Monday, February 15, 2021

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Analysis and forecast for USD/JPY on February 15, 2021
2021-02-15

Recently, it has often happened that the Japanese yen has been at odds with other major currencies against the US dollar. That is, if other allied currencies strengthened against the dollar, the yen declines and vice versa. This time, the Japanese yen showed solidarity and also ended trading on February 8-12 with an increase against the US dollar. This pair differs from the others in that both currencies, depending on the situation, are perceived by market participants as safe-haven assets. However, quite often, the main influence on the price dynamics of this instrument is provided by the technical picture, which we are going to consider right now.

Weekly

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As you can see, following the results of the previous trades, a candle with a bearish body and a fairly long lower shadow appeared on the weekly chart. This factor does not allow us to make an unambiguous conclusion about the further direction of the quotes. Moreover, attempts to continue moving downside are limited by the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, which acts as fairly strong support. So, in the last week's trading, the bears' attempts to pass the Kijun down on the instrument did not lead to anything. After reaching a strong technical level of 104.40, the pair gained support and began to actively recover. As a result, trading on February 8-12 ended at 104.94, which is slightly below the most important psychological level of 105.00. I believe that the inability of the bulls to close weekly trading above 105.00 indicates their weakness, but the long lower shadow of the last candle signals that the market does not want to decline or cannot do so yet.

At the same time, there are two specific points. First, under the Kijun line, at 104.18, there is a red Tenkan line, which can hedge and prevent the price to go lower. Second, in the case of an attempt to pass the resistance level of 105.77, the bulls for the pair may meet a strong obstacle in the form of a 50 simple moving average, which is quite able to provide strong resistance to attempts to move in the upside direction. However, the current weekly range in which USD/JPY is trading can be designated as 102.60-105.77, and since the pair is trading much closer to the upper limit of this range, an exit from it upward seems more likely.

Daily

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On the daily chart, we see that after a rebound down from 105.77 and gaining strong support in the area of 104.40, the quotes show growth. In particular, after the opening of today's trading, the dollar/yen is confidently moving up, breaking through the orange 144 exponential moving average and the red Tenkan line. On this chart, the trading range in which the quotes are located is even narrower than on the weekly timeframe, and it can be designated as 104.40-105.77. Typically, the pair is now trading approximately in the middle of the designated range.

The recommendations for USD/JPY will be as follows: If a reversal pattern or Japanese candlestick patterns appear in the area of 105.70, this will be a signal for opening sales. In the case of a decline in the area of 104.50 and the appearance of bullish candle patterns there, we buy. In both cases, given the frequently changing market sentiment, I do not recommend setting large targets but will limit the profit to 30-40 points. This recommendation is dictated by the unclear technical picture and the further direction of this currency pair.

Technical analysis and recommendations for USD/CHF on February 15, 2021
2021-02-15

Following the results of the last five-day trading, the dollar/franc currency pair showed a downward trend and closed the weekly trading at 0.8912. As noted in today's articles, the US dollar has lost ground against all major competitors, and the Swiss franc is no exception.

Weekly

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Despite the decline that the USD/CHF currency pair showed on February 8-12, in my opinion, there were no significant changes in the technical picture on the weekly timeframe. This can be judged by the fact that the pair continues to trade between the Tenkan(red) and Kijun(blue) lines of the Ichimoku indicator. In this particular case, the Tenkan supports the price without letting it go lower, and the Kijun line acts as a resistance. What are the prospects of the pair, judging by the weekly scale? The breakdown of the blue Kijun line will most likely lead to a breakout of the upper border of the brown descending channel. If this happens, the pair will go up from the channel and consolidate above its resistance line(it is also the upper limit of the channel), with a high degree of probability, it will be possible to assume that the trend has changed for the USD/CHF pair, which will create good prerequisites for subsequent growth, where the nearest targets will be 0.9080, 0.9120, 0.9160, and 0.9200. If the market chooses the downside direction, and the pair is fixed under the Tenkan, this will be a signal for the continuation of the downward trend, and the next targets will be 0.8835, 0.8790, and 0.8756, where the January lows of this year were shown.

Daily

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On the daily chart, after a false exit up from the Ichimoku cloud, the pair returned to its limits and even tried to exit in the opposite direction, that is, down. However, this was not supposed to happen, as the 50 simple moving average, together with the lower limit of the daily cloud, did not let the quotes lower and it remained within its limits. Let me remind you that when a particular currency pair is traded within the Ichimoku cloud, this indicates the uncertainty of market participants regarding the further direction of the quotes. Given the false exit up, the subsequent return to the limits of the cloud, as well as attempts to exit it in the downside direction, I dare to assume that in event of a true breakdown of the blue 50 MA, the lower border of the cloud will most likely not stand, and the pair will fall.

Moving on to trading recommendations for USD/CHF, it is worth noting that judging by the two timeframes reviewed, it may be too early to open positions right here and now, so I recommend that the most cautious traders take a wait-and-see position for now. For those who trade more aggressively and risky, I recommend considering selling USD/CHF as the main trading idea. At least, for now, it looks like that. When bearish candlestick patterns appear in the strong price zone of 0.8920-0.8955, we open short positions with targets of 0.8880 and 0.8840. If the pullback up to the indicated prices does not take place and the decline begins from the current values, we expect a breakdown of the 0.8888 mark, where the lows were shown on February 10, and after fixing under this level, on the rollback to it, we sell with the nearest goal in the area of 0.8840.

Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on February 15, 2021
2021-02-15

The last five-day trading session was not the best for the US dollar. The dollar weakened against all major competitors, including the single European currency. The reason for this course of trading was the appetite of investors for risk, as well as not too positive statistics from the United States, in particular, the increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. It seems that market participants have overestimated the degree of recovery of the world's leading economy from the effects of COVID-19 and have become warier of this issue. And so, in general, everything in the world goes on as usual. The World Health Organization (WHO), after it visited the Chinese city of Wuhan, did not receive an answer to the question about the source of the coronavirus epidemic, which subsequently swept the whole world. US senators have relented and acquitted the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, as part of the impeachment process.

Here it is necessary to note the very paradox of the situation. How can you impeach someone who has already surrendered his powers and is not in power? If Trump is accused of inciting a mob that rioted in the Capitol, and there is all the irrefutable evidence for this, then this is a prosecution, but not impeachment. The weakening of the US dollar was also influenced by the optimism that prevailed on the global financial markets, in particular on the stock market, for almost the entire previous trading week. If we return to the fundamental component, it can be perceived by market participants in different ways, as it has been repeatedly noted. Often, positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States do not support the US currency, but, on the contrary, serve as the basis for selling off the dollar. In this regard, when predicting the future price dynamics of a particular trading instrument, it is better to look for answers on the price charts, which we will do right now.

Weekly

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However, sometimes technical analysis can not give an unambiguous answer about the further direction of the quote. In my opinion, this is the situation observed on the weekly timeframe of the EUR/USD currency pair at this stage of time. In the euro/dollar review of a week ago, attention was drawn to the long lower shadow of the circled bearish candle, as well as to the support provided to the quote by the blue line of the Ichimoku Kijun indicator and the important psychological level of 1.2000. At the same time, it was noted that the 1.2000 level itself rarely provides support or resistance to the price, which cannot be said about the marks that are above or below 1.2000. Returning to the long lower shadow of the weekly candle, the week before last, it was assumed that the market does not want to continue moving in a southerly direction, which means that there is a high probability of subsequent growth. That's exactly what happened.

Nevertheless, in my opinion, we have not received an unambiguous answer about the further direction of EUR/USD. Although during the trading on February 8-12, the main currency pair of the Forex market ended with growth, the closing price of last week was below the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator, as well as the strong technical level of 1.2150, which was also repeatedly mentioned in previous materials, it is difficult to determine the direction of the pair on the current togas. By the way, the Tenkan red line is at 1.2150. The closing of this week above the Tenkan, and even more so the completion of trading above another very important level of 1.2200, will allow us to count on the subsequent growth of the quote. An alternative scenario with the closing of trading under the blue Kijun line and the support level of 1.1952 will indicate a bear market for the euro/dollar.

Daily

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At this period, we will pay attention to several technical points. First, the pair is traded within the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which is always a zone of uncertainty, until the price moves out of it in one direction. Secondly, look at how strong resistance to growth attempts is provided by the Kijun line, and just above 50 is a simple moving average. Only in the case of a true breakdown of 50 MA will it be possible to test for a breakdown of the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. At the same time, I dare say that after the breakdown of Kijun and 50 MA, the pair will significantly increase its chances of getting out of the Ichimoku cloud. In the meantime, the last three daily candlesticks further confuse the situation regarding the subsequent direction of EUR/USD.

After a powerful breakdown of the purple resistance line, there was no pullback to it yet. If such a pullback still takes place, then purchases are technically justified from the area of 1.2060-1.2050, where the Tenkan red line is also located. If in the area of 1.2130-1.2145 there will be another incomprehensible candle for the continuation of growth, which will have a longer upper shadow, you can try to sell with targets in the area of 1.2060-1.2050, from where, as already noted, it is worth considering opening purchases. At the moment, these are the assumptions. Let's see how the market will start a new trading week, and in tomorrow's article on EUR/USD, we will look at smaller timeframes.

Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on February 15, 2021
2021-02-15

As already noted in today's article on the euro/dollar, at the auction on February 8-12, the US dollar suffered losses against all major competitors. The British pound was no exception and showed the most impressive growth against the US currency. As noted in today's previous review, the positive sentiment of market participants, the growth of stock indices, as well as the reassessment of the recovery of the world's largest economy were the main factors in the weakening of the "American". Another important global topic is the universal vaccination of the population of countries against the COVID-19 pandemic. And it is in this aspect that things are much better in the UK than in other countries, for example, in the euro area. Far from the last role in the successful, at the moment, on the scale of the campaign to vaccinate the British is played by the Cabinet of Ministers, headed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. I am usually very skeptical about this political figure, but in the case of vaccination, he shows himself as a real leader of the nation, and this factor cannot be overlooked. Well, in order not to over-praise Johnson, let's now look at the charts of the GBP/USD currency pair to try to predict its further direction. Given the trading week that closed on Friday, let's start with the corresponding timeframe.

Weekly

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After the previous three weeks of unsuccessful attempts to break through the strong resistance of sellers in the area of 1.3757, at the auction of the last five days, the bulls for the pound finally managed to do this. Moreover, the weekly session ended at 1.3843, which is higher than the price zone of the nearest possible resistance of 1.3800-1.3820. Although, in principle, everything is quite logical. As a rule, after long and unsuccessful attempts to break through a particular level, when it does breakthrough, the price flies above the designated nearest targets. This is a normal phenomenon that can be observed quite often in the market. Now, the GBP/USD bulls need to keep the quote not only above 1.3800 but also update the previous highs at 1.3865. By the way, if memory serves, this is a fairly strong technical level, and it will not be easy to overcome it. If the bulls on the pound manage to pass 1.3865, their next target will be the area of 1.3900-1.3930. In the case of an alternative downward scenario and the closing of the current weekly trading under the level of 1.3757, its breakdown will have to be recognized as false and prepare for the subsequent decline of the pound/dollar pair.

Daily

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The daily chart shows even more clearly the role that the level of 1.3865 plays in the current situation. As you can see, candles with longer upper shadows have already begun to appear under this mark, which indicated that the strength of buyers is melting. However, Friday's candle showed that it is too early to draw these conclusions. The daily chart shows a clear range, which is represented by two very strong and significant levels: the broken resistance, and now the support of 1.3757 and the resistance of sellers at 1.3865. In my opinion, depending on which direction the price will go out of this range, its subsequent direction will depend. I am more inclined to the bullish scenario, and I expect to look for options for buying the "British" after the true breakdown of 1.3865, on a rollback to this level. At the same time, I recommend setting goals in the area of 1.3900-1.3930. If the pair returns under the broken resistance level of 1.3757 and gains a foothold under it, on a pullback to this mark, it is worth considering selling GBP/USD with targets in the area of 1.3720-1.3690. Tomorrow we will look at the situation that is happening on smaller timeframes, and if necessary, we will make adjustments to this forecast.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Euro and pound to storm new highs.
2021-02-15

Euro and pound continues to trade upwards, especially since demand for the dollar remains low in the markets.

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This was evidenced by the MSCI index, which jumped to a record high last Friday after the US dollar dropped against other currencies. Apparently, traders are encouraged by the positive outlook for the world economy, even though US bond yields continued to rise.

Aside from that, upcoming US stimulus also hurts the dollar. In fact, volatility has dropped to its lowest level since July 2020.

Many banks also continue to revise their forecasts, emphasizing that global economic growth should be very strong over the next six months. And if this happens, the position of the US dollar will most likely weaken against most of the world's currencies.

In line with this, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that G7 countries need to act more confidently on stimulus policies to support economic recovery. Her advice was not completely clear, but the main point is that governments should use higher costs so that the world economy could return to its previous growth rates as quickly as possible. Yellen also noted that the United States is supporting an increase in IMF borrowing (by approximately $ 500 billion) as part of an additional assistance to support developing countries.

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With regards to macro statistics, consumer expectations in the US deteriorated, as a result of which pressure on the dollar returned, thereby halting the currency's rally against the euro and the pound. Clearly, consumers are affected by the lack of consensus between Republicans and Democrats on the new economic stimulus.

The University of Michigan said the consumer sentiment index fell to 76.2 in February, much lower than the expected 80.8 points. In terms of inflation, it grew 3.3% year-on-year in February. Five-year inflation remained expectations unchanged at 2.7%.

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As for EUR / USD, bulls are currently targeting 1.2150, as a break above which will surely provide the market with an influx of new major players. And with that, the euro could jump towards 1.2190, or further at 1.2230. But if the quote drops to 1.2110 instead, EUR / USD will move to 1.2070.

GBP

The British pound hit new all-time highs after the latest report showed that economic indicators in the UK were much better than expected. According to the Office for National Statistics, GDP grew by 1.0% in the 4th quarter of 2020, much higher than the forecasted 0.5%. But despite the fairly active rebound in GDP, the level last year is still lower (by 6.6%) than in 2019. Not surprisingly, the slowdown in economic growth was largely driven by the services sector, which is still paralyzed by the quarantine measures implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The service sector grew by only 0.6%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 1.8%. As for industrial production, it rose by 3.3%.

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In terms of monthly statistics, GDP grew by 1.2% in December 2020, after falling by 2.3% in November. The indicator improved because during this time, the service sector expanded by 1.7% as many consumption-oriented industries resumed operations.

As for GBP/USD, breaking above the 39th figure will most likely lead to a jump towards 1.3960 and 1.4010. But if the quote drops to 1.3860, the pound will move down towards 1.3820.

Today, it is necessary to pay attention to reports on industrial production and foreign trade surplus of the Euro area. Production is expected to contract by 0.4%, while the foreign trade surplus is projected to be € 25.3 billion.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 15, 2021
2021-02-15

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Overview :

The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.3780 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3780 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart.

The Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart is just above 60 – indicating overbought levels. However, momentum remains to the upside and the currency pair is holding above the 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours.

All in all, there is a chance that GBP/USD disregards overbought conditions for some time.

Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3913.

the pair rose from the level of 1.3780 (weekly support) to the top around 1.3913. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3780 followed by 1.3698, while daily resistance is seen at 1.3913.

So, buy above the level of 1.3900 with the first target at 1.3981 in order to test the daily resistance 2.

If the trend breaks the second resistance level of 1.3981, the pair is likely to move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 1.4050.

The level of 1.4050 is a good place to take profits. Moreover,

On the downtrend: If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.3913, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.3913.

The market will decline further to 1.3780 and 1.3698 to return to the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.3565 in order to form the double bottom.

EUR/USD: plan for the US session on February 15 (analysis of morning trades)
2021-02-15

EUR/USD: plan for the US session on February 15 (analysis of morning trades)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2149 and recommended acting on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. Given the low volatility of the market, the test of the level of 1.2149 did not take place in the first half of the day, so there were no signals to enter the market. The fundamental data on the European economy was ignored by traders, as it was not of particular importance. The guidelines of buyers and sellers remained the same.

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From a technical point of view, nothing has changed, and the pair remained trading in a narrow side channel, in which it was all last week. This afternoon marks Presidents' Day in the United States, so do not expect high volatility. The pair will continue to be in a narrow side channel. The news from the Eurogroup meeting, which will discuss the issues of vaccination of the eurozone and its prospects, can lead to a small movement in the EUR/USD pair. In the case of EUR/USD growth during the US session, buyers will focus on a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2149. A test of this area from top to bottom forms an excellent signal to open long positions in the euro with the aim of further growth in the area of the maximum of 1.2187, where I recommend taking the profits.

The more distant target of the bulls remains the resistance of 1.2220. If in the second half of the day we do not see active actions on the part of buyers, then the pressure on the euro may return. In this case, the bulls will need to focus on protecting the support of 1.2110, just above which the moving averages pass. The formation of a false breakout forms a good entry point into long positions with the expectation of continuing the upward trend. If there is no activity of buyers at this level, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the minimum in the area of 1.2069, from where you can buy the euro immediately on the rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

The bears did not wait for the test of the level of 1.2149 in the first half of the day. I recommend selling EUR/USD against the upward trend only if a false breakout is formed in the area of the above resistance. Only a test of the level of 1.2149 from the bottom up forms a signal to enter the market. It is not necessary to count on fundamental data for the United States since there are no such data. An equally important task for sellers will be the return of EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2110, on the breakdown of which the further direction of the pair depends.

A breakout and a test of this level from the bottom up will form a new entry point for sales, which will push EUR/USD to the minimum in the area of 1.2069, where I recommend taking the profits. A more distant target will be the area of 1.2035. If during the US session we will continue to observe the upward trend of the euro, and the bears will not show any activity in the resistance area of 1.2149, then it is best to postpone short positions until the test of a new high of 1.2187, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound to reduce by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2220.

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Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 2 recorded a sharp increase in short positions and a reduction in long positions, which reflects the downward correction of the pair in late January and early February of this year. Weak fundamental data on the eurozone economy and lower economic estimates, which were given by representatives of the European Central Bank last week, limit the upward potential of the euro, as well as the fact that vaccination in the eurozone will take place at a slower pace than expected. All this will lead to a double-dip recession of the European economy in early 2021, but it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the recovery of the EUR/USD.

Therefore, with each significant downward correction of the pair, the demand for the euro will only increase, and the lower the exchange rate, the more attractive it will become for investors. The prospect of lifting the quarantine will keep the market positive in the future. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions declined from 238,099 to 216,887, while short non-profit positions rose from 72,755 to 79,884. Due to the sharp decline in long positions, the total non-profit net position fell to 137,003 from 165,344 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.2067 against 1.2142.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility has decreased, which does not give signals for entering the market.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 15 (analysis of morning trades)
2021-02-15

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3909 and recommended to act based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry point. It is seen how the formation of a false breakout, after updating the resistance of 1.3909, leads to a slight decrease in the pound by 20 points. However, it was quite difficult to count on a larger drop in the pair, especially given the bullish momentum observed during the Asian session. However, there are much fewer buyers in this range, and so far few people dare to increase long positions in the area of the current annual highs.

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In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the proto-trading of the 1.3909 range, which is now happening. The consolidation with the test of this level from top to bottom in the second half of the day forms a good signal for the opening of new long positions in the continuation of the bull market. This will open a direct road to the area of the highs of 1.3954 and 1.3993, where I recommend taking the profits. A more optimal scenario for buying GBP/USD is a downward correction to the support area of 1.3862, but it is unlikely that we will wait for it in the near future. Only the formation of a false breakout forms a new entry point into long positions. In the absence of bull activity and the rapid fall of the pound, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of a larger minimum of 1.3820, where the lower border of the new ascending channel passes. You can expect a rebound from the level of 1.3820 by 20-25 points at once.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

The bears coped with their initial task in the first half of the day, but this did not lead to a larger move down to the support area of 1.3862. The technical picture remains the same, but you need to understand that if no one sells the pound, it will continue to grow according to the trend formed at the end of last week. Trading against the trend is not the best idea. The bears should continue to defend the 1.3909 resistance. However, as in the morning, it will be possible to open short positions from it only when a false breakout is formed. This may lead to a downward correction to the support area of 1.3862. The longer-range target of the bears will be at least 1.3820, where I recommend fixing the profit. If in the second half of the day the bulls will not experience any special problems in the resistance area of 1.3909, then it is best to abandon sales before updating the larger highs in the area of 1.3954 and 1.3990, from which you can open short positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

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Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for February 2 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. This time, there were more buyers, which led to an increase in the positive delta. The desperate attempts of the bulls to break above the annual highs will sooner or later lead to success, so buyers do not lose hope for the continuation of the bullish trend in February this year. Each major decline in the pound forces major players to increase their long positions in the expectation of a more active recovery of the GBP/USD in the future. Long non-profit positions rose from the level of 47,360 to the level of 53,658. At the same time, the short non-profit rose from the level of 39,395 to the level of 44,042, which did not allow the bears to take control of the market. As a result, the non-profit net position rose to 9,616 from 7,965 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3675 against 1.3676.

The fact that the bulls held their positions on such high volatility within the week once again suggests that the pair is set to overcome the annual highs. I recommend betting on further strengthening of the pound. As the quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year, demand for the pound will only increase. The support of the population and the labor market, which will be announced in March this year, will also have a positive impact on the British pound. All talk of negative interest rates on the part of the Bank of England was again postponed indefinitely last week, which allows the British pound to "spread its wings".

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the continued growth of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Only a break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3915 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline, the pair will be supported by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3830.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
EUR/USD analysis for February 15 2021 - Broken slope pattern and potential for drop towards 1.2050
2021-02-15
UK PM Johnson: If we possibly can, we will be setting out target dates for earliest reopening

Comments by UK prime minister, Boris Johnson

  • No decisions have been taken on exact date to reopen schools
  • Hoping to do so by 8 March
  • We will try to set out a roadmap out of lockdown

Johnson is managing expectations a little before he gets into more detail on plans for the UK to exit lockdown next week. Nothing out of the ordinary so far but there is a degree of optimism going into next week's announcement.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that the buyers got exhausted today, which is good sign for further downside movement.

The price broke upside sllope pattern and I see potential for further drop towards 1,2052 and 1,1955.

Watch for selling on the rallies with the first target at 1,2055.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1,2145

Support levels:1,2052 and 1,1955.

Analysis of Gold for February 145,.2021 - Downside cycle still active and potential for test of $1.785
2021-02-15
  • Prior €25.1 billion; revised to €24.9 billion

Exports grew by 1.2% while imports fell by 0.3%, leading to the larger trade surplus at the end of last year. Overall trade conditions are still gradually pushing back towards pre-virus levels and that story should continue this year as well.

Further Development

analytics602a673a034e3.jpg

Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the sellers are in control as I expected last week.

Key Levels:

Resistance: $1,830

Support level: $1,78





Author's today's articles:

Ivan Aleksandrov

Ivan Aleksandrov

Pavel Vlasov

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Mourad El Keddani

Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.

Maxim Magdalinin

In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006.

Petar Jacimovic

Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"


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