Tuesday, February 16, 2021

🤓 Inflation is Here, Just Not Where You’d Expect

Good morning. During the last financial crisis, central banks started slashing interest rates to..
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. During the last financial crisis, central banks started slashing interest rates to zero percent and added in bond-buying programs to support the economy. Those tools were brought back within the space of just a few weeks last year during the pandemic. Last time, there were fears of inflation that didn't materialize.

Many are saying the same thing today. And it's true: The consumer price index, or CPI, is still showing inflation at just 2 percent per year. However, when the stock market is up over 15 percent during a pandemic, it's clear some of the inflation has made its way to asset prices. That's even clearer when looking at home prices, which have now finally beat their 2005 peak, thanks to a 14.9 percent rise in the past year. If that's where the money printing is going, it makes sense why many are buying homes and stocks right now, and why that trend is likely to continue.


Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 31,458.40 +0.09%
S&P 3,934.83 +0.47%
NASDAQ 14,095.47 +0.50%
*As of market close
Stocks were closed on Monday, in observation of President's Day.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Pick and Shovel Play Is the Clear Winner of the Tech Gold Rush
It's almost a cliché at this point, but the winner in any gold rush is often the supplier of picks and shovels, and not someone or some company doing the actual gold mining.

In the tech space today, with its intense competition and drive to improve products and lower prices, a few companies that supply entire industries are the biggest potential winners from today's trends.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP)
James Winnefeld, a director at Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP), recently picked up 1,000 more shares. The buy increased his stake by over 15 percent, and came to a total cost of just under $45,000.

Over the past three years, insiders have generally been sellers, led by members of both the Molson and Coors families. Only in the past six months have some insiders looked to pick up shares.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Marvell Technology Group (MRVL)
Expecting the semiconductor industry to take a breather after its big run? Think again. At least one trader sees a massive move higher.

The August $80 call options on Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) tell the story. Over 9,200 contracts traded from a prior open interest of 307, a 30-fold rise in volume on the trade. The trade, expiring in 185 days, will move in-the-money if shares rally another 48 percent from their current price near $44.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Freezing Weather in Texas Hits Oil Production, Raising Prices

A freeze over the state of Texas has impacted oil production of nearly 1 million barrels per day. That's helped push oil prices back to the low $60 range. Time will tell if the rally holds, as energy use remains down over the past year and fossil fuel alternatives are on the rise. Even with those trends, supply is down and demand is rising, so don't bet on a reversal in oil just yet.
Uber Proposes Gig Work Standards in the European Union

The gig economy remains alive and well. But with many jurisdictions arguing over a gig employee versus a salaried employee, Uber is working to ensure its business model can thrive. Its latest move is distributing a white paper to European policymakers for platform work—a move that would expand current gig benefits but without providing the full range available to a full-time employee.
Fidelity Sued Over Retail Trading Lockdown

While Robinhood has gotten the most flack for the retail trading frenzy last month, other brokerages also prevented trades in some popular names. One trader with Fidelity was unable to sell shares of Nokia (NOK) and AMC Entertainment (AMC), leading to lost returns of up to $830,000. No doubt more stories of this nature are out there.
Japan's Nikkei Index Tops 30,000 For the First Time Since 1990

In the 1980s, Japan reigned supreme thanks to rising asset values, including its stock market, the Nikkei. But the massive bubble burst. Now, 30 years later, the index is hitting a level of 30,000 once again. The move comes as corporate earnings are rising thanks to a global economic rebound and a strong demand for tech.
Bitcoin Closes in On $50,000

Bitcoin prices hit a peak of $49,716 over the weekend. The move higher is likely in response to expected demand increases from companies that are likely to acquire the cryptocurrency in the months ahead. With Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and Mastercard (MA) opening up the cryptocurrency to investors in the banking and credit card market, the continued rise in institutional demand looks likely.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
ILMN 11.866%
MHK 5.992%
TER 5.458%
MOS 5.099%
DISCA 4.94%
BOTTOM
DVA 7.359%
NWL 7.14%
DLR 3.287%
UAA 2.697%
RL 2.415%

Quote of the Day
We expect another uptick in retail activity with another round of stimulus, though the level will likely depend on the type of stimulus (broad based or targeted), the market backdrop at the time, as well as any potential regulatory changes discussed over the coming weeks.
- An analysis from Bank of America on why retail traders are here to stay, and why some stocks may see increased volatility in the coming weeks as a new wave of stimulus payments hits the market.

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