| Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 16, 2021 2021-02-16 Yesterday's market activity was only noticed during the Asian session, as traders were not particularly active during the rest of the time. The economic calendar included Europe's industrial production data, where the decline was predicted to slow down from -0.6% to -0.3%, however, it accelerated by -0.8%. It should be recalled that industrial production in the EU has been deteriorating for 26 months. The market did not react to the negative statistics in Europe, which is possibly due to the decline in trading volumes in the market caused by the public holiday in the US, in celebration of President's Day. The EUR/USD pair approached the resistance area of 1.2150 again, where a reduction in the volume of short positions occured. The existing convergence of the price with the level was no exception in the market, which resulted in a slowdown and a pullback. Despite the pound's overbought status, its position continues to strengthen in the market, updating the high of the medium-term trend. The convergence of the price with the psychological level of 1.4000 may lower the volume of long positions. 
Trading recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for February 16, 2021 Today, the second estimate of Europe's GDP for the fourth quarter will be published, where the pace of economic decline is expected to rise from -4.3% to -5.1%. In this case, the ongoing economic downturn may put pressure on the European currency. Just like the United States, the UK is not expected to release important statistics. If we analyze the current trading chart of the EUR/USD, a primary pullback can be seen from the resistance area of 1.2150, where the quote may decline to the range of 1.2110-1.2100. The main round of euro weakening will come after the price is kept below 1.2080, with the prospect of moving to 1.2000-1.1950. Traders will consider an alternative scenario of the market development if the price is held above 1.2160 level in the H4 time frame. In this case, we may talk about the restoration of the quote relative to the corrective move. 
As for the current trading chart of the GBP/USD, it can be seen that the quote has already approached the area of the psychological level of 1.3950/1.4000/1.4050, which negatively affects the volume of long positions. We can assume that a correction may occur in the market, given the pound's overbought status and strong resistance level. 
Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on February 16, 2021 2021-02-16 At yesterday's trading, there was a demand for risky assets. Although it was not so pronounced, the US dollar was not attractive as a safe-haven currency. Market participants are optimistic about the large-scale vaccination against the COVID-19 pandemic, and also hope that the $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package adopted in the United States to restore and support the world's leading economy will become an effective tool and give the desired result. Meanwhile, the coronavirus infection, which truly has no borders, has manifested itself in a new form. And again in the UK, where there is a new strain of COVID-19, which is called B1525. We knew earlier that the virus has no borders, and we were convinced of this once again using the example of a new strain of an insidious epidemic. In addition to the UK, a new strain of coronavirus B1525 has been detected in France, Denmark, the United States, Australia, Canada, Jordan, and Nigeria. Just think about the extent of the global reach. The new strain has a wide range of mutations, so there is almost no doubt that it should be continued, and this strain is far from the last. Unfortunately. If we turn to the events that are scheduled for today in the economic calendar, it should be noted that on February 16, macroeconomic statistics from Europe will prevail. So, at 11:00 London, a whole block of macroeconomic statistics will arrive, namely, the revised data on GDP in the eurozone for the fourth quarter of last year, the change in the number of employees in the euro area, as well as the index of business sentiment from the ZEW institute for the eurozone and Germany. From the US, we can only distinguish the index of activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the publication of which is scheduled for 14:30 (London time). Daily 
Turning to the analysis of the price charts of the main currency pair of the Forex market, it is worth noting that there were virtually no changes on the daily chart. Following the results of yesterday's trading, a small doji candle appeared on this timeframe, with the upper shadow slightly longer than the lower one. As you can see, the attempts of the euro bulls to raise the rate up are limited by the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator. So at the moment of writing, the players to increase the rate are storming this obstacle. If today's trading closes above Kijun, the next targets at the top will be the brown resistance level of 1.2189, and then the important mark of 1.2200 and the upper limit of the daily cloud, which passes in the area of 1.2220. For the bearish sentiment to prevail in the pair, it is necessary to break the support level of 1.2081, slightly above which, at 1.2087, the Kijun line passes. H4 
On the four-hour chart, consolidation is observed, after which, as a rule, there is a directed impulse in one of the sides. Since the euro/dollar is trading above the used moving averages (200 EMA, 89 EMA, and 50 MA), it is more likely that the pair will head north. On the other hand, the return of the quote under the indicated moving averages with consolidation under them will give a signal of a high probability of a downward scenario. If we identify trading recommendations for today, then we should consider buying after a decline in the price zone of 1.2110-1.2080, where the designated moving averages are located. There is a high probability that these indicators will provide the pair with strong enough support and turn the course up. An alternative scenario is that the price will go under the support level of 1.2080 and consolidate below, after which, on a pullback to the price zone of 1.2080-1.2100, it is already worth preparing for sales of the EUR/USD pair. Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 16 2021-02-16 EUR/USD  Any important changes were not observed. On Monday, the euro stayed in a small range and maintained its position below the resistance levels of 1.2150-70 (weekly short-term trend + historical level). In turn, the levels of the daily Ichimoku cross (1.2122 - 1.2087 - 1.2051-56), which is strengthened by the weekly Fibo Kijun (1.2064), provide support, attraction and influence. After breaking through the resistances, the price will move to the next pivot point: the upper border of the daily cloud (1.2222) and the target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud (1.2219-48).  The favor in the smaller time frames is still on the bulls' side, which is seen above the key levels 1.2130-23 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend). Today, the resistances of the classic pivot levels 1.2158 (R2) and 1.2170 (R3) coincide with the resistances (1.2150-70) in the upper time frame. As a result, their strength and values are joined. If the key supports (1.2130-23) in the H1 chart breaks down, the current situation will change. Here, the classic pivot levels 1.2114 (S1) - 1.2102 (S2) - 1.2086 (S3) will serve as intraday supports. GBP/USD  The resistance of the initial weekly target for the breakdown of the Ichimoku cloud (1.3904) was tested, however, the bulls failed to close above it. Today, the interaction process remains and a new maximum of movement is indicated again. If the resistance target will be broken, it will open the way to the level of 1.4181. Currently, the support in the higher time frames is quite deep (1.3758 area), so it may not be important.  The bulls continue to take the initiative. In this case, it is fair to note the upward targets set at 1.3959 (R2) and 1.3999 (R3). However, there was a correctional decline for the pair during the last few hours. For this movement, we can consider the key support levels in the H1 chart located at 1.3889 (central pivot level) and 1.3843 (weekly long-term trend). If the pair breaks down and consolidates under, the bears can take the advantage. *** The following methods are used in the technical analysis of the situation: Higher time frames – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 – Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend) Silver to soar in the markets soon 2021-02-16 
Crescat Capital projects silver to soar soon, as supply will fall, all while demand remains the same. "Silver, having a price below $ 30 an ounce, is the most attractive macroeconomic asset in the world today," Otavio Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital said. He added that it is quite difficult to sell gold and silver at the moment, since governments and central banks around the world continue to flood financial markets with unprecedented stimulus measures. Costa explained that all this liquidity will ultimately lead to higher inflationary pressures. "Investors are already starting to see inflation, and that's why I like hard assets so much," Costa said. "Gold looks very cheap, but silver looks even cheaper," he added. 
To add to that, according to Costa, as silver continues to rise as a result of changing supply and demand fundamentals, miners and producers will remain attractive for investment. Although miners have not poured much new capital into the research, Costa pointed out that they are increasing their dividends by returning money to investors, leveling their balance sheets. And with this, silver could storm the markets, and it could last for years. Trading idea for silver 2021-02-16 As expected, silver entered a profitable sell zone, after falsely breaking out of the correction. To those who did not open short positions yet, there is an opportunity to do so today:  In fact, it also involves very ambitious target levels:  So, from the current prices and within the framework of the large ABC wave structure, limit can be set at $ 29.0 - $29.5. Then, take profit as soon as the quote breaks through $25.8, $ 24.0 and $ 21.5. Of course, traders still need to monitor the risks to avoid losing money. This market is very precarious, but also very profitable provided that the approach used is correct. The strategy above follows "Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods. Good luck! GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 16 (analysis of morning trades) 2021-02-16 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3909 and recommended actions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry point. The optimal scenario for buying the pound was a downward correction to the area of 1.3909, which happened. The formation of a false breakout and a return to this range indicated the presence of a large buyer in the market, which did not allow the bears to retest the area of 1.3909 at the next attempt to break below this range. This scenario became an additional signal for building up long positions to form a new upward wave to the base of the 40th figure. 
The fact that the buyers coped with their task and did not let the pair fall below 1.3909 does not mean that the market is under their full control. If we compare the charts, then from a technical point of view, nothing has changed compared to the morning forecast. The key task of the pound buyers for the second half of the day will be to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3954, near which the entire Asian upward movement stopped today. A test of this level from top to bottom will form an additional signal to open long positions in the continuation of the upward trend, which will easily open a direct road to the area of the new annual maximum of 1.3993, where I recommend taking the profits. A more distant target will be the level of 1.4036, however, you can't do without a new batch of good fundamental statistics. In the case of a downward correction of GBP/USD today in the second half of the day against the background of the lack of important reports on the US economy, it is best not to rush to buy, but to wait for the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.3909 (as it was in the first half of the day). There are also moving averages playing on the side of the bulls. If there is no activity on the part of buyers, I recommend waiting for the test of the minimum of 1.3862 and buying the pound from there for a rebound with the aim of an upward correction of 20-30 points within the day. The lower limit of the current upward trend also passes there. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to: Now, only the formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.3954, which I did not wait for in the first half of the day, will return the pressure on the pair and lead to the formation of a small downward correction. An equally important task for the bears is to regain control over the support of 1.3909, which was not possible during the European session. Only a break and a test of this level from the bottom up will form an entry point into short positions to reduce the GBP/USD to the area of the minimum of 1.3862, where I recommend taking the profits. If the pair grows in the second half of the day and there is no activity from the bears in the resistance area of 1.3954, I recommend that you do not rush to sell, but wait for the update of the new annual high of 1.3993. You can open short positions from there immediately on a rebound with the aim of a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen only in the area of 1.4036. 
Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for February 9 recorded a sharp increase in long non-commercial positions and a reduction in short ones. This led to a fairly large increase in the positive delta. The bulls are making their way to new highs taking advantage of the good news on vaccination in the UK. Last week's report on UK GDP led only to a larger build-up of long positions in the expectation of a strong economic recovery in early 2021. Long non-profit positions rose from the level of 53,658 to the level of 60,513. At the same time, the short non-profit declined from the level of 44,042 to the level of 39,395, which only strengthened the bullish sentiment. As a result, the non-profit net position rose to 21,118, up from 9,616 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3745 against 1.3675. The fact that the bulls held their positions on such high volatility within the week once again suggests that the pair is set to overcome the annual highs and quickly return to the area of the 40th figure. I recommend betting on further strengthening of the pound. As the quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year, demand for the pound will only increase. In March, we expect news about the support of the population and the UK labor market, which also pushes the pound up now. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the continued growth of the pound. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands Only a break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3954 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline, the pair will be supported by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3895. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
EUR/USD: plan for the US session on February 16 (analysis of morning trades) 2021-02-16 To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2149 and recommended acting on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. Given that the GDP of the eurozone was slightly better than economists' forecasts, and the index of sentiment in the business environment of Germany and the eurozone increased significantly – this led to the strengthening of the European currency and the breakdown of the resistance of 1.2149. In fairness, it is worth noting that we did not get a normal consolidation and test of the level of 1.2149 from top to bottom, since this area was very smeared, so I did not manage to enter long positions, as planned in the morning forecast. 
As long as the trade is conducted above the resistance of 1.2149, we can expect the euro to continue to grow within the day. The test of the level of 1.2149 from top to bottom during the US session forms an excellent point for opening long positions in the continuation of the upward trend. In this case, you can count on the growth of EUR/USD in the area of a new high of 1.2187, where I recommend fixing the profit. The more distant target of the bulls will be the resistance of 1.2220. The speeches of the representatives of the Federal Reserve System are unlikely to have a serious impact on the market, however, there are no other fundamental statistics, so we will only have to keep an eye on this. If in the second half of the day we do not see any active actions on the part of buyers, and the pair slowly returns to the level of 1.2149, then only the formation of a false breakdown will form a new entry point into long positions in the expectation of continuing the upward trend. If there is no activity of buyers, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the minimum in the area of 1.2110, from where you can buy the euro immediately on the rebound with the expectation of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: The bears did not particularly rest in the resistance area of 1.2149, which was tested for strength almost all last week. Now trading is conducted above this range and the initial task of sellers is to return EUR/USD to this level, which will seriously affect the upward trend that we observed today in the first half of the day. However, only a bottom-up test of the level of 1.2149 forms a signal to enter the market with the main target of returning to the support area of 1.2110, from the breakdown of which the further direction of the pair will depend. The reversal of the upward trend will occur only after the breakout of the level of 1.2110, which will quickly push EUR/USD to a minimum in the area of 1.2069, where I recommend taking the profits. If during the US session we will continue to observe the upward trend of the euro, it is best to postpone short positions until the test of a new high of 1.2187, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on the rebound to reduce by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2220. 
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 9 recorded an increase in short and long positions, which reflects the current situation. The equality of buyers and sellers characterizes the entire past week when the pair spent in a side channel. It is important to note that any adequate decline in the EUR/USD pair has always been accompanied by quick purchases, and the fact that the US dollar continues to be less in demand among investors has already been repeatedly mentioned. Therefore, I believe that the more correct approach to the market is to buy the European currency. The only problem for the euro remains the lack of guidance from the European Central Bank and the risk of verbal interventions that limit the upward potential. However, with each significant downward correction of the pair, the demand for the euro will only increase. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions rose from the level of 216,887 to 220,943, while short non-profit positions rose from the level of 79,884 to the level of 80,721. As a result, the total non-profit net position increased after last week's decline to the level of 140,222 from the level of 137,003. The weekly closing price was 1.2052 against 1.2067 a week earlier. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to resume the upward trend. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In the case of a decline in the pair, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2220 will act as support. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
EUR/USD analysis for February 16 2021 - Exhasuted buyers and potential for drop towards 1.2085 2021-02-16 Germany February ZEW survey current situation -67.2 vs -66.5 expected Prior -66.4 - Expectations 71.2 vs 59.5 expected
- Prior 61.8
- Eurozone expectations 69.6
- Prior 58.3
Investor sentiment shows that current conditions remain rather tepid for the most part but there is plenty of optimism surrounding the outlook as the vaccine rollout starts to take shape across the Eurozone. The jump in the expectations reading is the highest since September last year and reaffirms that the market remains more forward-looking when viewing the German and euro area economies at this point in time. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that the buyers got exhausted today and the downside rotation would be probably to correct strong upside movement from this morning. Key Levels Resistance: 1,2155 Support level: 1,2085 Analysis of Gold for February 16,.2021 - Breakout of symmetrical triangle pattern and potential for test of $1.785 2021-02-16 The reflation narrative is still the key theme to watch in the market this week and bond investors are making that loud and clear today. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that Gold did break the symmetrical triangle continuation pattern as like I expected yesterday. Key Levels Resistance: $1,815 Support level: $1,784
Author's today's articles: Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Zhizhko Nadezhda  Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
Subscription's options management Theme's:
Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets
Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
Edit data of subscription settings
Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely,
Analysts Service | If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the
InstaForex Toll free numbers right now:
|  | InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. InstaForex Group members include regulated companies in Europe, Russia and British Virgin Islands. This letter may contain personal information for access to your InstaForex trading account, so for the purpose of safety it is recommended to delete this data from the history. If you have received this letter by mistake, please contact InstaForex Customer Relations Department. |
No comments:
Post a Comment