Axios Sneak Peek: Scoop — Marco Rubio's next challenger ... Inside the GOP's infrastructure strategy

Plus: Lobbyists fill void after corporations cut off GOP cash | Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Facebook   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Kadia Goba ·May 11, 2021 Welcome back to Sneak. Let's set up the next couple days and weeks. ⚡ Situational awareness: Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is set to preside over the meeting tomorrow that will begin the process to remove her from the House GOP leadership. Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) is expected to make the motion to oust her, Axios' Alayna Treene reports. Today's newsletter — edited by Glen Johnson — is 856 words, a 3-minute read.     1 big thing: Scoop — Stephanie Murphy announcing challenge to Marco Rubio Rep. Stephanie Murphy. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call   Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy is planning to announce a campaign for the U.S. Senate in Florida against Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in early June, people familiar with the matter tell Axios' Hans Nichols and Kadia Goba. Why it matters: Murphy is a proven fundraiser. Jumping in now would give her an early start to build her case for the Democratic nomination and potentially force Rubio and allied GOP groups to spend heavily to retain a seat in a state that's trending Republican. President Trump won Florida by more than 3 percentage points in 2020, up from a narrow one-point margin in 2016. He did so, in part, by accusing Democrats of being soft on socialism. Murphy, who fled Communist Vietnam as a child, calls herself a "proud capitalist" and has warned Democrats about embracing socialism. She knocked off a longtime GOP House incumbent in 2016 at age 38. Murphy has been on a "listening tour" across the state as she explains her life journey. "Rep. Murphy has not made a decision on whether to run for the U.S. Senate," said Lauren Calmet, a campaign spokesperson. Between the lines: With Murphy working to appeal to Florida voters statewide, she may be less inclined to support President Biden's proposed tax increases on corporations and capital gains — making House passage more difficult. Biden won her Orlando-area district by about 10 points in 2020, and while the lines may be redrawn this year through congressional redistricting, the general area leans Democratic. The bottom line: In 2022, Florida may be less of a battleground and more of a proving ground for Democratic strategies about how to win Trump supporters. Keep reading.     2. Inside the GOP's infrastructure strategy Sen. Roger Wicker. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images   Top Republican senators are hoping the White House will make some sort of counteroffer to their infrastructure proposal when they meet with Biden on Thursday, lawmakers and their aides tell Hans and Axios' Alayna Treene. Why it matters: This is a sign of how serious the negotiations are, they say. In advance of the meeting, some of the senators are already publicly signaling the areas in which they have flexibility. One key compromise was stating they'd be willing to spend up to $800 billion — a big jump from their initial $568 billion offer. $800 billion is the "absolute upper limit" of what Republicans will accept, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), a top GOP negotiator on infrastructure, said Tuesday. Their strategy, the sources say, is to set expectations both for their GOP colleagues and the White House, so that when they sit with Biden, they can jump into plotting the significant areas of overlap — such as expanding roads, bridges and highways — that could shape a deal. Attendees for Thursday's meeting include Wicker and Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). "We plan to have a substantive meeting, that's what the president's planning, too. It's not just 'Hi, how you doing?' type stuff," said Capito, the top Republican on the Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee. Yes, but: The biggest sticking point — how to pay for the package — has not been discussed in earnest, Capito and Wicker said. It's unclear whether senators will even broach the subject until they get closer to an agreement about the basics of the bill, they added. Keep reading.     3. By the numbers: Senate seats to watch in 2022 Data: Axios Research, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios While Republicans are giddy about their chances for regaining the House next year, GOP prospects for taking the Senate remain more uncertain, data reviewed by Alayna suggests. By the numbers: At least five Republican senators are retiring after the midterms, and four of their seats are in battleground states. That makes a simple Republican-for-Republican election exchange all the more difficult. All told, 20 Republican seats are among the one-third of the Senate up for reelection. Meanwhile, none of the 14 Democratic senators up for reelection have announced retirement plans. Four of their seats — in Georgia, New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada — are being targeted by the GOP. How it works: Axios has used a headshot to chart every candidate whose state was decided in the 2020 presidential election by 15 points or less.     A message from Facebook The internet has changed a lot since 1996 - internet regulations should too     It's been 25 years since comprehensive internet regulations passed. See why we support updated regulations on key issues, including: Protecting people's privacy Enabling safe and easy data portability between platforms Preventing election interference Reforming Section 230     4. Lobbyists fill void after corporations cut off GOP cash Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios   Lobbyists keep donating to members of Congress even after companies employing them cut off cash to protest the Capitol insurrection and 2020 election challenge, data reviewed by Axios' Lachlan Markay show. Why it matters: While the companies have gotten a PR boost for their good-governance statements, the policy advocates they employ have maintained relationships on their behalf and can still advance their goals on the Hill with the very members those companies disavowed. The big picture: Data provided by the Center for Responsive Politics shows that 124 lobbyists for companies that cut off objector donations after Jan. 6 made nearly 300 contributions — totaling nearly $300,000 — to those same 147 members. Those lobbyists represented more than 100 companies that either swore off donations to election objectors after the attempted insurrection or paused corporate PAC contributions altogether. They range from prominent D.C. influence brokers who work with dozens of clients to in-house lobbyists employed by the companies themselves. Some first-quarter lobbying and fundraising data are still being processed, and the numbers likely understate total contributions substantially. Top recipients included Reps. Tom Rice and Jeff Duncan of South Carolina, Chris Stewart of Utah and Jodey Arrington and Ronny Jackson of Texas. Of note: There's no indication the companies had any say in — or even knowledge of — these donations. Many employ dozens of lobbyists who give to members of Congress of both parties. Keep reading.     5. Pics du jour Photos: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images   An aide uses flag spreaders to create the backdrop before newly elected Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.) holds a ceremonial swearing-in for photographers.     A message from Facebook Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations     2021 is the 25th anniversary of the Telecommunications Act of 1996, the last major update to internet regulation. It's time for an update to set clear rules for addressing today's toughest challenges. See how we're taking action on key issues and why we support updated internet regulations.   🐪 Thanks for reading Sneak! We hope you have a great Hump Day.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: