| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Paul McLeary and Quint Forgey | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint President JOE BIDEN may soon deploy more than the already announced 8,500 troops to Europe in advance of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today. "I'm not going to rule out the possibility that there will be more such direction given to additional units at home or even abroad in terms of their readiness posture," he said in an off-camera briefing. Those remarks followed a CNN appearance by deputy national security adviser JON FINER in which he stated American service members could be headed to allied territory sooner rather than later. "I don't think we're taking any options off the table," he said. The only thing that is off the table, per Biden himself , is that there won't be U.S. forces inside of Ukraine. The administration has not made a decision to actually deploy any new troops to Europe, but it has put the 8,500 on alert to be ready to move within five days. The White House has long said it would bolster NATO's eastern flank should Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN launch a renewed incursion. But the signaling and assumption was that U.S. service members would go there after an invasion, not before one. It appears the calculus has changed. "The majority" of the original 8,500 troops would operate within the 40,000-strong NATO Response Force, Kirby said, which is a multinational force made up of land, air, maritime and special operations forces components. Kirby added that the U.S. contingent will include "logistics, sustainment, medical, aviation [and] certainly Brigade Combat Teams, so there's a ground element. These are combat credible forces. That's the idea. That's what the NATO Response Force is all about." What's still unclear is exactly where the troops will come from. Kirby said the original 8,500 are all U.S.-based, while White House press secretary JEN PSAKI said today that they'll come from both the United States and Europe. This could be messaging confusion, as Kirby added that troops already based in Europe "could also be used to bolster the readiness and to help reassure our NATO allies and the eastern flank." Earlier this week, a senior Baltic official said the number of troops Biden might send matters less than the capabilities they bring, and another official from the region said today that talks are ongoing with the United States about new troop deployments — although no decisions have been made yet. Among the president's broad options, per those officials: Support or enhance NATO's existing Baltic air-policing mission; reinforce the ongoing NATO enhanced forward presence battle group with air-defense assets or multiple-launch rocket systems; and/or send equipment to collect intelligence, conduct electronic warfare or deploy ISR. The issue of putting more American boots on the ground has been a major part of the discussions between the U.S. and Europe. A diplomat from an Eastern European NATO ally told us: "Our messaging to the U.S. has been that we do not support this notion of conditionality, that if the Russians enter Ukraine with military troops, then we will strengthen NATO's eastern flank. To the contrary, we believe that there should be a strong NATO eastern flank because that is something that actually deters" Russia. Meanwhile, the U.S. embassy in Ukraine announced that the third shipment of the Biden-authorized $200 million in lethal assistance arrived in Kyiv, weighing in at 79 tons and including around 300 Javelins.
| | | | JOIN FRIDAY TO HEAR FROM GOVERNORS ACROSS AMERICA : As we head into the third year of the pandemic, state governors are taking varying approaches to public health measures including vaccine and mask mandates. "The Fifty: America's Governors" is a series of live conversations featuring various governors on the unique challenges they face as they take the lead and command the national spotlight in historic ways. Learn what is working and what is not from the governors on the front lines, REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– 12 HOUSE DEMS CALL FOR END OF U.S.-SAUDI CONTRACT: In a terse letter to Biden , exclusively obtained by NatSec Daily, 12 House Democrats urged Biden to end America's maintenance contract with Saudi Arabia to keep Riyadh's air force in the sky. Citing the recent escalation of the Saudi-led coalition's bombing of Yemen — which saw more than 100 people killed — the lawmakers wrote "[the] aircraft conducting these strikes, which cause untold suffering, undermine U.S. interests, and defy years of American entreaties, are sustained and kept flying under a contract approved by the United States government," they wrote. "Please suspend this contract." The 12 signees are Reps. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), GERRY CONNOLLY (D-Va.), DAVID CICILLINE (D-R.I.), SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), RO KHANNA (D-Calif.), ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.), COLIN ALLRED (D-Texas), DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.), SUSAN WILD (D-Pa.), JIM McGOVERN (D-Mass.), KATIE PORTER (D-Calif) and TED LIEU (D-Calif.). Asked about the letter, a senior administration official simply responded in an email "[w]e are aware of the letter and will provide a response to the members of Congress." FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– CAP REPORT ON WHAT DO ABOUT A RUSSIAN INVASION:The Center for American Progress, a think tank close to the Biden administration, just published a report titled "How the United States Should Respond if Russia Invades Ukraine." Written by MAX BERGMANN, a senior fellow at the left-leaning think tank and former State Department official, the report lays out eight separate steps that could make Russia feel the pain and deter other nations from trying similar invasions. They are: — "Target and uproot oligarch wealth and influence" — "Put in place strict export controls that stop U.S.-based technology from going to Russia" — "Wage a continuous economic sanctions campaign against Russia" — "Press Europe to engage in wartime-like mobilization to decarbonize and reduce its dependence on Russian gas" — "Prepare to support Ukrainian resistance in a protracted conflict" — "Bolster NATO and European security" — "Engage in a diplomatic offensive to isolate and compete with Russia internationally" — "Maintain diplomatic dialogue and seek to reestablish strategy stability" — "Prepare for Russia's response" If you read all that and thought to yourself, "Wow, that's not only a lot, but also it will take a lot of time and effort to achieve that," then you've understood Bergmann's main point. "The United States and its allies will need to play the long game. The strength of U.S. efforts in 2023 and 2024, and into the latter part of the decade, will matter just as much as the U.S. response in 2022," he wrote. "This is a report that CAP plans to circulate with members of the administration and Congress," said SAM HANANEL , a CAP spokesperson. The report, we're told separately, does reflect the outcomes of conversations that have taken place between CAP, administration officials and lawmakers since the Ukraine crisis began. Read the report here. RUSSIAN MIL ACTIVITY 'HIGHEST' SINCE LAST YEAR: A new analysis by Janes, an open-source defense and security intelligence group, says that "Following a relative lull in activity after 1 January, Russia's armed forces appear to have entered their highest level of activity and movement since the autumn-winter build-up began in late October." The document, obtained by NatSec Daily, notes that the most significant movement is from all five Eastern MIlitary District commands into Belarus. "The EMD has deployed at least 15 units from all four of its combined arms armies [sic] and the Pacific Fleet since 4 January, with advanced elements having arrived in Belarus on 17 January," the analysis reads. The EMD force is equipped with more materiel than it would brandish during a normal training exercise. It has "at least two Iskander-M battalions, both of which have been observed carrying 9M273 ballistic missiles, long-range BM-27 multiple rocket launchers, and a large number of main battle tanks including the modernised T-80BVM and T-80BV, supported by army-level communications and logistics," per the analysis. There may be more movement still. Janes assesses that "[u]nits from the Central, Southern and Western MIlitary Districts appear to be deploying additional equipment, including tanks, artillery, and communications systems, to established sites near the Ukrainian border." Janes also expects six landing ship tanks to enter the Mediterranean Sea by mid-week. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: X2 Technology™ delivers affordability to RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ FVL aircraft.
Proven X2 Technology™ powers both RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ aircraft. Pilots and maintainers can easily transition between aircraft, improving affordability over the life of the Army's Future Vertical Lift program. Learn More | | | | | | NORTH KOREA FIRES CRUISE MISSILES: South Korean military officials reported that North Korea test-fired two suspected cruise missiles today in what The Associated Press' KIM TONG-HYUNG notes is Pyongyang's "fifth round of weapons launches this month." KIM DONG-YUB, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, told the AP that the latest launches "could have been followup tests of a weapon North Korea has described as a long-range cruise missile and first tested in September." North Korean state media reported at the time that the missiles "were fired from launcher trucks and could strike targets 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) away. It described those missiles as a 'strategic weapon of great significance' — wording that implies they were developed to carry nuclear weapons," per the AP. NAVALNY ADDED TO RUSSIA'S 'TERRORISTS' LIST: Jailed Kremlin critic ALEXEI NAVALNY — as well as a number of his top aides and former regional coordinators and staff — have been put on Russia's "terrorists and extremists" register, per our own LOUIS WESTENDARP. The designation comes after Russian courts banned Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation in September for being "extremist." Subsequently, several top Navalny aides and former regional coordinators have been arrested. Navalny is currently behind bars after receiving a two-and-a-half-year prison sentence in February on charges that he violated probation while he was recuperating in Germany after being poisoned.
| | | HACKERS TARGET BELARUSIAN RAILROADS TO STOP RUSSIAN TROOPS: Pro-democracy hackers known as the "Belarusian Cyber-Partisans" claim to have encrypted "servers, databases and workstations" belonging to the Belarusian rail network in an attempt "to disrupt its operations" and prevent Russian troops from entering the country, per The Washington Post's BRYAN PIETSCH. "At the command of the terrorist Lukashenka, #Belarusian Railway allows the occupying troops to enter our land," the group wrote on social media, referring to hard-line Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO. The hackers added that they "have encryption keys" and "are ready to return Belarusian Railroad's systems to normal mode" if two conditions are met: The Belarusian government must release "50 political prisoners who are most in need of medical assistance" and end "the presence of Russian troops on the territory of #Belarus." Meanwhile, the Belarusian Defense Ministry reported that Russian troops "were already arriving in the Kremlin-aligned country, which borders Ukraine and Russia, ahead of a February training operation," Pietsch writes. "That exercise has raised fears in the West that it would place Russian troops and equipment along Ukraine's northern border, near the capital, Kyiv, further encircling the country."
| | | LOCKHEED'S AEROJET ACQUISITION FACES ANTITRUST BLOCK: The federal government is looking into Lockheed Martin's proposed $4.4 billion acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne because it raises antitrust concerns, our own LEE HUDSONreported. "The move is the Biden administration's first decision involving a large defense acquisition and will be closely watched by other companies as they weigh future corporate mergers against potential blowback by the FTC," she wrote. "If consummated, this deal would give Lockheed the ability to cut off other defense contractors from the critical components they need to build competing missiles," FTC Bureau of Competition Director HOLLY VEDOVA said today in a statement. "Without competitive pressure, Lockheed can jack up the price the U.S. government has to pay, while delivering lower quality and less innovation. We cannot afford to allow further concentration in markets critical to our national security and defense." In an SEC filing, Lockheed said "We may like to defend the lawsuit or terminate the merger agreement."
| | | SENATORS AIM TO REVIVE RUSSIA BILL:A bipartisan octet of Senators met Monday on Zoom to hammer out a Russia sanctions bill that would bolster U.S. efforts to deter Putin from invading Ukraine, Alex and ANDREW DESIDERIO reported last night. The preliminary talks — featuring Sens. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio), JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) — were held to amend Menendez's "mother of all sanctions" legislation, which as written authorizes a slate of harsh financial penalties that would kick in only after any Russian invasion of Ukraine. Democrats and the White House are behind it, but Republicans want sanctions imposed on the Kremlin before an incursion into Ukraine, not after. "Among the changes under consideration to the stalled Menendez legislation include providing Ukraine with more security and anti-propaganda aid, as well as arming Biden with immediate sanctions authority. The updated bill would also give the president the option to waive the sanctions if the situation called for calming tensions," Alex and Desiderio wrote. The talks are still in the preliminary stage and what's considered could shift in the days ahead. The goal, though, is to knock out a compromise bill before the Senate returns next week. A person familiar with the situation said staffers are currently drafting some of the discussed changes and that another meeting of the eight senators could take place later this week.
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MEEKS LEADING CODEL TO UKRAINE:House Foreign Affairs Chair Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) left today with a congressional delegation to Belgium and Ukraine, his team announced in a news release.
Joining him are Reps. Cicilline, Allred, Malinowski, Jacobs, AMI BERA (D-Calif.), CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Pa.), MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.), AUGUST PFLUGER (R-Texas), MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.) and VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.). "In Brussels, the delegation will meet with representatives from NATO, the EU, and NATO and EU member states to discuss the security situation in Eastern Europe and the buildup of Russian troops along Ukraine's border and in Belarus," reads the news release. "In Kyiv, the delegation will meet with senior Ukrainian officials to discuss the security situation and reinforce U.S. support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity."
| | | SANDERS ADVISER WANTS MORE VACCINE INEQUALITY COVERAGE: MATT DUSS, Sen. BERNIE SANDERS' (I-Vt.) foreign policy adviser, had some tough-but-fair words for D.C.'s political and media professionals. "Comparing the intensity of coverage of Ukraine and Afghanistan to the lack of coverage of the far more serious threat of global vaccine inequality offers a window into the US's misguided and militaristic foreign policy debate," he recently tweeted in a short thread. "If only there was a way to bomb global vaccine inequality it might get some sustained coverage…" Duss noted that both the Ukraine and Afghanistan stories deserve intense coverage, not least because many have died and may continue to die from war. But the main thrust of his critique is "about what sorts of threats our political/media establishment deems newsworthy and why, and how those choices (mis)guide our policy debate." We here at NatSec Daily can't really argue with this. We'll still cover Ukraine, Afghanistan and other major stories, but we recognize we could've and should've done better at highlighting the security (and morality) problem of vaccine inequality. Per The Washington Post's ANTHONY FAIOLA on Monday, citing research by the humanitarian group CARE, "32 low- and middle-income countries have used less than half of the vaccines they've received from the Covax program, bilateral donations and other sources. Only 27 percent of received vaccines have been used in Burkina Faso, 37 percent in Ghana and 26 percent in Somalia. Burundi has used only 1 percent of received doses." Perhaps we should all focus a little more on this.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: KIMBERLY GAHAN is now principal deputy legal adviser at the National Security Council. She most recently was assistant legal adviser at the State Department. — SHARON WEINBERGER is joining The Wall Street Journal as national security editor. She spent the last 3.5 years at Yahoo News and Foreign Policy before that. — DOV LIEBER has been promoted to correspondent for Israel and the Palestinian territories at The Wall Street Journal. He most recently was a reporter there covering politics, security, technology and culture. — The New America Foundation seeks a program manager for its #ShareTheMicInCyber project. "A first-of-its-kind program, the project will create a fellowship, research and event series, all designed to provide cybersecurity professionals from diverse backgrounds with an opportunity to conduct policy analysis, explore critical cyber security issues, and explore questions of diversity and the human side of cybersecurity," reads the job posting. Apply here.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: X2 Technology™ delivers affordability to RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ FVL aircraft.
Because of their shared X2 Technology™, RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ will require fewer support personnel. Learn More | | | | | | — RENATA BRITO, FRANK JORDANS and LORNE COOK, The Associated Press: " Migrant abuses continue in Libya. So does EU border training." — PRAMILA JAYAPAL and BARBARA LEE, Foreign Policy: " A U.S. Foreign Policy Fit for the 21st Century" — STEPHEN WEISSMAN, SpyTalk: " Can Threats of a U.S.-Backed Ukraine Insurgency Deter a Russian Invasion?"
| | | — Chatham House, 7 a.m.: " Russia's Challenge to European Security: Confrontation at the Ukrainian Border — with EVELYN N. FARKAS, PAVLO KLIMKIN, RODERIC LYNE and DMITRY SUSLOV" — Chatham House, 9 a.m.: " The Hungarian Election and Its Significance for Europe — with TIMOTHY GARTON ASH and PÉTER MÁRKI-ZAY" — The Finnish Institute of International Affairs, 9:15 a.m.: " Nordic Cooperation Amid Pandemic Travel Restrictions — with THOMAS BLOMQVIST, KATJA CREUTZ, ALBERTO GIACOMETTI, KRISTIN HAUGEVIK, JOHAN STRANG and MIKAEL WIGELL" — The Brookings Institution, 9:30 a.m.: " Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for Africa in 2022 — with GARGEE GHOSH, AMEENAH GURIB-FAKIM, HAKAINDE HICHILEMA, JOHN MCARTHUR, GREG MILLS and ALOYSIUS UCHE ORDU" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: " The Capital Cable — with VICTOR CHA, MARK LAMBERT, MARK LIPPERT and SUE MI TERRY" — The American Enterprise Institute, 10 a.m.: " What to Look for in Biden's National Security Strategy — with MACKENZIE EAGLEN, PAUL LETTOW and GABRIEL SCHEINMANN" — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: " Influence Without Entanglement? China's Evolving Role in the Middle East — with LINA BENABDALLAH, SHAOJIN CHAI, JONATHAN FULTON and DAVID O. SHULLMAN" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: " Dancing Lights in Space: How to Manage the Risks of Satellite Close Approaches in Geostationary Orbit — with MARC BECKER, BRIEN FLEWELLING, DOUG LOVERRO, DAN OLTROGGE and AUDREY SCHAFFER" — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: " Turkey Trends Survey 2021: Turkish Public Perception and Concerns — with MUSTAFA AYDIN and GONUL TOL" — The Progressive Policy Institute, 1 p.m.: " EU's Reliance on Dirty Russian Gas: A Climate and Geopolitical Crisis — with PAUL BLEDSOE" — The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2 p.m.: " A Nuclear Dimension of the Ukraine Crisis — with MARIANA BUDJERYN and STEVEN PIFER" — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 4 p.m.: " Virtual InSTEP Discussion — with JAMES STAVRIDIS" — The Bipartisan Policy Center, 6:30 p.m.: " Tech Security Is National Security — with JASON GRUMET, KEITH J. KRACH and H. R. MCMASTER"
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