| GBP/USD. March 17. COT report. The news background from the UK continues to disappoint traders, however, the British dollar heroically holds above 1.38 2021-03-17 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed on Tuesday a fall to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3820), a rebound from it, a reversal in favor of the British dollar, and an increase to the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3900). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the level of 1.3820. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 50.0% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3980). All the latest news from the UK is colored in a negative shade. One positive news – good vaccination rates. All the other news concerns the record-high public debt in Britain, the huge budget deficit for 2021, the conflict with the European Union concerning London's non-compliance with the terms of the Brexit agreement and, in particular, the protocol on the Northern Ireland border, a possible conflict on the island of Ireland itself, and the possible separation of Scotland. And all this is "seasoned" with a drop in GDP in January by 2.9% and a serious drop in import and export operations with the European Union in early 2021. Thus, the pound sterling should now be aiming for the level of 1.3000. However, in America, everything is also not too "sweet". For example, yesterday's reports on industrial production and retail sales were extremely weak, which negatively affected the dollar. Also, Joe Biden and the US Congress approved the allocation of another 1.9 trillion dollars in the framework of the program to support the economy and soon this money will flow to the markets, which can also negatively affect the US currency. In general, while the markets are looking for a balance between all factors and waiting for the results of the meeting of the Fed and the Bank of England. After the completion of these events, it will be possible to build a further trading strategy. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a close under the upward trend line, thus, the mood of traders changed to "bearish". However, as I warned yesterday, there was no clear close below the level of 1.3850. On the contrary, there was a rebound from this level, which speaks in favor of a possible resumption of the growth process, despite the closure under the trend line. GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to be above the ascending trend line. In the long term, the "bullish" mood of traders is still preserved. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084) will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812). GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: There was no major report or other events in the UK on Tuesday. And reports from the US led to a drop in demand for the US currency. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: US - FOMC decision on the main interest rate (18:00 GMT). US - FOMC accompanying statement (18:00 GMT). US - FOMC economic forecast (18:00 GMT). US - FOMC press conference (18:30 GMT). On Wednesday, the calendar of economic events in Britain is again empty, however, the Fed meeting and its results can cause serious movements in the market. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from March 9 on the British was quite interesting. A week earlier, I drew readers' attention to the fact that the nature of the COT reports on the euro and the pound were opposite. This time, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders in the UK also became more "bearish". During the reporting week, speculators closed 5.5 thousand long contracts and opened only 344 short contracts. Thus, the belief that the Briton will continue its growth is falling among the major players. But it is falling at a much weaker rate than that of the major players in the European market. So the British pound is much less likely to fall than the euro and much more likely to rise than the euro. GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: It is recommended to buy the British dollar if it closes above the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3900) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3980. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling if there is a rebound from the level of 1.3900 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3820. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. March 17. COT report. What to expect from the Fed today? 2021-03-17 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On March 16, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1952), turned in favor of the US currency, and began a new process of falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1873), which very quickly stopped. At the moment, the market is again completely calm. Traders are waiting for the outcome of the Fed meeting and the speech of its chairman. Inflation - increased by the end of February from 1.4% to 1.7% per annum, but at the same time, core inflation, which does not take into account food and energy, on the contrary, decreased from 1.4% to 1.3% y/y. This suggests that the increase in inflation was mainly due to the rise in oil prices on world markets. This is hardly the growth the Fed wants to achieve. The labor market. The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report showed an increase of 379,000 jobs outside of agriculture, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. Thus, the labor market continues to recover and this is undoubtedly a plus for the dollar. GDP. At the end of the fourth quarter, growth of 4.1% is likely to be recorded. For example, in the European Union, GDP is negative for the same period. Thus, Jerome Powell and the company will have enough reasons to be optimistic at the March meeting. The long-term economic forecasts may be raised. However, traders will also look forward to Powell's comments on the growth in the yield of 10-year treasuries in the United States, as well as changes in the volume of the asset repurchase program, which currently amounts to about $ 120 billion per month. Many experts believe that with the growth of treasury yields, the QE program will have to be expanded even more, but until today, Powell and his colleagues at the Fed have never talked about such a scenario. In general, I believe that the Fed will be positive today, which can support the US currency. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, the pair's quotes continue the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). Fixing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 161.8% (1.2027) will work in favor of the euro and resume the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2223. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor, so the mood on the traffic was "bearish". The descending trend line confirms this. Fixing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 261.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1566). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On March 16, the ZEW business sentiment index was released in the European Union, which caused more reaction from traders than the much more important US reports on retail trade and industrial production. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - consumer price index (10:00 GMT). US - FOMC decision on the main interest rate (18:00 GMT). US - FOMC accompanying statement (18:00 GMT). US - FOMC economic forecast (18:00 GMT). US - FOMC press conference (18:30 GMT). On March 17, before the results of the Fed meeting begin to be summed up, the European Union will still release a fairly important inflation indicator for February. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the second week in a row, it turns out to be quite aggressive. This time, the "Non-commercial" category of traders reduced 14,000 long contracts on their hands and opened 12,000 new short contracts. It follows that the mood of speculators has become much more "bearish". Consequently, the chances of a further fall in the euro currency quotes are growing. We are much less concerned about other categories of traders since it is speculators who set the tone for trading. EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to sell the pair again at the closing of quotes under the ascending corridor with a target of 1.1873 on the hourly chart. These transactions should now be kept open. I recommend buying the pair when closing above the level of 100.0% (1.1952) on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2021 and 1.2063. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 03/17/21 2021-03-17 Yesterday, the pair moved down, tested the pullback level of 14.6% at 1.3816 (red bold line), the price went up, closing the daily candle at 1.3890. Today, the price will try to continue moving up according to the economic calendar news, it is expected at 12.30, 14.30, 18.00, 18.30 UTC (USD). Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to start moving up from the level of 1.3890 (the close of yesterday's daily candle) to reach the pullback level of 85.4% at 1.3944 (yellow dotted line). If this level is tested, it is possible to continue moving up with the target of 1.4003 upper fractal (daily candle from 03/11 /2021). After reaching this level, it is possible to continue moving up with the target of 1.4217 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis - up - Fibonacci Levels - up - Volumes - up - Candle Analysis - up - Trend Analysis - up - Bollinger Bands - up - Weekly Chart - up General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to start moving up from the level of 1.3890 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the pullback level of 85.4% at 1.3944 (yellow dotted line). If this level is tested, it is possible to continue moving up with the target of 1.4003 upper fractal (daily candle from 03/11/2021). After reaching this level, it is possible to continue moving up with the target of 1.4217 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: the price will try to start moving down from the level of 1.3890 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) to reach the pullback level of 14.6% at 1.3815 (the red dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to move up with the target of 1.3944 – a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 17, 2021 2021-03-17 Technical Market Outlook: After the GBP/USD pair had reversed from the level of 1.4001 and broke below the technical support located at the level of 1.3857 the new low was made at the level of 1.3808. The move down itself was made in three waves, ABC, so it is clearly corrective in nature. Currently, bulls are trying to resume the up trend again by bouncing towards the level of 1.3904 which is an intraday technical resistance for the market. If this level is violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3948 and 1.3965. Please notice the 50 DMA located at the level of 1.3793 might be some kind of support for the price. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4220 WR2 - 1.4106 WR1 - 1.4016 Weekly Pivot - 1.3905 WS1 - 1.3808 WS2 - 1.3702 WS3 - 1.3608 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend despite the face, that is back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 17. COT reports. Euro bears managed to protect resistance at 1.1939, aiming to break through 1.1884 2021-03-17 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: There are clearly less of those who are willing to buy than sell the euro. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. Yesterday afternoon, euro buyers tried to rise above resistance at 1.1939, using good fundamental reports on the European economy - but this was not enough. Once the 1.1939 level was tested from top to bottom, it was surpassed and a buy signal was not generated. It was only possible to take advantage of a false breakout in the 1.1884 area and enter the market expecting a 20-point correction when the euro actively fell during the US session. 
Today everything will be tied to the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy. Therefore, the eurozone inflation report, which is expected in the first half of the day, is unlikely to lead to a serious surge in volatility. And although the market is under the control of sellers, it is not worth writing off euro buyers from their accounts. Most likely, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will not make any changes to the US central bank's policy, which may lead to another rise in bond yields and the renewal of the trend towards strengthening the dollar. We can only speak about the bulls regaining control of the market after forming a breakout and the top-down test of resistance at 1.1939. A good signal for opening long positions can be created at this level, for the purpose of bringing back the bull market. Moving averages, playing on the side of sellers, are just below this level. If the eurozone inflation report turns out to be surprising and is better than economists' forecasts, then you can count on a sharper growth and EUR/USD can return to last week's high in the 1.1989 area, where I recommend taking profit. If the bulls are not active in the 1.1939 area, or the euro is under pressure in the first half of the day, then it would be best to postpone long positions until a false breakout forms in the 1.1884 support area (I analyzed a similar entry point a little higher). I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately on a rebound only from the low of 1.1838, relying on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next major level is seen in the 1.1804 area. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: Bears need to be more proactive, as the upcoming Fed meeting may be a reason to sell the euro. Returning to the area below the 1.1884 level creates a signal for opening short positions. But before selling the euro below 1.1884, I recommend waiting for this area to be tested from the bottom up. A disappointing report on inflation in the eurozone may weigh on the euro in the first half of the day, so after a breakthrough of support at 1.1884, we can count on the renewal of the low at 1.1838, where I recommend taking profit. The next major support area is seen around 1.1803. If the euro grows in the first half of the day, then I recommend not to rush to sell: forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1939 will result in creating the first signal to open short positions. In the absence of activity at this level, it is best to postpone short positions until resistance at 1.1989 has been tested, from which you can open short positions in euros immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction down by 25-30 points within the day. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 9 clearly shows a sharp decline in long positions and a very large increase in short positions, which indicates a continued shift in the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the euro's decline, which we have seen since the end of February. Bond yields in many developed countries continue to sharply rise, which plays in favor of the dollar, as investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the greenback more attractive. The European Central Bank's recent meeting did not change the market, as the decisions made were not critical and did not affect investor sentiment in any way. It is best not to rush into euro purchases, but to wait for lower prices. The growth in the incidence of coronavirus is another factor of medium-term pressure on the euro. The slow vaccination program for the population is pushing the cancellation of quarantine measures to a later date. We can only expect an improvement in the economic outlook for the eurozone once restrictions are lifted and the service sector is restored, which will return the medium-term trend to strengthening EUR/USD. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 222,655 to 207,588, while short non-commercial positions rose from 96,667 to 105,624. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the fourth consecutive week, from 125,988 to 101,964. The weekly closing price was 1.1812 against 1.2048 a week earlier. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bears' attempt to resume the downward trend. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1939 will lead to a new wave of growth for the euro. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1882 will increase the pressure on the pair. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 17. COT reports. Boris Johnson's speech helped bulls regain control of 1.3844 2021-03-17 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Yesterday morning, sellers of the pound showed themselves quite well, but then buyers took control, who managed to return the pound to the area of the day's opening level. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the deals: in the first half of the day, I advised you to sell the pound once it settles below the 1.3844 level, which happened. You can clearly see how after the pound surpasses support at 1.3844, it is tested from the bottom up, which creates an excellent entry point for short positions. Unfortunately, we did not reach the main target in the 1.3783 area, and after falling by 35 points, the market reversed. The bulls were quite active during Prime Minister Boris Johnson's speech and this quickly led to a breakthrough of 1.3844, but I did not wait for a reverse test of this level. As a result: I was forced to miss all the gains during the US session. Small sales at the end of the day from the resistance of 1.3903 made it possible to take another 10 points from the market. 
Today everything will be tied to the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy. The absence of important fundamental statistics on the UK can push the pound in a horizontal channel in the first half of the day. Most likely, Powell will not make any changes to the central bank's policy, which may lead to another rise in bond yields and a renewed trend towards strengthening the dollar against the British pound. For the pair to grow and the downward trend to reverse, the bulls need to rise above resistance at 1.3903, where the upper border of the current downtrend channel from March 12 passes. Being able to settle above this level and testing it from top to bottom creates a point of entry for long positions, in hopes that the pair will recover to resistance at 1.3950, and then return to a high like 1.4000, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls in the first half of the day, then I recommend not to rush into long positions, but to wait until support at 1.3844 has been tested, where you can open longs immediately on a rebound, counting on a recovery of 20-25 points within the day. In case traders are not active in the 1.3844 area and the pound rapidly moves up, then the optimal scenario under this condition is to buy GBP/USD to rebound off the next support at 1.3783, counting on the same upward correction of 30-35 points within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The initial task of the bears is to maintain control over resistance at 1.3903. Forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day creates a new entry point for opening short positions in order to continue the pair's downward correction. In this case, the bears will aim for support at 1.3844, where I recommend taking profits. The lack of fundamental reports may help the bears, but an equally important goal is a breakthrough and test the 1.3844 level from the bottom up, which will create an additional entry point into short positions so it can return to a low like 1.3783, where the lower border of the current descending channel is. Updating the previous day's low is very important for the bears. If they are not active in the 1.3903 resistance area, then it is best not to rush to sell: you can open short positions immediately on a rebound only from the 1.3950 high, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next major resistance area is seen around 1.4000. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 9 revealed a reduction in both short and long commercial positions. This time, the closing of long positions became quite strong, which led to a reduction in the positive delta. The main problem for risky assets, which can be attributed to the pound, is still the growth in the yield of US bonds, which provides serious support to the US dollar. However, in the medium term, buyers of the pound will certainly take advantage of this moment to enter the market at more attractive prices. The beginning of quarantine measures in March will continue to provide the main support for the pound, as well as new measures to help the UK population in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Long non-commercial positions declined from 65,138 to 61,271. At the same time, short non-commercials declined from 29,056 to 27,360, indicating a succeeding decline for the pair. As a result, the non-commercial net position fell to 33,911 from 36,082 a week earlier. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.3821 against 1.3928. The observed downward correction in the pound will attract new buyers. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by pound bulls to seize the initiative. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.3920 area. The fall of the pound is limited by the lower level of the indicator in the area of 1.3844. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 17, 2021 2021-03-17 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has broken out from the consolidation zone and made a new local low at the level of 1.1882. This low was made with a Pin Bar candlestick as well, so there might be a temporary bounce back towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1914. If there is no breakout above this level, then the down move will likely resume lower towards the 1.1835 and below. Moreover, the recent move down from the top located at 1.2349 is the biggest correction since March 3rd 2020, so the price overbalance is done and the market might be changing the trend soon. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2176 WR2 - 1.2081 WR1 - 1.2020 Weekly Pivot - 1.1926 WS1 - 1.1871 WS2 - 1.1786 WS3 - 1.1716 Trading Recommendations: Despite the recent correction to 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up the long term trend on EUR/USD pair remains up on monthly time frame chart, however the weekly time frame chart show the counter-trend corrective cycle is in progress. This corrective cycle has not been completed yet, because the key level for bulls is located at 1.1608. As long as the market trades above this level the up trend is valid and all of the down waves should be used to open long positions. 
Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/JPY on March 17 2021-03-17 EUR/USD Analysis: In the short term, the current trend direction of the European currency since the beginning of the year is set by the descending wave algorithm. The wave has reached the lowest possible level of elongation. The upward movement of the last weeks does not go beyond the correction of the final part (C) of the current wave. Forecast: The most likely scenario today will be the continuation of the price movement in the side corridor between the opposite zones. After the pressure on the support zone, you can expect a reversal and a second rise to the resistance area. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.1960/1.1990 Support: - 1.1900/1.1870 Recommendations: Trading the euro in a flat environment today is risky and can be unprofitable. Purchases within intraday with fractional lots are safer. 
AUD/USD Analysis: The current wave structure in the Australian dollar market is descending, with a reference point on February 25. Since the beginning of this month, an irregular correction has been developing on the chart, which has not yet been completed. Forecast: Today, the sideways mood of the pair's movement is expected to continue. After the likely pressure on the support zone, by the end of the day, the exchange rate is expected to change and a second attempt to grow to the upper border of the flat corridor. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.7790/0.7820 Support: - 0.7720/0.7690 Recommendations: Trading on the Australian dollar market today is possible only within the intraday, with a reduced lot. In the coming sessions, purchases of the instrument will be more promising. 
GBP/JPY Analysis: As a result of the upward momentum, the pair's quotes reached the boundaries of the strong zone of the potential reversal of the weekly TF. The width of this zone exceeds three price figures. Since February 28, the incomplete wave model of the hourly TF has been developing upwards. It is premature to wait for a trend change until its structure is completed. Forecast: In the first half of the day, a short-term decline in the support area is not excluded. Next, you should wait for a repeated re-growth of the rate, with an attempt to break through the calculated resistance. Increased activity is more likely at the end of the day. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 152.00/152.30 Support: - 151.20/150.90 Recommendations: Until there are clear signals of a change in the current upward trend, there are no conditions for selling the pair on the market. It is recommended to track the signals for buying the pair at the end of all downward movements. 
Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted line shows the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time! Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for March 17, 2021 2021-03-17 Yesterday, the pair moved down and tested the 61.8% retracement level - 1.1867 (red dotted line). And then, the price went up and closed the daily candlestick at 1.1901. Today, the market may start moving up. As per the economic calendar, news is expected at 10.00 UTC (euro), and 12.30, 14.30, 18.00, 18.30 UTC (dollar). Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to start moving up in the afternoon from the level of 1.1901 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) to reach 1.1954, the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, it is likely to continue working upward with the target of 1.1989 - the upper fractal (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- Volumes - up;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger bands - up;
- Weekly chart - up.
General conclusion: Today, the price may start moving up with the target of 1.1954, the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). After reaching this level, it is likely to rise further with the target of 1.1989 - upper fractal (daily candlestick from 03/11/2021). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.1901 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the pair will try to continue moving down with the target of 1.1872, the 76.4% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, the lower work may continue with the target of 1.1858, the 85.4% retracement level (blue dotted line). Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 17. COVID-19 incidents grew again in Europe. Euro is trading sideways ahead of the Fed conference today. 2021-03-17  EUR / USD
Euro is trading sideways ahead of the Fed conference today. But there is no doubt that the central bank will keep its monetary policy unchanged, so interest rates will remain at 0.25%. The most important thing though is the tone of the Fed's statement, especially since it is facing a tough challenge: the central bank should assure the people that its super-soft policy has made significant progress in the economy, and convince them that this should continue for quite a long time. Open long positions from 1.1920 to 1.1865, or from 1.1990. Open short positions at 1.1830. 
COVID-19 incidents grew again in Europe. Now, France has 30,000 new cases per day, while Italy has 20,000. Fortunately in Italy, the pace of vaccination has accelerated, thanks to the efforts of the new prime minister Mario Draghi. Approximately 17 million people have been vaccinated, but there is no decisive victory over the virus yet. Forex forecast 03/17/2021 on USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USDX from Sebastian Seliga 2021-03-17 Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USDX ahead of FOMC interest rate decision and press conference.
Author's today's articles: Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Mihail Makarov  -
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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