Friday, November 5, 2021

🎯Axios AM: Pollster apology

Plus: The simplest toy | Friday, November 05, 2021
 
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Axios AM
By Mike Allen ·Nov 05, 2021

Happy Friday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,188 words ... 4½ minutes. Edited by Zachary Basu.

🎖️ Broadcast networks will break in at noon ET with coverage of the funeral for Gen. Colin Powell at the Washington National Cathedral.

 
 
1 big thing: Fight for vaccine competition

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

 

Rival vaccine makers are trying to elbow into the massive COVID-19 market, arguing for federal funding and claiming advantages over the current choices in the U.S., Axios health care editor Tina Reed reports.

  • Why it matters: There's huge remaining demand around the world, and researchers say there should be more support from the Biden administration — including money — to fill it.

State of play: Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson developed highly effective vaccines at record speed, and have produced more than enough doses to vaccinate every American.

  • But the rest of the world isn't getting the doses it needs from the U.S. Because of new variants, it's in America's interests to get as much of the world vaccinated as quickly as possible.

New competitors say they can help fill that gap. But not without the kind of intense investments that helped the Big 3 get there.

  • Researchers say they've got candidates that are more scalable than the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, and don't require the same cold storage.

The other side: A senior Biden administration health official told Axios that Operation Warp Speed, now the Countermeasures Acceleration Group, is working with other vaccine developers.

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2. Jersey pollster apologizes: "I blew it"

CNN's John King is shown at his Magic Wall during an election-night event for Gov. Phil Murphy in Asbury Park, N.J., on Tuesday. Photo: Angus Mordant/Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute on the Jersey Shore, writes an op-ed for The (Newark) Star-Ledger apologizing for a poll six days before the election that said Gov. Phil Murphy "maintains a sizable lead" over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

  • The poll had Murphy up by 11. The race wasn't called until Wednesday evening. With 99% of the vote in, Murphy is up by 1 point.

Murray, who has headed polling since 2005, writes that if you're "a Republican who believes the polls cost Ciattarelli an upset victory or a Democrat who feels we lulled your base into complacency, feel free to vent. I hear you":

I owe an apology to Jack Ciattarelli's campaign — and to Phil Murphy's campaign for that matter — because inaccurate public polling can have an impact on fundraising and voter mobilization efforts. But most of all I owe an apology to the voters of New Jersey for information that was at the very least misleading.

What we're watching: "If we cannot be certain that these polling misses are anomalies," the pollster writes, "then we have a responsibility to consider whether releasing horse race numbers in close proximity to an election is making a positive or negative contribution to the political discourse."

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3. Economist: Biden needs to be superhuman

Cover: The Economist

 

Looking ahead to 2022 and 2024, The Economist writes that Dems' "unpopularity with non-college-educated whites costs them large tracts of the country outside cities and suburbs":

To win the electoral college, the House of Representatives and the Senate they need a greater share of the raw vote than any party in history. Winning under these conditions, while simultaneously repairing national institutions and making progress on America's problems, from public health to climate to social mobility, is a task for a politician of superhuman talents.

Read the leader (subscription).

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A message from Bank of America

The path to a healthier, more inclusive economy
 
 

When governments and the nonprofit and private sectors work together, society can better achieve a healthier, sustainable environment and a more resilient global economy.

Here's how Bank of America achieved carbon neutrality and is amplifying its efforts to achieve a net-zero global economy.

 
 
4. Sign of our times: Peloton out of breath
Graphic: Peloton

Peloton slashed its full-year sales forecast by up to $1 billion, saying demand for its exercise bikes and treadmills was slowing faster than expected as people return to pre-pandemic habits, Reuters reports.

  • "It is clear that we underestimated the reopening impact on our company and the overall industry," chief financial officer Jill Woodworth said on a post-earnings call.

What's happening: Rising vaccinations and easing curbs have encouraged people to go back to gyms this year, hitting Peloton's growth and boosting the earnings of chains like Planet Fitness.

  • Peloton has tried to cushion the blow by cutting the price of its original bike by $400 and ramping up its ad spending.

Peloton expects to have 3.45 million connected fitness subscriptions by the end of the fiscal year, per Bloomberg.

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5. Arrest in Steele dossier case
Igor Danchenko leaves federal court in Alexandria, Va., yesterday. Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

Igor Danchenko, a Russian analyst hired to compile key parts of the infamous "Steele dossier" of alleged ties between the 2016 Trump campaign and Russia, was indicted yesterday on five counts of lying to the FBI about his sources.

  • Why it matters: Special counsel John Durham alleges that the FBI used Danchenko's faulty information to obtain a surveillance warrant on a Trump campaign aide.

The big picture: This is the third indictment Durham has obtained since he began investigating the origins of the Russia probe in May 2019.

  • Trump allies have long claimed that Durham's revelations would expose the Russia investigation as a politically motivated "witch hunt," and bring down top Obama administration officials like former FBI Director James Comey.
  • Those charges have not materialized.

Read the indictment.

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6. 🔥 Hot for holidays: Digital gifts
Illustration of digital gift

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

Digital purchases like game downloads and App Store credits are hot holiday gifts as the world confronts shipping delays and product shortages, Axios' Ina Fried writes in her "Signal Boost" column.

  • Digital goods are in infinite supply, obviating the need to check multiple stores, wait for packages and deal with other hassles. And there are more options than ever, ranging from games to video service subscriptions to credits for Roblox, Fortnite or the App Store.

State of play: Game consoles have been hard to come by for many months — including the latest Xbox and PlayStation models, but also other devices like the Nintendo Switch and Oculus Quest.

What's next: The new frontier of digital goods includes collectibles, like NFTs (non-fungible tokens) — as well as all those virtual outfits your avatar will need to be stylish in the coming metaverse.

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7. Tuesday's least likely winner
Edward Durr speaks near his home in Swedesboro, N.J., yesterday. Photo: Ellie Rushing/The Philadelphia Inquirer via AP

New Jersey's longtime state Senate president, Democrat Steve Sweeney, lost re-election, falling to a Republican furniture company truck driver who spent $2,300 on the race, AP reports.

  • Edward Durr, 58, won by 4 points (32,497 votes to 30,268 — 52% to 48%) in a politically competitive suburban Philadelphia district (parts of Cumberland, Gloucester and Salem counties), as Republicans gained across the state.

Montclair State University political scientist Brigid Harrison said: "Steve was, in many ways, just how people voiced their dissatisfaction and anger with the larger political structure."

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8. 1 smile to go: Toy Hall of Fame
American Girl dolls "selfie." Photo: American Girl via National Museum of Play

American Girl dolls, the strategy board game "Risk" and sand — plain sand — were inducted yesterday into the National Toy Hall of Fame, housed at The Strong National Museum of Play in Rochester, N.Y.:

  • The 18-inch American Girl dolls "explore America's social and cultural history. Each historical doll comes with a unique narrative that fits her era, such as Molly McIntire, who is waiting for her father to return home from World War II."
  • "Based on the French game Le Conquete du Monde, Risk translates the hobby of wargaming with miniature figures into a mass-produced war and strategy board game. First published in the United States in 1959, Risk challenges players to control armies and conquer the world."
  • Educator Maria Montessori has noted that sand is a "substance that the modern child is allowed to handle quite freely."

Read the release.

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A message from Bank of America

Creating a more sustainable future
 
 

The private sector can play a significant role in paving the path to a net-zero economy by investing in renewable energy projects, innovating how it can provide the capital needed to scale such projects globally and more.

Bank of America is focusing its business and operations to do its part.

 

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