Monday, March 28, 2022

Inside West Virginia’s nasty GOP primary

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Mar 28, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Stephanie Murray

TopLine

Rep. David McKinley is pictured.

Rep. David McKinley is pictured. | AP Photo

TAKE ME HOME, COUNTRY ROADS — Republican Reps. Alex Mooney and David McKinley are waging a brutal primary battle in West Virginia, after redistricting slashed the number of House seats in their home state.

The McKinley-Mooney battle is one of five member-on-member primary match-ups this cycle caused by the once-in-a-decade redrawing of congressional maps. West Virginia lost a House seat, pitting the incumbent Republicans against one another in the May 10 primary.

The House colleagues, now opponents, wasted no time getting nasty on the airwaves. Mooney has attacked McKinley as a "RINO" and a liar in TV ads, while McKinley went on the air calling Mooney a " political prostitute" and a carpetbagger. Both have tied their opponent to President Joe Biden, and highlighted their own ties to former President Donald Trump. Mooney has so far spent $686,000 on TV ads, while McKinley has spent $598,000.

The primary will likely decide who represents the deep-red WV-02 district. And it will also provide a test of Trump's endorsement power. Trump backed Mooney in November, and the Club for Growth endorsed him the next day, bashing McKinley's vote on Biden's infrastructure package. Meanwhile, McKinley has the endorsement of GOP Gov. Jim Justice.

There are six weeks until primary day in West Virginia. Plenty of GOP primary voters are still up for grabs, according to a recent poll. McKinley led Mooney by 5 percentage points in a North Star Opinion research poll conducted for the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce, although 25 percent of voters were undecided. McKinley had 38 percent and Mooney had 33 percent.

One big question looming over the primary is whether Trump will get more involved to boost his candidate before voters head to the polls. Trump has kept close watch over his endorsed candidates in other states, recently dropping Senate hopeful Mo Brooks in Alabama.

"You'd have to ask the president that," Mooney campaign general consultant Mark Harris told Score, asked about the prospect of a Trump visit. "We'd love to have him."

TV and endorsements aside, the candidates are running in new territory — figuratively and literally. Republican primaries are still relatively new in West Virginia, which has shifted from a blue state to a red state over the last two decades.

"We haven't had a lot of competitive Republican campaigns at this level," West Virginia GOP political consultant Greg Thomas told Score. "And Republican intensity is really high. It's everywhere, and it's among all kinds of Republicans."

Plus, Mooney and McKinley are each running on new turf in the new WV-02, which encompasses the northern half of the state.

"McKinley is going to do extremely well in the Northern Panhandle and the River Valley, all the way down to Parkersburg, and Mooney is going to do very well out in the Eastern Panhandle, regardless of how much money is spent in those areas for and against their opponents," said Thomas, who worked for McKinley in 2010 but is not working for either campaign this cycle. "Typically the Eastern Panhandle doesn't come out as much in a primary, but to be quite honest, they've never had a reason to."

Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick.

Days until the CA-22 special election primary: 8

Days until the Indiana and Ohio primaries: 36

Days until the Texas runoff: 57

Days until the general election: 225

Days until the 2024 election: 953

 

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

DROPPING OUT — "Fortenberry resigns from Congress after felony convictions," by Olivia Beavers, POLITICO: "Rep. Jeff Fortenberry announced Saturday he is resigning from Congress after being convicted of three felonies related to a federal probe of illegal campaign contributions. His decision, which he announced after he returned to his home state, caps a remarkable political fall and came after top House leaders prodded him to end his nine-term career in the lower chamber following the guilty findings Thursday night by a jury in Los Angeles."

THE MAP LINES — "Maryland court strikes down congressional map as illegal Democratic gerrymander," by Zach Montellaro, POLITICO: "A state court in Maryland has struck down the Democratic-drawn congressional map as an illegal partisan gerrymander, ordering the state legislature to redraw the lines for the 2022 election. The new districts — which were drawn by the Democratic-dominated legislature and passed over the veto of Republican Gov. Larry Hogan — could result in an 8-0 sweep for Democrats in the state in blue-leaning years."

— "Ohio Redistricting Commission stares down another deadline to redraw state legislative maps," by Andrew Tobias, Cleveland Plain Dealer: "The Ohio Redistricting Commission is coming down to the wire as it faces a Monday court-ordered deadline to draw new state legislative maps in time for the May 3 election. On Sunday, the commission, a panel of state elected officials, considered three sets of rough draft maps provided by two mapmaking consultants the commission hired last week."

FIRST IN SCORE: ENDORSEMENT ALERT — Our Revolution will formally endorse a trio of Democrats during an organizing call tonight. The progressive group is backing Erica Smith in NC-03, Nida Allam in NC-04 and Rep. Kurt Schrader primary challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner in OR-05.

— FIRST IN SCORE: "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Scott Baugh in CA-47," via the Club for Growth: "Club for Growth PAC endorsed former California Assemblyman and attorney Scott Baugh in California's 47th Congressional District. 'Scott Baugh is a true constitutional conservative who will be a champion for cutting taxes, advancing free markets, and supporting school choice,' said Club for Growth PAC President David McIntosh."

JUST PEACHY — "In Georgia, Trump Tries to Revive a Sputtering Campaign," by Maya King, The New York Times: "Two months out from the Republican primary election, Mr. Perdue's campaign has been more underwhelming than epic. In an effort to boost Mr. Perdue and put his own stamp on the race, Mr. Trump came to Georgia on Saturday for a rally for Mr. Perdue and the slate of candidates the former president has endorsed. Thousands of Trump supporters turned out in the small city of Commerce, 70 miles northeast of Atlanta and about 20 miles outside of Mr. Kemp's hometown, Athens."

THE OCEAN STATE — "RI congressional candidate Michael Neary arrested in Ohio," by Ted Nesi, Eli Sherman, Kim Kalunian and Steph Machado, WPRI: "One of the Democrats running to succeed Rep. Jim Langevin (D-R.I.) was arrested in Ohio earlier this week on stalking and drug charges, Target 12 has learned. Michael Neary — a political unknown in Rhode Island who previously worked for Ohio Gov. John Kasich — was arrested in the township of Elizabeth, Ohio, at about 2:30 a.m. on Wednesday."

MIDTERM MESSAGING — "House GOP vows 'grand plan,' not obstruction, as it eyes majority," by Sarah Ferris and Olivia Beavers, POLITICO: "House GOP leaders are readying an agenda that their members can all get behind if, or perhaps when, they retake the majority this fall. Translating that unity into floor votes will be the real challenge. But first come the vows that they'll be prepared for January, when it's increasingly likely that the GOP will hold at least one chamber of Congress and Republicans insist they won't be caught legislatively flat-footed."

— "The 2022 campaign story was set. Then Russia invaded Ukraine." by Gregory Krieg and Eric Bradner, CNN: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine opened up a new front in the 2022 US midterm cycle, with America's role in the conflict taking a place alongside the culture war clashes, economic worries and fights over pandemic policy that had driven the early stages of the election."

PARTY PROBLEMS — "Democrats' fight over bail reform might be a fight for the party's direction," by Anna Gronewold and Erin Durkin, POLITICO New York: "Three years after New York bail reform changes were hailed as a national victory to address unfair detainment, the state law and its effects are now a political grenade being lobbed from both the right and left amid surging crime. The debate has become a growing symbol of rifts among progressive and moderate Democrats that is playing out in statehouses across the U.S."

THE ATTORNEYS GENERAL — "Leonard calls on DePerno to disclose what happened with 'election fraud' fundraising," by Craig Mauger, The Detroit News: "Former Michigan House Speaker Tom Leonard has called on lawyer Matt DePerno to detail what happened with about $400,000 he raised through an 'Election Fraud Defense Fund' as he pursued claims of wrongdoing in the 2020 presidential vote. Leonard's request, which DePerno indicated he would not fulfill, came during a raucous Thursday night debate in Waterford Township, featuring the three Republican candidates for attorney general."

DAY IN COURT — "Former gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler arrested on charges of possessing child porn," by Matt Byrne, Portland Press Herald: "Two-time gubernatorial candidate Eliot R. Cutler was arrested Friday for possession of child exploitation material following a two-month investigation, authorities said. Cutler, 75, faces four counts of possession of sexually explicit material of a minor under 12, said Hancock County District Attorney Matt J. Foster."

AS SEEN ON TV

— Alabama GOP Gov. Kay Ivey is airing a new gubernatorial campaign ad that features two men at a shooting range who highlight her policy positions. "Kay kicks so much liberal butt, I bet her leg's tired," one of the men says. Ivey fires at a target and turns to the camera. "No step too high for a high-stepper," Ivey says.

POLL POSITION

— "Siena poll: Hochul leads Cuomo by 8 points in hypothetical primary matchup," by Bill Mahoney, POLITICO New York: "Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo trails successor Kathy Hochul by only 8 percentage points in a hypothetical Democratic primary matchup, a poll released by the Siena College Research Institute on Monday found. Hochul would receive 38 percent of the vote. That compares to 30 percent for Cuomo; 10 percent for Rep. Tom Suozzi, and 7 percent for New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams."

— "Biden's job approval falls to lowest level of his presidency amid war and inflation fears," by Mark Murray, NBC News: "Amid Europe's largest land war since World War II, 7 in 10 Americans expressed low confidence in President Joe Biden's ability to deal with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a new NBC News poll, and 8 in 10 voiced worry that the war will increase gas prices and possibly involve nuclear weapons."

— "AP-NORC poll: Low marks for Biden on economy as prices rise," by Josh Boak and Emily Swanson, The Associated Press: "A majority of Americans say they don't blame President Joe Biden for high gasoline prices, but they're giving his economic leadership low marks amid fears of inflation and deep pessimism about economic conditions. About 7 in 10 Americans say the nation's economy is in bad shape, and close to two-thirds disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research."

— A new KAC consulting poll found Nebraska Republican Charles Herbster's gubernatorial campaign has lost support over the last several months, the Lincoln Journal Star's Don Walton reported. Herbster had 53 percent of support in December, compared to 27 percent in March. The Trump-endorsed Herbster faces Jim Pillen and Brett Lindstrom in the GOP primary. KAC Consulting surveyed likely GOP primary voters from March 8-10, and found Pillen with 18 percent of support and Lindstrom with 17 percent.

 

DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Presidential Big Board

HINDSIGHT IS 2020 — "Ginni Thomas pressed for GOP lawmakers to protest 2020 election results," by Scott Wong, NBC News: "Shortly after the 2020 election, Virginia 'Ginni' Thomas, the conservative activist and wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, sent an email to an aide to a prominent House conservative saying she would have nothing to do with his group until his members go 'out in the streets,' a congressional source familiar with the exchange told NBC News."

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "I have a lot of zeal, I have a lot of charisma, I've got a lot of aggression. I never back down … But I realize at 26 years old, I don't have a lot of wisdom at this age in my life." — Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), via Ron Filipkowski.

 

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