Monday, March 28, 2022

Biden’s budget has Manchin written all over it

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DRIVING THE DAY

There's a lot going on in Washington this week: The White House will release its new budget today. CHUCK SCHUMER and MITT ROMNEY have been negotiating a potential Covid funding deal, and we're told it could soon materialize. The Jan. 6 committee is set to begin contempt proceedings against DAN SCAVINO and PETER NAVARRO. And the fallout from the GINNI THOMAS texts will be a hot topic for reporters chasing elected officials on Capitol Hill.

But President JOE BIDEN's Saturday regime change ad lib — "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power"— is overshadowing all of it.

Even Biden's Sunday Mass was dominated by Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. Biden attended the 5:30 p.m. service at Georgetown's Holy Trinity Catholic Church. The gospel reading of the day was the story of the prodigal son. During the homily the priest reflected on that reading and compared Biden and Putin, America and Russia, to the estranged brothers in that New Testament story.

"Putin/Russia may be the wayward son that we need to pray for and love," one of Biden's fellow parishioners emailed us after the service. (Next week perhaps it will be about CHRIS ROCK and WILL SMITH.)

As Biden stepped outside the church, he had the following exchange:

— Reporter: "Mr. President, do you want Putin removed? Mr. President, were you calling for regime change?"

— Biden: "No."

Every Biden decision on Ukraine has been guided by keeping NATO and Russia from becoming combatants. There's obviously an enormous amount of hostility toward Putin from U.S. policymakers. When we interviewed DEREK CHOLLET, a senior State Department official, last week he had a mug on his desk that said, "Fuck U Putin." Biden has previously called Putin a "butcher" and a "war criminal."

But the Biden doctrine, as Chollet told us, was all about "maintaining the escalation dynamic."

"You don't want to widen the war," Chollet said. "That's a fundamental kind of balance point that you're trying — that we're all trying to navigate."

Biden lost his compass for a moment Saturday. 

The comment created a schism with America's closest allies on the conflict when the entire point of Biden's trip was to show unity. French President EMMANUEL MACRON, who is part of diplomatic talks to end the war, was especially perturbed.

"I wouldn't use this type of wording because I continue to hold discussions with President Putin," Macron said in a TV interview. "We want to stop the war that Russia has launched in Ukraine without escalation — that's the objective." He also pointed to Biden's "butcher" comment as problematic.

The AP sees the remark haunting Biden as he deals with domestic difficulties: It "created a troubling distraction, undermining his effectiveness as he returned home to face restive Americans who strongly disapprove of his performance on issues that matter most to them."

The AP also notes that the call for regime change was Biden's third errant remark about a major issue during his trip to Europe:

"During a news conference in Brussels on Thursday, he said the U.S. would respond 'in kind' if Putin used chemical weapons in Ukraine. The next day, national security advisor JAKE SULLIVAN said the president meant that 'we'll respond accordingly,' not that the U.S. would use chemical weapons of its own.

"And then, while speaking to members of the 82nd Airborne Division recently deployed to Poland, Biden seemed to suggest they would be going to Ukraine. Speaking about the bravery of Ukrainians, Biden said: 'Look at how they're stepping up. And you're going to see when you're there.'

"Afterward, the White House reiterated that Biden had no intention of sending troops into Ukraine, something the president has insisted since the beginning of the conflict."

WaPo's Missy Ryan reports that the Biden remark "threatens to push deeply strained U.S.-Russia relations closer to collapse, former officials and analysts said, with potentially serious implications for Washington's ability to help steer the war in Ukraine to an end and avoid a wider conflict."

The WSJ reports that some analysts believe that Biden's call for regime change "could strengthen Mr. Putin's hand at home, causing Russians to rally around him and an invasion they may not otherwise support."

The FT has a roundup of criticism of Biden, including this remark from a senior British official who cuts to the heart of why it was boneheaded: "It's good in principle to incentivise good behaviour, not encourage worse behaviour by suggesting there is nothing left to lose."

Biden's ill-advised comment came at an especially bad time. The FT's Max Seddon reports that negotiations are picking up:

"Ukraine is ready to declare neutrality, abandon its drive to join NATO and vow to not develop nuclear weapons if Russia withdraws troops and Kyiv receives security guarantees, President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY said on the eve of a round of peace talks in Turkey.

"Speaking in Russian, Zelensky told a group of Russian independent journalists on Sunday that Kyiv was prepared to meet Moscow on some of its demands on the condition that the changes were put to a referendum and third parties promised to protect Ukraine."

 

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Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook, where we never make fun of hair. Drop us a line with 2,000 words or more about the slap heard 'round the world: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

BUDGET DAY — We'll have a lot more on the new Biden budget this afternoon and Tuesday. But here are some highlights of the framing from a White House official:

— Three big things. "The President's Budget will reflect three important values: fiscal responsibility, safety and security at home and abroad, and a commitment to building a better America."

— Populist deficit reduction. "Through a new Billionaire Minimum Income Tax and other measures, budget policies will … reduce deficits by a total of over $1 trillion over the next decade."

Fund the police. "The Budget will help keep our communities safe by putting more cops on the beat for community policing, fighting gun crime, and investing in crime prevention and community violence interventions."

— And the Pentagon. "It will make one of the largest investments in our national security in U.S. history."

— And don't forget about inflation. "And it will make other critical investments to help build a better America—cutting costs for families and advancing the bipartisan Unity Agenda the President laid out in his State of the Union address."

To say this is a dramatic change compared to Biden's agenda last year is an understatement. The midterm messaging from the White House may as well have been written by Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.): an emphasis on taxing only the wealthiest Americans, a new commitment to deficit reduction, lots more money for cops and the military, and chunks of the old Build Back Better agenda repackaged as inflation-fighting policies. What a difference a year makes!

 

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BIDEN'S MONDAY:

— 11:30 a.m.: The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 2:45 p.m.: Biden will announce his fiscal year 2023 budget, with OMB Director SHALANDA YOUNG also speaking.

Deputy press secretary ANDREW BATES, Young, Council of Economic Advisers Chair CECILIA ROUSE and Sullivan will brief at 3:30 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the America COMPETES Act, with roll call votes at 5:30 p.m. The Judiciary Committee is scheduled to take up KETANJI BROWN JACKSON's and other judicial nominations at 3 p.m., though the vote will likely be pushed to next week.

THE HOUSE will meet at 2 p.m., with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. The Jan. 6 committee will mark up a report recommending criminal contempt of Congress citations for Navarro and Scavino at 7:30 p.m.

BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD:

— Tuesday: The president will welcome Singaporean PM LEE HSIEN LOONG to the White House, and later will sign the Emmett Till Antilynching Act into law, with Biden and Harris delivering remarks.

— Friday: Biden will speak about the monthly jobs report.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is pictured meeting with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. | AP Photo

Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Jerusalem, on Sunday, March 27. | Jacquelyn Martin, Pool/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

WAR IN UKRAINE

NYT: "Russia appears to be shifting its focus to securing control of eastern Ukraine after efforts to take the capital, Kyiv, and other major cities stalled in the face of stiff resistance. Ukrainian officials said that they are worried that Russia may try to split the country between regions it controls and those it does not, a division that recalled the fate of Germany and Korea after World War II."

WSJ:"Ukrainian forces said Sunday they drove Russian troops out of Trostyanets, in the northeast near the Russian border, potentially opening a road to the provincial capital of Sumy, which is encircled by the Russians."

ALL POLITICS

REDISTRICTING WATCH — Ally Mutnick and Gary Fineout report that "spats between governors and state legislators have brought map-making to a standstill in the final four states still without new congressional lines for the 2022 elections. With filing deadlines looming, 44 House seats are still outstanding in Louisiana, New Hampshire, Missouri and, most importantly, Florida, which has 28 districts all by itself. …

"Some of these redistricting delays were expected — Louisiana's term-limited Democratic governor, JOHN BEL EDWARDS, made clear from the start that he would veto a map if the GOP-controlled legislature didn't create a second district where Black voters could elect their candidate of choice. But others were more surprising: GOP governors in New Hampshire and Florida are playing hardball with their own party. A conservative filibuster in Missouri, where Republicans also control both legislative houses and the governorship, stalled the map there until this week."

 

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JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

FULL OF CONTEMPT — Biden "turned down an effort by Dan Scavino, the longtime social media manager for Trump, to resist the Jan. 6 select committee by asserting executive privilege," our Kyle Cheney writes. "The disclosure came as part of a 34-page report released Sunday evening by congressional investigators as the Jan. 6 committee prepared to begin contempt proceedings against Scavino and Peter Navarro, another ally in [former President DONALD TRUMP's] last-ditch effort to overturn the 2020 election results."

JUDICIARY SQUARE

INTO THE COSMOS CLUB — WaPo's Karina Elwood takes a look at the Cosmos Club, a private social club in Washington, D.C. where Judge KETANJI BROWN JACKSON is a member: "It's true that the club, founded in 1878, has welcomed a number of high-society members during its history, including presidents, diplomats and noted writers.

"But those familiar with the 'traditional' social scene in the District know it as the long-standing club for the scholarly and accomplished. It's a relic of old Washington, a place for members to gather and celebrate. And, like many other long-standing institutions, it also has an exclusionary past, one that Jackson's own membership, as a Black woman, underscores."

 

DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Jamaal Bowman tweeted — then deleted — a joke about the Will Smith- Chris Rock smackdown. (h/t Ben Jacobs) … Brendan Boyle stood by his tweet about "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air." … Ayanna Pressley initially defended Smith, but then also had second thoughts.

Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House's principal deputy press secretary, has Covid-19. She traveled with Biden to Europe. "I last saw the President during a socially distanced meeting yesterday," she said in a statement Sunday night, "and the President is not considered a close contact as defined by CDC guidance."

Madison Cawthorn described some of his "wild" experiences in Washington: being invited to orgies by politicians in their 60s and 70s, and watching elected officials doing cocaine.

SPOTTED: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) at the Palm on Sunday night — he was there to watch basketball.

TRANSITIONS — Jessica Hernandez is now energy policy director at Environmental Working Group. She previously was legislative assistant for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). … Rachel Stephens is now director of media relations for the Consumer Brands Association. She most recently was press secretary for the House Transportation GOP, and is a John Ratcliffe alum.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Kylie Atwood, a national security correspondent for CNN, and Steve Harrington, an entrepreneur, got married Saturday. Pool report: "They exchanged vows in a 118-year-old church in Jackson Hole, Wyo., followed by dinner, dancing and a flash mob against the backdrop of the slushy Tetons. Like the Lang Leav poem read by Kylie's grandmother Joan at the ceremony, they ended the night in cowboy boots, light-up hats and foam Moose caps under a sprinkling of 'Stardust.' Father of the groom Stephen Harrington and mother of the bride Kristen Atwood were voted MVPs." PicAnother pic SPOTTED: Becky Van Dercook, Vaughn Hillyard, Jessica Dean, Alan He, Sam and Danielle Feist, Betsy Klein and Jeff Solnet, Meridith McGraw, Brian Roberts, Jacqueline Alemany, Rachel Levitan, DJ Judd, Jay and Sara Shaylor, Ali Spiesman, Nick Barquin, Federico and Elena Quadrani, Katherine Schneider, Liza Bray, Chloe Arensberg and Alec Phillips, Christian Hertenstein, and Chris Licht and Jenny Blanco.

— Trevor Blake, an attorney for the Office of House Employment Counsel and a DOJ alum, and Dr. Paul Doherty got married Friday. Because D.C. court weddings are still being done by videoconference, the wedding was at their townhouse on Capitol Hill. Niki Christoff was the witness. Pic

BIRTHWEEK (was Sunday): Brad Rateike

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), David McKinley (R-W.Va.) and Kai Kahele (D-Hawaii) … CBS' Ed O'Keefe and Bob Kovach … Fox News' Todd PiroTevi Troy Lauren Ehrsam GoreyIan Blue ... Cheryl Oldham ... Ricky Moxley ... Josh Cook ... Tori BiceDennis Sills ... Aaron Davis of the International Code Council … Hank Paulson ... Kirk Marshall ... Ben Porritt ... Tim PhelpsTed Verrill of Rep. Julia Letlow's (R-La.) office … Peter Ambler ... POLITICO's Rex Willis, Danielle Banks and Abbey SatteleLee Hancock ... Jake AdelsteinKeith Nahigian Bill Gertz Alexander Grieve ... James Singer ... Janine Benner … former Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-Alaska) ... Florida A.G. Ashley Moody … Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte

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