🤫 Scoop: Fed hint

Plus: Poll — The Manchin effect | Thursday, November 04, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Ripple   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Nov 04, 2021 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 856 words ... 3 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: Scoop — Senate senses Powell pick Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/Bloomberg via Getty Images   The White House is asking Democratic senators to meet with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell before Thanksgiving — leading some to believe President Biden will renominate him this month, people familiar with the matter tell Axios' Hans Nichols. Why it matters: The choice of Fed chairman is one of the most consequential in the U.S. and world economic systems. Senators from both parties also are preparing for the confirmation hearing to become a proxy battle over inflation. Republicans already criticize the Fed for its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, known as quantitative easing. Democrats have demanded Powell do more to combat climate change and have criticized how the Fed has regulated banks under his leadership. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is openly hostile to Powell, putting both him and the president on notice that they'll face a contentious nomination process. Warren called him a "dangerous man" during a hearing in September. Other Democrats, like Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), have lobbied the White House to renominate Powell. Nonetheless, he'll need help from other centrist Democrats, as well as Republicans, to get confirmed in a 50-50 Senate. Keep reading.     2. Poll: The Manchin effect Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images   A new survey conducted by Harvard University and The Harris Poll gives Democrats a road map to get back in voters' good graces. The challenge is Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) stands in the way of two of the most popular routes, write Axios' Alayna Treene and Caitlin Owens. Why it matters: Democrats are feeling immense pressure to turn voter sentiment around after Tuesday's abysmal election results. Yet two of their most popular policy ideas — expanding Medicare benefits and implementing paid leave — are opposed by Manchin. By the numbers: 78% of poll respondents said they favor expanding Medicare to cover vision and dental benefits, which largely got left out of Democrats' $1.75 trillion budget reconciliation plan. It does include hearing coverage, which is much cheaper than dental. 61% of respondents also said they favor 12 weeks of paid family leave. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reinserted four weeks of paid leave into the House version of the bill this week after it had been dropped entirely, but that's likely to face an uphill battle in the Senate — in part because of Manchin. During the past several weeks, Democrats across the political spectrum have complained Manchin is robbing them of these clear and crucial wins. Manchin defended his approach to the president's proposed $1.75 trillion social safety net expansion, telling reporters Monday, "As more of the real details of the basic framework are released, what I see are shell games." Keep reading.     3. By the numbers: N.J. close call Data: NJ Secretary of State Office, AP, NYT; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios Democrat Phil Murphy eked out a win to remain New Jersey's governor, yet most counties in his state swung right — just as in Virginia — when compared to 2020's Biden-Trump margins. Why it matters: It was another unexpected alarm bell for Democrats nationally. Such massive swings at the state, county and state legislative levels suggest far more seats are in play in next year's midterms, writes Axios' Stef Kight. By the numbers: Republican Jack Ciattarelli outperformed Donald Trump in all but one New Jersey county, as of Thursday late afternoon, and flipped four counties that voted for Joe Biden a year ago. The only county to vote for Murphy with the same margin as Biden was Hudson County, which includes New York City suburbs like Hoboken. The counties to shift furthest were Atlantic and Somerset. Atlantic voted for Biden by 7 percentage points but Ciattarelli by 12. Somerset moved from Biden +21 to Murphy +2. What to watch: The shift seen in the governor's race also played out down-ballot. Republican legislative candidates outperformed Trump by a median of 10.8 percentage points in their districts, according to Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman. If counties swung by that median margin across the country, Republicans would pick up 44 House seats in the midterms. Keep reading.     A message from Ripple The real power of cryptocurrency     Crypto helps drive: Real efficiencies for business. Real transparency for financial institutions. Real advancements in sustainability. Real innovations for consumers, both today and tomorrow. See for yourself how crypto helps move business forward — in the U.S. and around the world.     4. Dems plan repair blitz Rep. Susan Wild. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call   Congressional Democrats are heading home for their Veterans Day recess convinced Tuesday's losses prove they have a PR problem as much as policy trouble. Why it matters: The National Republican Campaign Committee — emboldened by its string of wins this week — released a new list of Democratic targets today. Democrats are casting about for an answer, report Axios' Sarah Mucha and Andrew Solender. Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), a front-line Democrat, told Axios she has a "big target on my back" from Republican opposition, yet Democrats aren't "particularly good self-promoters." She talked about a close friend who thought President Trump was responsible for the child tax credit she was receiving in her bank account through a direct deposit from the federal government. "Somebody else said to me, like when that direct deposit hits, it should be followed by 'Biden gave you this,' or something like that." Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said he learned lessons from the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package enacted in March. It taught him "things I think I can do better in terms of trying to connect those dots" for the public. Keep reading.     5. Pic du jour: Welcome to the House Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images   House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) embraces Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) on the day of her swearing-in. She assumed the seat once held by Marcia Fudge, now secretary of Housing and Urban Development.     A message from Ripple What's real about crypto?     See for yourself. The real business efficiencies it provides. The real transparency for financial institutions. The real advances in sustainability. And the real new wave of financial services it's creating. Take a look and learn more now.   📬 Thanks for reading this week. 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