Monday, March 22, 2021

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Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on March 22, 2021
2021-03-22

In today's review of the pound/dollar currency pair, we will again touch on the topic of COVID-19, summarize the results of the trading week that has ended, and try to assess the prospects for GBP/USD in the light of the current five-day period. So, universal vaccination against coronavirus is still the most important component to prevent the further spread of COVID-19. At the same time, as it turns out, of many strains of coronavirus infection, virologists consider the "British strain" to be the most dangerous. It accounts for a total of 60 to 80 percent of all infections. At the same time, the "British strain" is considered the most resistant, and not all types of vaccines can counteract it. As for the vaccination itself, in contrast to the European Union, it takes place at a much faster pace in the UK. According to media reports, about 900,000 Britons have been vaccinated in the United Kingdom over the past 24 hours. Needless to say, the indicator is quite impressive.

Weekly

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If we go back to the results of last week, then, as already noted in today's article on EUR/USD, all major currencies, except for the Japanese yen, showed a downward trend against the US dollar. In particular, the British pound fell by 0.34% at the auction on March 15-19. These losses can not be considered significant and this is visible on the weekly chart. There is an important point that can not be ignored. We are talking about the mark of 1.4000, where a very strong resistance of sellers is concentrated. As you can see, for three weeks in a row, the bulls fought for the pound to go up. This is a significant psychological and technical level, however, they did not manage to implement their plans.

It would seem that, after the appearance of the circled reversal candle, the "British" expects a downward trend, but below 1.3777, the bears did not manage to continue the decline in the pair. So it turns out that the range in which GBP/USD is traded can be designated as 1.4004-1.3777. In the author's personal opinion, only a true exit from this created price corridor can signal the further direction of the British currency in pair with the US dollar. It is characteristic that approximately in the middle of this range, there is a red line of the Ichimoku Tenkan indicator, around which the pair barrages. At the same time, the support at 1.3777 is strengthened by the lower border of the ascending channel, and the no less significant level of 1.3700 is slightly lower, so to demonstrate the seriousness of their intentions, players need to bring the price down from the channel and lower it below the mark of 1.3700. The bulls have their tasks, the main one at the moment is the breakdown of the strong psychological and technical level of 1.4000. If this task is eventually solved, the pair will head to another important and strong resistance of sellers, which is held in the area of 1.4230. These are the prospects for GBP/USD, judging by the weekly timeframe.

Daily

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On the daily chart of the pound/dollar pair, we see that today's trading opened with a small price gap down, after which there are attempts to close the gap. Another detail that is worth paying attention to is the middle line of the ascending channel (dotted), which provides the quote with quite strong support and does not allow the rate to gain a foothold below. However, even going under the middle line can limit the strong support zone of 1.3800-1.3777, where the minimum trading values were shown on March 16 and 3, respectively. As for the resistance, the nearest of them is represented by the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which lies at a significant level of 1.3900. Given the ambiguous technical picture on the two timeframes considered, there are both purchases and sales of the GBP/USD pair. It is worth looking at the nearest sales near the mark of 1.3900, and higher on the approach to the levels of 1.3940, 1.3980, and 1.4000. Purchases of the British currency should be considered from the price support zone of 1.3805-1.3780. You can try to buy from the current prices, but with small goals, near 1.3905. In tomorrow's article, we will look at smaller time intervals, and, if necessary, we will make changes to today's recommendations for GBP/USD.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Dollar soared due to continued rise in US Treasuries. Slow vaccination in the EU seriously affects its economic recovery.
2021-03-22

Euro and pound sagged last Friday when the yield on 10-year US bonds increased again.

But in the afternoon, balance returned in the market because Treasuries retreated after jumping noticeably in the morning. Aside from that, demand for the US dollar remained relatively low due to the lack of important economic data from the United States.

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Today though, EUR / USD is still under the control of the bears because the market opened with a small but noticeable gap downwards. This suggests that a consolidation below 1.1875 will push the price down even lower, perhaps towards 1.1835 and 1.1790. But if the bulls manage to bring the quote back to 1.1935, EUR / USD could climb towards the 20th figure, where a break above could lead to a further increase towards 1.2050 and 1.2110.

On a different note, Reuters revealed that Europeans have become less confident in AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine. This is mainly due to news of complications from its use.

Confidence fell most strongly in France and Germany, followed by Italy and Spain. More specifically, the poll indicated that around 55% of Germans and 61% of French respondents consider AstraZeneca to be unsafe. Meanwhile, 36% of Italians and 38% of Spanish respondents view the drug as risky.

The survey is based on recent rumors that the AstraZeneca vaccine caused blood clots in the brain after its use. But the European Medicines Agency (EMA) said the drug is safe and effective, and was not associated with venous sinus thrombosis.

Europeans don't have many options for vaccine. Therefore, if they abandon AstraZeneca, it would seriously impact the bloc's rate of vaccination, which would accordingly lead to the delay of the lifting of quarantine restrictions. Such would also affect the rate of economic growth this year.

As for the United States, immunization is more advanced, thanks to the recently-approved $ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill. With it, Americans are also given additional checks worth $ 1,400, which helps not only the population, but also the US economy.

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Last week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also addressed the issue on additional financial stimulus. She warned lawmakers about the risks of a slow rollout of the € 750 billion EU recovery fund, and said that the actions of the ECB alone are not enough for an effective economic recovery. Therefore, there is a need for further monetary and fiscal support.

Going back to vaccinations, the European Union is reported to be planning a ban on exports of COVID-19 vaccines. Apparently, they are tired of asking for more supply, so they decided to take action. A senior official said the European Commission will discuss the move this week, and will most likely impose the ban until AstraZeneca fulfills its obligations to EU countries. Of course, this would seriously affect the relations between Europe and the UK, but Brussels is obviously set on banning vaccine exports to London until the bloc receives enough supply.

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With regards to macro statistics, reports from Germany, although very positive, did not lead in a strong rise in EUR / USD. Nevertheless, PPI increased for three consecutive months, jumping by 1.9% year-on-year in February 2021. The core non-energy index also rose by 1.4%, while energy prices climbed by 3.7%.

As for Italy, reports reveal that construction volume rose 4.5% this January, after a massive 4.2% fall last December. Then, on a yearly basis, it decreased by 1.5%.

GBP / USD

Pound continues to trade downwards and is now one step away from forming a strong bearish trend. Obviously, bulls are very weak, but they need to try preventing the breakdown of the 38th figure. This is because dropping below the level will result in a strong collapse towards 1.3740 and 1.3680, which will begin the bear market. But if the bulls manage to bring the pound back to 1.3800, then most likely GBP / USD will climb again to 1.4000.

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With regards to macro statistics, a report revealed that fiscal deficit in the UK hit its highest level this February, reaching a massive £ 19.1 billion from £ 17.6 billion a month earlier. In a yearly basis, it widened sharply from £ 228.2 billion to £ 278.8 billion.

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 22
2021-03-22

EUR/USD

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The previous week has maintained its uncertainty character, with the most important support and resistance levels in this area continuing to be located at the previous borders. The pair remained within the range of 1.1975-91 (weekly Kijun + daily Fibo Kijun) - 1.1886 (weekly Fibo Kijun). If it moves further below, it will be possible to test the downward targets of 1.1821 - 1.1762 (daily target for cloud breakout + monthly short-term trend). In turn, the upward movement will lead the Euro currency to the daily and weekly cross levels (1.2039-64), followed by the daily cloud.

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The key levels in the smaller time frames continue to serve as resistances, currently located in the area of 1.1905-20 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend). However, the favor remains on the bearish side. Today, the downward targets are set at 1.1873-1.1842-1.1810 (classic pivot levels). We can note that the correction period, as well as the proximity and influence of the attraction zone of the key H1 levels, weaken the bears. So, if the price consolidates above the range of 1.1905-20, this will allow us to consider strengthening the positions and moods of the bulls.

GBP/USD

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The weekly candlestick retained its uncertainty. But based on the current result, some advantage still persists on the bears' side, as they successfully close the week below all the closest attraction and resistance levels. The next downside target is now the daily cloud, strengthened by the weekly Fibo Kijun (1.3672). Meanwhile, the resistance and attraction levels retain their position and still form their influence in a fairly wide area 1.3904-1.3954-1.4008-1.4062 (daily cross + weekly levels).

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The key advantage in the smaller time frames still belongs to bearish traders. In fact, the pound sterling is currently in the upward correction zone after testing the first support (1.3815) of the classic pivot levels. Once this support level is broken, the path will open towards other support levels at 1.3759 (S2) and 1.3687 (S3).

Alternatively, the development of a correction and consolidation above the key levels of 1.3901- 1.3887 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend) will change the current situation. If this happens, the resistance levels of the classic pivot levels (1.3943-1.4015-1.4071) will become relevant again.

***

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart are used in the technical analysis of the trading instruments.

Technical analysis for EUR/USD pair for the week of March 22-26, 2021
2021-03-22

Trend analysis

The price from the level of 1.1903 (closing of the last weekly candle) is expected to continue declining to the historical support level of 1.1777 (blue dotted line) this week. After reaching this level, the downward movement may resume towards a target of 1.1693 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 38.2%.

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Figure 1 (weekly chart)

Comprehensive analysis:

  • Indicator analysis - down
  • Fibonacci levels - down
  • Volumes - down
  • Candlestick analysis - up
  • Trend analysis - down
  • Bollinger lines - down
  • Monthly chart - down

A downward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis.

The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price will most likely move in a downward trend, both without an upper shadow (Monday - down) and lower shadow (Friday - down) in the weekly black candlestick.

The first downward target is set at the historical support level of 1.1777 (blue dotted line). Once this level is reached, the downward trend will most likely extend to the target of 1.1693 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 38.2%.

Alternatively, the price may increase from the level of 1.1903 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the target of 1.1977 (black thin line) – 21 average EMA. After reaching this level, it may further rise to the target of 1.2102 (blue dotted line) – a pullback level of 76.4%.

Analysis of Gold for March 22,.2021 - Completion of the ABC upside correction and potential for the downside rotation towards $1.700
2021-03-22
Eurozone January current account balance €30.5 billion vs €36.7 billion prior
  • Prior €36.7 billion

Slight delay in the release by the source. Flows in/out of the euro area economy are keeping thereabouts and are still below pre-virus conditions for the time being. Amid tighter restrictions and what not, it will still take time to get back there.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the buyers got exhausted today and the downside roattion would be probably to correct strong upside movement from recent few days.

Based on the 4H time-frame , there is completion of the ABC upside correction and potential for the another downside swing.

Additionally, there is the breakout of the upside channel, which is good confirmation for the downside...

Key Levels:

Resistance: $1,748

Support levels: $1,701 and $1,679

Technical analysis for GBP/USD pair for the week of March 22-26, 2021
2021-03-22

Last week, the pound/dollar pair declined, tested the level of 1.3829 (blue thin line) – 8th average EMA and then rose, testing the upper fractal of 1.4003 (weekly candlestick from 03/07/2021). The market closed the weekly candle at the level of 1.3972. This week, the price will most likely continue its downward trend.

Trend analysis

This week, the price from the level of 1.3972 (closing of the last weekly candle) is expected to decline to the target of 1.3737 (white thick line) – the support line. After testing this line, it may rise to the target of 1.3942 (blue dotted line) – a pullback level of 85.4%.

analytics60586cdaa0b53.jpg

Figure 1 (weekly chart)

Comprehensive analysis:

  • Indicator analysis - down
  • Fibonacci levels - down
  • Volumes - down
  • Candlestick analysis - up
  • Trend analysis - up
  • Bollinger lines - up
  • Monthly chart - down

A downward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis.

The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price will most likely move in a downward trend, both without the first upper shadow (Monday - down) and without the second lower shadow (Friday - down) in the weekly black candlestick.

The first downward target is the support line of 1.3737 (white thick line). After testing this level, the price may rise to the target of 1.3942 (blue dotted line) – a pullback level of 85.4%.

As an alternative, the price from the level of 1.3972 (closing of the last weekly candle) may decline to the target of 1.3942 (blue dotted line) – a pullback level of 85.4%. Once this level is tested, the upward trend may resume to the target of 1.4237 (blue dotted line) – the historical resistance level.

EUR/USD analysis for March 22 2021 - Key resistance level at the price of 1.1935
2021-03-22
BOJ purchases £50.1 billion worth of ETFs today

BOJ kicks off its new ETF policy with a £50.1 billion purchase today

That's the third time this month and the fourth time (all same amounts) this year.

The latest purchase today comes amid a 2% drop in the Nikkei and a 1% drop in the Topix. The latter is the focus of the latest shift in BOJ policy but if anything, it just rather shifts the support away from less growth-heavy stocks to more value-heavy stocks.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that buyers are in control today but that there is strong resistance at the price of 1,1935.

Based on the 4H time-frame , my advie is to watch for potential test of strong resistance and try to play for the downside towards the 1,1880.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1,1935

Support level: 1,1880

Trading idea for EUR/USD
2021-03-22

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EUR / USD closed with a pin bar last Friday, around which sellers have been accumulating stop losses for two weeks (behind 1.9900 and 1.2000).

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Taking this into account, the most profitable transaction would be buy positions, the strategy for which is presented below:

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Since the euro formed an ABC pattern, where wave A is the bullish initiative last Friday, traders can open long positions in order to set off a 50% retracement from 1.19.

Place limit at 1.18800, and then take profit as soon as the quote reaches 1.9900-1.2000.

Of course, risks should be monitored to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but profitable as long as the strategy used is correct.

The plan above follows the classic Price Action and Stop Hunting methods.

Good luck!

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 22, 2021
2021-03-22

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Overview :
  • The trend of GBP/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability.
  • Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3821 and 1.3982.
  • Dailly range : 1.3982 - 1.3821.
  • Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.3982 and 1.3821 respectively.
  • Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed.
  • The market moved from its bottom at 1.3821 and continued to rise towards the top of 1.3982.
  • Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction.
  • However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.3982, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.3982 (the level of 1.3982 coincides with the double top too, 61.8 of Fibonacci - golden ratio).
  • Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.3982 with the first target at 1.3821.
  • If the trend breaks the support level of 1.3821, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 1.3724 in order to test the daily support 2 (horizontal red line).




Author's today's articles:

Ivan Aleksandrov

Ivan Aleksandrov

Pavel Vlasov

No data

Zhizhko Nadezhda

Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn

Sergey Belyaev

Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis.

Petar Jacimovic

Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"

Andrey Shevchenko

Andrey Shevchenko

Mourad El Keddani

Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.


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