Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Say it ain’t so, Amtrak Joe

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POLITICO Nightly logo

By Michael Grunwald

Presented by

With help from Joanne Kenen

TWITTER TO ARCHIVES: NO @REALDONALDTRUMP FOR YOU — Twitter will not allow the National Archives to make former President Donald Trump's past tweets from his @realDonaldTrump account available on the social media platform, the company told POLITICO today, in the latest display of Silicon Valley's power over communications channels used by the U.S. government. Read Quint Forgey's full report.

TRAINWRECK — Amtrak's most prominent passenger is now the most powerful man on earth, and he just unveiled a massive infrastructure plan with a whopping $80 billion for rail. No wonder Amtrak just unveiled a huge expansion plan that would serve 160 new cities.

Map of proposed Amtrak train routes in the U.S.

Amtrak

But in the words of the president known as Amtrak Joe, the commuter-in-chief whose name graces the Joseph R. Biden Jr. Railroad Station in Wilmington: C'mon, man.

With all the chronic problems facing Amtrak's existing network of slow and sporadic trains that struggle to attract riders and revenues, why should it be a national priority to extend the network to sleepy communities like Christianburg, Va. (population 22,163) or Rockland, Me. (population 7,178)? Is North Carolina really clamoring for service from Asheville to Salisbury? Is there any reason for Amtrak executives to propose a new route from New York City to President Biden's beloved birthplace of Scranton, Pa., other than the obvious reason?

Politics is the reason Amtrak already operates in 46 of the lower 48 states, even though few of them have the population densities that make inter-city rail work so well in much of Asia and Europe. Scattering trains across the country helps bring lawmakers on board, the infrastructure equivalent of the Pentagon distributing contracts for a single jet to hundreds of congressional districts. Amtrak's new 2035 Vision reveals a desire to keep spreading rail money around like peanut butter — to plausible destinations like Las Vegas and Phoenix but also to head-scratching destinations like Allentown and Cheyenne, which would make Wyoming the 47th state with a station.

"There's always a political tax on the geography of infrastructure investment," says Adie Tomer, an infrastructure expert at the Brookings Institution. "You just don't want the tax to get too big."

So before Amtrak fantasizes about new lines to Pueblo, Colo., and Eau Claire, Wis., it ought to focus on upgrading its most important and successful line, the Northeast Corridor between Boston and Washington, D.C.

It's the only Amtrak route that runs an operating profit. It's the only Amtrak route that runs primarily on tracks that Amtrak owns. And it includes four of Amtrak's five busiest stations as well as the one named for the president. With top speeds of 150 miles per hour, it's as close as Amtrak gets to high-speed rail. Its average speeds are less than 90 miles per hour, but if you ignore the frequent delays, spotty Wi-Fi and lousy food, it at least vaguely resembles the train service you might find in Germany or Japan.

The Northeast Corridor desperately needs new investment to repair the bottlenecks that keep it so far below its top speeds, especially its decrepit tunnels under the Hudson River. Amtrak already shuttles three times as many passengers between Washington and New York as the airlines do. Upgrading its aging infrastructure could reduce trip times and improve reliability enough to draw even more travelers out of planes or cars.

Amtrak seems to recognize the urgency of this problem, noting in its vision statement that the Northeast Corridor has "dozens of bridges, stations and tunnels … in need of immediate replacement or rehabilitation." But by some estimates, just bringing the Northeast Corridor up to a state of good repair could vacuum up more than half the American Jobs Plan's $80 billion rail budget. Upgrading the corridor to approach true high-speed rail could vacuum up all of it.

Then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden boards a campaign train after a stop at Pittsburgh Union Station on Sept. 30, 2020, in Pittsburgh.

Then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden boards a campaign train after a stop at Pittsburgh Union Station on Sept. 30, 2020, in Pittsburgh. | Getty Images

Amtrak's plan was not vetted by the White House; in fact, POLITICO Pro's Tanya Snyder reported today that the Biden Administration does hope to spend half its rail money upgrading the Northeast Corridor, reserving most of the rest for Amtrak lines and other "intercity passenger rail."

The administration has suggested a sensible fix-it-first approach to the nation's roads and bridges, proposing to finance long-overdue repairs rather than build new roads to nowhere. Transportation experts believe that approach makes even more sense for rail. Americans rarely even contemplate taking a long-distance train unless it's faster than driving and departs frequently enough that it doesn't require much trip planning. And while experts do see potential for a few new high-speed routes between big cities — like Los Angeles to Las Vegas, or Houston to Dallas — those wouldn't necessarily need to involve Amtrak.

Amtrak seems to want to have it all — long-overdue repairs, new high-speed lines and also new slow-speed trains to Rockford, Ill., and Reading, Pa. Jeff Davis, a senior fellow at the Eno Center for Transportation think tank, was surprised to see the 2035 Vision included a Minneapolis-Duluth line that former Minnesota congressman Jim Oberstar used to push when he chaired the House Transportation Committee.

"You know, Mr. Oberstar passed away — and Duluth is a long way off," Davis said.

The politics of Amtrak is a lot like the politics of the U.S. Postal Service. Politicians attack both as money pits, but they also insist on propping up little-used money-losing train routes and post offices in their states. Congress will ultimately decide the details of the American Jobs Act, and some Democrats might like Amtrak's plan for dubious new lines in swing states like Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Yes, but as a certain passenger who logged more than 2 million miles on the Northeast Corridor likes to say: "Show me your budget, and I'll tell you what you value."

The value of Amtrak isn't to extend passenger rail everywhere. It's to provide efficient and convenient passenger rail in some places that improves American mobility while reducing carbon emissions from cars and planes.

Amtrak had a record 32 million riders in 2019, but that crashed to 17 million in 2020 because of the pandemic. Spending money to upgrade the lines Americans actually use could help reverse that trend. Spending money to build a new line from Oklahoma City to Newton, Kan., would be typical Washington malarkey.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at mgrunwald@politico.com and rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @mikegrunwald and @renurayasam.

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First In Nightly

FOOD FIGHTSeven months into the school year, millions of low-income families are still waiting for billions of dollars in federal food aid that was supposed to compensate them for school meals that were missed during remote learning, Helena Bottemiller Evich writes.

The Biden administration recently accelerated the rollout, but the program remains mired in bureaucracy. Nearly half of states still haven't sent any of the money out, even as child hunger rates remain near record highs.

Congress first created the $2 billion-a-month program, called Pandemic-EBT, or P-EBT, last spring during the early days of the pandemic when schools were shuttered to give households a debit card to buy groceries. Lawmakers extended it for the whole school year in September as families continued to grapple with school disruption.

The slow rollout shows the pitfalls of standing up new bureaucratic channels during an emergency. It also could be exacerbating alarmingly high rates of child hunger. One in six households with children is reporting they do not have enough to eat, a rate much higher than even in the depths of the Great Recession. Researchers found the first round of the aid that went out last year alleviated hunger for millions of children.

It's a sharp contrast to other forms of federal aid that have made their way to consumers and businesses rapidly during the crisis. Last year, the federal government was able to begin the Paycheck Protection Program and get hundreds of billions in loans out to businesses in a matter of weeks. Stimulus checks, which can be directly deposited into accounts, have also gone out quickly to millions.

 

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What'd I Miss?

— Report: Accuser says Cuomo groomed her, urged her to stay silent: The female staff member who alleges New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo groped her inside the governor's mansion in November told the Albany Times Union that he had groomed her over time and later urged her to stay silent about their interactions.

— Trump claims Gaetz 'never asked me for a pardon': In a two-sentence statement today , Trump stressed that Gaetz "has totally denied the accusations against him." Trump's brief statement broke silence from Trump and his allies on the allegations against Gaetz, one of the former president's strongest supporters in Congress.

— Biden to unveil long-awaited executive actions on guns: The announcement comes nearly three months into Biden's term in office, a delay that had frustrated activists who wanted the president to fulfill a campaign pledge to take action on gun violence on his first day in office. That frustration grew after a slate of mass shootings in Colorado, Georgia and California.

 

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From the Health Desk

VACCINATION AND LONG COVID You've probably heard, and in fact Nightly's Myah Ward has told you , about the intriguing signs that Covid vaccines are relieving symptoms in some, though not all, long Covid sufferers. Whether that's a permanent fix, or just a respite, and why it helps some but not others isn't yet clear.

But will vaccination help prevent new cases of long Covid? POLITICO's health care editor at large Joanne Kenen began asking scientists about that after she heard some older people on a Zoom call at risk because of their age say they didn't see any point to getting the vaccine because they could still get a mild or asymptomatic case of Covid and then get the chronic, long form. (Joanne bit her tongue, but let's get back on task.)

Not many people are studying this aspect of vaccination apparently — or the data is still so thin at this early stage that they weren't willing to be quoted yet. The CDC findings that the Pfizer and Moderna shots were 90 percent effective in preventing infection, including mild or asymptomatic infection, are good news. People who don't get infected with the virus, even asymptomatically, won't get long Covid. But we still have a lot to learn. "We just don't know," is the response Joanne kept hearing.

Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale, is the exception. Her research is preliminary, but she is fairly optimistic that vaccinations will lessen the risk. Iwasaki outlined three possible mechanisms that might be causing long Covid in a Medium post. One is "a persistent viral reservoir" in the patient's tissue. Two is a "viral ghost," fragments of the virus's genetic material or proteins that stick around after the virus is cleared but can still stimulate the immune system. Three is an autoimmune response.

"I suspect that people with long Covid have varying degrees of all three mechanisms taking place," Iwasaki wrote. "Thus, long Covid consists of multiple types of diseases."

Vaccination, she told Joanne later in an email, should "significantly reduce the risk of getting long Covid."

"The vaccine will induce robust antibodies and T cell responses to the virus," Iwasaki said. "Even if you were to then get infected, the symptoms will be mild and short. To establish long covid, as I discussed in that piece, there needs to be either establishment of viral reservoir, or autoimmunity. Preexisting antibodies and T cells will quickly control the virus, preventing persistent viral reservoir. Preexisting antibodies and T cells will quickly control the virus, preventing persistent viral reservoir. Preexisting immunity will also prevent significant replication and spread of the virus, which is likely required to induce autoimmune responses."

In short — we don't know yet. But there's good reason to hope.

Ask The Audience

Nightly asks you: As people begin to plan travel for the spring and summer, tell us what podcasts we should listen to when we finally hit the road? Use the form to give us your answer, and we'll use select responses in Friday's edition.

The Global Fight

BREXIT, BUT FOR ASTRAZENECAThe perplexing headlines regarding the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine continued today in Europe, where the EU and U.K. made dueling announcements about the vaccine's use.

EU: The European Medicines Agency today backed continued use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in all adults, in a statement confirming a "possible link" to "very rare" cases of blood clotting. The statement, following a fresh review by the regulator's safety committee, said the overall benefits of the vaccine in protecting against the coronavirus still outweigh the risks. The vaccine remains approved in the EU for anyone over the age of 18.

— U.K.: The U.K. concluded that adults under 30 should be offered an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, after reviewing cases of rare blood clots. Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England described the move as "a course correction" for the U.K. vaccination program, meaning that younger adults will be offered alternative vaccines instead.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: It actually is infrastructure week ... and it will be for a while. What is the administration's plan to get its top legislative priority through Congress? Add Transition Playbook to your daily reads for details you won't find anywhere else about the state of play of the administration's top priorities and biggest challenges. Track the people, policies and power centers of the Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
Nightly Number

$85 million

The amount of money Trump's political action committee, Save America PAC, currently has in the bank, according to a Trump adviser. The former president is reigniting his small-dollar fundraising operation for the first time since leaving the White House, part of his ramp-up to the 2022 midterm elections and a potential 2024 comeback bid.

Parting Words

A GIULIANI IN ALBANY? Andrew Giuliani, the son of Trump lawyer and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, said in an interview today that he is "seriously considering" a run for governor in 2022 and spoke with Trump earlier this week about his political ambitions, Gabby Orr and Meridith McGraw write.

"I did speak with President Trump on Monday and it was a great conversation," Giuliani said. "We talked about New York politics and went through the numbers on this and I explained to him where I think I would be able to make inroads that no other potential candidate would be able to."

A blessing from Trump would go a long way for any Republican candidate running in a GOP primary. That may be particularly true in New York, where the former president built his real estate empire and made his name before decamping to Florida in his post-presidency.

But for Giuliani, a former White House official and frequent golf partner of the 45th president, getting Trump's backing is no slam dunk. The former president is said to be partial to Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), a longtime GOP congressman and friend of the Trump family, who has been floated as a possible candidate himself.

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