Monday, March 28, 2022

⚖️ Biden's balancing act

Plus: Crypto climate inquiry | Monday, March 28, 2022
 
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By Ben Geman and Andrew Freedman ·Mar 28, 2022

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1 big thing: Unpacking Biden's European energy plan
Illustration of a series of natural gas flames getting smaller in size as the EU flag in the background becomes dark without the light

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

 

The dust is settling on the new U.S.-European Commission energy plan, so let's explore some big themes that have emerged since President Biden unveiled it, Ben writes.

Catch up fast: U.S. and European officials on Friday announced new joint efforts to help cut the continent's reliance on Russian fossil fuels.

  • One big effort is to boost the already expanding U.S. LNG exports to Europe, with a goal of an additional 50 billion cubic meters annually through at least 2030.
  • It also vows cooperation to help cut EU gas demand via the faster deployment of heat pumps, smart thermostats, faster renewables additions and more.

Zoom in: Here's six takeaways on the rollout and its aftermath.

1. American LNG can help but it's far from a silver bullet. Russian gas exports to Europe last year were roughly 155 bcm.

2. It puts a bright spotlight on infrastructure. Reaching the target will require more export and import facilities. Part of the plan calls for faster EU project reviews.

3. The U.S. export infrastructure ramifications depend on who you ask. The White House, in a statement, tells Axios the 50 bcm target "could be met with already permitted expansions to existing facilities and completing of already permitted and under construction facilities."

  • But Europe is only one destination, and Asia has historically been the largest cumulative destination for U.S. LNG, even as more shipments head to Europe now.
  • "The reality is additional infrastructure currently pending before FERC and DOE will also need to be authorized in order to meet the requirements and also meet existing contractional obligations for the facilities already in operation," Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas, an industry group, tells me via email.
  • The NYT has a good look at all this.

4. Climate activists are worried about the White House's posture. "Allowing for the expansion of new and expanded gas export facilities would lock in decades of reliance on risky, volatile fossil fuels and spell disaster for our climate and already overburdened Gulf Coast communities," Kelly Sheehan, the Sierra Club's director of energy campaigns, said in a statement.

5. Another thing to watch: how it affects battles over U.S. pipelines. Dustin Meyer, the VP of natural gas markets for the American Petroleum Institute, stressed that pipeline capacity is needed to move more onshore gas to export terminals.

"That's the sort of area where you need clear and consistent permitting. In many ways, it's just as important as what the clear consistent permitting is for the export facilities themselves," he said in an interview.

6. The natural gas industry and its investors see bullish signs. The Wall Street Journal reports that the share prices of big U.S. natural gas producers and exporters jumped on Friday in the wake of the news.

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Bonus: How Biden is selling the plan

The weekend showed how the White House is trying to strike a balance between aiding Europe's fossil fuel needs while arguing that zero-carbon sources are ultimately the best answer, Ben writes.

  • "Over the long term, as a matter of economic security and national security and for the survivability of the planet, we all need to move as quickly as possible to clean, renewable energy," Biden said during his speech in Warsaw, Poland, on Saturday.
  • He said that's how to ensure that "any nation being subject to the whims of a tyrant for its energy needs are over."
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2. White House officials open crypto climate inquiry
Illustration of a pair of binoculars viewing falling 8-bit coins

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

 

The White House science office is seeking input about climate harm from expanding use of cryptocurrencies — and ways to tackle the problem, Ben writes.

Why it matters: Digital "mining" to verify and record transactions often involves the use of very powerful, energy-intensive computing equipment.

That's creating concerns about carbon emissions, especially when mining occurs in regions with fossil-heavy power grids.

Driving the news: The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) on Friday issued a formal "request for information" that solicits feedback by May 9.

OSTP wants info on "protocols, hardware, resources, economics, and other factors that shape the energy use and climate impacts of all types of digital assets."

Threat level: "Some researchers estimate that cryptocurrencies use more electricity each year than many individual countries in the world, including some industrialized nations," it states.

Yes, but: OSTP is also interested in ways crypto can help battle global warming, such as how digital assets can provide new opportunities in natural asset and carbon accounting, and greater trust in carbon measurement.

The big picture: It stems from President Biden's wider order this month on developing U.S. crypto policy and better understanding the risks and rewards of digital currencies.

The order requires an OSTP report specifically on the climate and energy dimensions.

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3. Catch up fast: Exxon, National Grid, Tesla

Crypto: "Exxon Mobil Corp. is running a pilot program using excess natural gas that would otherwise be burned off from North Dakota oil wells to power cryptocurrency-mining operations and is considering doing the same at other sites around the globe." (Bloomberg)

Deals: "Britain's National Grid said on Sunday it would sell a 60% stake in its British gas transmission and metering business to Australia's Macquarie Asset Management and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation as it shifts towards electricity." (Reuters)

Electric cars: "Tesla Inc. is suspending production at its car plant in Shanghai for four days, people familiar with the matter said, as the city started putting its 25 million citizens in a staggered two-stage Covid-19 lockdown." (Wall Street Journal)

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4. Regulations aren't chilling oil output — Barclays
Data: BLM, DOI, EIA, Barclays Research; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

A Barclays analysis of oil output on federal lands and waters finds that "regulatory changes to date are not slowing U.S. production growth," Ben writes.

Why it matters: These areas make up roughly a fourth of total U.S. output and are directly affected by federal permitting and leasing decisions.

  • The analysis arrives amid questions about why domestic production growth isn't growing more quickly, given high prices and the potential loss of lots of Russian barrels.
  • Reuters has more on the Barclays report.

Catch up fast: A Dallas Fed survey of producers in its region, where most wells are on private lands, found that investor pressure to maintain discipline was the biggest check on growth.

Supply chain and labor constraints are a problem too.

Yes, but: Industry officials say the Biden administration's leasing policies and overall posture about the sector's long-term domestic future also deter investment.

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5. Quote of the day
"The future of Europe depends on your efforts. I urge you to increase energy production to make Russia understand that no state should use energy as a weapon and to blackmail the world."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

Zelensky urged energy-rich states to expand oil-and-gas supplies to Europe in video remarks to the Doha Forum in Qatar on Saturday.

Go deeper.

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