News : POLITICO California Playbook: It’s RECALL deadline day — FEINSTEIN’s not going anywhere — OSE jumps in — GUZMAN confirmed, SU grilled

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

POLITICO California Playbook: It’s RECALL deadline day — FEINSTEIN’s not going anywhere — OSE jumps in — GUZMAN confirmed, SU grilled — UBER reclassifies U.K. drivers

Mar 17, 2021

By Jeremy B. White, Carla Marinucci, Graph Massara and Richard Tzul

Presented By APCIA

THE BUZZ — Today's deadline to submit signatures to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom suddenly looks anticlimactic.

It will be weeks before we know for certain if Newsom's foes have the 1.5 million verified signatures needed to trigger a recall election. But after weeks of dodging and deflecting questions about the intensifying effort, California's governor has suddenly started treating the campaign as a near-inevitability, enlisting national allies and appealing to his donors. He's spent the last 48 hours hammering campaign talking points: that the recall is a right-wing fever dream driven by people who want to microchip immigrants (as Carla first reported), who fear the "browning of California" and who want to unravel California's progressive policies.

The drive "appears to have the requisite signatures," Newsom conceded on The View on Tuesday. He repeated that prediction multiple times at a later appearance in Alameda, saying it "looks like it's going on the ballot." Those admissions remove any illusion that Newsom has a meaningful chance of sitting out a campaign, even if he can try to erase some signatures.

But none of this should come as a surprise if you've been listening to Newsom's allies in recent weeks. Democrats have gathered for near-daily events extolling Newsom's leadership and assailing the recall. Those wouldn't happen if Team Newsom were confident about the recall falling short. Even Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis told CNN weeks ago that "it does appear" backers had enough signatures.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom attends a news conference at Ruby Bridges Elementary School in Alameda, Calif., Tuesday, March 16, 2021.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom attends a news conference at Ruby Bridges Elementary School in Alameda, Calif., Tuesday, March 16, 2021. | AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

SO NOW WHAT? Don't bust out that ballot-bubbling pen just yet (although you will likely need it for an all-mail election , which could allay the off-year turnout decline). Elections officials have until late April to verify signatures, although an official update due this week should give us a sense of where things stand. Then there's the protracted process of the Department of Finance assessing costs and lawmakers assessing the assessment. By the time Secretary of State Shirley Weber certifies an election and Kounalakis calls it (assuming it qualifies), we're looking at a fall polling date. That could make for an interesting September bill-signing period.

Get ready for mountains of money matching multitudinous candidates. In a sign of things to come, Republican former Rep. Doug Ose officially jumped in on Tuesday and predicted the field would swell to 100. Recall elections are unique events. There are no limits on fundraising or on the number of contenders. In an otherwise barren campaign year, look for a recall to attract enormous national money and outsize attention. The Republican Party is hungry for a blue-state upset. California's mighty Democratic campaign network is mobilizing. POLITICO's Jeremy B. White takes a look at the coming pandemonium.

And all of this will pose an epic task for Newsom and his seasoned campaign team. Carla and POLITICO's David Siders have a deep look at Team Newsom's strategy for defeating the greatest threat of Newsom's often-charmed political career.

NEED A REFRESHER? Carla sat down with our video team to break down how the recall works and what to keep an eye on. (Click below to watch.)

VIDEO: Carla Marinucci breaks down the recall effort in California. | POLITICO

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. One of the major fights of this legislative session kicked off in earnest on Tuesday as lawmakers unveiled legislation to decertify California peace officers for misconduct. A similar bill emerged from last summer's anti-police violence protests but stalled without a floor vote.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Absolutely. I think that's pretty obvious." Sen. Dianne Feinstein on whether she'll serve a full term, muting the impact of Newsom committing to tapping a Black woman as her replacement.

BONUS QOTD: "I have zero expectation the senator's going anywhere." Newsom on the same.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Christine Pelosi @sfpelosi captures a common reaction : "You don't have to like Dianne Feinstein to see that pushing her out of her elected position for a Black woman appointment that you could have made when there was an actual vacancy to win a recall to push you out of your elected position is a very bad look."

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

A message from APCIA:

Millions of Californians rely on auto insurance group discounts to save money on car insurance. The Department of Insurance is threatening discounts that help people afford auto and home insurance. Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara's costly new regulations would eliminate car insurance discounts for millions of Californians, costing hard-working families and individuals hundreds of dollars that they rely on. Californians must speak out and tell Commissioner Lara to save insurance discounts. Take Action

TOP TALKERS

DIANNE AND GAVIN: California politics-world was abuzz Tuesday with Newsom committing to appoint a Black woman to the U.S. Senate should Feinstein step down. A prevailing view: Newsom would not have offered that answer unless he was confident that Feinstein was sticking around. Why else would he alienate an ally?

Neither the governor and the senator seemed to vindicate that point of view on Tuesday. Feinstein emphatically told reporters she's serving out a full term and that Newsom did not mean his comments "the way some people thought." The senator downplayed any talk of a rift, saying she and Newsom remain "very good friends" with a "good and strong" relationship. Newsom said he was simply answering a hypothetical question, telling "The View" that he has "no expectation that she'll be stepping aside " and subsequently reiterating in Alameda that Feinstein "should absolutely fill out the rest of her term," calling her a friend and a mentor.

GIL NOT CONVINCED — "Gavin Newsom just threw Dianne Feinstein under the bus to save his own skin," opines the Sac Bee's Gil Duran: "The announcement's main purpose: to secure Newsom's political base as he faces a likely recall election. He disappointed key allies in January when he declined to replace Kamala Harris with a Black woman. … The only problem: Feinstein has four years left in this term. Of course, progressive Democrats have been pushing her to retire early. Newsom's announcement will only increase the pressure."

ANOTHER WAY OUT? — " A potential overseas posting for Dianne Feinstein's husband renews questions about her future in the Senate," by NYT's Jonathan Martin: "Senior party officials have been blunt in private about what they describe as the senator's diminished acuity and are eager to replace her with a Black woman, of which there are none in the Senate after the departure of Vice President Kamala Harris."

DIRTY LAUNDRY — "French Laundry friend now banned from lobbying California Gov. Gavin Newsom," by the Sac Bee's Sophia Bollag: "The ethics rule changes come as Newsom faces an effort to recall him from office. Although state and local officials have not yet certified that the recall effort collected the required signatures to trigger a special election, Newsom said Tuesday he believes the effort will qualify for the ballot."

GAVINLAND

— "Gavin Newsom and Democrats are dragging Donald Trump into the recall fight," by the LA Times' Phil Willon: "Recall supporters want the spotlight to stay trained on Newsom's actions in office, including his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and are trying to send a message to the mercurial former president: Please stay out of our campaign."

— "Fact check: Is Gavin Newsom right that a recall leader suggested microchipping immigrants?" by the Sac Bee's Sophia Bollag: "Newsom is referencing an April post on Facebook made by Orrin Heatlie, the retired Yolo County Sheriff's sergeant who initiated the recall effort, first reported by Politico in November . In the post, Heatlie wrote 'Microchip Illegal Aliens. It Works! Just Ask Animal Control,' according to an article in The Washington Post."

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

BAY PROGRESS — "San Mateo County moving to orange tier, the first in the Bay Area to get there since last fall," by the SF Chronicle's Matthias Gafni, Aidin Vaziri and Meghan Bobrowsky.

— " Sacramento, 9 other California counties move to red COVID tier; 3 more miss out," by the Sac Bee's Michael McGough: "Lake, Monterey, Riverside, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare and Ventura counties joined Sacramento in upgrading from purple to red. The reopening rule changes take effect Wednesday."

RULES, RULES — " California's huge COVID-19 vaccine expansion relies on trust. Will cheaters stay away?" by the LA Times' Colleen Shalby and Hayley Smith: "There is certainly potential for fraud, as people are being asked to self-attest as to their eligibility. Line-cutting has already been a major issue in California, particularly in cases in which access codes meant for members of underrepresented communities have gotten into the hands of more affluent residents."

— " California opening vaccine 'floodgates' to line-cutting, UC Davis Health chief warns," by the Sac Bee's Tony Bizjak.

— "Latinos keep suffering from failed Bay Area, state COVID plans," by the Mercury News and East Bay Times editorial boards: "Bay Area counties failed to deploy enough Spanish-speaking contact tracers and calls for help from the state went unmet. Meanwhile, Newsom permitted the first premature reopening in May, when Latinos made up 78% of all new cases in the six-county area."

— "Few in Southern California prosecuted for refusing to comply with coronavirus laws," by the OC Register's by Josh Cain, Sean Emery and Emily Rasmussen: "Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco's refusal to enforce the health orders has drawn national attention, with the sheriff accusing Gov. Gavin Newsom of trying to strong-arm counties into enforcing the regulations."

— "Orange County crosses vaccine milestone: 1 million doses given," by the OC Register's Alicia Robinson.

— "Northern California's largest school district is reopening campuses. How they did it," by the Sac Bee's Sawsan Morrar.

— "San Fernando Valley family raising awareness after undocumented mother is refused COVID-19 vaccine," by KABC's Anabel Munoz.

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THE 46TH

TALE OF 2 NOMINEES: SU SCRUTINIZED... 'Not a model to emulate': Republicans grill Su over California leadership, by POLITICO's Eleanor Mueller: Senate Republicans on Tuesday grilled President Joe Biden's nominee for deputy Labor secretary, Julie Su, on her leadership of California's Labor Department, zeroing in on large-scale unemployment insurance fraud and employee classification legislation that was later partially overturned by California voters.

… AND GUZMAN GETS THE NOD — Guzman confirmed to head struggling SBA, taking reins of key vehicle for pandemic relief, by POLITICO's Zachary Warmbrodt: Congress thrust the small agency into the spotlight last year by making it the key vehicle for Covid-19 relief. Democrats gave it even more responsibilities and funding in the $1.9 trillion economic relief package that President Joe Biden signed into law last week.

— "Democrats loved Katie Porter when she bashed Trump. Now she is making them squirm," by the LA Times' Jennifer Haberkorn: "Her sharp-elbowed maneuvering and willingness to publicly confront party leaders like Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) and Los Angeles Rep. Maxine Waters underscored the brash determination that made Porter the surprise national standout of California's 2018 House freshman class — and a strong contender for the U.S. Senate someday. But … Porter's tendency to ruffle feathers could cost her the allies she will need in the future in order to get legislation approved."

— McCarthy decries 'political stunt' after troops visit lawmaker's office, by POLITICO's Quint Forgey.

MADAM VP

— "Harris uses UN speech to champion women's role in democracy," by CNN's Jasmine Wright: "Those close to Harris say foreign policy and national security are key areas she wants to develop in her portfolio, and she's taken steps to beef up her experience since taking office, building her own relationships with foreign leaders from the halls of the White House through phone calls."

— "'The View': Meghan McCain Blames Kamala Harris for Vaccine Hesitancy," by the Wrap's Andrea Towers.

CAMPAIGN MODE

ANOTHER CHALLENGER— "Republican Doug Ose says he'll run against Gavin Newsom if recall qualifies," by the Sac Bee's Lara Korte: "Ose represented California's third congressional district, which covered most of Sacramento, from 1999 to 2005. He had previously thought about running for governor in 2018, but backed out early in the race. Most recently, he has been a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, though he denounced the Jan. 6 riots and said the party needed to 'move on' from Trump's loss."

A message from APCIA:

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— "Bargain Hunters Score in San Francisco as Cheaper Rents Linger," by Bloomberg's John Gittelsohn and Noah Buhayar: "After an exodus of residents during the pandemic, San Francisco is starting to see people trickle back as the economy gradually reopens. They're moving into buildings that had lost tenants for months, pushing rents higher for the first time since the lockdowns took hold last spring."

— "California is about to get $151 billion in federal aid — but it still has billions unspent," by Sac Bee's David Lightman: "Most of last year's still-unused money was allocated to help unemployed people, provide Paycheck Protection Program loans, or help Medi-Cal, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. State officials, and supporters of the aid plans, say that most of the money was not meant to be spent right away."

WELL-EQUIPPED — "California sees sharp spike in gun ownership. Why new buyers are arming themselves ," by the Sac Bee's Ryan Sabalow: "About 1.17 million new guns were registered in California in 2020, and as many as 369,000 people went through the state's firearms background check process for the first time, according to newly released state data filed in federal court. The numbers are the latest evidence that Californians went on a gun-buying spree last year."

— "California has help for parents who can't afford child care. Here's how to find it ," by the Sac Bee's Kim Bojórquez: "Currently, the state offers subsidized child care and preschool for 415,000 children through various programs, according to a Legislative Analyst's Office report."

SILICON VALLEYLAND

HUGE CHANGE — "In First, Uber Agrees to Classify British Drivers as 'Workers,'" by the NYT's Adam Satariano: "Uber had fought off past labor regulations by arguing that it acts only as a technology platform that connects drivers and passengers. But the justices for Britain's Supreme Court ruled unanimously that Uber behaves more like an employer by setting rates, assigning rides and requiring drivers to follow certain traffic routes."

PASS GO AND COLLECT $200 — The government's lawyers saw a Google monopoly coming. Their bosses refused to sue, by POLITICO's Leah Nylen: Hundreds of pages of unreleased internal FTC memos, obtained by POLITICO, show for the first time that the agency's commissioners dismissed substantial evidence to support the monopoly claim, including taking the rare step of rejecting a recommendation by staff investigators to sue.

— "Facebook to Launch Self-Publishing Platform for Writers, Journalists to Monetize Content," by Variety's Todd Spangler.

BOOM TIMES — "PayPal Sees No Letup for Online Shopping Even With Reopenings," by Bloomberg's Jennifer Surane.

— "Meet South L.A.'s young stock investors, eager to build wealth in their community," by the LA Times' Jackeline Luna and Samantha Masunaga: "In South L.A., some got into investing because they hope to buy a home. Several said their main motivation was to create generational wealth for their families and try to close the wealth gap between Black and Latino households and white households that exists in part because of unequal exposure to the stock market."

— "Conservatives build alternate digital universe," by Axios' Sara Fischer: "Gab, the social network commonly used by conservatives that bills itself as a free speech platform, said recently that it's working on its own version of Clubhouse, the audio-first social app."

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HOLLYWOODLAND

ICYMI — "Golden Globes: HFPA Promises 13 Percent Black Membership By Next Ceremony," by the Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg.

RELATED — " HFPA Rejected Press Conferences for Black-Led Projects Like 'Bridgerton,' Insiders Say (Exclusive)," by the Wrap's Beatrice Verhoeven and Sharon Waxman.

MIXTAPE

SHHH — "No screaming on California roller coasters and thrill rides, theme park association recommends," by the OC Register's Brady MacDonald.

— " Two dead after fireworks spark massive explosion at Ontario house," by the LA Times' Richard Winton and Faith E. Pinho.

— "LeBron James to become part-owner of Boston Red Sox," by USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt.

— " He was freed after 19 years in prison for a murder he didn't commit. Then came the COVID lockdown," by the SF Chronicle's Raheem Hosseini.

— "They ordered the Bay Area to shut down. Then came the hard part," by the SF Chronicle's Erin Allday.

— "Popular broadcaster Amy Gutierrez hired by Giants after NBC Sports laid her off," by the SF Chronicle's Ann Killion.

— "An 'economic windfall': Berkeley expects to get $68M in federal COVID-19 aid," by Berkeleyside's Frances Dinkelspiel

— "False racism allegations become political weapon against Elk Grove's Sikh mayor," by the Sac Bee's Gil Duran.

A message from APCIA:

Individuals just like you save money by buying their auto insurance through groups like unions, clubs, retailers, group memberships, and other associations. These discount programs are called 'affinity group' programs, and California voters approved them at the ballot years ago. Insurance Commissioner Lara is putting these group discounts in jeopardy. While his proposal is well-intentioned, it would eliminate discount programs that save Californians' money.

If insurance companies and groups are restricted or limited from offering discount programs, insurance costs would skyrocket across the state. These new regulations would affect health care workers, teachers, firefighters, veterans, seniors, and other consumers who rely on insurance discounts.

Far too many Californians know the difference that a few hundred dollars can make. These regulations would strip millions of people from savings that they depend on.

Please, tell Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara to stand up for Californians and protect our discounts.

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