| Analisa Pergerakan Harga Mingguan Pasangan Mata Uang Utama USD/CHF Selasa 16 Februari 2021. 2021-02-16 
Dengan adanya terdeteksi penyimpangan yang tersembunyi antara pergerakan harga mata uang utama USD/CHF dengan Stochastic Oscillator di chart mingguannya maka telah terkonfirmasi bila USD/CHF dalam waktu dekat akan menguji level dibawah harganya saat ini yaitu level 0.8757 selama tidak ada pergerakan naik retrace keatas yang melebihi level 0.9045 karena bila level ini berhasil ditembus maka besar kemungkinan skenario penurunan yang telah dijabarkan sebelumnya akan batal dengan sendirinya.(Disclaimer) GBP/USD. February 16. COT report. The pound continues to break records and rush to the 40th figure. 2021-02-16 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair continue the growth process and have made a consolidation above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895). Thus, the next target is the level of 1.3976, which is very close to the 40th figure. The upward trend corridor keeps the current traders' sentiment "bullish". However, the closing of the pair's exchange rate under it will work in favor of the US currency, and some fall in the direction of the levels of 1.3820 and 1.3744. Although no important information came from Britain and the United States on Monday, bull traders continued to be active in the foreign exchange market, which caused a new rise in the pound. The latest positive news from the UK was the GDP report, which unexpectedly exceeded the wildest expectations for many. However, several days have passed since then, and the British dollar is still growing, although the information background is very weak at the beginning of the new week. Also, the euro/dollar pair just stands still, which works out the lack of information background. But the Briton continues to trade on emotions. In theory, tomorrow's UK inflation report could mislead. The consumer price index is expected to decline in January, and if the actual value is even lower than expected, then the British dollar may start to fall. But in general, I do not yet see why the British dollar should start a downward trend. In any case, there is now an upward trend corridor. As long as the pair does not leave it, it makes no sense to wait for a new trend. Since there is no news of the global plan now either in Britain or in the United States, it is very difficult to even imagine what should happen for the growth of the pound to stop. Most likely, it will stop only when bull traders get enough of buying and stop believing in the further growth of the British dollar. GBP/USD – 4H 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 1.3850, performed a slight drop, but after the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator, it consolidated above the level of 1.3850 and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977). The closing of the pair's exchange rate above the level of 161.8% will increase the chances of continuing growth in the direction of the level of 1.4126. GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Monday, the US and UK calendars were completely blank, so there was no background information on that day. The Briton, however, did not care, it continued the process of growth. The economic calendar for the US and the UK: On February 16, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States are again empty. Thus, the influence of the information background will be absent today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report of February 9 on the British pound was quite interesting and noteworthy. In recent weeks, speculators have not made serious steps in the direction of strengthening the "bullish" mood. However, all this time, the pound was still growing. The latest COT report showed an increase in the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders by 6,465 units. At the same time, speculators got rid of 4,660 short contracts. Thus, the Briton grew even without increasing long contracts from speculators, now it has an even greater chance of continuing growth. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3895 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3976. Now, these positions can be maintained until the closing of quotes under the trend corridor. It is recommended to sell the pound when closing under the trend corridor with the targets of 1.3820 and 1.3744. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. February 16. COT report. An unsuccessful start to the vaccination process in the EU reduces the credibility of the government. 2021-02-16 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On February 15, the EUR/USD pair made an increase to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2151) and a new rebound from it. Thus, the pair also performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and may continue the process of falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2104). Closing the pair's rate under the upward trend corridor will significantly increase the probability of a further fall of the pair. Closing quotes above the level of 50.0% will work in favor of further growth of the euro currency in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2197). Meanwhile, new dissatisfaction with the government is brewing in the European Union. Many believe that the leaders of the European Union made a mistake with the timing of orders of vaccines against COVID, and with the volumes, and with the methods of distribution and orders. The European Union began placing orders for vaccines in November, while Japan and the United Kingdom - in the summer of 2020. The EU has decided to buy vaccines for all 27 countries together and then distribute them independently. Many experts say that it would be much more efficient if each country formed its orders. At first, this would lead to increased competition and increased costs, but in the future, it would encourage the creation of vaccines in large volumes. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, is personally blamed for the failure. There is also the matter of money. The pandemic consumes billions of euro currencies every week. If the EU ordered vaccines not only from two manufacturers but from all six, it would have to spend about 29 billion euros (for two-thirds of the population of the entire European Union). However, in this case, there would be no shortage of vaccine, there would be no delays in deliveries, and various delays that cost money and human lives. Thus, in some countries that are now suffering because of the mistakes of the European Commission, displeasure is beginning to grow. Let me remind you that once upon a time, the Brexit process began with such displeasure. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a close above the descending trend line, so the mood of traders changed to "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2204. The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the European currency and increased the chances of continued growth. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, but it turned out to be false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair has performed a reversal in favor of the EU currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 15, the European Union released a report on changes in industrial production, which failed to force traders to trade more actively. Trading on Monday was very sluggish. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - index of business sentiment ZEW economic sentiment (10:00 GMT). EU - change in the volume of GDP (10:00 GMT). On February 16, the report on the change in the volume of GDP in the European Union in the fourth quarter will be released. And this report can move the euro/dollar pair. In recent days, the movement is very weak. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, another COT report was released. And it turned out to be much calmer than the previous one. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, which I consider the most important, opened 4,722 long contracts and got rid of 2,606 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators again became more "bullish". Accordingly, the prospects of the European currency are improving again after the report of a week ago, when speculators got rid of 23 thousand long contracts and many believed that this upward trend would be completed. However, I warned that this behavior of large players may be an accident. It is still too early to talk about the end of the upward trend. In total, during the last reporting week, all categories of players closed approximately 11 thousand contract positions. Consequently, interest in the euro currency has decreased slightly. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the euro currency with the targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197 on the hourly chart when closing quotes above the descending trend line on the 4-hour chart. The first goal was achieved. I recommend new purchases of the euro at the close above the level of 1.2151. I recommend selling when closing quotes under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2104 and 1.2046. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 16. COT reports. Euro buyers are serious, ready to break the 1.2149 high 2021-02-16 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Yesterday, once again, no signals were generated for entering the market due to low volatility. A fundamental report on the European economy did not have a significant impact on the pair. The afternoon also passed in a narrow horizontal channel, which did not lead to renewing any of the levels that I mentioned in my forecasts. But despite this alignment of forces, the market remains on the buyer's side, who can count on the euro's succeeding growth in the short term. Before talking about the prospects for the EUR/USD movement, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. The COT report for February 9 revealed an increase in short and long positions, which reflects the current situation. The equality of buyers and sellers clearly characterizes the entirety of last week, which is where the pair was, in a horizontal channel. It is important to note that any adequate decline in the EUR/USD pair has always been accompanied by quick buys, and the fact that the US dollar continues to be less and less in demand among investors has already been mentioned many times. Therefore, I think a more correct approach to the market is to buy the euro. The only problem for the euro is the lack of guidance from the European Central Bank and the risk of verbal intervention, which limits the growth potential. However, the demand for the euro will only increase with each significant downward correction in the pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 216,887 to 220,943, while short non-commercial positions rose from 79,884 to 80,721. As a result, the total non-commercial net position rose after last week's decline to 140,222 from 137,003. The weekly closing price was 1.2052 against 1.2067 a week earlier. 
It is necessary to pay attention to today's important reports on the GDP of the eurozone, as well as to the data on the labor market for the end of last year. The eurozone economy is expected to contract in the fourth quarter of 2020, but if the actual data turns out to be better than economists forecasts, we can count on the succeeding growth of the euro. The eurozone finance ministers will host a meeting today, at which the topic of additional financing may be discussed. If EUR/USD grows in the first half of the day, buyers will focus on getting the pair to settle above the resistance of 1.2149. Testing this area from top to bottom creates an excellent signal to open long positions in euros in order to rise to a high of 1.2187, where I recommend taking profits. Bulls will still aim for resistance at 1.2220. The euro might be under pressure if buyers are not active during the European session. In this case, the bulls will need to focus on protecting support at 1.2110, just above which the moving averages pass. Forming a false breakout there creates a good entry point into long positions as we expect an upward trend. If buyers are not active at this level, I recommend holding back from long positions until the low of 1.2069 has been tested, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: I recommend opening short positions against the upward trend this morning in the event of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2149, which creates a signal to sell the euro. Returning to the area under 1.2149 and testing it from the bottom up creates a convenient point for entering the market. A bad report on the state of the European economy in the fourth quarter of 2020 may increase the pressure on the euro. Its divergence from forecasts will significantly affect the market and its future short-term prospects. Another important task for sellers is to return EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2110, as the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the pair surpasses it or not. A breakout and being able to test this level from the bottom up will create a new entry point for short positions, which will push EUR/USD to a low in the area of 1.2069, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.2035 level will be a distant target. If we continue to observe an upward trend from the euro in the first half of the day, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2149, then it is best to postpone short positions until a new high of 1.2187 has been tested, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in order to pull it down by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2220. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bulls' attempt to continue the upward correction of the pair. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2149 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the euro. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2125 area will increase pressure on the euro. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair 02/16/21 2021-02-16 Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.2128 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.2177 at the resistance level (the blue bold line). The price, having tested this level, can continue to go up with the goal of 1.2234 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Candlestick Analysis - up
General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.2128 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the goal of 1.2177 at the resistance level (the blue bold line). The price, having tested this level, can continue to go up with the target of 1.2234 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). For an unlikely scenario: the price will try to go down from the level of 1.2128 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.2063 at the pullback level of 38.2% (the red dotted line). The price, having tested this level, can continue to go downwards with a target of 1.1975 at the pullback level of 50.0% (red dotted line). Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 16. The coronavirus is retreating. 2021-02-16 
COVID-19 incidence continues to drop. Clearly, this means that the second pandemic wave is ending, and that soon, the world will successfully emerge from this crisis. Now, global rate is 262,000, and 50,000 of it is from the United States. With regards to vaccination, countries are slowly catching up. The US has vaccinated more than 15% of its population, while the UK has vaccinated approximately 22%. As for the EU, no more than 5% of the population are vaccinated. Globally, 2.5% are vaccinated. Unfortunately, the recession in the US is exacerbated by the long weekend. 
EUR/USD, H4 chart. Euro is consolidating below the highs. A breakout is expected soon. Open long positions from 1.2060. In case of a reversal, open short positions from 1.2080. Longs may also be opened after a break above 1.2155. The US will publish latest data on retail sales, as well as Fed Minutes tomorrow. These may influence market dynamics and sentiment. GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 16. COT reports. Pound breaks through highs, ready to rise towards the 40th figure 2021-02-16 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: I paid attention to the 1.3909 level in my morning forecast and advised you to act based on it. Similar recommendations were made for the afternoon. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down the entry points. We can clearly see that a false breakout is formed with each unsuccessful attempt to surpass resistance at 1.3909, which creates the current to enter short positions. However, more than 15-20 points of downward movement cannot be made, after which GBP/USD returns back to the 1.3909 area. You can count on a downward correction after today's big growth in the Asian session, but subject to a number of conditions, which we will discuss below. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market. The demand for the pound keeps rising even though the pound rose to new highs. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for February 9 recorded a sharp increase in long non-commercial positions and a reduction in short ones. This led to a rather strong increase in the positive delta. Bulls are making their way to new highs on good news from UK vaccinations. Last week's UK GDP report only resulted in a larger build-up in long positions, in anticipation of a strong economic recovery in early 2021. Long non-commercial positions rose from 53,658 to 60,513. At the same time, short non-commercial positions decreased from 44,042 to 39,395, which only strengthened the bullish sentiment. As a result of this, the non-commercial net position rose to 21,118, against 9,616 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3745 against 1.3675. The fact that the bulls held their positions at such high volatility within the week once again suggests that the pair is clearly set to overcome annual highs and quickly return to the 40th figure area by this summer. I recommend betting on the pound's appreciation. As quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year, the demand for the pound will only increase. We are expecting news about the support of the population and the labor market in the UK in March, which is also pushing the pound to growth. 
The initial task of the pound buyers is to break through and settle above the resistance level of 1.3954, around which the entire Asian upward movement has stopped today. Testing this level from top to bottom creates an additional signal to open long positions in continuing the upward trend, which will easily open a direct road to the area of the new annual high of 1.3993, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.4036 level will be a distant target, however, one cannot do without a new portion of good fundamental statistics. In the event of a downward correction in GBP/USD this morning against the background of the absence of important reports, then it is best not to rush into long positions, but to wait for a false breakout in the support area of 1.3909, where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the bulls. If buyers are not active, then I recommend waiting for the 1.3862 low to be tested and buy the pound from there on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-30 points within the day. The lower border of the current upward trend is also located there. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Forming a false breakout in the 1.3954 area (similar to yesterday's sales, which I analyzed above) will return pressure to the pair and lead to forming a small downward correction in the first half of the day. An equally important task for the bears is to regain control over support at 1.3909. However, there are no fundamental reasons for this. Therefore, only a breakout and being able to test this level from the bottom up creates an entry point into short positions in hopes to pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.3862, where I recommend taking profits. There are also moving averages that play on the side of buyers of the pound. In case the pair grows during the European session and bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.3954, then I recommend not to rush to sell, but wait for the 1.3993 high to be updated. You can open short positions from there immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen only at the 1.4036 area. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the pound's succeeding growth in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3954 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the 1.3870 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
EUR/USD formation of the fair price zone for February 2021-02-16 The upward movement of last week did not allow us to form a reversal pattern at the weekly level, so now it will be important how the price behaves relative to the accumulation zone of 1.2134 to 1.2117. Today, there are clearly large limit orders to buy below the level of 1.2117 and to sell above the level of 1.2134. Until the daily trading closes outside the specified range it is not possible to determine the further priority. As soon as one of the borders gives up its position, we will have the opportunity to enter into a deal that will become the main one for the second half of the month.  Today, the pair is trading above the accumulation zone. However, it is required to close one of the active trading sessions above or below the specified zone. If the close is higher then, the growth target will be WCZ 1/2 1.2216 - 1.2208. The potential profit will be 80 points. If the closing of the day trading occurs below the level of 1.2117, the target of the fall will be the WCZ 1/2 1.2070 - 1.2062. In this case, the profit amount will be around 60pp. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 16, 2021 2021-02-16 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has tested the short-term trend line support from above and bounced back up again towards the level of 1.2151, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The market tried to break through this level, but failed so far. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2154 - 1.2178 zone. The immediate technical support is located at the level of 1.2088 and only if this level is violated, the bears will retrace more. On the other hand, if the level of 1.2175 is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at 1.2284 level. Please notice the overbought market conditions on the H4 time frame chart. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2312 WR2 - 1.2233 WR1 - 1.2184 Weekly Pivot - 1.2097 WS1 - 1.2056 WS2 - 1.1971 WS3 - 1.1920 Trading Recommendations: Any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken, because since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2175 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 16, 2021 2021-02-16 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of 1.3950 (at the time of writing the article). The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3965 - 1.3982, but due to the overbought market conditions at the H4 time frame chart it might take some time. So far the biggest correction had 90 pips, so any move down bigger than 90 pips will be treated as overbalance. The momentum is still strong and positive, so the bullish sentiment prevails. The larger time frame trend is still up as well and the price is above 50 DMA on daily and weekly charts. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4119 WR2 - 1.3990 WR1 - 1.3939 Weekly Pivot - 1.3805 WS1 - 1.3748 WS2 - 1.3625 WS3 - 1.3558 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level of 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3901 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 16, 2021 2021-02-16 Yesterday was a holiday in the US in celebration of President's Day. Due to this, there was a stagnation in the currency market. Nevertheless, there was an important American event this weekend that will have widespread consequences – the Senate rejected the congressional initiative to impeach Donald Trump. The fact is that the endless attempts of the Democratic Party to impeach Trump, even after he left the White House, somehow resemble the persecution of political opponents. In addition, this does not really contribute to improving the investment climate. More precisely, such actions completely destroy it, since investors constantly need to take into account the political component of their investments. Otherwise, there are extremely high risks that the investment will be recognized as politically harmful, and they can be very easily lost. This is exactly what happens in those countries where such persecution is practiced. So, the Senate's decision clearly allows a lot of people to relax. And there is no reason to deny that recently, the whole impeachment story has had a negative impact on the US dollar. To confirm this, one should look at the pound, which continues to gradually rise. Another thing is that the pound is clearly overbought, and it is only a matter of time before a correction occurs. But given how much the pound has grown, we are not waiting for a correction, but a usual collapse. Moreover, its steady growth is not supported by anything. This is because the economic situation in the UK is significantly worse than in the European Union or the United States. 
However, the situation in the European economy is also only getting worse. Here, the rate of decline in industrial production accelerated from -0.6% to -0.8%. And this despite the fact that even according to the worst forecasts, the decline was predicted to slow down to -0.3%. In any case, Europe's industrial decline has continued since October 2018, which means it lasts for twenty-five months in a row. We can see that this is really bad. Most importantly, the decline began long before the COVID-19 pandemic. So, attributing all economic problems to the coronavirus is nothing more than a substitution of concepts and an attempt to get away from real problems. Industrial production (Europe): 
Today, market participants will be warned again about the strengthening of the economic slowdown in the Eurozone. Well, at least the second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter coincided with the first. This means that the rate of decline in GDP accelerated from -4.3% to -5.1%. On the one hand, this news is not surprising. However, given the clear overbought status of the European currency, this may lead to a slight, but still weakening of the national currency. GDP growth rates (Europe): 
The EUR/USD currency pair found a resistance again in the 1.2150 area, where a natural stop occurred, leading in a pullback. We can assume that if this scenario repeats, euro's quote may pull back towards the level of 1.2100. 
Despite everything, the GBP/USD pair continues to move in an upward trend, updating the high of the medium-term trend. Considering its the high level of overbought and being near the psychological level of 1.4000, we can assume that a correction in the market is still very likely, despite the speculative mood status. 
AUD/USD. RBA's optimistic minutes: AUD approached an important resistance level 2021-02-16 The Australian dollar, paired with the US currency, got close to an important resistance level of 0.7800, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. It has already tested this target several times this year, but it moved away from the strong price barrier each time. However, buyers of AUD/USD continued to approach this level, with breaks in between due to downward pullbacks. Such price level (0.78) is a test for traders of the pair – either they will break through this resistance level and further move to the next price range (0.78-0.80), or slightly step back (0.75-0.77). Therefore, today's price surge is important in relation to the Australian dollar's future prospects. The primary reason for the growth was Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from the last (February) meeting, which was released today. And although this document did not cause any hype, it gave traders confidence that the regulator will adopt stimulus measures. It should be recalled that the RBA somewhat surprised market participants last month by deciding to additionally buy back bonds for $ 100 billion. These purchases will begin in April, when the current incentive program expires. 
Members of the expert community mostly expected a different result of the February meeting. Thus, the majority of analysts polled by Reuters were confident that the regulator would announce the curtailment of QE. Therefore, the results of the last meeting were "dovish". Nevertheless, the Australian dollar resisted its impact, not declining below the level of 0.7600. And after a few days, the AUD/USD pair continued its growth. Today's publication of the minutes "retroactively" confirmed the correctness of this decision. The fact is that simultaneously with the QE expansion, the RBA voiced quite optimistic rhetoric that suggested that the "dovish" decision was the last in the context of long-term prospects. Thus, RBA members believe that unemployment has already reached its peak and will now gradually decline, which is consistent with the latest releases in the labor market. According to Central Bank economists, Australia's GDP level will return to the level of the end of 2019 by the middle of this year. However, the situation with inflation is more problematic, but even here, the regulatory members noted signs of recovery. The RBA's own forecast is that core inflation will only reach the target of 2% by mid-2023. This fact is the main reason why the RBA plans to start raising interest rates no earlier than 2024. However, such long-term prospects have already been considered in current prices, especially since inflation indicators have recently come out in the "green" zone, exceeding the forecast values. Overall, the main theme of the RBA minutes was the idea that the Australian economy is recovering at a faster pace than the initial forecasts. The second one is that the second COVID-19 outbreak was weaker than the first, and the Australian economy was more resilient. These messages were repeatedly voiced by the regulator in one form or another. Given this rhetoric, the market believes that the bad situation will end soon – apparently, the February move of the Central Bank was the latest in a series of stimulus measures. The prevailing fundamental background allowed AUD/USD buyers to develop the upward trend and test the resistance level of 0.7800, however, this is extremely hard to break through. In turn, the US dollar index continues to move around the level of 90.20. The uncertain correction attempts were immediately not worked out, as the dollar bulls cannot find a foothold: in view of the general risk appetite, key macroeconomic indicators are showing a decline (Nonfarm, Inflation, Industrial production). On top of that, many Fed members are voicing very pessimistic and dovish rhetoric, hinting at a possible expansion of QE. All this allows the AUD/USD bulls to reach the 78th mark. 
Technically, the level of 0.7800 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) is also a key in relation to the further development of the upward trend. It is suggested to open longs either when this target is broken, or during a downward pullback in the event of an unsuccessful assault (for example, a corrective pullback occurs from the highs of the Asian session on Tuesday). On the H4, D1 and W1 time frames, the AUD/USD pair is located between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as above all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. All this indicates the priority of the upward direction. The first target is the above-mentioned level of 0.7800, and the next target is the level of 0.7900, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the W1 chart. Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 16, 2021 2021-02-16 
GBP/JPY continues to push higher and is currently testing resistance at 147.28 and could as long as minor support at 146.36 is able to protect the downside continue higher to resistance at 147.91. We are looking for a temporary top in the 147.28 - 147.91 area for a correction closer to 145.12 before the next push higher towards 156.62 as the next upside target. A break below minor support at 146.36 will indicate a temporary top is in place for a dip close to 145.12 from where the next move higher should be expected. R3: 148.87 R2: 148.23 R1: 147.91 Pivot: 147.28 S1: 146.66 S2: 146.36 S3: 145.95 Trading recommendation: We are long 50% GBP from 142.27 and we will move our stop higher to 146.30. Technical analysis EUR/USD for February 16, 2021 2021-02-16 
Ideally EUR/USD will stay below short-term key-resistance at 1.2155 for a break below support at 1.2079 that will confirm renewed downside pressure towards 1.1966 and 1.1692 as the next downside target. An unexpected break above short-term key resistance will add considerable pressure on the USD for a return to 1.2349 and possibly even closer to 1.2457 before lower again. The lack of upside momentum from the RSI indicates the odds for a break below short-term support at 1.2079 is greater than the possibility of a break above key-resistance at 1.2155, but at this point is still can't be excluded. Trading recommendation: Sell a break below support at 1.2079 or buy a break above resistance at 1.2155. Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 16, 2021 2021-02-16  Overview : The AUD/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 0.7723, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7723 because the trend is still showing strength above it. On the H4 chart, the price spot of 0.7723 remains a significant support zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move to the upside, for that this climb structure does not look corrective. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 0.7723 and 0.7750. We still prefer the bullish scenario. The AUD/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7723 towards the first resistance level at 0.7821 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7750 and further to the level of 0.7821. The level of 0.7860 will act as second resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7821. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support levels of 0.7693 and 0.7663, then this scenario may be invalidated. Conclusion : Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the region of 0.7723 this week. Forex forecast 02/16/2021 on AUD/USD, NZD/USD and EUR/USD from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-16 Let's take a look at the technical picture of AUD/USD, NZD/USD and EUR/USD at the daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: Arief Makmur  Born May, 15th/1970 at Jakarta; Graduate from Trisakti University in 1998 at Major Corporate & Bussiness Law. Starting in Finance World in 1998 at Jakarta Stock Exchange & Familliar with Forex Market since December 2003. Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Mihail Makarov  - Sergey Mityukov  Sergey Mityukov was born on September 18, 1981. He holds degrees in: - Process Engineering from Irkutsk State Technical University; - Psychology from Irkutsk State Technical University. Forex trading experience: 5 years. Sergey is a professional educational psychologist, the author of trading methods based on adjacent markets interrelation and developer of alternative approaches to Fibonacci sequence in trading. He has a 2-year experience in carrying out live and online trading conferences. His portfolio includes dozens of training courses and methods. He developed several indicators, which are widely used by traders on futures and spot markets. Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Alexandr Davidov  No data Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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