Monday, March 22, 2021

📈 Daily analysts mail subscription

logo
The best broker in Asia

www.instaforex.com

Daily analysts mail subscription

GBP/USD. March 22. COT report. The UK has vaccinated more than half of the adult population.
2021-03-22

GBP/USD – 1H.

analytics60583633c0e46.jpg

According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.3820), while on the chart, Friday's fall looks very impressive. However, on Friday, the information background was zero, and if you look at the graphic picture as a whole, it becomes clear that there was a movement in the side corridor for the Briton. The chart clearly shows that the quotes regularly perform rebounds from the levels of 38.2% and 61.8% and cannot secure above or below the side corridor. Thus, the fall of the British dollar on Friday could have nothing to do with the information background at all. If so, then today the picture will not change, since the information background will be almost zero. Thus, the rebound of quotes from the level of 61.8% (1.3820) allows traders to count on growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3900). And fixing the pair's rate above the level of 1.3900 will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3980). At the same time, vaccination of the population continues at a high rate in the UK. On Friday, more than 700,000 people were vaccinated, which is an absolute record for the country. According to medical estimates, more than half of the adult population of the country has received at least one dose of the vaccine. Thus, given the high rate of vaccination of the population, the British economy may soon accelerate its recovery from the crisis and two lockdowns this winter. However, the economic data speak in favor of the weak state of the economy. Progress, if it will be noticeable, will not be earlier than the fall of 2021.

GBP/USD – 4H.

analytics6058363d7d53d.jpg

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 161.8% (1.3979) and the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling, which at the moment ended near the level of 1.3850. As I said above, it looks like the pair is currently trading inside a sideways corridor with a lower border near the 1.3820 level. Thus, it is the closing below the level of 1.3820 that will allow traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the level of 127.2% (1.3701).

GBP/USD – Daily.

analytics605836446795e.jpg

On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to be above the ascending trend line. In the long term, the "bullish" mood of traders is still preserved. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084) will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

analytics6058364c1e010.jpg

On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.

Overview of fundamentals:

There were no major news or events in the UK or America on Friday. The information background was zero on this day.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On Monday, the calendars of economic events in the United States and Britain are again empty, so the information background will be absent today.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

analytics6058365cdfb88.jpg

The latest COT report of March 16 on the British pound was just as discouraging as on the euro. The "Non-commercial" category of traders behaved much more modestly and closed only 6.2 thousand long contracts. But the category of "Commercial" traders got rid of 23 thousand long contracts and 27 thousand short contracts. Thus, in total, the British lost approximately 30-33 thousand contracts of both types. Such a sharp drop in activity, by the way, did not affect the chart of the pair in any way. I can only conclude that the "bullish" mood of traders has weakened even more recently. However, the number of purchases in the hands of speculators is still twice as large as the number of sales.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

I recommend buying the British dollar today in case of a rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3820 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3900. It was recommended to sell the pound if a close at 1.3900 is made with a target of 1.3820. Now it is recommended to sell at the close under 1.3820 with a target of 1.3721.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

EUR/USD. March 22. COT report. The EU will no longer share vaccines.
2021-03-22

EUR/USD – 1H.

analytics60583684d7389.jpg

During the past day, the EUR/USD pair continued the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1873) and worked it twice: on Friday and tonight. Both times, there was a rebound from this level, which allows traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1952). Closing the pair's rate below the level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.1772). On Friday, the information background for the pair was quite weak. Traders were still under the impression of the meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, however, their mood after these events did not change dramatically. Over the past two weeks, the pair's quotes have generally been trading in a fairly narrow sideways corridor. The US dollar was not helped by information about a new increase in the yield of US treasuries, which are believed to cause the strengthening of the US currency. But if they do, it is not continuous and not strong. Meanwhile, the vaccination crisis continues in the European Union. As I said earlier, there are big problems with supplies in the European Union and, accordingly, there is a shortage of vaccines and low vaccination rates, for which the EU leadership is strongly criticized. At the same time, the member states of the European Union. In such a situation, the European Commission is forced to refuse to help developing countries until it completely solves the problems with the supply of the vaccine against the "coronavirus" for itself. This was stated by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. In her opinion, the countries of the European Union have to solve many problems to receive a vaccine, which is in short supply. As for assistance to developing countries, the European Union has already invested about 2.2 billion euros in this initiative. "I cannot explain to European citizens why we export the vaccine to countries that produce the vaccine themselves and do not send us anything in return," von der Leyen said.

EUR/USD – 4H.

analytics6058368a488e2.jpg

On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and continue a new process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.1836, near which they stopped last time. However, in general, the entire movement of the pair already resembles the movement in the side corridor between the levels of 1.1836 and 1.1988. At least it is in this price range that the pair has been since March 5, that is, for more than two weeks.

EUR/USD – Daily.

analytics6058369147448.jpg

On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor, so the mood on the traffic was "bearish". The descending trend line confirms this. Fixing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 261.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1566).

EUR/USD – Weekly.

analytics605836982dc5c.jpg

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.

Overview of fundamentals:

On March 19, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States were empty, so the information background was extremely weak or absent.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

On March 22, the calendars of economic events in the United States and the European Union are again empty. Thus, the influence of the information background today will also be absent.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

analytics605836a09e921.jpg

Last Friday, another COT report was released, and this time it turned out to be overly aggressive. For the third week in a row, the "Non-commercial" category of traders gets rid of long contracts on the euro currency. This time, their number has decreased by almost 12 thousand. However, this time, the "Commercial" category of traders also got rid of 53 thousand long contracts and 75 thousand short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts decreased by 73.5 thousand, and short contracts – by 84 thousand. It is not clear what caused such a huge change in the mood of speculators and commercial traders, but the data is exactly that. The chances of ending the upward trend for the euro currency are growing.

EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

It was recommended to sell the pair at the closing of quotes under the level of 100.0% (1.1952) with a target of 1.1873 on the hourly chart. This level is worked out. Now it is recommended to sell with the targets of 1.1836 and 1.1772 if a close is made under 1.1873. I recommend buying the pair when rebounding from the levels of 1.1873 or 1.1836 with a target of 1.1952.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 22. COT reports. Bears aim to surpass support at 1.1877 and pull down the euro even further
2021-03-22

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Last Friday, there was only one signal to enter the market. Let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and break down the trade. Since important fundamental reports were not available in the morning, the bulls tried to rise above resistance at 1.1939, before the test of which exactly 1 point was not enough. I was ready to open short positions when a false breakout was formed there. Therefore, I was forced to miss the entire downward movement, which was then observed until the support area of 1.1884. But one could look for an entry into long positions from support at 1.1884. A false breakout at this level, which occurred during the US session, led to forming a buy signal. The reverse test of the 1.1884 level created an excellent entry point, which led to an upward correction by 25 points.

analytics605816c12c3dc.jpg

There are no important fundamental statistics today, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak this afternoon. It is unlikely that his statements will somehow affect the market, which, judging by the bearish gap, is heading back to the area of the 18th figure. Bulls will have to protect the important support level of 1.1877, which coincides with last Friday's low. It is also the lower border of the current horizontal channel. Forming a false breakout there will result in creating a signal to open long positions in hopes that the euro will recover to the resistance area of 1.1933, where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the sellers. A breakthrough and consolidation above 1.1933 (the middle of the horizontal channel) will open a direct road to the high of 1.1987, where I recommend taking profits. If bulls are not active in the support area at 1.1877, and most likely the bearish trend will continue, then I recommend holding back from long positions for a rebound at once, then a larger low of 1.1835, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. Being able to test this level will completely cancel out all the bulls' plans for the euro's rapid growth.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The bears need to think of a way to fall below support at 1.1877. A breakout and consolidation below this level will quickly push EUR/USD to the 1.1835 low, where I recommend taking profits. The next larger target will be the low of 1.1793, which is quite possible for the pair to reach by the middle of the week. Everything will depend on Powell's statements today and the yield of US bonds, which at the end of last week rose to new annual highs. If EUR/USD grows in the first half of the day, then it would be best to wait for a false breakout to form at the 1.1933 level, and only then should you open short positions. Moving averages also pass there. If the bears are not that active near resistance at 1.1933, and the bulls manage to achieve a breakthrough and rise above this level, then it would be best to open short positions immediately on the rebound from the next large resistance at 1.1987, counting on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next major high is clearly visible in the 1.2047 area.

analytics605816c79fe86.jpg

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 9 clearly shows a sharp decline in long positions and a very large increase in short positions, which indicates a continued shift in the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the euro's decline, which we have seen since the end of February. Bond yields in many developed countries continue to sharply rise, which plays in favor of the dollar, as investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the greenback more attractive. The European Central Bank's recent meeting did not change the market, as the decisions made were not critical and did not affect investor sentiment in any way. It is best not to rush into euro purchases, but to wait for lower prices. The growth in the incidence of coronavirus is another factor of medium-term pressure on the euro. The slow vaccination program for the population is pushing the cancellation of quarantine measures to a later date. We can only expect an improvement in the economic outlook for the eurozone once restrictions are lifted and the service sector is restored, which will return the medium-term trend to strengthening EUR/USD. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 222,655 to 207,588, while short non-commercial positions rose from 96,667 to 105,624. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the fourth consecutive week, from 125,988 to 101,964. The weekly closing price was 1.1812 against 1.2048 a week earlier.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the euro will continue to fall in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1877 area will lead to a larger downward movement for the euro. The breakout of the upper border in the area of 1.1933 will strengthen the euro's growth.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 22. COT reports. Bears approached very important support levels
2021-03-22

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

As the result showed: last Friday was not the best day for trading the British pound. In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level 1.3947 and advised you to make decisions on entering the market. At the beginning, the bulls tried to break through resistance at 1.3947, but then there is a quick return under this level, which leads to forming a false breakout. It was not possible to wait for the pair to sharply fall, afterwards the bulls tried to rise above resistance at 1.3947 again - and they succeeded. In such a scenario, it was necessary to get out of short positions, since the likelihood of a succeeding decline was greatly reduced. However, those who stayed in the market still waited for the target level around 1.3897 to be tested. In the afternoon, I recommended opening short positions after a breakthrough of 1.3897 and a reverse test of this level. However, the chart shows that a breakout has occurred, but no convenient entry point has been formed. The pound immediately fell to the support area of 1.3855 and it created a signal to buy the pound immediately upon a rebound. As a result, an upward correction at the end of the day was around 30 points.

analytics60581a22288e9.jpg

The bears are still in control of the market and the bulls need to try their best in straining the pair from going beyond the wide horizontal channel, as this will lead to a new medium-term bear market. The initial task of the bulls is to protect support at 1.3812, in the area of which the sellers quickly pushed the pair after this morning's Asian gap. Forming a false breakout there creates a signal to open long positions in hopes to restore the upward trend, and the nearest target will be resistance at 1.3859, rising above which will also be the main task. Only a breakout and consolidation above 1.3859 along with being able to test this level from top to bottom can create another signal to buy the pound for the purpose of reaching a high like 1.3905, where I recommend taking profits. Moving averages, playing on the side of sellers, also pass there. In case traders are not active in the support area of 1.3812, then it would be best to postpone long positions until the 1.3745 low has been tested from where you can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 30–35 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The initial task is to settle below support at 1.3812 and go even further, which they tested last Friday. Updating this level from the bottom up will create a good signal to open short positions in order to continue the pair's downward trend so it can reach a low like 1.3745. Updating the 1.3745 level can pull out the pair from the wide horizontal channel, in which it has been since February. The succeeding target is support at 1.3680, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows in the first half of the day, the bears must protect resistance at 1.3859, from where the Asian gap formed today. Forming a false breakout there will create a new entry point for short positions, counting on the continuation of the pair's downward correction. If bears are not active in the resistance area at 1.3859, then it would be best not to rush to sell: you can open short positions immediately on a rebound from the 1.3905 high, counting on a downward correction of 30–35 points within the day. The next major resistance area is seen around 1.3953.

analytics60581a2aa1fd5.jpg

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 9 revealed a reduction in both short and long commercial positions. This time, the closing of long positions became quite strong, which led to a reduction in the positive delta. The main problem for risky assets, which can be attributed to the pound, is still the growth in the yield of US bonds, which provides serious support to the US dollar. However, in the medium term, buyers of the pound will certainly take advantage of this moment to enter the market at more attractive prices. The beginning of quarantine measures in March will continue to provide the main support for the pound, as well as new measures to help the UK population in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Long non-commercial positions declined from 65,138 to 61,271. At the same time, short non-commercials declined from 29,056 to 27,360, indicating a succeeding decline for the pair. As a result, the non-commercial net position fell to 33,911 from 36,082 a week earlier. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.3821 against 1.3928. The observed downward correction in the pound will attract new buyers.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the downward trend for the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3805 area will increase the pressure on the pair. If the pound rises, the upper border of the indicator at 1.3940 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for March 22, 2021
2021-03-22

analytics60583fb5707c2.jpg

GBP/JPY is now close to our corrective target at 150.09 from where we expect a bottom for renewed strength to above the former peak at 152.24. This should complete blue wave v and red wave iii/ and set the stage for another corrective decline to just above 150.09 for the next rally higher.

I the weeks ahead we will see a series of new higher highs followed by temporary corrections that also will see higher lows until GBP/JPY is close to 156.00 where a more substantial top is expected.

R3: 151.44

R2: 151.19

R1: 150.82

Pivot: 150.57

S1: 150.18

S2: 150.08

S3: 149.90

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 150.10 or upon a break above 151.70.

Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 03/22/21
2021-03-22

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market may continue to move down from the level of 1.3873 (the closing of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.3815 – a pullback level of 14.6% (the red dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue working downwards with the target of 1.3693 at the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator (the black dotted line).

analytics6058447520481.jpg

Figure 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

- Indicator Analysis – down

- Fibonacci Levels – down

- Volumes – down

- Candle Analysis – down

- Trend Analysis – down

- Bollinger Bands – down

- Weekly Chart – down

General Conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move down from the level of 1.3873 (the closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3815 – a pullback level of 14.6% (the red dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue working downwards with the target of 1.3693 at the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator (the black dotted line).

Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.3873 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.3815 – a pullback level of 14.6% (the red dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to start working up with a target of 1.3944 – a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line).

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 22, 2021
2021-03-22

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been trading close to the intraday technical support located at the level of 1.1873, so any violation of this level will lead to the test of the swing low seen at 1.1835. The recent rally towards the level of 1.1994 had failed and the bears are in control of the market. Please notice, the weekly time frame chart is still showing the weakness of the bulls as the price traded below the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.1887 already. The next key technical support is located at 1.1800 and 1.1743.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2058

WR2 - 1.2022

WR1 - 1.1948

Weekly Pivot - 1.1911

WS1 - 1.1835

WS2 - 1.1794

WS3 - 1.1716

Trading Recommendations:

Despite the recent correction to 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up the long term trend on EUR/USD pair remains up on monthly time frame chart, however the weekly time frame chart show the counter-trend corrective cycle is in progress. This corrective cycle has not been completed yet, because the key level for bulls is located at 1.1608. As long as the market trades above this level the up trend is valid and all of the down waves should be used to open long positions.

analytics6058473e9e221.jpg

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 22, 2021
2021-03-22

Technical Market Outlook:

The bulls on GBP/USD pair failed to resume the up trend again by bouncing towards the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement located at 1.4001, leaving the Pin Bar candlestick behind. The market has returned back to the consolidation zone located between the levels of 1.4001 - 1.3801. The bulls tried three times already to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement in the past, so any breakout higher will be dynamic and strong with a target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4054 and 1.4060. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.3850. Any violation of this level will directly expose 1.3801 for a breakout.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.4132

WR2 - 1.4065

WR1 - 1.3940

Weekly Pivot - 1.3879

WS1 - 1.3752

WS2 - 1.3684

WS3 - 1.3557

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend despite the fact, that is back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.

analytics6058489428511.jpg

Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for March 22, 2021
2021-03-22

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market from the level of 1.1880 (the opening of the daily candle with a gap today), while moving down, may retest the 76.4% retracement level - 1.1872 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.1836 – the lower fractal (blue dotted line).

analytics60583fef943f8.jpg

Figure 1 (Daily Chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

  • Indicator analysis – down;
  • Fibonacci levels – down;
  • Volumes – down;
  • Candlestick analysis – down;
  • Trend analysis – down;
  • Bollinger bands – down;
  • Weekly chart – down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price from the level of 1.1880 (the opening of the daily candle with a gap today), while moving down, may retest the 76.4% retracement level - 1.1872 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.1836 – the lower fractal (blue dotted line).

Unlikely scenario: the price from the level of 1.1880 (the opening of the daily candle with a gap today), while moving down, may retest the 76.4%, retracement level which is 1.1872 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may start moving up with a target of 1.1954, the historical resistance level (blue dotted line).

Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 22. Europe is at risk of another COVID-19 wave.
2021-03-22

analytics605820c998622.jpg

The world is gradually emerging from the coronavirus. There is great progress both in the United States and Britain, which may be the result of their increasing pace of vaccination. To date, more than 30% of their population have been vaccinated.

But in the EU, the situation remains pretty bad. Until now, incident rates are dangerously high, with France recording more than 30,000 new COVID-19 cases a day. Poland, Turkey and Italy follow.

Going back to vaccinations, the pace is still slow in many countries. But the head of Pfizer is confident that by fall, most major countries will be vaccinated.

analytics605821ccc3c50.jpg

EUR/USD opened the week with a small but noticeable gap down. But in general, the euro has formed a very beautiful and completely horizontal consolidation.

Open short positions when the euro breaks below 1.1870.

Open short positions when the euro breaks above 1.1990.

There is uncertainty in the markets.

The US market may undergo a strong correction within the day.

Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and DXY on March 22, 2021
2021-03-22

Based on the dollar index (DXY) chart, the US dollar was focused on the accumulation process during the previous week, where the variable borders of 91.40/92.00 are clearly seen. The recovery process of the index this month leaves buyers with hope for stronger changes in the value of the US dollar. In order to confirm the theory of DXY, it is necessary to break through the level of 92.50.

What happened in the market in terms of the economic calendar?

Last Friday, Germany's producer prices data was the only data that was published. It recorded growth from 0.9% to 1.9%, against the forecasted 2.0%, but there was no reaction from the market.

As for the UK and the US, there were no significant statistics. Therefore, traders moved on technical analysis.

What happened on the trading chart?

The EUR/USD pair resumed the downward move previously set from the psychological level of 1.2000, eventually updating the local low of March 16. Considering the obtained data on the decline in the euro rate last Friday, sellers had a chance again to prolong the correction course from the high of the mid-term trend, namely from 1.2349 to 1.1835.

The GBP/USD pair reached a local low on March 16, while moving from the area of the psychological level of 1.4000. However, market participants failed to break through it unlike the Euro currency. As a result, a stop and a pullback from the reference level was observed.

analytics60583f6b7aeac.jpg

Trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 22

Today, there will be no important statistics from Europe, the UK and US. In this case, the market will continue moving based on technical analysis and on information flow about the COVID vaccine.

Looking at the EUR/USD pair trading chart, it can be seen that the quote is still at the downward levels from last week, which means that sellers still have a chance to push the euro towards the low of March 9. Based on the scenario of prolonged correction, the main decline can be expected after the price is held under the level of 1.1835.

analytics60583f07d3b69.jpg

As for the GBP/USD pair trading chart, it shows the same price rebound from the level of 1.3805, while the downward interest is still taking place in the market. If the quote is kept below 1.3800, there will be a possible decline towards the level of 1.3750.

We will consider an alternative scenario of the market development if the price does not hold below the 1.3800 mark, rather there will be a cycle of the 1.3850/1.3950 amplitude.

analytics60583f0ebeadd.jpg

Forex forecast 03/22/2021 on Gold, Silver, SP500 and USDX from Sebastian Seliga
2021-03-22

Let's take a look at the technical picture of Gold, Silver, SP500 and USDX at the daily time frame chart.





Author's today's articles:

Grigory Sokolov

Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker

Maxim Magdalinin

In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006.

Torben Melsted

Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets.

Sergey Belyaev

Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis.

Sebastian Seliga

Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu

Mihail Makarov

-

Vladislav Tukhmenev

Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up."


Subscription's options management

Theme's:
Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets
Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda

Edit data of subscription settings

Unsubscribe from the mailing list

Sincerely,
Analysts Service

If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the
InstaForex Toll free numbers right now:


InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. InstaForex Group members include regulated companies in Europe, Russia and British Virgin Islands. This letter may contain personal information for access to your InstaForex trading account, so for the purpose of safety it is recommended to delete this data from the history. If you have received this letter by mistake, please contact InstaForex Customer Relations Department.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Future of AI Decided in 48 Hours...

The next two days hold critical implications for the trajectory of AI. With everything on the line, the stage is set for a defining moment i...