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Gold could outperform US stocks in 2021
2021-01-08

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Bloomberg Intelligence predicts that gold will be lucrative in 2021, and at the same time outperform US stocks.

Strategist Mike McGlone said the metal has rallied very strongly in 2020, therefore, a $ 2,000-an-ounce resistance will be a support for this new year.

To add to that, many factors could also trigger a sharp rise, one of which is how low or how negative the rates will be, along with rising debt-to-GDP ratios and quantitative easing.

And if demand for gold rises very sharply in the markets, its rate could definitely outperform US stocks.

In terms of data for 2020, McGlone cited Bloomberg's All Metals Index, which rose almost 21%, beating the record of the S&P 500 by about 3%.

If market volatility continues to increase this year, gold's growth will boost, even despite the fact that on Thursday, there was a decline in prices due to higher yields on US Treasury bonds. Aside from that, the prospect of more US stimulus limit losses as well.

The outlook for silver is also very positive.

According to McGlone, "silver will continue to rise in 2021, as it did in 2020. It's unique attribute, half precious and half industrial, should keep it among the main beneficiaries of the favorable macroeconomic backdrop".

"New highs for gold in 2020 should mean that it is a matter of time before similar moves will be seen in silver and most other metals," he added.

McGlone also noted that the path to $ 50 will be more sustainable this year than in 2011, with a new low set at $ 12.

"We see the metal moving along the same trajectory as after the financial crisis, towards $ 50 an ounce," he said. "There is a good chance that the 2020 low of about $ 12 will be as stable as the $ 8.50 price in 2008, which has not been traded since."

Trading idea for gold
2021-01-08

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Gold has been declining for three days, which increases the potential for future growth of about 8,000 pips.

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In fact, the quote has already passed 1962, which means that at the moment, it is very risky to open long positions, although you can do so if there is a buy limit.

But the best action is to trade on the lower time frames, as such would be profitable since the growth potential of gold is impressive. The recommended target price is 1965.

Of course, traders still need to control the risks to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable as long as the right approach is used.

Price Action and Stop Hunting methods are used for the above trading strategy.

Good luck!

EUR/USD. Disappointing European inflation and anticipated U.S. Nonfarm
2021-01-08

The euro/dollar pair is declining for two consecutive days: it reversed after updating its two and a half year price high at 1.2349 on Wednesday, and is now heading below the level of 1.22. The current dynamics is not only because of the US dollar's general strengthening. The EUR/USD bears also take advantage of the euro's weakness, which began to actively lose its positions throughout the market after the release of inflation data. However, there is no need to rush into trading decisions yet, as Nonfarm data will be published during today's US session, which may affect investors sentiment, especially if they find themselves in the sell area. The preliminary forecasts were also unsatisfactory – most experts expect unemployment growth and wage decline.

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Now, let's start with the published European data. Inflation indicators were clearly disappointing, although it was difficult to expect other results due to the reintroduction of lockdowns in the UK. Thus, December's general consumer price index remained at the same level as it had been during the previous three months, that is, at -0.3%. This inflation indicator fell to the negative zone back in August last year, and has not left it since then. The core index also stayed around 0.2%. In particular, retail sales were disappointing: the indicator fell to -6.1% in monthly terms. The situation was only worse in March-April 2020, at the peak of the coronavirus crisis. It is obvious that consumer activity of Europeans significantly declined, which affected retail sales figures amid the second wave of the pandemic and widespread lockdowns.

In view of such tendencies, the euro declined all over the market – not only in pair with the US dollar, but also in the main cross-pairs. The dollar, in turn, received temporary support from significant American events, primarily the Capitol attack. It was reported that the death toll has increased to five. This surprising event increased the demand for the US currency as a protective asset. In addition, the Democrats are demanding to remove Trump from office, despite the fact that Joe Biden's inauguration is in less than two weeks. The factor of political instability provides background support to the USD.

On another note, U.S Nonfarm will be the most significant event today. The November figures have already reflected the negative impact of the second wave of COVID-19, but only partially. Here, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in November increased by 245,000 after the previous growth by 610,000. In the private sector, it increased by 340,000, followed by the manufacturing sector with a growth of 27,000.

The unemployment rate slightly declined – from 6.9% to 6.7%. However, it should be considered that Nonfarm are two weeks behind the reports on applications for unemployment benefits. It can be recalled that this figure has fluctuated in the range of 790-860 thousand over the past five weeks. Yesterday, this indicator came out slightly better than expected (+787 thousand), but this does not change the essence of the matter. For several months (since mid-spring of last year), this indicator has been steadily and consistently declining, but it began to grow again at the end of autumn which is amid the growing COVID-19 cases in some states and local lockdowns.

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Therefore, the December Nonfarm are likely to reflect the peak of the second wave of the coronavirus crisis in the US. Based on preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate will rise to 6.8%, while the number of employed will grow by only 60 thousand. At the same time, the level of average hourly wages is expected to decline to 0.1% on a monthly basis. These numbers are not tragic, but they will serve as another reminder that the pandemic continues to have a negative impact on the US economy. If the above indicators come out at the forecast level, the dollar will be under background pressure. However, if the actual figures do not match the expectations, the volatility of the pair will be much higher. The direction of the price movement will depend on whether the release is in the "red" or "green"zone.

In general, the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair remains, despite a significant corrective pullback. The first support level is located at 1.2190 (Kijun-sen line on the daily time frame). However, a trend reversal is only possible if the pair breaks through a stronger support level of 1.2100 (lower line of the Bollinger Bands in the same time frame). Based on today's publication, we can consider long positions with the main target of 1.2320 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands in D1), but only if the pair is not below the 21st mark.

Analysis of Gold for January 08,.2021 - Potetnial completion of the ABC correction and upside movement towards $1.927
2021-01-08
UK reportedly set to approve use of Moderna vaccine as soon as today

Bloomberg reports on the matter

The report cites people familiar with the Moderna approval process, in saying that the UK is reviewing the vaccine on an accelerated timetable and are poised to authorise it for emergency use as soon as Friday.

This will be the third vaccine set to be approved by the UK to combat the coronavirus but the Moderna doses may not be made available in the UK until April due to Brexit.

For some context, the Moderna order was made through the EU at the time with the UK set to receive 7 million doses and deliveries for the vaccine will not begin until early April.

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Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is potential for the completion of the ABC and upside continuation.

Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition on the 4H time-frame, which is another indication for the upside movement.

1-Day relative strength performance Finviz

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Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Lumber and Nikkei 225 today and on the bottom Ethanol and Natural Gas.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1,910 and $1,927

Support level: $1,875

EUR/USD analysis for January 08 2021 - Potential completion of the bigger ABC correction and space for upside continuation towards 1.2340
2021-01-08
Eurozone November unemployment rate 8.3% vs 8.5% expected

Euro area unemployment eased in November, defying estimates but Eurostat continues to caution that the data might underestimate the actual underlying impact of the pandemic on the region's labour market.

The figure disregards people who are registered as unemployed but are no longer looking for work or aren't available for work, so there's that to consider alongside the furlough programs that are masking actual labour market conditions.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that there is potential for the completion of the ABC and upside continuation.

Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition on the 4H time-frame, which is another indication for the upside movement.

1-Day relative strength performance Finviz

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Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Lumber and Nikkei 225 today and on the bottom Ethanol and Natural Gas.

EUR is slighttly negative for today...

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1,2280 and 1,2345

Support level: 1,2220





Author's today's articles:

Andrey Shevchenko

Andrey Shevchenko

Irina Manzenko

Irina Manzenko

Petar Jacimovic

Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"


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Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda

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