🤫 Shutdown showdown

Plus: Progressives want payback | Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By United to Safeguard America from Illegal Trade (USA-IT)   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Dec 01, 2021 Welcome back to Sneak. 📅 Join Axios' Tina Reed and Alayna Treene tomorrow at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event about next year's health equity policy priorities. Guests include Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), Baltimore Health commissioner Letitia Dzirasa and Brown University's Ashish K. Jha. Register here. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,345 words ... 5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: GOP split over shutdown politics Reporters question Senate Minority Whip John Thune before the Republican Party's weekly lunch yesterday. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images   GOP leaders on Capitol Hill are scrambling to reach a deal with a bloc of 15 Senate Republicans threatening a government shutdown to force a fight over the Biden administration's vaccine mandates, Axios' Alayna Treene reports. Why it matters: The push to defund the mandates — by holding the short-term government funding bill hostage — is largely symbolic, and highly controversial within the Republican Party. A shutdown as early as midnight Friday could trigger everything from national park closures to delays in receiving Social Security checks. Regardless of whether the group of conservatives backs off its threat, the trajectory is that a short-term funding bill ultimately will pass — and won't "defund" vaccine mandates. What we're hearing: According to several senators and their aides, the most-likely scenarios as Congress barrels toward its deadline at midnight Friday: Option 1: At least one of the 15 senators — a group that includes Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) — objects to a unanimous consent (UC) vote that would speed up passage of the short-term funding bill, triggering a shutdown. It would likely last only for the weekend, due to allotted time agreements for debating a bill, and a final vote would likely take place Sunday evening, leadership sources tell Axios. Option 2: Senate leaders agree to hold a vote on an amendment defunding Biden's vaccine mandates. It fails, given Democrats would prevent it from receiving the necessary 51 votes to pass, but the exercise would give Republicans a chance to say they voted on it. This is only an option if all of the senators threatening a shutdown agree to it. Option 3: Senate leaders reach a different agreement with the group that allows it to address its issues in another manner. As of now, no such deal seems imminent. Keep reading.     2. Republicans discount default deadline Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies before House members today. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images   Senate Republicans are feeling far more relaxed about the impending Dec. 15 federal debt-default deadline this time around, with many suggesting the real drop-dead date isn't until January, Alayna and Axios' Hans Nichols report. Why it matters: Their attitude toward the deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is distinctively different from the hair-on-fire rhetoric before the initial Oct. 18 date. But a Congress discounting the advice of a Treasury secretary is risky financial practice — and has the potential to affect markets itself. This time, some Republicans tell Axios, they think Yellen may be bluffing with an early deadline, trying to force Congress to act sooner rather than later and not give markets agita over a true default. "They can transfer money from the Highway Trust Fund for it, and take us probably into January," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told Axios. Republicans also appear more open about allowing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to cut a potential deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. For his part, McConnell has tamped down the anti-Democratic rhetoric he was using in October. Between the lines: Yellen continues to warn about the consequences of cutting it too close or missing a debt payment, using her congressional testimony today and yesterday to implore Congress to act. "America must pay its bills on time and in full," she told senators yesterday. "If we do not, we will eviscerate our current recovery." Keep reading.     3. First look: Conservatives prep Biden blitz A screenshot shows an ad running this weekend against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). Courtesy: America Next   A conservative group is taking its air campaign to defeat President Biden's $1.75 trillion social spending package to college football games, targeting vulnerable senators in Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire with a nearly $3 million buy, Hans writes. Why it matters: By running TV ads during this weekend's widely watched conference championships, America Next is seeking a big audience while trying to lash those senators to Biden's proposals — and sink them with his sagging approval ratings. "People in New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President," said Bobby Jindal, the former Louisiana governor who founded the group. David Bergstein, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Axios: "Voters know Senate Democrats are fighting to lower costs, cut taxes and grow jobs — and these false attacks will do nothing to save Republicans from their opposition to these popular policies or their flawed candidates fighting amongst each other in vicious primaries." Driving the news: America Next, a 501(c)(4)group, is launching a $2.8 million buy in expensive media markets like Boston, Las Vegas and Phoenix — and on stations carrying the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC championship football games. In tax-conscious New Hampshire, the ad mocks a fictional yoga-practicing New Yorker who's ridden out the pandemic in his second home. It targets Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H). In Arizona, the ad blames Biden for the increase in illegal immigration. "And Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) refuses to stop it. Too far. Too fast," says the narrator. In Nevada, the spotlight is about inflation, and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is hit for voting with Biden 97% of the time. "Tell Cortez Masto put the brakes on Joe Biden," the narrator concludes. Keep reading.     A message from United to Safeguard America from Illegal Trade (USA-IT) Fighting illegal trade in America     Illegal trade is a $464-billion-a-year business, and it's growing. What you need to know: Criminals get rich from illegal trade by robbing revenues used to provide essential services to Americans. Working together, we can fight back. See how.     4. By the numbers: Unlocking 400K green cards Re-created from CATO Institute; Chart: Axios Visuals Immigrants caught in backlogs to receive green cards could become U.S. permanent residents years — even decades — faster if a little-noticed provision in President Biden's $1.75 trillion "human" infrastructure bill becomes law, Axios' Stef Kight and Sophia Cai report. Driving the news: The provision would recover more than 400,000 family and employment-based green cards previously authorized by Congress but unused since 1992, according to data confirmed by a Senate aide. The cards allow permanent residency, though not citizenship. "It is disappointing that the United States is unable to adequately process green card visas in a timely fashion," Google spokesperson José Castañeda told Axios. "We support the House provision to recapture green card visas and encourage the administration to process green card visas quicker." By the numbers: Nearly 224,000 green cards allocated by Congress from 1992 to 2019 were never used, according to data from the CATO Institute, presented above. An additional 200,000 went unused in 2020, largely due to coronavirus-related processing delays, according to data from the American Immigration Council. Roughly 140,000 family-based and 62,000 employment-based visas expired Oct. 1. Details: Under the current bill, some employment-based green card applicants would be able to pay a $5,000 fee to waive the annual and per-country limitations and become permanent residents. So far, there have been no dissenting voices among Senate Democrats, but the measure in the current bill would still have to survive a "Byrd Bath" — a formal test of the provisions' budgetary effects — in the coming weeks. The Senate parliamentarian has already rejected other measures that would have included alternate citizenship pathways for undocumented immigrants. Keep reading.     5. Progressives seek Boebert punishment Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Cori Bush (far right) walk through the Capitol last month. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images   House progressives are seeking concrete punishment for Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) as retribution for her incendiary remarks against one of their own, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Axios' Andrew Solender writes. Why it matters: House Democratic leaders continue to consider their options amid the latest ugly incident in their chamber. Republicans are already threatening retaliation after Democrats stripped Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) of her committee assignments and censured Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.). "She needs to be removed from her committees, absolutely," Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) said of Boebert today. Boebert, walking past Bush on the Capitol steps as she spoke to Axios, shot her a glance but remained silent. Her office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Bush expressed hope "there are enough of us, or we can mobilize enough of us, to help leadership to see why this is a must." She said House leaders should act immediately, rather than "waiting to see what the Republicans will do." What they're saying: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), a fellow member of The Squad with Omar, told Axios there are a "number of options before us," including censure and stripping committee assignments. "I do believe we need to take an action," Ocasio-Cortez said. Keep reading.     6. Pic du jour Photo: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images   Vice President Kamala Harris entered the inaugural meeting of the National Space Council, during which she announced its expansion.     A message from United to Safeguard America from Illegal Trade (USA-IT) Fighting illegal trade in America     Illegal trade is a $464-billion-a-year business, and it's growing. What you need to know: Criminals get rich from illegal trade by robbing revenues used to provide essential services to Americans. Working together, we can fight back. See how.   🐫 We made it through another Hump Day. Thanks for reading. 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