN noted a video published in the Chinese state-run Global Times which implied the opposite. "[A]s a major military industrial power, Russia does not need to ask China to provide substantial military assistance for the limited scale war in Ukraine," said HU XIJIN, who until December was the executive editor of the regime-aligned paper. "China is not obligated to promise nor to export arms to Russia." Hu could be obfuscating what China truly intends, of course, though analysts told Shinkman this may be an instance where the mouthpiece and policy align. "To provide arms now with everyone watching is quite unthinkable," said SUN YUN, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C. We're hearing mixed and contradictory things about China's intentions. But most sources tell us that Beijing has made the decision to assist Russia, though other sources in the know say that's simply not true. Seems like some different talking points are snaking their way through D.C. If China does give weapons to Russia to assist its efforts in Ukraine, experts fear we'll have entered a whole new world. "My guess is that we will look back at this period as the point at which the relationship changed permanently. And not for the better. Buckle up," tweeted ZACK COOPER, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former Pentagon and White House official. The Chinese could relatively supply spare parts for compatible weapons systems and small drones, since many Chinese weapons systems come straight from Russian designs, including aircraft, helicopters, and armored personnel carriers. There is also plenty of "basic compatibility" between Chinese and Russian air-to-air and air-to-ground systems, along with "dumb bombs" and artillery, said DEAN CHENG, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center. And don't forget that China is the world's largest producer of small, off-the-shelf drones. "Ukraine is demonstrating how useful even small handheld drones (the kind you could buy at Target) can be for adjusting mortar and artillery fire," Cheng said. "DJI is a Chinese company and one of the largest drone makers in the world. Russian access to hundreds of such drones would provide a greater level of surveillance and transparency of the Ukraine battlefield."
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost more than 12,000 personnel, as well as 389 tanks, 1,249 armored combat vehicles, 150 artillery systems, 77 warplanes, 90 helicopters, 617 vehicles and eight drones. ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia has launched more than 900 missiles into Ukraine since the start of the war. (Senior U.S. defense official) — Russia launched "several dozen" air-launched cruise missiles at the Yavoriv military base and international training center over the weekend from bombers flying inside Russian airspace. (Senior U.S. defense official) — Russia "continues to conduct systematic combat operations with bombers in order to destroy the military and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. [R]ussians are using high-power[ed] ammunition and indiscriminate action on civilians." ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Mercenary "recruitment centers have been opened in Syria, where over a thousand people have been recruited in recent days, about 400 people have already arrived in the Russian Federation." ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — Australia: Sanctioned 33 Russian oligarchs, including Chelsea FC owner ROMAN ABRAMOVICH and Gazprom chief ALEXEY MILLER, putting Canberra in line with Washington and London. (Australian Federal Register of Legislation) — Japan: The Financial Services Agency and Ministry of Finance jointly ordered a pause on processing cryptocurrency for Russian assets on Monday, and penalties for violators. (Japan Financial Services Agency) FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HOUSE DEMS URGE DOD TO MAKE CIVCAS REFORMS: Nearly 50 House Democrats wrote to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to detail how they'd like to see the Pentagon's civilian casualty reforms proceed. They have eight main requests:
- Appoint staff "at sufficiently senior levels … solely devoted to civilian harm mitigation policies, including analyzing trends, compiling and dispersing lessons learned, and reviewing investigations
- "[E]xamine targeting processes to ensure tactical and operational improvements comply with the Law of Armed Conflict principles of distinction and proportionality"
- "[I]mplement a standardized civilian harm reporting process that enables the Department to track and analyze civilian harm in the future"
- "[E]nsure full, independent, and transparent assessment and investigations of all credible reports of civilian harm, including past reports that may have been erroneously dismissed"
- "[A] new comprehensive policy that addresses all civilian harm response options and incorporates dialogue with affected family members and public or private acknowledgement of harm"
- Congress needs an "update on how the Department plans to capture good practices and feed them back into operational planning and learning"
- "[P]rovide meaningful accountability to civilian victims and survivors of U.S. operations by publicly and transparently acknowledging deaths and injuries, providing amends or redress, and appropriately holding civilian leaders and military commanders responsible for their actions, including by addressing findings of wrongdoing through disciplinary measures or prosecutions"
- "[T]he Center [for Excellence] be empowered and operationalized as the central hub for many of the issues we've outlined here, especially since there is currently no full-time focal point for civilian harm issues at the Pentagon"
The letter, led by Reps. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.), JASON CROW (D-Colo.) and SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) and signed onto by the chairs of the House Armed Services, Intelligence and Foreign Affairs committees, is a major sign of how President JOE BIDEN's own party will push the Pentagon to take civilian casualties seriously. Gallego told NatSec Daily that he plans to incorporate discussions about civilian casualties into a quarterly review his Intelligence and Special Operations subcommittee holds with Pentagon officials. Before then, he aims to hold a hearing — "I can't tell you exactly when" — with key military and defense aides. But because Austin initiated a civilian casualty review, following reports in The New York Times over strikes in Syria and Afghanistan, Gallego says he's "a little more optimistic" than in the past that DOD will execute needed reforms. Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), another signatory, said he had fought with the Defense Department when he served as a top human rights official in the Obama-era State Department. Back then, Pentagon officials convinced the administration that only they had the expertise to police themselves on civilian casualties. Now a lawmaker, Malinowski told NatSec Daily: "I'm not going to make the same mistake twice." IRAN CLAIMS MISSILE BARRAGE IN IRAQ: Iran claimed responsibility for missile strikes in the northern Iraqi region of Kurdistan on Sunday — nearly hitting a U.S. consulate. Tehran said the barrage "was retaliation for an Israeli strike in Syria that killed two members of its Revolutionary Guard" days earlier, per The Associated Press. No injuries have been reported. Both Baghdad and Washington condemned the action. "The strikes were an outrageous violation of Iraq's sovereignty. No U.S. facilities were damaged or personnel injured, and we have no indications the attack was directed at the United States," State Department spokesperson NED PRICE told reporters in Washington. "The semi-official Tasnim news agency quoted an unnamed source as saying Iran fired 10 Fateh missiles, including several Fateh-110 missiles, which have a range of about 186 miles," the AP reported. The strike comes as the U.S. and other world powers seek to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which hit a snag over Russia's demand that sanctions on Moscow not infringe on its trade with Tehran. It's possible this strike will further put pressure on the Biden administration not to reenter the pact until Iran agrees to curb its missile program. EU AMB: EUROPE'S ENERGY DECOUPLING FROM RUSSIA TO CONTINUE: STAVROS LAMBRINIDIS, the EU ambassador to the U.S., told our own DANIEL LIPPMAN that even if Russia withdraws from Ukraine, Europe is done with its dependency on Russian energy. "You can expect that Europe's commitment to decouple from dependence on Russian oil and gas and from fossil fuels more broadly will not diminish but increase in the next immediate years," he told Lippman on the sidelines of SXSW in Austin. When pressed if the gradual severing of energy ties will continue regardless of what happens in Ukraine, he agreed. "The EU has committed to moving to a decoupling of oil and gas and to renewable energy very quickly and this is for us a homegrown energy. Europe can never be geostrategically dependent if it does not develop its own sources of energy for the future," said Lambrinidis, "We do not extract gas and oil in the European Union. But we do have the most innovative companies that are at the cutting edge of sustainable energy technologies and we are going to be massively supporting those companies to create that technology for us." He noted that the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council will meet in May to coordinate how both Europe and America can invest together in green technologies such as hydrogen. "Hydrogen is a really big deal, and it requires massive investment and we're going to be seeing how we can do it together, Americans and Europeans and the same thing goes for methane so this is not just a European commitment for our own geo-strategic interest but also something that Americans and Europeans can work together," Lambrinidis said. "And when we put our two economies together and our scientists together and our companies together, this is going to be a vastly accelerated transition." U.S. CANCELED MILITARY TRAINING IN UKRAINE: In case you missed it Sunday, take the time to read this story from our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN, ERIN BANCO, ANDREW DESIDERIO and PAUL McLEARY about how the White House scrapped a Pentagon push to send a "few hundred" trainers into Ukraine last December — months before the war. "White House officials had concerns about the deployment and the troops were never sent, according to two people familiar with the two December briefings with lawmakers and congressional aides. They also said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin planned to directly press President Joe Biden to approve the mission," they wrote. "A senior military official told House lawmakers that the White House was concerned that sending the troops would escalate the already tense situation with Russia, according to the two people. A third congressional official told POLITICO that a Pentagon official briefed the Senate Armed Services Committee that plans had been scrapped due to those concerns. The Biden administration hoped diplomacy might still work, and feared an influx of U.S. troops could scuttle those efforts," they continued. As Alex tweeted yesterday, this kind of move is consistent with the Biden administration's efforts not to raise Russia's hackles. Beyond the block of special operations trainers, the White House had the Pentagon delay a hypersonic missile test before a Biden-Putin summit last year and now is openly urging European allies not to send fighter jets to Ukraine.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin's LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn more. | | | IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and our new fellow @JGedeon1.
| | | ESTONIAN PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR NO-FLY ZONE: Estonia's Parliament wants U.N. member states to "take immediate steps to establish a no-fly zone" over Ukraine, Fox News' BROOKE SINGMAN reported. That makes Estonia's parliament the first full governmental body of a NATO member calling for a military patrol over the skies over Ukraine (though individual officials in NATO countries, including in the U.S., are pushing for one). The U.S. and European nations have so far balked at the suggestion for fear of having NATO and Russian forces directly fight one another. Enforcing a no-fly zone, after all, could entail the downing of Russian fighter jets. But clearly Estonian members of parliament, known as the Riigikogu, feel differently. The Parliament "expresses its support to the defenders and the people of the state of Ukraine in their fight against the Russian Federation that has launched a criminal war, and calls on showing absolute support to Ukraine in its war for maintaining its freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity," members said in a Monday statement. "The Riigikogu asks the UN member states to take immediate steps to establish a no-fly zone in order to prevent massive civilian casualties in Ukraine," the body stated. "The Riigikogu urges all national parliaments to adopt statements that call on their governments to support the imposition of additional sanctions against the Russian Federation as well as the Republic of Belarus that participates in the aggression." This could be more symbolic than substantive. It's unclear if the Estonian government will push NATO to adopt the NFZ, but the Baltic states have usually been far out ahead of their fellow allies in pushing for more aggressive action toward Russia. UN CHIEF RECOGNIZES NUCLEAR THREAT: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said that a Russian nuclear attack "is now back within the realm of possibilities," in a Monday press conference. The consequences of the war going nuclear could be catastrophic: Russia is estimated to have around 6,000 warheads in its arsenal, making it the largest nuclear stockpile in the world. The United States is not lagging far behind, at more than 5,400 nukes. But back in late February, press secretary JEN PSAKI said the administration saw " no reason to change" the country's nuclear alert levels after Russia escalated their own system to high alert.
| | | |   | | | | | | MORE POLITICALLY MOTIVATED RANSOMWARE ATTACKS: Our friends over at "Weekly Cybersecurity" highlighted a new Accenture report that detailed an increase in ransomware attacks motivated by political leanings, not solely financial gain. "Accenture researchers said they've noticed more ransomware hackers show an interest in targeting Russian entities in support of Ukraine — an idea that is virtually unheard of considering Russian President Vladimir Putin's lax view on cybercrime inside his borders. The report also includes a poll question asked in XSS, a Russian-language cybercriminal forum, where 17 percent of participants said they were willing to target Russian entities — which the report characterized as 'surprisingly high,'" SAM SABIN wrote. "I spent almost 23 years with the FBI, and I never saw anything like this while I was there," said HOWARD MARSHALL, current managing director of Accenture Security and former deputy assistant director of the FBI's cyber division. Ransomware groups being motivated by politics, rather than money, could have dangerous outcomes, Marshall said, especially when paired with gangs' growing budgets for purchasing custom malware code or zero-day exploits to target security vulnerabilities organizations might not know about. "This is not just Russia we're talking about," Marshall said. "There is a global footprint of novice to expert hackers, some of them very sophisticated, that have now been spurred to action and think they have a cause worth fighting for."
| | | GERMANY TO BUY F-35S: Germany has decided to acquire nearly three dozen F-35A Lightning II fighter jets to replace its aging fleet of Tornados, German Defense Minister CHRISTINE LAMBRECHT announced Monday. "The F-35 offers a unique potential for cooperation with our NATO allies and other partners in Europe," she said, adding that Berlin will also upgrade its Eurofighters for electronic warfare. "There can be only one answer to Putin's aggression," INGO GERHARTZ , Germany's air force chief, said today. "Unity in NATO and a credible deterrent. This in particular means there is no alternative but to choose the F-35." Following the invasion of Ukraine, Germany vowed to spend 100 billion euros ($113 billion) on defense, reversing years of reluctance to plus-up its military budget. The opposition Left Party, however, is against this move. "We reject arming the Bundeswehr with new, nuclear-capable combat jets," ALI AL-DAILAMI , the party's deputy defense spokesperson, told reporters, warning that such acquisitions "fuel the risk of nuclear war in Europe.
| | | ZELENSKYY TO ADDRESS CONGRESS WEDNESDAY: Zelenskyy will virtually address the full Congress Wednesday at 9 a.m., Speaker of the House NANCY PELOSI and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER announced today. Zelenskyy is making the rounds, having just addressed the British Parliament last week. That he's invited to make these speeches underscores the level of commitment he has from NATO allies and the inspirational nature of his leadership two weeks into the war. Expect Zelenskyy to make the same requests of the U.S.: more sanctions on Russia, more weapons flowing into Ukraine and the establishment of a NATO-enforced no-fly zone. And expect him to place pressure on Biden to "do something" more.
| | | 49 GOP SENS WON'T SUPPORT IRAN DEAL: All but one Republican Senator announced they will not support America's reentry into the Iran nuclear deal — and will actively fight any efforts to do so. "The administration appears to have agreed to lift sanctions that were not even placed on Iran for its nuclear activities in the first place, but instead because of its ongoing support for terrorism and its gross abuses of human rights. The nuclear limitations in this new deal appear to be significantly less restrictive than the 2015 nuclear deal, which was itself too weak, and will sharply undermine U.S. leverage to secure an actually 'longer and stronger' deal," they wrote. If the U.S. signs on to an agreement that doesn't address Iran's support for terrorism or missile programs, among other things, "Republicans will do everything in our power to reverse it. Unless Iran ceases its support for terrorism, we will oppose removing and seek to reimpose any terrorism-related sanctions. And we will force the Senate to vote on any Administration effort to do so." Republicans have long opposed the deal, but their near unity in opposition could pose a challenge to Biden's reentry efforts, or at least spook Iran and other signatories that the U.S. may not remain a permanent party to the pact. Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) was the only holdout. "Condemning a deal that is not yet formulated is akin to condemning diplomacy itself, not a very thoughtful position," he told NatSec Daily.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn more. | | | | | | Our own Lippman sends in two NSC staffing moves: FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– NICOLE FASANO has returned to the NSC to temporarily serve in the role of deputy director for visits and diplomatic affairs through the summer while they search for a person to fill the role permanently. She serves as a protocol officer at the State Department. SECOND, BUT ALSO FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– JAMES KENNEDY has joined NSC as a director for legislative affairs. He was previously a congressional liaison officer at USAID.
| | | — VLORA ÇITAKU, New Lines Magazine: "In Pristina, Survivor's Guilt as Ukraine Fights" — STEVEN LEE MYERS and CHRIS BUCKLEY, The New York Times: " China Sees at Least One Winner Emerging From Ukraine War: China " — JOHANA BHUIYAN, The Guardian: "A US surveillance program tracks nearly 200,000 immigrants. What happens to their data?"
| | | — The Potomac Officers Club, 8:00 a.m.: " 2022 Border Protection Innovations and Technology Forum — with SHONNIE LYON, JARED OREN, THOMAS OVERACKER and more" — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 8:00 a.m.: "War in Ukraine: Implications for Japan and Security in Asia — with ICHIRO FUJISAKI, AKIO MIYAJIMA, MICHAL BARANOWSKI and more" — Veterans Affairs Department, 9:00 a.m.: "Advisory Committee on Disability Compensation" — The Center for Global Development, 9:00 a.m.: "Living Conditions in Afghanistan: New Evidence from a Welfare Monitoring Survey — with GHAZALA MANSURI, ALTHEA-MARIA RIVAS and OMAR JOYA" — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: "Posture of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command — with STEPHEN TOWNSEND and KENNETH MCKENZIE" — Commerce Department; Bureau of Industry and Security, 10:00 a.m.: " Regulations and Procedures Technical Advisory Committee" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:00 a.m.: "The Future of the U.S.-UK Intelligence Alliance — with JAMES DANOY, SAMANTHA CLARK, KARI BINGEN and more" — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:00 a.m.: "Correcting the Public Record: Reforming Federal and Presidential Records Management — with JONATHAN TURLEY, JASON R. BARON and ANNE WEISMANN" — The Middle East Institute, 10:00 a.m.: "Global Repercussions: Exporting the Israeli Surveillance Model — with ELIZA CAMPBELL, LARA FRIEDMAN, MONA SHTAYA and more" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10:00 a.m.: " Combatting Authoritarianism: U.S. Tools and Responses — with UZRA ZEYA and JENNIFER GODFREY" — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 10:00 a.m.: "Russia's Southern Game: NATO's Southern Flank after the Ukraine Invasion — with ANDREW LEBOVICH, MARK KATZ, PAULINE BAX and more" — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 1:30 p.m.: "Leadership Luncheon — with ROBERT SHARP and SUE GORDON" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:00 p.m.: "Nominations for Ambassador to Chile, coordinator of U.S. Government Activities to Combat HIV/AIDS Globally, Assistant Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development and Director of the Office of Foreign Missions— with BERNADETTE M. MEEHAN, JOHN N. NKENGASONG, MONDE MUYANGWA and more" — The Hudson Institute, 2:00 p.m.: "The U.S. Army in the Indo-Pacific Region — with JAMES C. MCCONVILLE, PATRICK M. CRONIN, and CHRISTINE WORMUTH" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 5:15 p.m.: "Aiding Ukraine: How the U.S. can give Ukrainians the means to fight — with REP. MICHAEL MCCAUL, JOHN J. HAMRE, and ELIOT A. COHEN"
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