| | | | | | | | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team ·Mar 28, 2022 | | Welcome back to Sneak. 🚨Breaking: "House progressives who often get out front of the Democratic Party are floating the prospect of an eventual effort to impeach Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas," Axios' Andrew Solender wrote tonight. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,111 words ... 4 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Biden ditches FDR |  | | | President Biden listens as OMB Director Shalanda Young speaks about his FY23 federal budget. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | | | | When President Biden released his first budget, he drew comparisons to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. His second appears designed to keep him from becoming Herbert Hoover. Why it matters: The budget blueprint Biden released today is an attempt to address the deep economic uncertainty caused by inflation, and avoid an electoral wipeout in the midterm elections. Instead of transformational social spending, there's a smaller placeholder — for projects to be named later, writes Axios' Hans Nichols. - By focusing on deficit spending as a cause of inflation, administration officials are starting to parrot an argument Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) made in rejecting Biden's Build Back Better agenda: new programs that aren't fully offset can drive up prices.
- The president also wants to assure Americans he'll increase defense spending in the face of new threats from Russia, and fund the police to keep Americans safe at home.
- A year ago, historians Biden hosted at the White House spoke of an election mandate they saw propelling a new New Deal. "I'm no FDR, but … " Axios co-founder Mike Allen quoted him as telling Doris Kearns Goodwin.
What they are saying: In previewing the FY23 budget, officials took credit for the $1.3 trillion deficit drop in 2022. They also promised to reduce deficit spending by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. - "A lower deficit will help ease long-term inflationary pressures and make our fiscal trajectory more sustainable," Council of Economic Advisers chair Cecilia Rouse told reporters this morning.
- "Last year, they were going to pay for their investments over 15 years, and only start to reduce the deficit in the ninth year," said Joel Friedman, a senior vice president for federal fiscal policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
- "And now, they are reducing the deficit in every year."
Keep reading. |     | | | | | | 2. Judge's "felony" statement changes little for Trump |  | | | Former President Trump gestures after addressing a rally in Commerce, Ga., on Saturday. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images | | | | A federal judge's statement that Donald Trump "more likely than not" committed felony obstruction with his attempt to overturn the 2020 election is significant — but not the same as saying the former president should be convicted of a felony. Why it matters: Despite the fervent hopes of Trump's critics, the statement by U.S. District Judge David Carter is unlikely to materially increase the chances of a Trump indictment, informed observers told Andrew and Axios' Jonathan Swan. - Chuck Rosenberg, who served in multiple senior Justice Department roles — including as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia — said Carter's ruling "would have little bearing on an independent prosecutorial assessment and judgment."
- Preet Bharara, the former United States attorney for the Southern District of New York, said much the same.
The big picture: The DOJ has given no signs, so far, that Attorney General Merrick Garland is contemplating the unprecedented act of charging a former president. - But the eye-catching ruling by Carter, a Clinton appointee, has raised the question anew.
- "Based on the evidence, the Court finds it more likely than not that President Trump corruptly attempted to obstruct the Joint Session of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021," Carter wrote.
What they're saying: "It [Judge Carter's ruling] has no actual weight with DOJ," Bharara told Axios. "But it's not a small thing that a judge has found evidence that Trump himself has committed a crime." - Bharara noted it's not proof beyond a reasonable doubt — but enough to invoke the "crime-fraud exception."
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | 3. Charted: Senate outside spending |  Data: OpenSecrets; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios Republican Senate campaigns in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Alabama are among those attracting the most spending from special-interest groups and political actions committees this cycle, according to financial data compiled by OpenSecrets and reviewed by Axios' Alexi McCammond. Why it matters: Super PACs, nonprofits and party committees can pump unlimited sums into key states and districts to boost a candidate or wound an opponent. - While outside money has influenced politics and campaigns for decades, this year's midterms could feature the most spending yet.
- The New York Times has written: "The 2022 midterm elections were awash in political money even before the year began."
Between the lines: The numbers reflect the total amount of money, so far, special-interest groups have spent both in support of or against these 10 candidates whose campaigns have received the most outside attention. - For example, while most of the $7.8 million spent on Republican J.D. Vance in Ohio has been in support of his campaign, over $1.5 million has been spent against it.
- Outside groups have spent more than $8 million attacking Mehmet Oz in his bid to be Pennsylvania's newest U.S. senator. Pat McCrory, another Republican running in North Carolina, is the only other candidate in the group that's received all negative spending, OpenSecrets found.
- These groups don't give directly to the candidates; instead, they spend their money on communications, ads and other independent expenditures that indirectly help or hurt a candidate.
Keep reading. ✅ ICYMI: Charted: House outside spending | | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Break through the clutter | | |  | | | | Brands have stories to tell, but they often struggle to grab leaders' attention. Okay, but: Axios' Smart Brevity Studio cracked the code for high-performing branded content that is newsy, relevant and audience-first. Request more info. | | | | | | 4. Worthy of your time |  | | | Deputy White House press secretary Andrew Bates delivered the daily briefing today after both press secretary Jen Psaki and principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre came down with COVID-19. Bates was joined by Cecilia Rouse (left), chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, and OMB Director Shalanda Young. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images | | | | 🎞️ At least two members of the House reacted to Will Smith slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars before deleting their tweets. - Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) wrote in a now-deleted tweet, "Thank you #WillSmith Shout out to all the husbands who defend their wives living with alopecia in the face of daily ignorance & insults." She later said she doesn't endorse violence in any form.
- Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) tweeted, "Teachable Moment: Don't joke about a Black Woman's hair," Axios' Sarah Mucha reports in tonight's Sneak roundup.
📱 Republican lawmakers like Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ky.) and Brian Mast (R-Fla.) capitalized on the opportunity to turn the moment into memes criticizing President Biden's policies. 🌿 The House is expected to pass legislation this week legalizing marijuana at the federal level. While Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has promised to make it a priority, the measure is expected to hit a wall in the Senate. 🇺🇦 Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) are introducing a bill to repurpose funds from seized Russian assets for a relief fund benefitting Ukrainian refugees and Ukraine's reconstruction, Axios' Sophia Cai has learned. 💵 Common Ground Virginia — the entity formed by Terry McAuliffe's 2021 gubernatorial campaign committee — has raised more than $1 million for 14 Democrats in competitive 2022 races, according to a memo sent to supporters today, Axios' Lachlan Markay reported. | | | | | | | | 5. Pics du jour |  | | | Photos: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | | | | Tourists were allowed back into the Capitol for the first time since the 2020 coronavirus shutdown. - To start, tours are by appointment and being led by members and congressional staff.
- The building and Capitol Visitors Center are set to reopen to the general public at the end of May.
- Despite the loosening rules, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the extension of proxy voting — a measure designed to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 — until May 14, Andrew also reports.
| | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Break through the clutter | | | | | | | | Brands have stories to tell, but they often struggle to grab leaders' attention. Okay, but: Axios' Smart Brevity Studio cracked the code for high-performing branded content that is newsy, relevant and audience-first. Request more info. | | | | 📬 Thanks for reading tonight! Please tell your family, friends and colleagues they can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. |  | It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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