🤫 Dems' redistricting wins

Plus: Ukraine messaging | Thursday, February 03, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Business Roundtable   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Feb 03, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. U.S. special forces executed a dangerous mission. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,049 words ... 4 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: Democrats snag redistricting wins Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Democrats have drawn themselves aggressive maps in Illinois and New York as part of their efforts to overcome perceived Republican redistricting strengths this midterm year. They've also been in position to veto some GOP maps and win court challenges to Republican districts. Why it matters: The wins are adding up, with Democrats now set to potentially gain two to three seats through redistricting, Axios' Stef Kight and Andrew Solender write. That would be the first time they've been projected to gain over Republicans, according to a new analysis by Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman. With Democrats holding such slim margins in Congress, and Republicans gunning to flip dozens of House seats, every map matters for congressional power not just next year but the next decade. What we're watching: Proposed maps released for New York last Sunday would knock out half of the state's House Republicans, while giving Democrats as many as three more seats. Democratic governors are also flexing their veto muscles in key states, with the potential to ward off Republican gerrymandering efforts in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Kansas. Key court decisions have also bolstered the party. Democrats had an important victory in Alabama last week when a federal court blocked new congressional maps and told lawmakers to draw a second Black majority district "or something quite close to it." Keep reading.     2. U.S. preempts Russian disinformation State Department spokesman Ned Price spoke Monday with Matt Lee of the Associated Press. Photo: Mandel Ngan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images   The U.S. government is deploying a novel strategy to preempt Russian disinformation, publicly accusing the country of specific plots to fabricate a pretext for invading Ukraine. Why it matters: The statements, made twice during the past three weeks, reflect lessons learned from the Obama administration's handling of Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea. That involved many of the same players now serving in senior roles under President Biden, Axios' Zachary Basu notes. Driving the news: The latest allegations, based on declassified intelligence, involve purported Russian plans to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces and disseminate a graphic "propaganda video" showing Russian casualties and fake mourners. "We are publicizing it in the hopes that it dissuades Russia from its intended course of action," a senior administration official told Axios. Last month, the U.S. accused Russia of prepositioning a group of operatives to conduct a "false-flag" operation in eastern Ukraine. The British government also claimed to have exposed a Kremlin plot to install a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine — allegations reportedly based on intelligence collected and declassified by the U.S. The big picture: Burned in 2014 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, top Biden administration officials are determined not to get caught on their back foot in the information war — or on deterrence. "We are prepared to implement sanctions with massive consequences that were not considered in 2014," a senior Biden official said in a recent briefing. Keep reading.     3. Swing voters: Keep military out of Ukraine U.S. troops deploy for Europe today from Pope Army Airfield at Fort Bragg, N.C. Photo: Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images   Some Trump-to-Biden swing voters are reflexively opposed to U.S. military involvement in Ukraine, even if Russia invades, Axios' Sarah Mucha reports. Why it matters: This key takeaway from Axios' latest Engagious/Schlesinger focus groups comes as Biden deploys the first major group of U.S. troops to shore up NATO defenses in Eastern Europe in response to Russia's buildup on the border. Voters' views on U.S. obligations in the region could impact Biden's popularity and indirectly shape the outcome of this year's midterms. While the president thus far has ruled out sending troops directly into Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, the Pentagon says 2,000 U.S. troops will be deployed to Germany and Poland. Another 1,o00 based in Germany are being sent to Romania. The move comes months after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. While Americans supported a withdrawal, they were critical of the chaos and casualties around the exit — and Biden's job approval numbers have been declining since. Keep reading.     A message from Business Roundtable Good tax policy supports long-term economic growth     A globally competitive tax code for U.S. businesses means increased investment in operations and research and development, higher wages and more jobs here at home—leading to stronger economic growth that benefits all Americans. Learn more.     4. Charted: Blacks in Congress Data: U.S. House of Representatives; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios Twenty-eight states currently have at least one Black member of Congress representing them, with New York having more than any other state, according to data from the House Office of the Historian reviewed by Axios' Stef Kight. Why it matters: The data provides insight into how long it has taken for Black Americans to be fairly represented in the halls of Congress, news coming as the nation marks Black History Month. Sen. Hiram Revels of Mississippi and Rep. Joseph H. Rainey of South Carolina were the first Black Americans to serve in Congress, starting in 1870. Both were Republicans. Since then, 175 Black Americans have served as representatives, delegates or senators, according to the House Office of the Historian. Keep reading.     5. Worthy of your time Attorney General Merrick Garland (seated, left) and President Biden (seated, right) met with Mayor Eric Adams in New York City to discuss crime, policing and the flow of illegal guns. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images   🔫 The president offered his take on gun control today, stating during his visit to New York City: "When the [Second] Amendment was passed, it didn't say anybody could own a gun, and any kind of gun and any kind of weapon. You couldn't buy a cannon." Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler noted he's given that claim "four Pinnochios," Andrew reports in tonight's Sneak roundup. 👥 Congressional staffers would have House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's "full support" if they unionized following a testy social media movement, Pelosi spokesperson Drew Hammill said. The statement came after Pelosi dodged a question during a press conference about staff unionization, telling reporters, "Well, we just unionized at the DCCC and I supported that." 🚨 Capitol Police closed off the Supreme Court after a Michigan man illegally parked outside the building. He was arrested for a similar incident in October. He "agreed to leave the area" this time and was not arrested, the Capitol Police said. 🤭 Former Trump Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark pleaded the Fifth Amendment over 100 times during his Jan. 6 select committee deposition, according to CNN. Others taking the Fifth have included far-right media personality Alex Jones and Trump associate Roger Stone, who reportedly pleaded the Fifth in response to every question. 📝 A proposed resolution at the Republican National Committee winter meeting to expel Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) from the House GOP conference has been reduced to a proposed censure. "A lot of folks had asked for it to be watered down," New Jersey RNC committeeman Bill Palatucci told CNN reporter Gabby Orr.     6. Pic du jour Photo: Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images   Lorna Rainey speaks about her great-grandfather during the unveiling of the Joseph H. Rainey Room in the Capitol. Rainey, as noted above, was the first elected Black member of the House of Representatives. He served from 1870 to 1879.     A message from Business Roundtable Billions of dollars in investments. Tens of thousands of American jobs     Globally engaged U.S. businesses support American workers and communities. Business Roundtable CEOs are committed to inclusive innovation and a thriving U.S. economy—one that positions American workers and businesses to compete and win globally.   🥂 Thanks for reading this week. We'll be back Sunday evening. A reminder your family, friends and colleagues can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. Like this email style and format? Bring the strength of Smart Brevity® to your team — more effective communications, powered by Axios HQ.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: