News : POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: BETTING AGAINST BAKER — Boston pols PICK SIDES in mayor’s race

Tuesday, August 17, 2021

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: BETTING AGAINST BAKER — Boston pols PICK SIDES in mayor’s race — SOLDIERS’ HOME lawsuit

Aug 17, 2021

BETTING AGAINST BAKER — Someone's betting that Gov. Charlie Baker won't be running for a third term next year.

Baker hasn't announced anything publicly. But something whipped traders on PredictIt, the online "stock market" for politics, into a frenzy on Monday.

Baker's odds inexplicably plummeted on the site's 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election page Monday morning, while those for Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito and state Attorney General Maura Healey, a Democrat still weighing her options for 2022, soared. A PredictIt spokesperson told me the site saw about 10,000 trades in just a few hours — "a big increase" for a market that had only seen about 55,000 shares traded total. Prior to Monday, the most shares traded in a day had been about 3,000.

By the end of the day, the field had reset with Baker atop the pack and Healey close behind. But the action set the rumor mill churning. Some think the governor is running again, pointing to his recent and upcoming fundraisers. Some wonder if he talked it over with his family on their recent trip to California and that a decision might be forthcoming.

Baker's under a bit of pressure from Republican former state Rep. Geoff Diehl, who jumped into the race last month. And one Republican operative told me the longer it's taking Baker to make up his mind, the more "nervous" his supporters are growing.

But as the two-term incumbent, he's got time. Baker didn't announce his 2018 reelection bid until November 2017, and dragging things out this time around could make things more difficult for potential opponent Healey.

The state is also in the midst of a coronavirus resurgence. Baker's more hands-off approach — leaving masking decisions up to municipalities and schools, and sticking to statewide guidance that differs from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations — is angering some Democrats and teachers unions , so a big political announcement right now would be ill-timed.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Boston electeds are increasingly lining up behind different candidates as the mayor's race hurtles toward the September preliminary election.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: City Councilor Michelle Wu is rolling out endorsements from House Assistant Majority Leader Mike Moran and City Councilor Liz Breadon at a 10 a.m. event in Allston.

"Michelle's creative and detailed plans respond to Boston's most pressing needs: affordable housing; climate resiliency; reforming a public school system so that it serves all of our children; criminal justice reform; and addressing the continuing pandemic," Breadon said in a statement.

Along with Moran and Breadon, who represent Allston-Brighton, Wu, who's from Roslindale, has City Councilor Lydia Edwards of East Boston and Senate Assistant Majority Leader Sal DiDomenico, whose district dips into a couple parts of the city.

Acting Mayor Kim Janey, who lives in Roxbury, has the backing of Jamaica Plain state Rep. Nika Elugardo and Boston City Councilor Ricardo Arroyo of Hyde Park.

City Councilor Andrea Campbell, who lives in Mattapan, has Roxbury state Rep. Chynah Tyler, chair of the Black and Latino Legislative Caucus, and Jamaica Plain state Rep. Liz Malia in her corner.

Note how the candidates are locking up endorsements outside their home bases — and tapping into these new networks to help broaden their reach in parts of the city where voters may be less familiar with them in a race that's still very much up for grabs.

TODAY — HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra tours medical centers and vaccination sites and holds roundtables with Rep. Lori Trahan in Lawrence and Lowell. Boston mayoral candidate John Barros announces a vocational reorganization plan at 10 a.m. in Roxbury. Rep. Seth Moulton hosts a media availability on Afghanistan at his Salem office at 11 a.m. Campbell attends a Haiti relief supply drive in Mattapan at noon and a Boston Alphas candidate conversation at 1 p.m. at Savvor. Janey delivers remarks at a ribbon-cutting for the JPNDC Pitts Apartments at 3 p.m. in Roxbury. Rep. Ayanna Pressley hosts a conversation on housing issues at 5 p.m. at the Marcus Garvey Gardens courtyard.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: lkashinsky@politico.com.

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THE LATEST NUMBERS

– "Massachusetts coronavirus cases spike 2,996 over the weekend, hospitalizations keep climbing," by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: "After the new 2,996 COVID infections reported over the weekend, the Bay State's seven-day average of virus cases is now 911. That's more than 14 times the daily average of 64 cases in June. The average percent positivity is now at 2.74%, which is nearly nine times the daily average of 0.31% in June."

DATELINE BEACON HILL

– "Legislators, advocates call for Mass. prison reforms after Spotlight investigation into excessive force allegations," by Mark Arsenault, Boston Globe: "Advocates and legislators are calling for reforms to the Massachusetts prison system, in response to a Boston Globe Spotlight story on Sunday that highlighted a raft of excessive force allegations by prisoners at the maximum-security Souza-Baranowski Correctional Center in early 2020."

VAX-ACHUSETTS

– "Charlie Baker won't order mask mandate, Massachusetts 'dramatically different'," by Erin Tiernan, Boston Herald: "Gov. Charlie Baker said he still has no plans to order a mask mandate even as all of Massachusetts is now considered to be at 'high' or 'substantial' risk of coronavirus transmission. … The classification triggers a federal recommendation that everyone wear masks in indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status. Baker has advised masks indoors only for those at higher risk from COVID-19 or who live with an adult that is unvaccinated or at a higher risk for severe illness."

– "Mass. leaders hope this school year will be back to normal — with no remote learning. Is that realistic?" by Naomi Martin and Bianca Vázquez Toness, Boston Globe: "...amid recent closures of local summer camps, the abrupt shutdown of schools in other states, and rising rates nationwide of children being hospitalized with COVID, some parents, school leaders, and experts are questioning whether the state's ban on remote learning may be unrealistic — and possibly unsafe. … The uncertainty has left some schools to quietly create their own contingency plans, including preparing weeks of homework for students to do if they're forced to go home."

– "Biden administration to announce most Americans will need coronavirus booster shots," by Laurie McGinley and Tyler Pager, Washington Post.

FROM THE HUB

– "For Many In Boston, Debates Over Exam School Policy Distract From Larger Issues," by Carrie Jung, WBUR: "[Charlie] Kim watched the debate over exam school admissions, and which students had access to them, last year when his daughter was applying. But at the time, he was trying to deal with a more pressing issue in his eyes: the extensive water damage at the Horace Mann School for the Deaf."

– "Boston councilors, education advocates file petitions to let voters decide who should be on school committee," by Naomi Martin, Boston Globe: "An education equity group and two Boston councilors announced moves Monday aimed at restoring voters' ability to elect Boston School Committee members, instead of the current mayor-appointed structure. The change would bring Boston — which has had an appointed system since 1991 — in line with the rest of the state, where all other school committees are elected."

– More: "Many council hopefuls support return to elected school committee," by Katie Trojano, Dorchester Reporter: "All five of the mayoral candidates favor some form of change to the current appointment system, but none favor a return to a fully-elected school committee as pitched in this petition. … But, many candidates for district and at-large seats— including two incumbents running for re-election— are far more supportive of making the composition of the school board totally up to the will of city voters."

– "'We Need To Hear Black Women's Voices': Study At Boston Hospitals Looks At Wide Disparity In Maternal Deaths," by Marilyn Schairer, GBH News: "Black women in Massachusetts are 2.5 times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than other women, according to CDC data. The UMass Boston Birth Equity Study is designed to help lawmakers and health officials better understand those higher rates of death."

THE RACE FOR CITY HALL

– FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: State Rep. Liz Miranda has endorsed Boston City Councilor Julia Mejia in her at-large reelection bid. "From passing residential kitchen licenses to elevating youth voices and supporting hardest hit micro-to-small businesses, Julia's been a strong partner to me in the legislature," Miranda said in a statement. Mejia has also recently been endorsed by the Massachusetts Sierra Club, SEIU Local 509 and UNITE HERE Local 26.

– NEW THIS MORNING: Kendra Hicks has been endorsed by United Auto Workers Region 9A, Boston Building Trades Union, SEIU 888 and SEIU 509 in her bid to represent District 6 on the Boston City Council. "Hicks, a former SEIU 888 member, has centered the needs of working-class residents of the district in her campaign. 'I am deeply humbled by the overwhelming support I am receiving from labor organizations across the district,'" Hicks's campaign said in a statement.

– "Andrea Campbell Ramps Up Criticism Of Janey, Citing 'Missteps Or Inaction On Major Crises'," by Zoe Mathews, GBH News: "Boston Public Radio co-host Jim Braude characterized Campbell as the most vocal critic of Acting Mayor Kim Janey, on matters like police reform and the city's COVID-19 response — both complex issues which Janey inherited from former Mayor Marty Walsh when he left the city to become the U.S. Secretary of Labor. Campbell responded that her criticism is not aimed at Janey personally but 'on issues.'"

– "With A Month To Go Before Boston's Mayoral Primary, Wu And Campbell Target Key Neighborhoods," by Anthony Brooks, WBUR: "City councilors and Boston mayoral candidates Michelle Wu and Andrea Campbell criss-crossed the city campaigning amid steamy, summer weather over the weekend as the quickly approaching primary election heats up. Campbell focused on Dorchester and Roxbury, where she launched a canvassing effort Sunday, knocking on doors in the neighborhood where Acting Mayor Kim Janey lives. … as her schedule of campaign events made clear, Wu's focus is citywide."

BALLOT BATTLES

– "Original Coalition Member Not On Board with App-Based Driver Ballot Q," by Chris Lisinski, State House News Service (paywall): "In March, when an industry-backed coalition launched its effort to change worker classification and benefits for app-based drivers in Massachusetts, it counted the Urban League of Eastern Massachusetts as one of its 'founding members' and led its first-ever press release with a quote from the League's CEO. But with the coalition now pursuing a ballot question and a contentious campaign looming, board members at the Urban League of Eastern Mass. are distancing themselves from the effort, saying they have not yet taken a stance on the initiative petition that could prompt a seismic shift in the labor landscape."

PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES

– "Bondholders suing MBTA for more than $8 million over delayed Wollaston project," by Joe Difazio, Patriot Ledger: "Two insurance companies that issued more than $100 million in bonds to cover the cost of renovating the MBTA's Wollaston station are now suing the agency for between $8 million and $9 million over delays and changes to the project. The insurance companies are alleging the MBTA breached their contract, among other issues, by continuously changing what the project would entail, which ran up costs."

– "Weekend commuter rail off to good start," by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: "Weekend service on all of the MBTA's commuter rail lines returned on July 3, and already ridership is back close to pre-COVID levels."

IT'S NOT EASY BEING GREEN

– "More carbon pricing could enable state to meet climate goals, report says," by Danny Jin, Berkshire Eagle: "Even before Massachusetts committed to a goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, climate groups pushed the state to make climate-related investments to meet its targets. Legislation known as the Green Future Act, a new report suggests, could provide $1.2 billion per year to achieve those goals. The bill would price carbon emissions in previously untaxed industries and establish a 'green bonding' borrowing program. Just those two initiatives would spur $8.8 billion worth of state and local climate-friendly infrastructure spending from 2023 through 2030, according to the report published Monday by Boston-based nonprofit Climate XChange Education and Research."

DAY IN COURT

– "Holyoke Soldiers' Home workers file class action lawsuit against former leaders over physical, emotional fallout from COVID outbreak," by Stephanie Barry, Springfield Republican: "A federal lawsuit leveled by Holyoke Soldiers' Home employees against former top administrators ousted amid the COVID-19 pandemic argues workers were forced to care for sick and dying veterans in 'inhumane conditions' and many remain long-haulers with physical and emotion scars today. Moreover, according to the lawsuit, top administrators initially ignored Centers for Disease Control guidance on containing the virus and lied to state officials about measures they were taking to protect residents and staff once the first veteran tested positive on March 15, 2020."

– "Swansea elected official will face criminal charges for allegedly destroying campaign signs on camera," by Jo C. Goode, Herald News: "A Swansea elected official will face charges for allegedly destroying the campaign signs of two political rivals' hours after winning a write-in campaign for a seat on the Planning Board last April."

– "Former Somerset School Committee candidate's harassment case postponed," by Jo C. Goode, Herald News: "The harassment case against former Somerset School Committee candidate Jessica Machado, brought by her political rival, Somerset elementary School Committee member Shauna Geary, was postponed again in Fall River District Court on Friday."

FROM THE DELEGATION

– CHATTING CLIMATE CHANGE: Extreme heat "has become a common reality for our most vulnerable neighborhoods" and weather-related disasters and sea level rise are "threatening many homes, livelihoods and critical infrastructure in coastal communities like Chelsea, Everett and here in Boston," Rep. Ayanna Pressley told White House climate czar Gina McCarthy during a visit to East Boston on Monday.

"Let me be clear, these injustices did not happen overnight, neither are they organic. Rather they are the result of generations of chronic disinvestment and racist policymaking," Pressley said, calling to advance the "bold reconciliation package" that has a rocky road ahead in the House. McCarthy said "we need to move now on climate and we need to move broadly and with deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions." Boston 25 News has more.

– AFGHANISTAN FALLOUT: Sens. Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren are among the 44 senators calling on the Biden administration to create a humanitarian category and speed up the paperwork to help quickly relocate women leaders to the United States from Afghanistan. Pressley called for the U.S. to serve as a "refuge to those that are fleeing violence in the region." The Boston Globe's Jim Puzzanghera has more from the Massachusetts delegation on the still-unfolding chaos in Afghanistan.

DATELINE D.C.

– "Biden was barreling toward perilous political waters. Then Afghanistan happened," by Natasha Korecki, Christopher Cadelago and Ally Mutnick, POLITICO: "The cataclysmic series of events over the last several days marked the most devastating period of the Biden presidency, and it comes at the precise moment when a growing number of Americans were already fearful of inflation and doubting Biden's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the economy. Now, Biden's credibility on the world stage is on the line."

THE LOCAL ANGLE

– "Former soldier and state rep., Naughton says he's 'devastated' by chaos in Afghanistan," by Henry Schwan, Worcester Telegram & Gazette: "Harold Naughton has a 'tremendous number of mixed emotions' when it comes to what is happening in Afghanistan. The former 12th Worcester District state representative from Clinton — who served in Afghanistan as a member of the U.S. Army, and now works for the law firm Napoli Shkolnik — used the word 'devastated' to describe his feelings."

– "'It breaks my heart,' says late soldier's mother," by Paul Leighton, Salem News: "It was nearly 13 years ago when Beverly's Stephen Fortunato was killed by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan. The death of the U.S. Army infantryman sparked an outpouring of grief and support in his hometown, where thousands of people lined the streets for his funeral procession. All these years later, the chaotic end to America's longest war is stirring emotions for Elizabeth Crawford, Fortunato's mother."

– "'Anger, sadness, fear': Veterans of Afghan war react to collapse," by Brian MacQuarrie and Kate Lusignan, Boston Globe: "As shocking footage from the fall of Kabul played over and over, Afghanistan war veterans began calling Home Base, a Boston-based program that works to heal the emotional and psychiatric wounds of war."

– "Elms College dean 'heartbroken' over devastation in Haiti where nursing school has program," by Anne-Gerard Flynn, Springfield Republican: "Kathleen Scoble, dean of the College of Our Lady of the Elms School of Nursing, has been closely monitoring her email since a 7.2 magnitude earthquake on Saturday struck southwestern Haiti, killing more than 1,400 and injuring thousands more."

– "Somerset seeing exodus of town officials," by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: "Over the last three months, the police chief was replaced, the town planner was let go, and the town manager announced his retirement. The building inspector says he left last week to take a job elsewhere before he was terminated. He says the town's politics is toxic, with his car being vandalized and a package being delivered to his home filled with off-color glitter. All of the departures coincide with a political makeover of the town and its Board of Selectmen that was triggered by outrage over the management of Brayton Point, a massive property on the Taunton River that used to be home to one of New England's largest coal-fired power plants."

HAPPY BIRTHDAY – to Ari Meyerowitz and Lisa Murray.

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