News: POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: No concessions from Sweeney and Ciattarelli

Friday, November 5, 2021

POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: No concessions from Sweeney and Ciattarelli

Nov 05, 2021

Good Friday morning!

Well, that was probably the most momentous week I've been around for since I started covering New Jersey politics in 2007. That's right, even bigger than Bridgegate. And we're not even done. The next Senate president is not determined.

In fact, the outgoing Senate president is not conceding he's on his way out, even though the AP's called the race. Like Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciatarelli, Steve Sweeney won't concede because every vote hasn't been counted, and he's holding out the unlikely possibility that he could still pull it off. (That hasn't stopped South Jersey Democrats from trying to make Nick Scutari Senate president. More on that below).

Ciattarelli last night posted a video on Twitter about his efforts saying "I don't want people falling victim to wild conspiracy theories and online rumors."

So while Sweeney and Ciattarelli wait for a miracle, the business of New Jersey politics goes on. My one request to those involved: Please wait at least until Tuesday to get an agreement together so I can take a long weekend. I need some rest.

WHERE'S MURPHY? In New Brunswick for a 12:45 p.m. funding announcement with Speaker Coughlin, then Piscataway for Rutgers President Dr. Jonathan Holloway's inauguration

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The results from Tuesday's election continue to come in, for instance there were 12,000 ballots recently found in one county. While I am currently trailing in the race, we want to make sure every vote is counted. Our voters deserve that, and we will wait for the final results." — Senate President Steve Sweeney

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo, Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill Rutherford Councilmember Mark Goldsack, NJAA's David Brogan, PVSC's Michael Mecca. Saturday for former NJ for Biden State Director Nabila Baptiste, Atlantic City Councilmember Jesse O. Kurtz, former weed campaigner Axel Owen, VFW's Bill Thomson. Sunday for Assembly Dems' Gina Wilder

TIPS? FEEDBACK? HATE MAIL? Email me at mfriedman@politico.com

WHAT TRENTON MADE

MEA POLLPA — "Pollster: 'I blew it.' Maybe it's time to get rid of election polls," by Patrick Murray for The Star-Ledger: "I blew it. The final Monmouth University Poll margin did not provide an accurate picture of the state of the governor's race. So, if you are a Republican who believes the polls cost Ciattarelli an upset victory or a Democrat who feels we lulled your base into complacency, feel free to vent. I hear you. I owe an apology to Jack Ciattarelli's campaign — and to Phil Murphy's campaign for that matter — because inaccurate public polling can have an impact on fundraising and voter mobilization efforts. But most of all I owe an apology to the voters of New Jersey for information that was at the very least misleading … The difference between public interest polls and election polls is that the latter violates the basic principles of survey sampling. For an election poll, we do not know exactly who will vote until after Election Day, so we have to create models of what we think the electorate could look like. Those models are not perfect. They classify a sizable number of people who do not cast ballots as 'likely voters' and others who actually do turn out as being 'unlikely.' These models have tended to work, though, because the errors balance out into a reasonable projection of what the overall electorate eventually looks like. Monmouth's track record with these models, particularly here in our home state over the past 10 years, has been generally accurate within the range of error inherent in election polling. However, the growing perception that polling is broken cannot be easily dismissed."

DIVERSITY MEANS A NON-IRISH-AMERICAN — South Jersey Dems move to support Scutari for Senate presidency, by POLITICO's Sam Sutton: South Jersey Democrats have started to coalesce around Sen. Nick Scutari to replace outgoing Senate President Steve Sweeney in the next legislative session, multiple sources told POLITICO on Thursday. Scutari, whose district includes parts of Union, Middlesex and Somerset counties, is the chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and the primary sponsor of legislation that legalized and decriminalized marijuana in New Jersey. Two sources with knowledge of the intra-party negotiations around the Senate presidency said Scutari, of Linden, has also aligned support within Hudson County's delegation, which could give him as many as eight votes in a caucus whose official headcount is expected to land at 23, down from 25 after Tuesday's elections. It will take 12 votes to secure the presidency. The official count backing Scutari for the Senate's top post is unclear, and his path forward is hardly set in stone.

DURRLARS AND CENTS — "Does sluggish economy hold clue to Murphy's close race?" by NJ Spotlight News' John Reitmeyer: "Stubbornly high unemployment. An angry business community. Bubbling frustration with higher taxes and increased spending in Trenton. All those factors could help explain why what once seemed like a win in a walk for incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy suddenly became a down-to-the-wire run against Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli. For starters, the race's final public-opinion polls suggested New Jersey voters were beginning to shift some of their focus back to issues like taxes and the economy instead of dwelling primarily on the coronavirus pandemic as they may have earlier this year. Murphy had been widely praised for his handling of the pandemic but there had been growing concerns over restrictions on businesses, vaccine requirements and masks in schools. And just as it became time to vote in New Jersey, many residents remained out of work; regaining all the jobs lost at the onset of the health crisis has remained elusive."

STRONGER AND FAIRER THAN THE STORM — "Has New Jersey's blue wave gone back out to sea? Phil Murphy survived," by The Record's Charles Stile: "Murphy largely ran as a progressive, offering voters a continuation of his first term, which saw the enactment of legalized marijuana, a boost in the minimum wage to $15 an hour, pay equity for women, the restoration of funding for Planned Parenthood clinics, new gun restrictions and a hike in taxes on millionaires, his signature achievement. All of those progressive-themed issues were popular with the public, but with the pandemic receding, voters appeared eager to return to normal debate over the neglected bread-and-butter issues. The progressive, Bernie Sanders-themed messaging of a 'fairer, stronger' economy may have appealed broadly, but it didn't inspire large numbers of centrist, suburban voters to register their approval at the ballot box … Meanwhile, Ciattarelli made this contest a horse race by firing up his pro-Trump base, casting himself as a sensible throwback — a genuine Jersey Guy who vowed to pull the state back from Murphy's liberal frontier. He vowed to fix shaky state services, like the sputtering computers that power New Jersey's unemployment program and the Motor Vehicle Commission, computers Ciattarelli accused the Murphy administration of neglecting. And he relentlessly pounded Murphy as a progressive dilettante who wouldn't know the first thing about kitchen-table issues."

—Farmer: "Why such a close election? In New Jersey, it's always because of taxes"

WHAT HAPPENED TO SOUTH JERSEY DEMS' CRACK OPPO RESEARCH? — "Newly elected GOP state senator's social media accounts contain xenophobic, anti-Muslim posts," by NJ Advance Media's Matthew Stanmyre: "Hours after Edward Durr seemingly solidified his stunning election victory over state Senate President Steve Sweeney, xenophobic and anti-Muslim social media messages have surfaced that were posted from his accounts. The posts came to light shortly after the Associated Press projected Durr's victory over Sweeney … He posted an anti-Muslim tweet in September 2019 calling Islam 'a false religion' and its prophet, Muhammad, a 'pedophile.' Durr called U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez a 'pedophile' in a pair of tweets from 2017 and 2018. And multiple posts from his Facebook account downplayed the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol … In September, a post from Durr's Facebook account compared COVID-19 mandates to Jews being exterminated in the Holocaust."

—"Edward Durr Jr., Republican truck driver and political novice, defeats longtime New Jersey state Senate President Steve Sweeney"

DEMAIO IS THE GOP'S HELM MAN — DiMaio elected Assembly minority leader, by POLITICO's Carly Sitrin: Assemblymember John Dimaio will be the chamber's next minority leader. Assembly Minority Office spokesperson Todd Riffle said in an email to POLITICO that DiMaio (R-Warren) won the vote Thursday morning during a legislative leadership meeting. DiMaio will replace current Republican leader Jon Bramnick who was elected Tuesday to the state Senate seat being vacated by Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. (R-Union), who is leaving the Statehouse to run for Congress against Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.).

—Republicans name Oroho Senate minority leader

VIN WIN — "Gopal now leads by 2,077, but GOP looks strong to flip Monmouth Assembly seats," by New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein: "State Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch) has increased his lead to 2,077 over Republican Lori Annetta after more votes in Monmouth County were counted on Thursday. The path for Annetta to flip the 11th district State Senate seat is nearly impossible. There are about 2,100 ballots still left to be counted — not including mail-in ballots that may arrive until close of business on Monday, as long as they were postmarked by 8 PM on Election Day — and she would need to win just about all of them. About 800 of the uncounted votes are provisional ballots, the New Jersey Globe has learned."

BLAME IT ON THE RAIN — "Towns hit hardest by Ida send a mixed gubernatorial message," by New Jersey Globe's Joey Fox: "If Ciattarelli's criticism of Murphy's Ida response was to be effective anywhere, it would have been in the towns and cities that were themselves hit the hardest. But a look at seven towns up and down the state that were especially thrashed by Ida shows no such straightforward conclusions. Some, like Harrison and the city of Passaic, saw Murphy drastically collapse compared with his 2017 performance; others, like Manville and Millburn, gave the governor a slightly better result than four years ago. Ciattarelli's message that Murphy screwed up when the state needed him most may very well have been effective statewide — but seemingly not everyone who bore Ida's brunt agreed with him."

THE LAST STRAW — "Say goodbye to plastic straws. The first round of NJ's plastics ban begins [Thursday]," by The Record's Scott Fallon and Amanda Oglesby: "The days of getting a plastic straw automatically with any drink are over in New Jersey starting Thursday. In a bid to cut down on plastic pollution in the state, all coffee shops, restaurants, convenience stores and any other business that sells food can only give out plastic straws to customers who request them."

—"Maggie Moran is leaving Kivvit"

—"Appellate court upholds public's rights in police search warrant case"

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

BIDEN TIME

—Mulshine: "Tuesday's verdict: Trumpism works a lot better without Trump"

LOCAL

PREMATURE ELECTORATION — "Hamilton Democrats win tight council race after preemie GOP victory dance," by The Trentonian's Isaac Avilucea: "The champagne campaign started prematurely. Republicans in Hamilton Township's closer-than-expected council race didn't wait for mail-in results before declaring victory on social media late Tuesday. It came back to haunt them, as the Democratic triumvirate of Anthony Carabelli, Charles 'Chudd' Whalen and Rick Tighe overtook the swaggering GOPers Wednesday, once mail-in ballots, tending to favor Democrats, were counted. It was a startling shift of fortunes that left first-time GOP candidates Joseph DeMarco, Robert Diszler and James Boozan stunned. Hours before, they gleefully posed for pictures holding up No. 1 fingers. And Diszler's dad boasted, 'WE WON!!!!!! All three seats!' in a premature-celebratory Facebook post, reminiscent of an infamous Nov. 3, 1948 headline in the Chicago Daily Tribune that declared 'Dewey Defeats Truman.'"

BLUE CHIP — "Robinson stumbles" by InsiderNJ's Fred Snowflack: "Chip Robinson had a bad night. The Morris County Democratic chairman was near the top of the local political world in 2018 – when Dems took two congressional seats in Morris — and also a year ago when both Joe Biden and Cory Booker carried the once dependable GOP redoubt. But then came Tuesday."

A BRIDGET TOO FAR — "Bridget Anne Kelly, key Bridgegate figure, loses race for Bergen County Clerk," by NJ Advance Media's Amanda Hoover: "Bridget Anne Kelly, a key figure in the Bridgegate scandal whose conviction was overturned, lost the race to become Bergen County Clerk … The Associated Press called the race Thursday. Kelly, a Republican, had received 45.9% of the vote, falling to incumbent John Hogan, a Democrat."

PASSAIC COUNTY — "In a very tight race, Passaic County political parties ask disenfranchised voters to step up," by The Record's David M. Zimmer: "Passaic County's Democratic and Republican camps on Thursday urged voters to ensure that their votes were counted, as they seek to close out tight races at the top of the ballot. The Passaic County Regular Republican Organization and the Passaic County Democrats issued post-election statements targeting voters who may have experienced complications on Election Day. With fewer than 100 votes separating third and fourth place in the race for three seats on the Board of County Commissioners, according to unofficial numbers released by the Passaic County Clerk's Office on Thursday afternoon, officials from both parties said the election is still too close to call. 'If you were turned away from your polling place on Election Day, if your site was not open on time, if your selections did not register on your ballot card, or if you had any other problems voting, please contact us ASAP so our legal team can help ensure your vote is counted,' read the statement from county Democrats. 'Every vote will matter.'"

—"Most Dems still trail In tight Passaic County races"

—"Bankston running for Newark South Ward seat"

—"Howell Deputy Mayor Thomas Russo is stepping down Saturday. So what happens now?"

—" Trenton ties third-worst year on record with 34th murder of 2021"

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EVERYTHING ELSE

MORE CHILLING — "Netflix at Fort Monmouth: What bringing film production back to NJ means for us," by The Asbury Park Press' Michael L. Diamond: "It's not a done deal; bids remain open until Jan. 12, 2022. But if it comes to pass, Netflix would give Monmouth County a leading part to play in an industry whose companies are racing to produce attention-grabbing movies, television shows and documentaries in a fight for viewers' free time. Netflix's arrival wouldn't be without costs. The company could receive millions in tax breaks. And it could lead to more traffic from a work force that by its nature is transient. But Netflix could give Fort Monmouth what it has been waiting for since the post closed 10 years ago: the chance to attract a major tenant that can help replace the 5,460 jobs that were lost."

WE COULD SOON BE ONE-QUARTER OF THE WAY TO SUMMONING CAPTAIN PLANET — "Wind power proponents plan to have their say," by The Press of Atlantic City's Bill Barlow: "A group of environmental organizations plans to begin a statewide effort to advocate for offshore wind, with their eyes on Ocean City. 'We know that offshore wind is key to New Jersey's renewable energy goals. Climate change represents a major threat to the way of life of shore communities,' said Ed Potosnak, executive director of the New Jersey League of Conservation Voters. His organization and others throughout New Jersey are expected to announce Thursday the formation of the New Jersey Wind Works campaign, with plans to advocate for offshore wind projects like Ocean Wind, the furthest along of several efforts to put wind farms off the coast."

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