News: POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: AP calls it for Murphy

Thursday, November 4, 2021

POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: AP calls it for Murphy

Nov 04, 2021

Good Thursday morning!

The Associated Press called the governor's race in Phil Murphy's favor, and a few hours later he gave the victory speech he had hoped to give Tuesday night.

"We just had the most New Jersey experience. I was on my way some place, and it took us longer to get there than we planned. As a matter of fact, some might say it took 44 years to get here," Murphy told the crowd in Asbury Park, referring, of course, to the Democrats' gubernatorial reelection drought since 1977.

But Jack Ciattarelli is not conceding, noting the total number of uncounted votes still not fully known. "With the candidates separated by a fraction of a percent out of 2.4 million ballots cast, it's irresponsible of the media to make this call when the New Jersey Secretary of State doesn't even know how many ballots are left to be counted," Ciattarelli spokesperson Stami Williams tweeted. (Hey, the AP was premature last year in the Malinowski vs. Kean race, so that's not wild).

Regardless of the AP's call, this could drag on for a while. And as some Democrats are saying Ciattaerlli's call to make sure "all the legal votes are counted" is a Trumpian reference to imagined voter fraud, I read it more of a hint at a recount if the race is close enough to make that a realistic option. If that happens, do you think Democrats won't challenge the legality of any votes?

The real drama is playing out in the state Senate right now. With Senate President Steve Sweeney's defeat approaching certainty, close to a third of the Democratic caucus in the state Senate has thrown their name in — or at least had allies throw their name in — as a potential Senate president. Between the potential Sweeney and Dawn Addiego losses, the weakening of the South Jersey delegation has strengthened Middlesex County's hand, even more with Assemblymember Andrew Zwicker (D-Middlesex) claiming victory in his Senate race. That doesn't necessarily mean that a member of the Middlesex delegation will ascend. But it means they're in prime position to cut a deal. And while state Sen. Teresa Ruiz (D-Essex), who was poised to become the second highest-ranking senator, might seem like an obvious choice for several reasons, there's one regional consideration going against her: Essex County Democrats already have a lieutenant governor (and more likely than not, still will) and Democratic chair.

Senate Democrats have delayed their party leadership votes but Assembly Democrats, last I checked, were still a go for today. And unless something develops that involves the Senate president contest, Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin is poised to continue leading the caucus.

A big question is how the legislative leadership will work with Murphy during his second term. Lawmakers now have good reason to push back against his progressive agenda.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy greets supporters

ASBURY PARK, NJ - NOVEMBER 03: New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy greets supporters as he arrives to give a victory speech at Grand Arcade at the Pavilion on November 3, 2021 in Asbury Park, New Jersey. Murphy's narrow victory over Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli makes him the first Democratic New Jersey governor in more than four decades to win reelection. (Photo by Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images) | Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

WHERE'S MURPHY? At Sacred Heart in Newark for the 10 a.m. Blue Mass, then Atlantic City to speak at the NJEA convention at 1:15 p.m.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He had a helluva career" — state Sen. Richard Codey (D-Essex) on Senate President Steve Sweeney, who ousted him from the post 12 years ago.

TWEET OF THE DAY: "On a positive note: Sweeney" — Former state Senate and 2013 Democratic gubernatorial nominee @BarbaraBuono

HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "HOLY CIATT THAT WAS CLOSE" — The Trentonian

TIPS? FEEDBACK? HATE MAIL? Email me at mfriedman@politico.com

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WHAT TRENTON MADE

SWEENEY'S MURDERDURR — Meet Ed Durr, the candidate who might knock Steve Sweeney out of the Senate, by POLITICO's Matt Friedman: "Meet Edward Durr, giant slayer. Maybe. Durr, a truck driver for the furniture store Raymour & Flanigan, held a roughly 2,000-vote advantage Wednesday morning over Senate President Steve Sweeney, an officer in the Ironworkers union who's led the upper house for 12 years and is the second most powerful official in New Jersey government … Even Durr harbored doubts about his chances, and wasn't ready to declare victory just yet, telling POLITICO he's "walking on eggshells" until the results are official. It's not clear how many outstanding ballots remain in the race. But it was looking bleak for Sweeney, who was until recently talked up in Democratic circles as a likely 2025 candidate for governor.

— Democrats brace for major legislative losses in South, Central Jersey

— "Gopal takes lead in close Senate race"

ASSEMBLY MINORITY LEADER — Assemblymember Brian Bergen (R-Morris) dropped out of the contest to become the next minority leader last night. "After many conversations with my colleagues in the Republican Assembly Caucus, it is clear that it is not my time," Bergen, a freshman, said in a statement. "I'm not upset by that. I only entered this race to offer the team a new direction and a bolder approach. That's not something that appeals to the group at this time. I don't need the title leader to lead. I look forward to spending my second term working hard to grow the party and holding the majority party accountable for their actions at every turn."

Assemblymermber Nancy Munoz (R-Union) had been the choice through a deal worked out with two other rivals for the post, John DiMaio (R-Warren) and Ned Thomson (R-Monmouth), but ran into opposition from conservatives over her moderate record. The caucus will decide today but as of last night the smart money was on DiMaio as minority leader.

2021 WAS FIRST NJ ELECTION TO FEATURE TWO TYPES OF POLL MESSES — " Why the pollsters were so wrong about the N.J. governor's race," by NJ Advance Media's Matt Arco and Brent Johnson: "Public polling showed Murphy was a shoo-in to become the first Democrat since Brendan Bryne in 1977 to win a second term in the Garden State. Instead, the results show the governor and Republican Jack Ciattarelli separated by less than a percentage point with no clear winner as of late Wednesday. So what happened with all those polls? 'In the past, we've been very good at that modeling, but in the Trump era that is going out the window,' said Patrick Murray, director Monmouth University Polling, which released a survey last week that showed Murphy beating Ciattarelli by 11 percentage points."

— "Newark leader excoriates Murphy campaign 'failure'"

RECOUNT? — New Jersey gubernatorial election could be headed for a recount, by POLITICO's Carly Sitrin: With Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy holding a slim 15,000-vote lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli as of mid-afternoon Wednesday, it appears only a matter of time before one of the campaigns requests a recount. New Jersey doesn't have a law for automatic recounts … Ciattarelli's campaign messaging has been carefully crafted to emphasize he wants all "legal" votes counted — a more cautious stance than fellow Republicans nationwide who have adopted a "stop the steal" outlook on some elections while still nodding to a base that holds deep skepticism in the vote counting process.

TAKE IT FROM ME: REPORTING IS HARDER THAN IT LOOKS — "Here's why it's taking longer to count NJ votes, and what's happening with Bergen totals," by The Record's Ashley Balcerzak: "For politicos refreshing their browsers to follow New Jersey's election results Tuesday, votes in certain counties trickled in painfully slow for what turned into a nail-biter of a night — and we still don't know who secured the governor's seat. Three hours after polls closed at 8 p.m. the Associated Press tally displayed less than 2% of precincts counted in Passaic County, and less than 1% of precincts in Essex County. Salem and Sussex counties had posted nothing. Some, including Bergen and Sussex counties, eventually posted different counts for different forms of voting in separate sections of their websites, making it difficult to understand the true vote tally … In Paterson, those new voting machines caused complications. In five election districts, officials could not count ballots because they accidentally locked the machines and needed to get a court order to gain access to the vote counts, Mayor Andre Sayegh told the Paterson Press. And in Essex County, 56 districts did not count votes in Newark, East Orange, Irvington, Maplewood and Montclair due to 'poll worker error,' County Clerk Christopher Durkin told News12."

THE LEGISLATURE HAS HAD ITS PHIL — " Murphy's progressive brand of politics died on Tuesday," by The Star-Ledger's Tom Moran: "The odds are he will squeak out a win, but this spanking exposed his political weakness and will reduce the Democratic majorities in the Legislature. It is bound to scare legislators away from supporting the full-throated liberalism that has defined this governor. 'These legislators just saw a number of their colleagues ushered out of office because they went along with Phil Murphy's agenda,' says former Gov. Chris Christie. 'Now they have to face re-election in newly drawn districts in two years. If you think they're going to do crazy progressive things that Phil Murphy wants them to do, you don't know politics.' … Democrats seem to forget that every time they win the governorship."

BILLS, BILLS, BILLS — "Senate's canceled quorum extends Murphy's deadline to act on bills," by POLITICO's Carly Sitrin: Amid a chaotic election return process, Gov. Phil Murphy will get an extension to act on more than 40 bills on his desk. Thursday was to be a procedural deadline by which dozens of bills would become law without Murphy's signature. However, the Senate early Wednesday announced it had canceled Thursday's quorum and Leadership Caucus meeting. That will extend the deadline for bills originating in the upper house until the next quorum date — Nov. 8, according to the legislative calendar.

DEMS, DISARRAY, ETC — Democrats reeling in New Jersey after internal polling proved dead wrong, by POLITICO's Matt Friedman: New Jersey Democrats took solace Wednesday in their belief Gov. Phil Murphy, trailing for much of election night to Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, would pull into a narrow but consistent lead as ballots continued to be counted. "Our internal numbers are crystal clear: When all the votes are counted, we'll win," Democratic State Chair LeRoy Jones said in a phone interview. But, privately, the party was riven with shock, confusion and behind-the-scenes maneuvering. Democrats hadn't detected a red undercurrent that propelled little-known legislative candidates to victory over previously well-entrenched Democrats and put Ciattarelli within striking distance of the governor. Their internal polling was dead wrong.

— "What the hell just happened in New Jersey? How the 2021 election redefined crazy"

THE CALL IS COMING FROM INSIDE THE STATEHOUSE — Senate Republicans: Election sends 'clear message' to Democrats, by POLITICO's Katherine Landergan: The state Senate Republican caucus on Wednesday said voters have sent a "clear message" and that the mandate Democrats thought they had to push "far left" policies "no longer exists." Every Republican senator signed onto a statement that said that while the results of some of Tuesday's elections might not be known for awhile, voters in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere are sending a "clear message," that "they are tired of having their concerns dismissed by Democrat leaders who think they know better."

'I AM THE BLAH BLAH BLAH' — " While gov's race still too close to call, insiders already wondering what Fulop will do in 2025," by Hudson County View's John Heinis : "With the win, Fulop is the first third term mayor in Jersey City since Democratic power broker Frank Hague nearly a century ago. He also went 6-2 in the city council races, losing Wards E and F and Ward C going to a runoff … Should they both get upset, Fulop would certainly rank high on the statewide contender list that also includes Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-11). The mayor expressed surprised when told that there was already chatter about him running for governor in 2025 before stating his focus is solely in Jersey City, though stopped short of ruling it out."

— "Turnout for N.J. governor's race may be one of the lowest in a century"

— "Newark leader excoriates Murphy campaign 'failure'"

— " Sources: Middlesex pumping iron for the Senate presidency"

— "NJ governor's race 2021: The challenges ahead"

— Video: " Close race for governor surprised everyone but Ciattarelli"

— "Bergen's Shama Haider makes history as first Muslim elected to NJ Legislature"

— " Gimigliano named counsel to legislative redistricting tiebreaker"

— "Friendly Fire, Election Edition: Murphy jostled, and the Sweeney Era ends in NJ Senate."

— Egea and Renna: "South Jersey deserves fair share of transportation, by Regina Egea and Christina Renna"

— Edelstein: "Democrats should be very, very afraid after Tuesday night"

— Steinberg: "The Murphy Irony: Despite the closeness of his Victory, in a Second Term, he may have more Power than Ever"

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BIDEN TIME

LEGAL DRUGS — "N.J.'s Menendez backs deal to lower drug prices after opposing earlier proposals," by NJ Advance Media's Jonathan Salant: "U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, who had opposed House legislation designed to lower the prices of prescription drugs, endorsed a compromise proposal on Tuesday that would allow Medicare to negotiate on some drugs and cap seniors' out of pocket expenses."

ANOTHER THING FOR SOUTH JERSEY DEMS TO BE THRILLED ABOUT — "Biden to nominate Castner to federal judgeship," by New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein: "President Joe Biden is expected to nominate Georgette Fries Castner, a partner at a top mid-Atlantic law firm with a stellar reputation in state legal circles, to serve as a U.S. District Court Judge in New Jersey, the New Jersey Globe has leaned. The 41-year-old Castner, who specializes commercial litigation and white collar investigations at Montgomery McCracken … Castner has spent 15 years as a federal and state litigator, and serves on the New Jersey Supreme Court's Committee on Character and the New Jersey Supreme Court Committee on Model Civil Jury Charges … She launched her public service career as chief of staff to Assemblyman (now Trenton Mayor) Reed Gusciora and also worked for Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman when she served in the State Assembly."

— "Padin nominated for federal judgeship"

— "Feds want 3 years in prison for N.J. gym owner who punched cop during U.S. Capitol attack"

LOCAL

THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC — "Montclair votes overwhelmingly to move to an elected Board of Education," by The Record's Julia Martin: "Montclair voters have chosen, by a large margin, to move to an elected school board from a mayor-appointed board. The town was among only 3% of school districts in the state with an appointed school board and had remained so despite five voter referendums since 1940, most recently in 2009 … an unofficial tally showed 8,187 had voted to change to an elected board, versus 3,394 choosing the status quo."

BUT HER LANES TO VICTORY ARE CLOSING — " Win or lose at the ballot box, Bridget Anne Kelly claims victory," by The Record's Mike Kelly : "Somewhere south of midnight, in a room over a tavern in Allendale and surrounded by her family and close friends, Bridget Anne Kelly, the woman who launched the Bridgegate scandal, finally claimed a victory of sorts. It wasn't quite yet the election victory she sought as the Republican candidate for Bergen County clerk. The votes were still being counted. And that may take all of Wednesday — and possibly longer. But for Kelly, just getting to this moment was a triumph. Elections tell us much about ourselves. They remind us of our values, our dreams, our anger, our impatience, our flaws as a nation. For Kelly, 48, a single mother of four who lives in Ramsey, this election was a personal validation. ... [S]he decided to put her future in the hands of voters. On Tuesday night, she knew she was back."

— "A 'Bridgegate' too far: NJ's Bridget Kelly trails in comeback bid"

— " Mail-in ballots giving Cureton narrow lead over Kugler in Bergen County sheriff race"

WAYNE WORLD — "Team 'Education First!' claims Wayne BOE race, topples incumbents," by The Record's Philip DeVencentis: "Three candidates who declared a common vision to bring basics back to the classroom won a fiercely contested race for seats on the Board of Education, according to unofficial results. Michael Fattal, Harry Prassakos and Iveta Wentink, using a slogan of 'Education First!', capitalized on controversial issues plaguing the K-12 district, ousting all incumbents in the running — including two backed by the teachers union. Their triumph on Tuesday night was a clear signal that voters wanted to see change on the nine-person school board, the victors said. 'We just pushed through,' said Fattal, a Millburn police officer who led all contenders with 7,036 votes."

— "Republicans shock Democrats in key races across Gloucester County"

— "Republicans hold slim lead in uncalled Passaic County commissioners' race"

— "Sussex County voters overwhelmingly reelect Republican commissioners"

— "Ocean County election results: Republicans win big across the board"

— " Jersey City Mayor Fulop wins historic third term, but can't pull off clean sweep"

— "Milltown voters reject retail marijuana; Jamesburg too close to call"

— " Teaneck will move local elections from May to November"

— "Hamilton Dems, behind in council race, hope for mail-in surge as Dems struggle in Mercer County"

— " Bayonne mayor, a former police captain, jumps into action to help catch robbers, police say"

EVERYTHING ELSE

—"Ex-[Newark] cop sentenced for taking bribes to protect brothels, feds say"

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