| Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 15, 2021 2021-02-15 
EUR/JPY has finally broken clearly above the resistance area between 127.09 - 127.49 indicating more upside pressure towards the next upside target at 129.06 and ultimately above here to for much higher levels. That said, resistance seen at 129.06 likely will be a tough nut to crack. Support is now seen at 129.49 and again at 127.12. We expect the later to be able to protect the downside as EUR/JPY continues higher towards 1279.06. R3: 128.55 R2: 128.25 R1: 127.72 Pivot: 127,49 S1: 127.12 S2: 127.05 S3: 126.90 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 125.85 and we will move our stop higher to 126.90 Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on February 15, 2021 2021-02-15 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, the market from the level of 1.2119 (closing of last Friday's daily candle), while moving up, may test the resistance level - 1.2177 (blue bold line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move up with a target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up
- Fibonacci levels - up
- Volumes - up
- Candlestick analysis - up
- Trend analysis - up
- Bollinger bands - up
- Weekly chart - up
General conclusion: Today, the price from the level of 1.2119 (closing of last Friday's daily candle), while moving up, may test the resistance level - 1.2177 (blue bold line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move up with a target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.2119 (closing of last Friday's daily candle), the price may start moving up to the resistance level - 1.2177 (blue bold line). If this level is tested, the price may roll back down with a target of 1.2075 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 02/15/21 2021-02-15 Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market may continue to move up from the level of 1.3845 (the closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3936 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line Indicator (the black dotted line). When testing this line, there will be a continuation of the upward movement with the target of 1.4376 at the upper fractal (yellow dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis - up - Fibonacci Levels - up - Volumes – up - Candlestick Analysis – up - Trend Analysis - up - Bollinger Bands - up - Weekly Schedule - up General Conclusions : Today, the price may start moving up with the target of 1.3936 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line indicator (the black dotted line). When testing this line, there will be a continuation of the upward movement with the target of 1.4376 at the upper fractal (yellow dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.3845 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue to start moving up with the target of 1.3936 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line Indicator (the black dotted line). When testing this line, it will go down with a target of 1.3769-13 average EMA (yellow thin line) GBP/USD. February 15. COT report. Donald Trump is acquitted by the Senate. Joe Biden talks about the "fragility of democracy". 2021-02-15 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair also performed a slight drop, after which a reversal in favor of the British dollar and a resumption of growth. By this morning, the pair's quotes rose to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895). Closing the pair above the level of 1.3895 will increase the probability of further growth of the British dollar in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.4063). An upward trend corridor keeps the current traders' sentiment "bullish". Meanwhile, in the United States this weekend, the impeachment trial of Donald Trump ended. Let me remind you that the trial took place in the Senate. The senators, who served as jurors, had to sort out the question of whether Donald Trump was to blame for the January 6 riot that led to the death of 5 people and the pogrom in the Capitol? The decision made by the Senate turned out to be extremely political. The Senate acquitted Donald Trump. 50 Democratic senators voted in favor of the impeachment, 43 Republican senators voted against, and 7 Republican senators voted in favor. Thus, except for 7 Republicans who voted against Trump, we can say that their own voted for their own. Trump's fellow party members in the Senate once again saved the former president from impeachment, as well as from getting into the Guinness Book of World Records, as a president who was impeached after he left office. Thus, there is now one less political problem in the United States. However, the completion of the process did not have any favorable impact on the US dollar. The US currency remains under pressure against both the euro and the British dollar. Thus, there are more important factors that traders take into account when trading with both the major pairs. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 1.3850, performed a slight drop. However, the bullish divergence of the indicator allowed a new reversal in favor of the British currency and consolidation above the level of 1.3850, which increases the probability of continued growth of this currency in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977). GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Friday, the UK released important reports on GDP and industrial production. The first one was better than traders' expectations and amounted to +1% in the fourth quarter. Industrial production was worse than expected, but traders paid more attention to the first report. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: On February 15, in the UK and the US, the calendars of economic events are empty. Thus, the influence of the information background will be absent today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from February 9 on the British pound was quite interesting and noteworthy. In recent weeks, speculators have not made serious steps in the direction of strengthening the "bullish" mood. However, all this time, the pound was still growing. The latest COT report showed an increase in the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders by 6,465 units. At the same time, speculators got rid of 4,660 short contracts. Thus, the Briton grew even without increasing long contracts from speculators, now it has an even greater chance of continuing growth. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3820 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3895. This goal has been worked out. New purchases are recommended when closing above 1.3895 with a target of 1.3976. It is recommended to sell the pound at the close under the trend corridor with the targets of 1.3744 and 1.3698. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. February 15. COT report. Is the crisis in Italy over? Mario Draghi and his cabinet have taken the oath of office 2021-02-15 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On February 12, the EUR/USD pair performed a slight drop below the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2104), after which it turned in favor of the European currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2151), from which it last performed a rebound. Thus, a new rebound will lead to the fact that the pair will again be able to count on some fall, and closing above the level of 1.2151 will increase the probability of continuing the growth of quotes in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2197). An upward trend corridor keeps the current traders' sentiment "bullish". Meanwhile, one of the greatest experiences associated with the European Union in recent times has been the political crisis in Italy. Let me remind you that the previous government was disbanded after several parties broke away from the ruling majority. It was not possible to form a new government, and the Prime Minister resigned. Our old friend Mario Draghi, who served as ECB president for a long time, was charged with saving the country from a new economic and political crisis. Draghi formed his team and on Saturday, February 13, the new government took the oath of office. The ceremony was held at the presidential residence in Rome, after which Mario Draghi introduced the members of the new government. The new government, as experts say, is a broad coalition that will allow you to achieve a majority of votes in Parliament. Thus, the EU has one less problem so far. Now it remains only to resolve the issue of the economic recovery fund, which is still not formed and is not distributed among the EU countries. However, the European currency is not too worried about this. Its overall growth continues. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a close above the downward trend line, so the mood of traders changed to "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2204. The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the European currency and increased the chances of continued growth. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, but it turned out to be false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair has performed a reversal in favor of the euro and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 12, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was released in the United States. There were no more important news or reports during the day. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - change in the volume of industrial production (10:00 GMT). On February 15, one report on industrial production in the EU will be released. However, it is not important, so the information background today will be extremely weak. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, another COT report was released. And it turned out to be much calmer than the previous one. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, which I consider the most important, opened 4,722 long contracts and got rid of 2,606 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators again became more "bullish". Accordingly, the prospects of the European currency are improving again after the report of a week ago, when speculators got rid of 23 thousand long contracts and many believed that the uptrend would be completed. However, I warned that this behavior of large players may be an accident. It is still too early to talk about the end of the upward trend. In total, during the last reporting week, all categories of players closed approximately 11 thousand contract positions. Consequently, interest in the euro currency has decreased slightly. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the euro currency with the targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197 on the hourly chart when closing quotes above the descending trend line on the 4-hour chart. The first goal was achieved. I recommend new purchases of the euro at the close above the level of 1.2151. I recommend selling when closing quotes under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2046. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 15, 2021 2021-02-15 
There was no time for the correction in green wave iv/ to evolve into a larger sideways correction and with the clear break above resistance at 144.94 GBP/JPY is already on the way higher to the first possible target for green wave v/ seen at 146.64, with the potential to continue higher towards 147.28 and 147.92. Once green wave v/ runs out of steam a new sideways correction towards 144.95 should be expected. Support is now seen at 145.35 and then at 144.95. R3: 147.28 R2: 146.64 R1: 146.39 Pivot: 145.92 S1: 145.75 S2: 145.35 S3: 144.95 Trading recommendation: We are long 50% GBP from 142.27 and we will move our stop higher to 145.20 EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 15. COT reports. Bears did not have enough strength to defend 1.2110. Euro returned to the horizontal channel 2021-02-15 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bears tried to surpass the 1.2110 level last Friday morning, and it would seem that they succeeded. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened and how to proceed. You can clearly see how the bears are trying to settle below 1.2110 and test this level from the bottom up, which creates a signal to open short positions. However, this did not cause the pair to sharply fall, since after several unsuccessful attempts to move down, the bulls took control of the 1.2110 level, and disappointing data on the US economy weakened the US dollar even more. Wait for a signal to buy the euro from the 1.2110 level, since after its return the reverse test did not take place. 
From a technical point of view, nothing has changed and the pair continued to trade in a narrow horizontal channel, in which it was in for the entirety of last week. Reports on changes in the volume of industrial production in the euro zone and the balance of foreign trade will be released today. However, these data are unlikely to put pressure on the market, as they refer to December last year and are no longer significant for the intraday market. Also, the Eurogroup is expected to meet today, at which issues of vaccination of the eurozone and its future prospects will be discussed. The United States will celebrate Presidents' Day, so volatility will likely be quite low. If EUR/USD rises in the first half of the day, buyers will be focused on getting the pair to settle above the resistance of 1.2149. Testing this area from top to bottom creates an excellent signal to open long positions in euros in order to rise to a high of 1.2187, where I recommend taking profits. Bulls will still aim for resistance at 1.2220. The euro might be under pressure if buyers are not active during the European session. In this case, bulls will need to focus on protecting support at 1.2110, just above which the moving averages pass. Forming a false breakout in that area creates a good entry point into long positions in hopes to sustain the upward trend. If buyers are not active at this level, I recommend holding back from long positions until the low of 1.2069 has been tested, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: I recommend opening short positions against the upward trend this morning, in the event of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2149, which creates a signal to sell the euro. Returning to the area below 1.2149 and testing it from the bottom up (similar to Friday sale, which I mentioned above) creates a convenient point to enter the market. There is no need to rely on eurozone fundamental reports, since even their discrepancy with forecasts will not affect the market and its future prospects. An equally important task for sellers is to return EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2110, the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the pair surpasses it or not. A breakout and testing this level from the bottom up will create a new entry point for short positions, which will push EUR/USD to a low in the 1.2069 level, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.2035 area will be a distant target. If we continue to observe an upward trend from the euro in the first half of the day, and bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2149, then it is best to hold back from short positions until a new high at 1.2187 has been tested, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in order to pull down the pair by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2220. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 2 revealed a sharp rise in short positions and a reduction in long positions, which reflects the pair's downward correction in late January and early February this year. Weak fundamentals for the eurozone economy and lower economic estimates from the European Central Bank limit the euro's growth potential, so does the fact that vaccinations in the eurozone will proceed at a slower pace than expected. All of this will lead to a double recession in the European economy in early 2021, but it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the EUR/USD recovery. Therefore, with each significant downward correction, the demand for the euro will only increase, and the lower the rate, the more attractive it will be for investors. The prospect of canceling quarantine will clearly keep the market positive in the future. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell from 238,099 to 216,887, while short non-commercial positions rose from 72,755 to 79,884. Due to the sharp decline in long positions, the total non-commercial net position fell to 137,003 against 165,344 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.2067 against 1.2142. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, but the market remains sideways. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2137 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2095 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 15. COT reports. Great UK GDP has led to a new wave of growth. Pound buyers aim to surpass 1.3909 2021-02-15 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Last Friday, it was rather difficult to determine the entry point at 1.3783, ahead of the release of the fundamental data on the UK GDP. Afterwards, it became a little easier to take action. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. We can see how the pair touched the 1.3783 level for quite a long time, not making it possible to take a convenient entry point from it. A sharp rise in the pound due to the GDP data caused the pair to settle above 1.3820, from where it was possible to open long positions in sustaining the pound's growth based on a high of 1.3862, which happened. I advise you to open short positions for a rebound on the 1.3862 area, counting on a correction. 
Good data on the UK GDP leaves hope for the pound's succeeding growth and further. Therefore, the buyers will initially focus their attention on resistance at 1.3909, which we have come close to during today's Asian session. Being able to break through this range and consolidation on it, along with testing it from top to bottom in the first half of the day creates a good signal to open long positions in sustaining the bull market. This will open a direct road to the highs of 1.3954 and 1.3993, where I recommend taking profits. A more optimal scenario for buying GBP/USD would be a downward correction to the support area of 1.3862, where forming a false breakout creates a new entry point into long positions. If bulls are not active and we see a rapid rally in the pound, then it is best to postpone long positions until a larger low of 1.3820 has been tested, where the lower border of the new rising channel also passes. You can count on a rebound from the 1.3820 level immediately by 20-25 points. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bears' initial task is to stop the current bull market, so they will focus all their attention on resistance at 1.3909, above which it will be quite difficult to break through without a short pause. However, it is very dangerous to open short positions against such a powerful trend. Therefore, the optimal scenario is to form a false breakout in the 1.3909 area, which may lead to a downward correction to the support area of 1.3862. The bears' succeeding direction will be the low of 1.3820, where I recommend taking profits. If bulls do not experience any special problems in the resistance area of 1.3909, then it is best to refuse to sell until the larger highs in the 1.3954 and 1.3990 areas are renewed, from which you can open short positions immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for February 2 revealed an increase in both long and short positions. This time there were more buyers, which led to an increase in the positive delta. The bulls' desperate attempts to surpass annual highs will lead to success sooner or later, so buyers do not lose hope that the bullish trend will continue in February. Each major decline in the pound prompts major players to raise long positions in anticipation of a more active GBP/USD recovery in the future. Long non-commercial positions rose from 47,360 to 53,658. At the same time, short non-commercial positions increased from 39,395 to 44,042, which prevented bears from taking control of the market. As a result of this, the non-commercial net position rose to the level of 9,616 against 7,965 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3675 against 1.3676. The fact that the bulls held their positions at such a high volatility within the week, once again suggests that the pair is clearly set to overcome annual highs. I recommend betting on the pound's succeeding growth. The demand for the pound will only increase as quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year. The support for the population and the labor market, which will be announced in March, will also have a positive effect on the pound's rate. All the talk about negative interest rates from the Bank of England was postponed indefinitely last week, which allows the pound to spread its wings. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a resumption of the bull market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case of a downward correction, the middle border of the indicator in the 1.3860 area will act as a support. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 15. COVID-19 pandemic is ending. 2021-02-15 
The COVID-19 pandemic is clearly ending. In fact, incidence rate in the US has decreased very significantly, almost 5 times below the recorded peak (it is now at 64,000 per day). As for global incidence, it dropped to below 300,000, from 830,000 before. With regards to vaccination, all is going well in the United States. Approximately 15% of its population has been vaccinated. Meanwhile, in the UK, only around 10% has been vaccinated, while in other large countries, it is below 5%. All in all, only 2.3% of the world's population has been vaccinated. 
EUR/USD - euro continues to trade upwards. Open long positions from 1.2060. Open short positions from 1.1950, or from 1.2080. No significant news is expected this week, except for the US retail sales report on Wednesday, February 17. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 15, 2021 2021-02-15 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has tested the short-term trend line support form above and bounced back up again. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2154 - 1.2178 zone. The immediate technical support is located at the level of 1.2088 and only if this level is violated, the bears will retrace more. On the other hand, if the level of 1.2175 is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at 1.2284 level. Please notice the overbought market conditions on the H4 time frame chart. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2312 WR2 - 1.2233 WR1 - 1.2184 Weekly Pivot - 1.2097 WS1 - 1.2056 WS2 - 1.1971 WS3 - 1.1920 Trading Recommendations: Any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken, because since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2175 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 15, 2021 2021-02-15 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.3779 and made another higher high at the level of 1.3901 (at the time of writing the article). The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3965 - 1.3982, but due to the overbought market conditions at the H4 time frame chart it might take some time. To momentum is still strong and positive, so the bullish sentiment prevails. The larger time frame trend is still up as well and the price is above 50 DMA on daily and weekly chart. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4119 WR2 - 1.3990 WR1 - 1.3939 Weekly Pivot - 1.3805 WS1 - 1.3748 WS2 - 1.3625 WS3 - 1.3558 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3901 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on February 15 2021-02-15 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair A sell signal appeared in the market last Friday, however, it did not lead to a huge drop in EUR / USD even though the MACD line, at that time, was in the sell zone. To add to that, the position of the dollar weakened amid not-so-good data on the US economy, so the euro only dropped by 15 pips. There were no other signals for the rest of the day. 
Trading recommendations for February 15 Weak data from the US led to a rise in EUR / USD. However, the quote still did not break above weekly highs due to rather low volatility. Today, there will be economic reports from the EU, but they are unlikely to affect the market since volatility will remain low amid President's Day in the US. Strong market movements are not expected. For long positions: Buy the euro when the quote reaches 1.2145 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.2185. EUR / USD will rally if there are good economic reports from the EU. But keep in mind that before buying, the MACD line should be above zero and is starting to rise from it. For short positions: Sell the euro after the quote reaches 1.2118 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.2076. Pressure on the euro may return at any moment, as the risk of a downward correction is still present, albeit less pronounced. Of course, before selling, it is important to make sure that the MACD line is below zero and is starting to move down from it. 
What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR / USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR / USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Two signals emerged in the market last Friday. However, both of them had to be ignored since they turned out to be false. To add to that, the sell signal at 1.3784 only brought losses, even though the MACD line, during that time, was in the negative zone. Fortunately, it was offset by the buy signal at 1.3809, which emerged after the release of good UK GDP data. The test of this level, as well as the movement of the MACD line into the positive zone, allowed the pound to rise by over 45 pips. 
Trading recommendations for February 15 GBP / USD traded upwards after the release of better-than-expected UK GDP. In fact, this bullish momentum continued during today's Asian session, as a result of which price continued to climb up in the market. But in the afternoon, volatility will most probably drop, since today is President's Day in the United States. For long positions: Buy the pound when the quote reaches 1.3907 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3945 (thicker green line on the chart). Breaking above the 39th figure could lead to the removal of stop orders, which will only strengthen the position of the pound and open new highs for it. But keep in mind that before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero and is starting to rise from it. For short positions: Sell the pound after the quote reaches 1.3881 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3844. However, risks for short positions are quite high, and the drops are unlikely to be large. Keep in mind that before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero and is starting to move down from it. 
What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. EUR/USD. Preview of the week: Fed Minutes, Retail Sales, ZEW and PMI indexes 2021-02-15 Today, the foreign exchange market is "semi-exiting": The United States celebrates the Day of the Presidents, and China continues to celebrate the Spring Holiday (Chinese New Year). Therefore, the main dollar currency pairs started the trading week with a flat - with the exception of the pound-dollar currency pair which is already testing the 39th figure. The Briton reacted positively to the reports from the front of the fight against coronavirus: the rate of spread of coronavirus in the country is gradually slowing down, while the number of vaccinated people, on the contrary, is growing. In response to such trends, the authorities have already started talking about easing the quarantine restrictions that have been in effect since the beginning of November. In Europe, the incidence of coronavirus is also declining: a downward trend has been recorded over the past four weeks. But this fundamental factor has a limited impact on the EUR / USD currency pair, as many European countries have decided to extend the quarantine until at least March, despite the positive trends. Therefore, traders of the pair are now focused on other fundamental factors. First, this is the general level of interest in risk and anti-risk assets; second, the macroeconomic reports from Europe and the United States. 
As for the political factors, the situation is unipolar: in favor of the risky euro and against the safe dollar. In particular, the short-lived impeachment process of Donald Trump has ended in the United States. The senators expectedly acquitted the 45th president, clearing him of all charges. Now Trump will be able to run for the # 1 post again in 2024. But in Europe, another political drama ended with a "happy ending". Former ECB president Mario Draghi "stitched" a broad coalition, formed and headed by the government, preventing the dissolution of parliament and early elections. In other words, Italy was able to avoid the worst-case political scenario, thereby supporting the euro. Against the background of such news, the US dollar index continued to decline at the start of trading following the trends of the past week. The indicator is heading towards the bottom of the 90th figure, reflecting the weak position of the greenback throughout the market. And if the macroeconomic reports of the coming days are also "unipolar", the index will go below the psychologically important mark of 90.00. As mentioned above, today the American and Chinese trading platforms are closed. This means that the market will start working in full force tomorrow - even though on Tuesday the economic calendar for the pair is not eventful. The main macroeconomic news will come from Europe, where the February ZEW indices will be published. Both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole, negative dynamics are expected. Thus, the German index has consistently increased since November, reaching 61.8 points. Today, experts are pessimistic: the prolongation of the lockdown, Lagarde's "dovish" rhetoric, slowing inflation, weak German data - all these circumstances cannot but affect the mood of entrepreneurs. Therefore, according to the general opinion of experts, the indicator will slow down to 60 points. The pan-European indicator has been growing in the same way for three months, but a slight pullback is expected in February to 57.8 points. But here it is worth noting that if the real figures coincide with the forecast values, the European currency will stay afloat. If the downward trend is more extensive, the EUR / USD pair will get a reason for its corrective decline. The US will publish data on retail sales on Wednesday. In December, this remained indicator in the negative area, reflecting the weak consumer activity of Americans. In January, it is expected to grow: the overall indicator should increase to 1.1%, excluding car sales to 0.9%. If this indicator again comes out in the "red zone", the dollar will definitely fall under the wave of sales. Also on Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published, which is an early signal of changes in inflationary trends. Recently, it has been showing positive dynamics, and in January, again, a small increase is expected - both in monthly and annual terms. Excluding food and energy prices, this indicator should also remain above zero (0.2% mom and 1.3 yoy). Another important document will be published on February 17. We are talking about the minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve. Here it is necessary to recall the last speech of Jerome Powell. Speaking at the economic forum last week, the head of the Federal Reserve did not sound any clear signals. His speech was balanced: on the one hand, he did not announce an expansion of QE, on the other hand, he made it clear that the current situation does not encourage talk about curtailing incentives. If the Fed minutes are balanced in a similar way, the dollar is likely to ignore the release. But if the balance is shifted to one side (hints of QE expansion or early termination of stimulus programs), the greenback will react accordingly. Given the previous macroeconomic reports and the rhetoric of most representatives of the Federal Reserve, we can assume that the minutes of the January meeting will be "dovish" in nature. It is also worth noting that this week, as part of various events, many representatives of the US regulator will speak such as: the heads of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco, Richmond and Boston. The final chord of the trading week will be the PMI indices. If these releases follow the ZEW trajectory, the euro will be under additional pressure. In general, experts expect a negative trend especially in the service sector. As for the manufacturing sector, there is a minimal slowdown compared to the previous month because the indices will still remain above the key 50-point level. The very fact of a negative trend may slightly increase the pressure on the single currency. But if the release is in the "green zone", then in this case, the single currency will receive broad support, due to the surprise factor (while the pessimistic result is already partially taken into account in prices). 
From the technical point of view, buyers of the EUR/USD pair still need to overcome the resistance level of 1.2150 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart) to open the way to the main goal of the northern movement – the mark of 1.2200 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, coinciding with the upper border of the Kumo cloud). After overcoming this target, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bullish signal "Line Parade": in this case, we can talk about reaching the upper line of the Bollinger Bands already on the weekly chart (1.2350). It is advisable to open longs after the EUR/USD bulls gain a foothold above the first resistance level, that is, above the 1.2150 mark. Forex forecast 02/15/2021 on SP500, Dow Jones, Gold and USDX from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-15 Let's take a look at the technical picture of SP500, Dow Jones, Gold and USDX at the daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Mihail Makarov  - Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Pavel Vlasov  No data Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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