Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Biden’s big bet on Afghanistan

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Aug 17, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Tara Palmeri

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DRIVING THE DAY

BIDEN'S POLITICAL CALCULATION, AND FALSE CHOICE, ON AFGHANISTAN — Before President JOE BIDEN took the podium to address the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan on Monday, senior Obama White House adviser DAVID AXELROD was on CNN giving him some free advice: "You cannot defend the execution here. … This has been a disaster," he said. "He needs to own that failure. … He's the commander in chief."

As Axelrod said after, Biden did anything but. In an almost Trumpian speech from the West Wing, he admitted no tactical errors and said he had no regrets. Even as he asserted that "the buck stops with me," Biden pointed fingers at everyone but himself: DONALD TRUMP tied his hands with his deal with the Taliban, the Afghan army wasn't willing to fight, and some civilians didn't initially want to leave.

Most of all, he defended the pullout he's been advocating for years.

"I stand squarely behind my decision," he said. "American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight. … How many more generations of America's daughters and sons would you have me send to fight Afghanistan's civil war when Afghan troops will not?"

Of course, that's not the issue. And Republicans — as well as many in the media — were quick to point that out that he seemed to be suggesting a false choice between an indefinite presence in Afghanistan and a bungled evacuation.

But Biden is making a political calculation here: that everyday Americans care more about getting out of Afghanistan than the fate of Afghans left behind. That the more he focuses on the larger message of ending the longest war in U.S. history, the quicker this foreign policy black eye will heal.

How that gamble turns out for the president hinges on how bad the situation gets over the next few days. Biden promised that "we intend to transport out thousands of American citizens" as well as Afghans and their families who need to be evacuated. Will there be more scenes of chaos and death, or can the military bring some semblance of order to the evacuation mission?

Here's one bad sign for Biden: A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted amid the chaos in Afghanistan shows an eye-popping plummet in the percentage of voters who support the U.S. withdrawal. Details from Maeve Sheehey: "The poll, conducted from Aug. 13-16 among a sample of 1,999 registered voters, indicated that just 25 percent of American voters think the withdrawal from Afghanistan is going well. Just 49 percent of voters continued to support the withdrawal, down from 69 percent in April."

 

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THE STEP BACK — There's already a lot of talk about how this will affect Biden's presidency long-term. As our Natasha Korecki, Christopher Cadelago and Ally Mutnick write, "the cataclysmic series of events over the last several days marked the most devastating period of the Biden presidency, and it comes at the precise moment when a growing number of Americans were already fearful of inflation and doubting Biden's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the economy. Now, Biden's credibility on the world stage is on the line.

"It all adds up to a troubling political scenario for Democrats, who had held up their president as a seasoned international statesman, the 'adult in the room' who promised to reverse what they viewed as the reckless policies of Trump. Republicans are moving quickly to try and ensure the foreign policy blunder sticks, in an attempt to undermine one of Biden's core political selling points — his steady hand — and to bludgeon down-ballot candidates in tough districts who believe the best way for their party to hold power is to pitch themselves as 'Biden Democrats.'"

Meanwhile, Hill Democrats are stewing over the fiasco, as CNN's Lauren Fox, Jeremy Herb and Annie Grayer report — especially after several warned the administration about such a crisis. Said Rep. CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Pa.), an Air Force veteran: "These past few days have been difficult to process, and not because the Taliban's progress was surprising … In fact, the opposite. We sounded the alarm, and our dire warnings fell on deaf ears." Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.) was clearly peeved about White House talking points tone-deafly blaming Afghans when he told them this: "Anyone writing goddamn talking points should get on the visa line," he told them.

— In the Senate, Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) has vowed his own investigation that asks "tough but necessary questions about why we weren't better prepared for a worst-case scenario involving such a swift and total collapse of the Afghan government and security forces."

— Related: "'Cut the bureaucratic b.s.': Inundated lawmakers call for speeding up Afghanistan evacuations," by Sarah Ferris, Heather Caygle, Olivia Beavers and Nicholas Wu: "Dozens of members of Congress are joining the scramble to evacuate people trapped in Afghanistan, urging President Joe Biden's administration to expedite the relocations."

In Europe, our allies are watching closely and don't like what they see. Per John Harris and Ryan Heath , "the original euphoria among most traditional allies about the departure of Donald Trump from the White House is now commonly tempered by concern about whether his successor is sufficiently commanding and reliable to restore the United States to being a constructive force in a chaotic and interdependent world. The timeless ambivalence about U.S. presumptions of being the world's policeman looks different at a moment when the policeman may have scant ability or interest in keeping the streets safe in any of the world's most dangerous precincts." More from POLITICO EU's Matthew Karnitschnig: "Disbelief and betrayal: Europe reacts to Biden's Afghanistan 'miscalculation'"

 

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A SOBERING READ — "He spent his adult life helping U.S. soldiers. Now, he's desperately fleeing Afghanistan," by Wesley Morgan for WaPo, with quotes like these from an Afghan interpreter talking to a U.S. soldier over the phone: "If I don't make it, thanks for everything … Thank you, brother. It was an honor working side-by-side with the U.S."

A SOBERING DETAIL, via WaPo's Karen DeYoung, Dan Lamothe and Susannah George : "People familiar with the situation said the pilots declared an emergency when they could not put their landing gear up. The crew diverted and landed in a nearby third country, and some human remains were found in the wheel well when it was inspected, they said."

VIDEO OF THE DAY — Former CIA analyst and Afghanistan war veteran MATT ZELLER, co-founder of SIV nonprofit No One Left Behind, rips Biden for suggesting Afghans chose to stay behind willingly. "We had all the people and equipment in place to be able to save these people months ago and we did nothing … I'm appalled that he thinks we only need to take 2,000 people. There are 86,000 people who are currently left behind … I have no idea why they — he — claims people don't want to leave Afghanistan. I have a list of 14,000 names right now of people who want to get out of Afghanistan."

— CBS' Fin Gómez (@FinnyGo): "NEW - @POTUS officially authorizes $500M additional funds for Afghan refugee relocation including for SIV applicants."

COMING ATTRACTION — @GStephanopoulos: "I'm sitting down with President Biden on Wednesday for an exclusive interview. What would you ask him?"

WHAT WENT WRONG — "Departure of Private Contractors Was a Turning Point in Afghan Military's Collapse," by Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch: "Military analysts trying to understand the stunning collapse of the Afghan military are increasingly pointing to the departure of U.S. government contractors starting a month ago as one of the key turning points."

MORE — "Afghans who helped the West left in limbo as evacuation turns chaotic," WaPo … "NYT, WSJ and WaPo newsrooms ask Biden for support for journalists in statement "U.S. Veterans View Afghan Collapse With Anguish, Rage and Relief," NYT

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

BIDEN'S TUESDAY — The president is at Camp David, where he'll receive the President's Daily Brief in the morning.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 1:30 p.m. with national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN.

THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.

 

INTRODUCING OTTAWA PLAYBOOK : Join the growing community of Politicos — from lawmakers and leaders to pollsters, staffers, strategists and lobbyists — working to shape Canada's future. Every day, our reporting team pulls back the curtain to shed light on what's really driving the agenda on Parliament Hill, the true players who are shaping politics and policy across Canada, and the impact it all has on the world. Don't miss out on your daily look inside Canadian politics and power. Subscribe to Ottawa Playbook today.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

President Joe Biden is pictured saluting a troop and vice versa. | AP Photo

PHOTO OF THE DAY: President Joe Biden returns a salute as he walks to board Marine One at Fort Lesley J. McNair on Monday, Aug. 16 en route to Camp David after addressing the nation from the White House about Afghanistan. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

PANDEMIC

MAJOR NEWS — "U.S. to Advise Boosters for Most Americans 8 Months After Vaccination," by NYT's Sharon LaFraniere: "The Biden administration has decided that most Americans should get a coronavirus booster shot eight months after they completed their initial vaccination, and could begin offering the extra shots as early as mid-September … Officials are planning to announce the administration's decision as early as this week. …

"The first boosters are likely to go to nursing home residents and health care workers, followed by other older people … Among other worrisome signals, Biden administration officials are particularly concerned about data from Israel suggesting that the Pfizer-BioNTech's protection against severe disease has fallen significantly for elderly people who were vaccinated in January or February."

— WaPo's @emilyrauhala: "Two thoughts: (1) Almost certainly horrible news for people outside of US, most of whom are still scrambling for 1st dose (2) Considering admin's previous statements on this issue and (+timing of news) hope WH will quickly share data behind this turnaround."

FEELING DELTA'S WRATH — "Texas requests five mortuary trailers in anticipation of Covid deaths," by NBC's Jonathan Allen and Laura Strickler: "With Covid-19 surging across the state, Texas has requested five mortuary trailers from the federal government in anticipation of an influx of dead bodies.

"The mortuary trailers from FEMA will be stationed in San Antonio and sent around the state at the request of local officials. Department of State Health Services spokesperson DOUG LOVEDAY said the trailers were requested Aug. 4 after officials reviewed data about increasing deaths as a third wave of the coronavirus struck the state."

"Georgia to boost hospital funding to fight new coronavirus surge," by Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein: "Facing intense pressure to combat a surge in new coronavirus cases, Gov. BRIAN KEMP announced steps Monday to expand capacity at regional hospitals, increase health care staffing and shutter state offices on Sept. 3 to encourage public employees to get vaccinated.

"The Republican said he will create an impromptu state holiday on the Friday before Labor Day weekend in hopes of spurring state staffers to schedule their shots during their time off. … He also said the state will spend $125 million financing 1,500 additional hospital staffers, bringing the total number of state-supported health care workers to 2,800. And officials are readying 450 beds in nine regional hospitals for coronavirus patients."

"Louisiana's health care system nearing 'major failure' under COVID surge, says Gov. John Bel Edwards," by Baton Rouge Advocate's Blake Paterson.

CURIOUSER AND CURIOUSER … "Probe finds evidence fired Tennessee vaccine official bought dog muzzle sent to her," by Axios' Nate Rau and Adam Tamburin: "A Tennessee investigation found evidence that the state's fired vaccine chief, MICHELLE FISCUS, purchased a dog muzzle that she previously claimed someone had mailed in an attempt to intimidate her. Fiscus, who denied sending herself the muzzle in a Monday tweet, has characterized her firing as a political move driven by Republican state officials after she shared a memo citing state law about whether adolescents can seek medical care, including a COVID vaccine, without their parents' permission."

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

HAITI EARTHQUAKE IMPACT — "Haiti quake death toll rises to 1,419, injured now at 6,000," by AP's Mark Stevenson and Evens Sanon: "The quake, centered about [80 miles] west of the capital of Port-au-Prince, nearly razed some towns and triggered landslides that hampered rescue efforts in a country that is the poorest in the Western Hemisphere. Haiti already was struggling with the coronavirus pandemic, gang violence, worsening poverty and the political uncertainty following the July 7 assassination of President JOVENEL MOÏSE when the earthquake sent residents rushing to the streets.

"And the devastation could soon worsen with the coming of Tropical Depression Grace, predicted to reach Haiti on Monday night with strong winds, heavy rain, mudslides and flash flooding. Rainfall could reach 15 inches in some areas, the agency said."

"U.S. sends aid to Haiti after quake but much more needed," by Jonathan Custodio: "USAID has rushed in a search and rescue team from Fairfax, Va., helicopters and more than 50,000 pounds of equipment. And an assessment team is on the ground to determine what more the U.S. should do after Saturday's quake, said SARAH CHARLES, a spokesperson at USAID.

"Members of Congress are also keeping a close eye on the situation on the ground in Haiti, said Rep. FREDERICA WILSON, who represents the Little Haiti area in Miami. The Congressional Haitian Staff Association is working with the House Appropriations Committee and the Haitian Consulate General's office in Miami to assess how much funding should be directed to disaster response efforts in the southern part of the country, which has suffered the most damage, Wilson said."

ECHOES OF 2017? — A new website called StoptheTravelBan.com? No, it's not a flashback to Trump's move to prevent people from mostly Muslim-majority countries from entering the U.S. It's actually about the travel ban now overseen by Biden — the pandemic one, which has prevented many Europeans from visiting the U.S. for well over a year now. A group of affected families and couples launched the site Monday to tell their stories as part of an effort to pressure the Biden administration to let them reunite.

 

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TRUMP CARDS

WHAT STEVE BANNON IS(N'T) UP TO — "Mystery shrouds nonprofit linked to wealthy Chinese exile: Steve Bannon leaves, records kept secret," by CNBC's Brian Schwartz: "The mystery surrounding a nonprofit group tied to wealthy Chinese exile GUO WENGUI, reportedly the key figure in a network accused of spreading disinformation about Covid vaccines and elections, has grown over the past year."

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

PLEADING GUILTY — "Man Pleads Guilty to Threatening to Kill Newly Elected U.S. Senator," by NYT's Eduardo Medina: "The man, EDUARD FLOREA, 41, of Queens, pleaded guilty to posting violent threats against [RAPHAEL] WARNOCK, who had just won a runoff election in Georgia for the Senate and was later sworn in on Jan. 20. 'Warnock is going to have a hard time casting votes for communist policies when he's swinging with the fish,' Mr. Florea posted online on Jan. 5, using an expletive before fish."

BRINGING A NEW RALLY TO THE CAPITOL — "A Short-Lived Trump Campaign Staffer Is Now At The Head Of The Far Right's Jan. 6 Counternarrative," by BuzzFeed's Sarah Mimms: " MATT BRAYNARD has been showing up throughout the far right's push against the 2020 election. Now he says he's raising big money and preparing for a new rally in Washington."

MEDIAWATCH

CHRIS CUOMO SPEAKS — "CNN's Chris Cuomo Addresses His Brother, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo: 'I Did Urge Him to Resign, When The Time Came,'" by The Hollywood Reporter's Alex Weprin

END OF AN ERA — "CBS Sells Black Rock Headquarters Building in NYC for $760 Million," by The Wrap's Thom Geier: "The network, which has occupied the 38-story, 491-foot-tall building since it opened in 1964, plans to lease back its space on a short-term basis. The transaction is expected to close before the end of the year. … [Buyer] Harbor Group plans a significant capital program to pursue a long-term leasing plan, with updates to the lobby, cafeteria and other tenant amenities."

 

SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

STAFFING UP — "Lt. Gov. Kate Marshall to resign, accept White House post," by the Nevada Independent's Jackie Valley and Tabitha Mueller

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Enxhi Myslymi is now senior director of executive and corporate comms at Morning Consult. She most recently was director of media relations at the Milken Institute.

TRANSITIONS — Aaron Groce is now senior legislative assistant for Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.). He previously was legislative assistant for Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.). … Kevin Pérez-Allen is now VP for issue advocacy at BerlinRosen. He is a National Security Leaders for Biden and NALEO alum. … Scott Tittle will be managing director and head of government relations and external affairs at VIUM Capital. He previously was executive director of the National Center for Assisted Living. …

… Hilary Ranieri will be director of government affairs for national security at Planet Labs Federal. She previously was deputy chief of staff for Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.) and senior adviser for the Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress. … McGuireWoods Consulting is adding Jessica Woodie as a VP for digital (previously at the Republican National Convention), Kate Zaykowski as VP for comms (previously at the Texas Railroad Commission) and Ellie Barmish as a grassroots and digital specialist.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. David Price (D-N.C.), Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) and Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) … Louisa Terrell of the White House … Jon Lovett of Crooked Media … former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), now of the American Action Network and Hogan Lovells … Yahoo's Brittany ShepherdRon Bonjean of Rokk Solutions … Sonali DohaleJamie Smith of WestExec Advisors … Jamie Gillespie of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's office … Savannah Holsten of LMI … Carl Sceusa of Revv … Daniel PenchinaSabrina Schaeffer of the White House Writers Group … Mike Buczkiewicz of "Morning Joe" … David KusnetCaroline Boothe of Liz Cheney world … Philip de Vellis of Beacon Media … HuffPost's Elise Foley … Fox News' Will Ricciardella Jessica GailMichael Bekesha Tyler NickersonNick HawatmehAndrea ChristiansonSam HaassKatie McCarthy of Booz Allen Hamilton … Robyn GarnettDiane ShustCarlee GriffethAlyson ChadwickKensey Johnson Alexis Williams Matt Mittenthal of BuzzFeed comms … Dave McCormick of Bridgewater Associates

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.

 

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