Monday, December 20, 2021

☕️ In the shredder

Democrats are left reeling after Joe Manchin spikes BBB...
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December 20, 2021 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

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Good morning. I'm not sure what I was expecting when I told 3.6 million people I had Covid yesterday morning, but I was sincerely touched by everyone who sent messages of support. Thank you. I'm sending those same thoughts right back to all of you and your loved ones who are also going through it right now.

Btw, I'm doing perfectly well—at least well enough to crank out a newsletter. Just maybe wash your hands after reading.

Neal Freyman

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MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

15,169.68

S&P

4,620.64

Dow

35,365.44

10-Year

1.407%

Bitcoin

$46,918.40

Oil

$69.64

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 7:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Investors hope the annual "Santa Claus rally" will lift stocks in the short week leading up to Christmas (the markets are closed on Friday). But with everything slowing down ahead of the holiday, trading will be thin, which could lead to more volatility.
  • World politics: Leftist Gabriel Boric, a 35-year-old former student protest leader, was elected president of Chile in a major ideological shift for the historically investor-friendly nation.

ECONOMY

Democrats Yesterday

Jerry Seinfeld meme saying "Manchin!" Neal Freyman

Democrats' $2 trillion social spending package, known as Build Back Better (BBB), looks like it's headed to the paper shredder after Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) said he wouldn't vote for it.

  • "I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can't. I've tried everything humanly possible. I just can't get there," Manchin told Fox yesterday.
  • There are 50 Democratic senators, and 50 senators need to vote for this bill for it to pass. Because no Republicans support it, just one Democrat saying "no" means it's pretty much dead in its current form.

Manchin had been a BBB holdout for months, but his statement yesterday was the most definitive sign yet that he wouldn't back the central piece of Biden's economic agenda. It's a bitter pill for the president, who had been holding out hope that BBB could be passed before the New Year.

The fallout

Let's just say Manchin won't be getting an invite to Democratic slumber parties for a while. In an unusually vicious statement, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki ripped Manchin for "a breach of his commitments" to his fellow party members and called his comments "a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position."

  • Sen. Bernie Sanders added to the dogpile, arguing that Democrats should press ahead with a vote on the bill anyway. "If [Manchin] doesn't have the courage to do the right thing for the working families of West Virginia and America, let him vote 'no' in front of the whole world," Sanders told CNN.

What were Manchin's reservations? He said he was worried about 1) the package's contribution to the national debt and surging inflation and 2) the bill's climate investments that would move the US to greener energy sources "faster than technology or the markets allow."

Looking ahead…Democrats may try to regroup and formulate a new proposal that focuses on fewer programs than the expansive Build Back Better did. But in the short term, the demise of BBB has real-life consequences for millions of Americans: The expanded child tax credit, which the bill would have extended by one year, will expire at the end of the month.

        

COVID

Omicron Speed Round

A drive-thru Covid testing site in Miami. A drive-thru Covid testing site in Miami. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

US updates: On Meet the Press, Dr. Fauci predicted more stress will be placed on the country's hospital systems given Omicron's "extraordinary capacity" to be transmitted among people. About those tests you waited in hours-long lines for this weekend, Fauci said, "We've got to do better. We really need to flood the system with testing."

Lockdown in Europe: The Netherlands announced an abrupt shutdown of all nonessential businesses until at least January 14 to blunt an oncoming wave of Omicron.

But in South Africa…deaths are barely rising relative to spiking cases. Experts are trying to figure out what this reveals about Omicron.

Taped from New York…it's Saturday Night Live? The show's final episode of 2021 was hosted by Paul Rudd in front of an empty theater and featured sketches taped earlier in the week.

This league: The NBA postponed five games on Sunday with Covid-brutalized teams unable to field a squad. The Brooklyn Nets currently have 10 players in Covid protocols (half of their entire roster).

        

ENTERTAINMENT

Aunt May and Uncle Ben Would Be Proud

Still image from Spider-Man: No Way Home Sony

If Hollywood learned anything this month, it's that moviegoers want to see more swinging and less singing. Spider-Man: No Way Home brought in $253 million domestically during its opening weekend, smashing estimates and posting the third-biggest worldwide debut of all time, behind only Avengers: Endgame and Avengers: Infinity War.

Big picture: While you can always count on Peter Parker to fill the seats, virtually no one expected Spider-Man to put up these kinds of numbers. The film's distributor, Sony, projected a weekend opening of $130 million, and it was unclear whether Omicron would keep audiences at home. It…didn't.

  • Instead, Spider-Man cruised to the best opening weekend of the pandemic by a longshot. And after just three days in theaters, it's already the highest-grossing movie of this year and last.
  • "This is like Pedro Martinez notching a 1.74 ERA in the middle of the steroid era," Atlantic writer Derek Thompson tweeted.

Bottom line: Spider-Man's remarkable debut has theater execs feeling better about the future, considering they're on track to lose more than $7 billion in ticket sales this year compared to 2019 levels. But can you really bank on superhero flicks forever? A true box-office recovery may not be secured until theaters get a non-franchise breakout hit, according to the Brew's entertainment guru, Brandon Katz.

        

TOGETHER WITH MONOGRAM

Make No Bones About This Investment Opportunity

Monogram

The joint reconstruction market currently sits at $19.6B (and growing). Yet, up to a third of total-knee arthroplasty recipients still experience post-operative chronic pain. Yikes. And also, ouch.

Monogram understands that precision implants + precision insertion = the future of orthopedics, and so they designed a workflow for unwavering efficiency and accuracy. In fact, Monogram's robot arm doesn't just sound cool, it's also the only navigated arm with a cutting end-effector, which they believe will be the first active navigated arm on the market

If your knee-jerk reaction is, that sounds like solid investment potential, we'd say you're onto something. 

Monogram's key competitive advantage will be their ability to produce custom, robotically-inserted orthopedic implants rapidly, at scale. And seeing that the company has already raised a cool $26M, now's a pivotal time to join them in the future of orthopedics.

Invest here.

GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

Stat: Venture capitalists have invested ~$30 billion into crypto startups this year—more funding than the sector has received in every other year combined (the previous high was $8 billion in 2018). "Investors are funding anything and everything" crypto-related, PitchBook analyst Rob Le told Bloomberg.

Quote: "Our industry is collapsing."

Cannabis leaders in California argued in a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom that the legal industry in the state is getting its lunch eaten by the illegal market due to excessive taxes and regulation. The letter noted that 75% of cannabis consumed in California arrives via the black market.

Read: Can artificial intelligence solve the problems at the southern border? (Politico Magazine)

        

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Leslie Knope singing Jingle Bells Parks and Recreation

POTUS speech: President Biden will address the nation on Tuesday to outline additional steps the government is taking to address the Omicron variant.

Winter solstice: The first day of winter is on Tuesday. While it's the "shortest" day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, it also means things will only get brighter from here on out (at least from a daylight perspective—we can't be sure about anything else).

Economic data: A major inflation report will drop on Thursday—the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Fed's preferred report for measuring inflation.

Everything else...

  • Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating this Saturday.
  • And a Happy Festivus to everyone airing their grievances this Thursday.
  • The Staples Center will be renamed Crypto.com Arena on Christmas.
  • The newest Matrix flick will hit theaters on Wednesday, and the second season of quarantine classic Emily in Paris will drop on Netflix the same day.
        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • YouTube TV and Disney reached a deal to add back Disney-owned channels on YouTube's streaming service, just two days after negotiations fell apart.
  • Amazon is holding off on its ban of cell phones in warehouses in response to a rise in Covid cases and the deaths of six workers at a fulfillment center that was hit by a tornado last weekend.
  • Welp: Lumber prices are skyrocketing again. They doubled in price between mid-November and last Friday.
  • Bishop Sycamore High School, whose football team inexplicably made it onto an ESPN broadcast in August, has been deemed a "scam" by the Ohio Department of Education.

BREW'S BETS

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Lots of factoids: 52 snippets from 2021

Dive back into the week:

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FROM THE CREW

Holiday Listening Recs

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Looking for a podcast worth listening to? Join Business Casual for conversations with the biggest names in business. Some of our favorite recent episodes:

GAMES

The Puzzle Section

Turntable: It's like Boggle, but more fun because you don't need a pencil. Play the Brew's word-finding game here.

That's a mouthful

These are the three longest place names in the world. Can you identify the countries in which each is located?

  1. Taumatawhakatangi­hangakoauauotamatea­turipukakapikimaunga­horonukupokaiwhen­uakitanatahu (a hill about 1,000 ft. tall)
  2. Llanfair­pwllgwyngyll­gogery­chwyrn­drobwll­llan­tysilio­gogo­goch (a large community of villages)
  3. Chargoggagoggmanchauggagoggchaubunagungamaugg (a lake)

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ANSWER

1. New Zealand 2. Wales 3. United States (it's in Webster, Massachusetts)

         

Written by Neal Freyman

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