Monday, March 22, 2021

Has Iran been plotting to attack a D.C. military base? — The Afghanistan withdrawal quagmire — U.S. warns India about Russian missile system

Presented by Northrop Grumman: Delivered daily by 10 a.m., Morning Defense examines the latest news in defense policy and politics.
Mar 22, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Bryan Bender

Presented by

With Jacqueline Feldscher and Connor O'Brien

Editor's Note: Morning Defense is a free version of POLITICO Pro Defense's morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

Intelligence points to Iranian threats to bomb Fort McNair in Washington, according to an explosive report.

Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin says the May 1 withdrawal from Afghanistan is still possible, but signs point to an indefinite delay.

The U.S. is hinting at sanctions against India if it follows through on plans to acquire a Russian air defense system.

HAPPY MONDAY AND WELCOME BACK TO MORNING DEFENSE, where we're always on the lookout for tips, pitches and feedback. Email us at bbender@politico.com, and follow on Twitter @bryandbender, @morningdefense and @politicopro.

 

A message from Northrop Grumman:

We revolutionized long range strike with the B-2. Now, we're Defining Possible again with B-21 Raider. Drawing on decades of stealth expertise, we've created a platform ready to dominate the battlefields of tomorrow. Learn more about how B-21 Raider is Defining Possible.

 
Driving the Day

KAHL COUNTDOWN: Could this be the week where we get some movement on the delayed nomination of Colin Kahl to be Pentagon policy chief? His hopes for getting through the Senate Armed Services Committee, let alone the full Senate, looked even dimmer on Friday with the news that moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins will vote "no" over lingering concerns about his policy stances and partisan tweets, our colleague Burgess Everett reports for Pros.

"Some of Dr. Kahl's actions have raised questions about his ability to work with Congress in a thoughtful and productive manner," she said in a statement to POLITICO. "If America is going to successfully confront our toughest national security challenges, we need a nominee for this position who will help bring Republicans and Democrats together."

What does it mean? Unless another Republican on the panel backs him, centrist Democrat Joe Manchin, who remains undecided, could decide Kahl's fate. A party-line vote in the full Senate would also require Vice President Kamala Harris to cast a tie-breaking vote.

HEARING MENU: A series of congressional hearings is scheduled in the House and Senate this week.

On Tuesday, the SASC holds a nomination hearing for Navy Adm. John Aquilino to be head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command at 9:30 a.m.

The House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee holds a hearing on future defense spending at 2 p.m.

The House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee holds a hearing with the vice chiefs of the military branches on "Learning From and Preventing Future Training Mishaps" at 3 pm.

On Wednesday, the House Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on extremism in the military with experts on radical movements at noon.

On Friday, the HASC Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations hears testimony from former officials and nongovernmental experts on the culture and climate of special operations forces at 11 a.m.

And the HASC Readiness Subcommittee holds a hearing with top military officials on "Installation Resiliency: Lessons Learned from Winter Storm Uri and Beyond" at 3 p.m.

 

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For Your Radar

WAR POWERS VOTE: In what is likely to be the opening salvo in the renewed bipartisan push to overhaul congressional war powers, the House Foreign Affairs Committee this week plans to hold a vote on a measure to repeal the 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force against Iraq.

It is one of several proposals in the House and Senate to repeal and replace outdated resolutions that underpin a series of conflicts, including the 2001 AUMF that justified two decades of counterterrorism operations across the globe.

Related: Repeal the president's Iraq War powers, by Sen. Tim Kaine and Rep. Barbara Lee, via Foreign Policy.

And: GOP hawks warn against repealing Iraq War resolution ahead of Vote, via National Review.

Happening Today

The Heritage Foundation hosts a discussion on the future of nuclear modernization with Sen. Deb Fischer, the top Republican on the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, at 11:30 a.m.

 

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Happening This Week

On Tuesday, the National Defense Industrial Association kicks off its two-day National Security AI Conference featuring Lt. Gen. Michael Groen, director of the Pentagon's Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Michael Brown, director of the Defense Innovation Unit; and Reps. Jim Langevin and Elise Stefanik

On Thursday, the Brookings Institution hosts a discussion with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville at 10 a.m.

For a full schedule of events check out the Pro calendar.

War Report

TARGET FORT MCNAIR? A particularly disturbing report on Sunday revealed that Iran's paramilitary forces threatened to launch water-borne "USS Cole-style attacks" on Fort McNair along the Southwest D.C. waterfront, home to some of the Pentagon's top brass, the National Defense University, and the headquarters of the U.S. Military District of Washington.

The intelligence also revealed threats to kill Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Joseph Martin "and plans to infiltrate and surveil the base," The Associated Press reported, citing two senior U.S. intelligence officials.

"The intercepted chatter was among members of the elite Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard and centered on potential military options to avenge the U.S. killing of the former Quds leader, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad in January 2020, the two intelligence officials said."

The threats are a primary reason the Army wants to step up security around the post, the report said.

Flashback: It wouldn't be the first time the Quds Force has been fingered in a terrorist plot in the nation's capital.

Related: Iran probably already has the bomb. Here's what to do about it, via National Review.

AUSTIN IN AFGHANISTAN: "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made a surprise stop in Afghanistan on Sunday, his first as Pentagon chief, as top generals warn that the country could fall into chaos if U.S. troops withdraw before diplomatic efforts between the Taliban and the Afghan government to end the conflict yield results," our colleague Lara Seligman reports from Kabul for Pros.

Biden is still weighing whether to withdraw some 3,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by May 1, the deadline agreed to last year by the Trump administration in an agreement with the Taliban. But violence in the country remains too high.

"It's obvious that the level of violence remains pretty high in the country, we'd really like to see that violence come down," Austin told reporters after meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. "If it does come down, it can begin to set the conditions for some really fruitful diplomatic work."

A full pullout by May 1 looks unlikely, especially with little prospect of a peace deal between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

"If we withdraw and no deal was made with the Taliban, I think the government of Afghanistan is going to be in for a very stiff fight to retain possession" of urban population centers, Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of U.S. Central Command, said last week.

The militant group maintained it has abided by the agreement, Newsweek reports . While the Taliban have not targeted U.S or NATO troops since the February 2020 pact, attacks on Afghan security forces have increased.

U.S. defense officials insisted that if Biden decides to stick with May 1, they can still pull it off. "There's probably nobody who understands the physics associated with removing troops and equipment out of a place better than me," said Austin, who as a four-star general oversaw the 2011 withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq. "Whatever decision the president makes, you can trust it will be fully supported."

And progressives lawmakers have made it clear they will keep the pressure on to meet the May 1 deadline. "...It is long past time for the United States to end its military role in a complex conflict that predates our initial invasion two decades ago, Reps. Barbara Lee and Ken Buck wrote to Biden on Thursday.

Related: U.S., NATO allies to discuss plans to end war in Afghanistan, via The Wall Street Journal.

Plus: In Syria, U.S. commanders hold the line — and wait for Biden, via Defense One.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING : The Biden administration is more than halfway through its first 100 days and is now facing a growing crisis at the border and escalating violence against Asian Americans, while navigating the pandemic and ongoing economic challenges. Add Transition Playbook to your daily reads to find out what actions are being considered, as well the internal state of play inside the West Wing and across the administration. Track the people, policies, and emerging power centers of the Biden administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

 
 
Indo-Asia Pacific

'THAT WOULD TRIGGER SANCTIONS': Austin arrived in Afghanistan after a stop in India, where he warned New Delhi to drop plans to acquire the Russian-made S-400 anti-missile system, Lara also reports for Pros.

"We certainly urge all our allies and partners to move away from Russian equipment … and really avoid any kind of acquisitions that would trigger sanctions on our behalf," Austin told reporters.

U.S. officials, who have been trying to lure India away from Russia's orbit with growing arms sales and defense cooperation, insist that the S-400 cannot co-exist with U.S. equipment and can be used to collect intelligence on American capabilities, particularly the F-35 fighter jet.

The Biden administration is under increasing pressure from Congress to punish India like NATO ally Turkey when it acquired the S-400. Sen. Bob Menendez, who chairs the Foreign Relations Committee, told Austin in a letter last week that if India follows through, the move "will clearly constitute a significant, and therefore sanctionable, transaction with the Russian defense sector."

During his India visit, Austin met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss ways to strengthen ties, particularly to confront China, Lara also reports for Pros. In subsequent talks with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, the two sides agreed to deepen their military ties, The Associated Press reported.

A PERSONAL TAKE: Austin, the first Black defense secretary, recalled in an interview with CBS' 60 Minutes that aired Sunday how he has personally confronted bias in the military, even when he was a senior general.

"It doesn't change as you climb the ladder. You still get the doubts," he told CBS's David Martin. There are always going to be people, because of what you look like, that will question your qualifications."

Related: Here's the Air Force's plan to diversify its pilot corps, via Air Force Times.

Industry Intel

FAR FROM A DONE DEAL: The government program to reimburse the salaries of contractors because federal facilities have been shuttered by the pandemic has been extended through September. But that's not the end of the story, as our colleague Julia Arciga points out in a new POLITICO Pro bill analysis.

"Even though Congress has authorized the program through September," she writes, "it has not appropriated any money for the Pentagon to actually pay contractors." The Pentagon reported last month it has reimbursed 84 companies a total of about $50 million.

The legislation, which was adopted as an amendment to the Covid relief package, has also not been without controversy. Some lawmakers have called it "an insult" to those who have to go to work every day in person. And it remains in doubt whether calls by influential trade groups to make it permanent will get traction.

 

A message from Northrop Grumman:

Just over 30 years ago, we revolutionized long range strike with the launch of the B-2, the world's first stealth bomber. Now, we're Defining Possible again with the B-21 Raider. Intended as the premier bomber for the US Air Force in the 21st century, the B-21 Raider is no ordinary aircraft with no ordinary mission. Drawing on decades of stealth and strike experience, we've created a powerful, flexible platform ready to win today and dominate the battlefields of tomorrow. Learn more about how the B-21 Raider.

 
Speed Read

Congressman calls for service members, veterans who stormed the Capitol to be stripped of benefits: Stars and Stripes

Slandering the U.S. military ... again: National Review

From soft liberalism to iron-fisted leftism in today's U.S. military: Newsweek

U.S. deploys Green Berets to defeat ISIS-linked insurgents accused of beheading children on a new front in southern Africa: Business Insider

Will the Biden administration shine light on shadowy special ops programs? The Intercept

GAO to review decision to move Space Command to Alabama: The Hill

This is the F-36 Kingsnake. It could be the Air Force's next fighter jet: Popular Mechanics

Lockheed Martin shutters two Navy plants: Forbes

Military drone washes ashore on Florida beach: CBS Miami

Former intelligence chief: 'Quite a few more' UFOs detected than public knows: Washington Examiner

New Pentagon No. 2 warns China's "aggressive" actions pose threat to global order: NBC News

Top NATO scientist with security clearance busted spying for China: The Daily Beast

An existential discussion: What is the probability of nuclear war? Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Dear G.I.: An unlikely friendship built on letters from a foxhole: The New York Times

 

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Bryan Bender @bryandbender

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