| GBP/USD. March 19. COT report. The British dollar fell after the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. 2021-03-19 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3980), a reversal in favor of the US currency, and a fall to the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3900). However, the rebound was also made from the level of 50.0%, which allows traders to count on some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3980). Closing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of continuing the fall towards the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.3820). Meanwhile, the latest drop in the British pound was fairly easy to predict. One has only to look at the behavior of traders around the level of 1.3980 in the last two weeks and it becomes clear that the probability of closing above this level was low. Also, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose again yesterday. And we remember that traders like to respond to the growth of profitability by buying the dollar. Also, yesterday, the Bank of England held a meeting, which left all the main parameters of monetary policy unchanged, that is, it once again took a wait-and-see position, which could hardly please traders, given the serious problems in the British economy. It is worth reminding once again that many have long been waiting for the Bank of England to lower the rate again or introduce any additional stimulus measures. But instead, the Bank of England has signaled to markets that it is not going to tighten monetary policy until inflation reaches a steady 2%. Thus, it is safe to say that the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England this week disappointed traders. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the level of 1.3850, an increase to the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.3979), a rebound from this level, and a reversal in favor of the US currency. As a result, the pair's quotes intend to make a return to the level of 1.3850. The upward trend line is no longer working. But, as in the case of the euro currency, there is a side corridor, which is visible on the hourly chart. GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to be above the ascending trend line. In the long term, the "bullish" mood of traders is still preserved. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084) will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812). GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Thursday, there were no other important events in the UK besides the results of the Bank of England meeting. In the US, Jerome Powell's speech did not give traders any new information. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: On Friday, the calendars of economic events in the United States and Britain are empty, so today the information background will be absent. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from March 9 on the British was quite interesting. A week earlier, I drew readers' attention to the fact that the nature of the COT reports on the euro and the pound were opposite. This time, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders in the UK also became more "bearish". During the reporting week, speculators closed 5.5 thousand long contracts and opened only 344 short contracts. Thus, the belief that the Briton will continue its growth is falling among the major players. But it is falling at a much weaker rate than that of the major players in the European market. So the British pound is much less likely to fall than the euro and much more likely to rise than the euro. GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: I recommend buying the British dollar today in case of a rebound from the level of 1.3900 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3980. It was recommended to sell the pound sterling if there is a rebound from the area of 1.3980-1.4000 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3900. Now, if you close at 1.3900, I recommend continuing to sell with a target of 1.3820. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. March 19. COT report. Christine Lagarde depresses the euro currency and blames American treasuries for the rise in European bond yields. 2021-03-19 EUR/USD – 1H. 
The EUR/USD pair closed under the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1952) during the past day and now continues the process of falling towards the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.1873). Thus, the bull traders failed to develop success in the next cut. Meanwhile, the information background was very strong for the second day in a row. Let me remind you that on Wednesday, the Fed summed up the results of the two-day meeting and, although it did not make any important decisions, there was still something to pay attention to. In any case, the US dollar performed a fairly strong drop on this event. And yesterday there was a speech by Christine Lagarde, who first said that in the first quarter of 2021, the European economy will contract again (after the fourth quarter of 2020, in which a fall of 0.7% was recorded). However, this is not the main thing. The ECB president again spoke about the high degree of risk associated with the coronavirus. According to Christine Lagarde, "the high level of COVID-2019 infection, the spread of new strains, and the tightening of measures to counter the epidemic continue to harm economic activity in the European Union". Thus, Europe seems to be sliding into the third wave of the epidemic, despite the beginning of the vaccination process. Many countries have recently tightened quarantine measures, some are going to introduce a new "lockdown". Naturally, all this will cause a new contraction of the economy. Thus, the prospects for the European currency are not the most rosy yet. Bull traders will have a hard time in the near future. But I note the continued growth in the yield of US 10-year treasuries, which have already reached the level of 1.703% and also resist bull traders, as they increase the demand for the dollar. Christine Lagarde believes that the growth of European bond yields is directly related to the growth of American treasuries. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began a new process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.1836, near which they stopped last time. However, in general, the entire movement of the pair already resembles the movement in the side corridor between the levels of 1.1836 and 1.1988. At least it is in this price range that the pair has been since March 5, that is, for two weeks. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor, so the mood on the traffic was "bearish". The descending trend line confirms this. Fixing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 261.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1566). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On March 18, in the European Union, Christine Lagarde gave a speech twice, and there was also a speech by Jerome Powell. But the Fed chairman talked more about the digital dollar, rather than the economy and monetary policy. The number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits in the US slightly exceeded the expectations of traders. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: On March 19, the calendars of economic events in the United States and the European Union are empty. Thus, the influence of the information background will be absent today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the second week in a row, it turns out to be quite aggressive. This time, the "Non-commercial" category of traders reduced 14,000 long contracts on their hands and opened 12,000 new short contracts. It follows that the mood of speculators has become much more "bearish". Consequently, the chances of a further fall in the euro currency quotes are growing. Other categories of traders are of much less concern to us since it is speculators who set the tone of trading. EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to sell the pair at the closing of quotes under the level of 100.0% (1.1952) with a target of 1.1873 on the hourly chart. Today, these transactions can be kept open. I recommend buying the pair when rebounding from the levels of 1.1885 or 1.1836 (the two previous lows) with a target of 1.1952. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for March 19, 2021 2021-03-19 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will move upward from the level of 1.1913 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to try reaching the historical resistance level of 1.1954 (the blue dotted line). In case of testing this level, it is likely to work up with the target 1.1988 - the upper fractal (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis – up;
- Fibonacci levels – up;
- Volumes – up;
- Candlestick analysis – up;
- Trend analysis – up;
- Bollinger bands – up;
- Weekly chart – up.
General conclusion: Today, the price will move upward from the level of 1.1913 (closing yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the historical resistance level of 1.1954 (blue dotted line). In case of testing this level, it is likely to work up with the target 1.1988 - the upper fractal (blue dotted line). Alternative scenario: the price will move down from the level of 1.1913 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) and try to reach the 61.8% retracement level, which is 1.1887 (the red dotted line). If this level is tested, it is likely to continue working downwards with the target of 1.1858 – the 85.4% retracement level (blue dotted line). EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 19. COT reports. Euro lost everything it got after the Fed meeting. Bears aim for 1.1884 2021-03-19 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Buyers tried their best to keep the market under their control, but another round of growth in Treasury bond yields sharply weighed on the euro. I paid attention to two important levels in yesterday's morning forecast: resistance at 1.1989 and support at 1.1939. Let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and talk about what happened there. To my regret, it slightly fell short before a false breakout formed in the resistance area of 1.1989, which buyers approached very closely in the first half of the day. Therefore, I was forced to skip the downward movement that happened later. A false breakout of the 1.1939 level resulted in creating a signal to buy the euro, however, there was no rapid large growth from this level. Another false breakout was formed during the US session: it became a confirmation of a signal to buy the euro, but the bulls, despite weak reports on the US labor market, did not have enough strength to return the pair to morning highs. As a result: we saw the euro fall beyond 1.1939 and even further. A reverse test of this range in the afternoon creates a fairly convenient entry point for short positions, which is clearly visible on the chart. 
No important fundamental reports or speeches by representatives of world central banks today, so the emphasis is purely on technical analysis and reaching the nearest support and resistance levels. The bulls' primary task is to break through and regain control of resistance at 1.1939, where the moving averages pass, playing on the sellers' side of the euro. Testing this level from the bottom up, along with good data on German producer prices for February, creates a convenient entry point into long positions in hopes that EUR/USD would rise to a high like 1.1989, where I recommend taking profit. The next big resistance is seen around 1.2047, but it won't be easy to get to, especially with another rise in US bond yields. With a downward correction in the first half of the day, you can open long positions after a false breakout forms in the 1.1884 area, where the lower border of the current horizontal channel also passes. If buyers are not active, then I recommend postponing long positions for a rebound, then a larger low like 1.1838, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. Testing this level will completely cancel out all the bulls' plans regarding the euro's rapid growth To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bears need to think of a way to defend resistance at 1.1939, which is where the moving averages that play on their side are. Forming a false breakout at this level will be an excellent signal to open short positions in order to pull down EUR/USD to the area of the lower border of the horizontal channel at 1.1884. The euro will likely be under pressure, considering that important fundamental reports will not be released today. A breakthrough and consolidation below 1.1884 will quickly push EUR/USD to the 1.1838 low, where I recommend taking profits. If bears are not that active near resistance at 1.1939, and the bulls manage to break through and rise above this area, then it would be best to open short positions immediately on a rebound from the next large resistance at 1.1989, counting on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next major high is clearly visible in the 1.2047 area. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 9 clearly shows a sharp decline in long positions and a very large increase in short positions, which indicates a continued shift in the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the euro's decline, which we have seen since the end of February. Bond yields in many developed countries continue to sharply rise, which plays in favor of the dollar, as investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the greenback more attractive. The European Central Bank's recent meeting did not change the market, as the decisions made were not critical and did not affect investor sentiment in any way. It is best not to rush into euro purchases, but to wait for lower prices. The growth in the incidence of coronavirus is another factor of medium-term pressure on the euro. The slow vaccination program for the population is pushing the cancellation of quarantine measures to a later date. We can only expect an improvement in the economic outlook for the eurozone once restrictions are lifted and the service sector is restored, which will return the medium-term trend to strengthening EUR/USD. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 222,655 to 207,588, while short non-commercial positions rose from 96,667 to 105,624. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the fourth consecutive week, from 125,988 to 101,964. The weekly closing price was 1.1812 against 1.2048 a week earlier. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is underway below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bears attempt to resume the downward trend. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1900 area will lead to a larger downward movement for the euro. The breakout of the upper border in the 1.1939 area will strengthen the euro's growth. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 19. COT reports. Pound pushed in a wide horizontal channel, but bears are hoping to fall below 1.3897 2021-03-19 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Long positions on the pound from yesterday morning did not bring the expected success, although the entry point was formed correctly and one could count on the continuation of the upward trend. I analyzed the deal in detail in yesterday's forecast. Now let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and talk about what happened in the afternoon. We could clearly see that after a breakout of support at 1.3942 and the reverse test of this level from the bottom up, an excellent signal was formed to open short positions in the pound, which quickly enough resulted in the pair falling to the support area of 1.3897, where I recommended taking profits and opening long positions immediately on a rebound. As a result, both movements brought more than 100 points of profit, which made it possible not only to recapture a small negative in the morning, but also to make good money. 
The results of yesterday's Bank of England's meeting were not surprising, which led to another sale of the pound. Not without the rapid strengthening of the US dollar against the pound amid the backdrop of rising Treasury yields. The BoE left its key interest rate at 0.10% and the quantitative easing program at 895 billion pounds. Since today will be a calmer day, the bulls can take advantage of this moment and continue pushing for the growth of GBP/USD. The initial task is to protect support at 1.3897, which has already been tested twice recently, so there is very little trust in it. Forming a false breakout there generates a signal to open long positions in hopes to continue the upward trend, and the nearest target will be resistance at 1.3947, which the pair failed to surpass in yesterday's US session. A breakthrough of 1.3947 along with being able to test this level from top to bottom creates another signal to buy the pound in hopes to reach a high like 1.3996, where I recommend taking profits. If traders are not active in the support area of 1.3897, then it would be best to hold back from long positions until the a low like 1.3855 has been tested from where you can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next major support area is seen around 1.3812. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The initial task of the bears is to break and consolidate below support at 1.3897, which they have already tested several times recently. Renewing this level from the bottom up will create a good signal to open short positions in continuing the downward correction with an exit to a low like 1.3855. Support at 1.3812 is still a target, where I recommend taking profit. This level acts as a kind of lower border of a wide horizontal channel, in which the pound has been in for quite a long time. Its breakout creates a new major bearish trend. In case GBP/USD grows in the first half of the day, the task is to protect resistance at 1.3947. Forming a false breakout there will create a new entry point for short positions, counting on continuing the pair's downward correction. If bears are not active in the 1.3947 resistance area, then it would be best not to rush to sell: you can open short positions immediately on a rebound from a high like 1.3996, counting on a downward correction of 30–35 points within the day. The next major area of resistance is seen around 1.4062. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 9 revealed a reduction in both short and long commercial positions. This time, the closing of long positions became quite strong, which led to a reduction in the positive delta. The main problem for risky assets, which can be attributed to the pound, is still the growth in the yield of US bonds, which provides serious support to the US dollar. However, in the medium term, buyers of the pound will certainly take advantage of this moment to enter the market at more attractive prices. The beginning of quarantine measures in March will continue to provide the main support for the pound, as well as new measures to help the UK population in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Long non-commercial positions declined from 65,138 to 61,271. At the same time, short non-commercials declined from 29,056 to 27,360, indicating a succeeding decline for the pair. As a result, the non-commercial net position fell to 33,911 from 36,082 a week earlier. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.3821 against 1.3928. The observed downward correction in the pound will attract new buyers. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bears' attempt to return to the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3897 area will increase the pressure on the pair. If the pound rises, the upper border of the indicator at 1.3980 will act as a resistance. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 03/19/21 2021-03-19 Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to continue moving down from the level of 1.3925 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3869 at the support line (the red bold line). When this line is reached, the price may start moving up with the target of 1.3944 - a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). After reaching this line, the price will continue to move up with the target of 1.4217 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis - down - Fibonacci Levels - down - Volumes - down - Candle Analysis - down - Trend Analysis - up - Bollinger Bands - up - Weekly Chart - up General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue moving down from the level of 1.3925 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3869 at the support line (the red bold line). When this line is reached, the price may start moving up with the target of 1.3944 – a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). After reaching this line, the price will continue to move up with the target of 1.4217at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.3925 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), it will try to start moving down with the target of 1.3869 – the support line (the red bold line). When this line is reached, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.3816 – a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). When testing this line, the price will continue to move up. AUD/USD. Australian dollar's trump card and dollar bulls' attack 2021-03-19 The AUD/USD pair is trading in the control of the US currency. It failed to consolidate at the reached peaks and returned to the area of the 0.77 mark again, following the impulsive growth of more than 100 points towards the middle of the level of 0.78 due to the release of strong Australian labor market data. Moreover, the AUD was unable to oppose the USD, which follows the 10-year Treasury yield. During the last Fed meeting, they did not scare investors by controlling the yield curve, instead they ignored the latest trends in the US debt market. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is quite sensitive to the exceeding of target levels, increasing the pace and volume of bond purchases. This is also the reason why the AUD/USD pair cannot break through the resistance level of 0.7850. In fact, AUD buyers approached this target several times this month and even tested it, but they returned every time. Even strong data on the growth of the Australian labor market could not provide a reliable growth for its national currency, which decline to the range of 0.7710-0.7790 after the impulse growth. 
Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair still have the potential to further rise. Even against the US dollar, the Australian one is resisting the attack of dollar bulls. In general, the situation in Australia is similar to that of the United States – the economy is recovering at a faster pace, but the central banks are not in a rush to take a "hawkish" position. Moreover, both the FRS and the RBA representatives assure investors that the soft conditions of monetary policy will continue for quite some time, that is, for the next two to three years, even despite positive economic trends. Such rhetoric of representatives of the Central Bank cools the bullish impulses, but overall, the currency market is strengthening the prospect that Central banks will eventually have to reckon with the "objective reality". Such assumptions are confirmed by recent macroeconomic reports. Going back to the Australian Nonfarm data, it is worth noting that almost all components appeared in the "green" zone, which exceeded the forecasted values.The February figures reflected the recovery in the Australian labor market, partly leveling the voiced concerns of RBA members during the last meeting. As a result, the unemployment rate in the country sharply declined to 5.8%, although it should have remained at 6.4% based on preliminary forecasts. This indicator shows a downward trend for the four consecutive months, indicating "good condition" trends in the labor market. The last time unemployment was at this level or to be precise, slightly lower (5.2%), was in March 2020, that is, before Australia felt the first negative effects of the COVID-19 crisis. From that point on, this indicator has fluctuated in the range of 5.0%-5.4%. In other words, unemployment is close to pre-crisis levels, which is earlier than expected. In particular, the RBA members announced their forecast at the February meeting. According to which, this year's unemployment rate is expected around 6%, while it will return to the pre-crisis range of 5% -5.5% only in 2022. However, it can be seen that the indicator is falling at a rapid pace compared to the initial forecasts, so it might return to the above range in the Q2 of this year. 
In addition, we should note the positive dynamics of the growth in the number of employed in February. The total values also turned out to be better than forecasted, coming out at around 88 thousand, against the forecasted growth of 38 thousand. However, the structure of this indicator suggests that overall growth was driven by full employment, whereas part-time employment showed a negative result (ratio +89/-0.5). At the same time, it is known that full-time positions usually offer a higher level of salary and a higher level of social security, compared to temporary part-time jobs. Therefore, the current dynamics in this case is extremely positive. Moreover, a similar pattern was observed in the past month and in December: the full-time component was almost twice as high as the part-time component. Therefore, the Australian labor market has shown its "positive qualities" again, allowing AUD/USD buyers to depend on a more optimistic attitude from RBA members. Despite the attack of the US currency, the Australian dollar retains the potential to rise further, since it has its own individual reasons to strengthen. In this case, long positions with a medium-term target of 0.7780 (middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart) can be considered when approaching the support level of 0.7700 (upper border of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). Lastly, the main target is set at the local price high of 0.7850, which serves as a key resistance level. Simple wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/JPY for March 19, 2021 2021-03-19 EUR/USD Analysis: An incomplete downward wave structure started on January 6. The upward wave that started in early March does not exceed the intermediate correction level of the last wave (C). Yesterday's downward trend has a reversal potential and can trigger the formation of a new section of the main wave. Forecast: Today, the price is likely to move sideways between the closest zones. In the first half of the day, the upward movement is expected. By the end of the day, an increase in volatility and change in the trend are highly likely. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.1960/1.1990 Support: - 1.1900/1.1870 Recommendations: In the first half of the trading day, it will be possible to open short-term long positions with a smaller lot size on EUR/USD. The upward potential should be limited to the calculated resistance zone. Then, you should change your trading strategy and track sell signals 
AUD/USD Analysis: The aussie reached the borders of a strong reversal zone owing to the upward trend. The price has been correcting since February 25. The wave structure consists of waves A and B. Yesterday's downward trend has a reversal potential and may mark the beginning of the final wave (C). Forecast: In the first half of the day, a short-term upward trend is expected. By the end of the day, the price is likely to reverse and go down to the calculated support zone. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.7800/0.7830 Support: - 0.7730/0.7700 Recommendations: When buying AUD/USD, you should be careful and reduce the lot size. Short positions are preferable from the resistance zone. 
GBP/JPY Analysis: The upward trend on GBP/JPY has dominated the market since last spring. The price has been within the borders of a strong resistance zone in a high time frame. An incomplete wave started on February 26 in a low time frame. A correction has almost ended. The final wave (C) is missing. Forecast: The pair is likely to move sideways along the borders of the support zone during the upcoming trading session. By the end of the day, the trend may reverse and a breakout to the resistance zone may occur. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 152.10/152.40 Support: - 151.40/151.10 Recommendations: Only intraday trading on GBP/JPY with smaller lots will be possible today. Long positions will be a priority. Note: In simple wave analysis, we review a three-wave pattern labeled A-B-C and analyze the last unfinished wave. Straight arrows show the formed wave structure, while dashed lines show the expected movements. Warning: The wave pattern does not take into account the duration of the instrument's movements in time! Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 19. Euro is under pressure due to rising coronavirus incidents in Europe. 2021-03-19 
Latest report shows that another pandemic wave is emerging. As we can see on the chart, the one that is most at risk is Europe, having recorded a 40% growth in daily incidents. In fact, right at this moment, 6 of its member states are topping the list for heavily infected countries. The pace of vaccinations also remains slow, and poor weather conditions are escalating the situation. Euro traded downwards because of this news. 
EUR/USD: Euro pulled back and is now trading near its earlier price levels. That being said, continue placing long positions from 1.1920 to 1.1880 and expect a downward reversal from there. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 19, 2021 2021-03-19 Technical Market Outlook: The bulls on GBP/USD pair failed to resume the up trend again by bouncing towards the level of 1.4001 which is an intraday technical resistance for the market. The market has returned back to the consolidation zone located between the levels of 1.4001 - 1.3801. . The bulls tried three times already to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement in the past, so any breakout higher will be dynamic and strong with a target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4054 and 1.4060. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.3930. Any violation of this level will directly expose 1.3850 for a test. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4220 WR2 - 1.4106 WR1 - 1.4016 Weekly Pivot - 1.3905 WS1 - 1.3808 WS2 - 1.3702 WS3 - 1.3608 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend despite the face, that is back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 19, 2021 2021-03-19 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has bounced towards the level of 1.1994, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls, but the wave up was not strong enough to break through this level. Nevertheless, if the bulls will violate 1.1994, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.2023 and 1.2091. If there is no breakout above this level, then the down move will likely resume lower towards the 1.1835 and below. Moreover, the recent move down from the top located at 1.2349 is the biggest correction since March 3rd 2020, so the price overbalance is done and the market might be changing the trend soon. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2176 WR2 - 1.2081 WR1 - 1.2020 Weekly Pivot - 1.1926 WS1 - 1.1871 WS2 - 1.1786 WS3 - 1.1716 Trading Recommendations: Despite the recent correction to 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up the long term trend on EUR/USD pair remains up on monthly time frame chart, however the weekly time frame chart show the counter-trend corrective cycle is in progress. This corrective cycle has not been completed yet, because the key level for bulls is located at 1.1608. As long as the market trades above this level the up trend is valid and all of the down waves should be used to open long positions. 
Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and DXY on March 19, 2021 2021-03-19 Yesterday, the US dollar received local support based on the data received on the dollar index (DXY) chart, where there was growth by about 0.5%, namely from 91.39 to 91.90. It is noteworthy that the US dollar has been moving around the range of 91.40/92.00 for the sixth trading day, without a change in fundamental factors. It can be recalled that the Dollar Index (DXY) is the ratio of the US dollar (USD) to a basket of six currencies and is a weighted average of the dollar against the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD) , Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF). Analyzing the dollar index chart everyday, we now understand the general mood of the US currency against its competitors. What happened on the market in terms of the economic calendar? The Bank of England held its scheduled meeting yesterday, from which they kept the base interest rate at the same level, that is, at 0.1%, as well as the volume of the bond repurchase program. According to the BoE's statement, there is currently a significant degree of spare capacity. They also mentioned that the economic outlook, especially the relative movement of supply and demand during the post-pandemic recovery, remains unusually uncertain. To put it simply, the Bank of England took a "dovish" position without doing anything. In this case, the value of the pound sterling declined during the results of the meeting. As for statistical indicators, the publication of US weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits should be emphasized. It recorded growth in its volume, instead of the expected decline. - Volume of initial applications for benefits rose from 725 thousand to 770 thousand, with a forecasted decline to 700 thousand.
- Volume of repeated applications for benefits fell from 4,142 thousand to 4,124 thousand, although it was expected to decline to 4,070 thousand.
A few hours later, the market reacted to the weak US data. However, the weakening of the dollar was local in nature. 
What happened on the trading chart? In the course of a natural rebound from the area of the psychological level of 1.2000, the EUR/USD pair returned to the range of the variable pivot point of 1.1900. This is where the decline stopped on March 17. Similarly to the European one, the GBP/USD pair has a similar behavior in the market. But in this case, the psychological level of 1.4000 acted as a resistance, relative to which the price rebounded along a downward course. The natural basis associated with the level of 1.4000 leads to a decline in the volume of long positions and an increase in the short one for the fifth time since this month started. Trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 19 Today, there is no important statistical data for Europe, the UK and the US worth paying attention to. In this case, the market will continue to move based on technical analysis, and there may be a surge in the information flow. Looking at the EUR/USD pair trading chart, it can be seen that the quote slowed down the decline within the level of 1.1900, which led to an amplitude swing of the pullback. In this case, we do not exclude the local movement of the price towards the lower border of the psychological area of 1.1950/1.2000/1.2050. In turn, the downward development will be considered in the market once the quote is held below the level of 1.1880. 
As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD pair, the price fluctuations within the area of the psychological level of 1.4000 (1.3950/1.4000/1.4050) is shown. The natural basis associated with this area is still relevant in the market, so we should not rule out the continuation of downward interest. 
Forex forecast 03/19/2021 on USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, SP500, Dow Jones and DAX from Sebastian Seliga 2021-03-19 Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, SP500, Dow Jones and DAX on the daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Mihail Makarov  - Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up."
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