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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription Forex forecast 01/18/2021 on AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Gold and US Dollar Index from Sebastian Seliga 2021-01-18 Let's take a look at the technical analysis of AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Gold and US Dollar Index at the daily time frame chart. Technical analysis for EUR/USD pair for the week of January 18-23, 2021 2021-01-18 Trend analysis The price from the level of 1.2078 (closing of the last weekly candle) may continue to decline this week to the level of 1.1943 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 23.6%. Once this level is reached, the upward movement can possibly continue to the target of 1.2349 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Figure 1 (weekly chart) Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - down Fibonacci levels - down Volumes - down Candlestick analysis - down Trend analysis - up Bollinger lines - up Monthly chart - down A downward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis. The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price is likely to have a downward trend this week, without an upper shadow in the weekly black candlestick (Monday - down) and without a lower shadow (Friday - down). The downward target is 1.1943 (red dotted line) – pullback level of 23.6%. After reaching this level, the upward movement is likely to continue towards the target of 1.2349 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal. An alternative scenario: the price can decline from the level of 1.2078 (closing of the last weekly candle), with the target of 1.1943 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 23.6%. Upon reaching this level, it is possible to continue the downward movement to the target of 1.1774 (blue dashed line) – the all-time support level. EUR/USD: Demand for the euro is expected to drop this week, mainly due to the upcoming ECB meeting and Joe Biden's inauguration on January 20. 2021-01-18 The sharp rise of COVID-19 infections last week may force many central banks to reconsider their stance on monetary policy. However, changes will occur only in the second half of this year. In any case, many already expect that economies will shrink this 1st quarter, especially amid ongoing lockdowns. Aside from that, there is a high chance that central banks will keep interest rates at the current levels, without resorting to further stimulating the economy. Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde announced a rather positive assessment of the European economy. She said the forecasts that the bank published last December, along with the current data, suggest a more active GDP growth rate. She also highlighted the reduction in uncertainty following the US elections and the Brexit trade deal, as well as the more positive economic outlook amid the beginning of COVID-19 vaccinations in the country. Because of this, many believe that the ECB will not reinforce its monetary stimulus to get out of the crisis. According to them, the ongoing programs are quite enough for the EU economy. With regards to economic reports, a rather poor macroeconomic indicators came out from the US, however, the position of the dollar in the market is still quite high, which is against all logic. It seems that traders are focusing more on political events and how they can affect the economy in the future, so the negative data caused by the pandemic is leveled by the trillions of dollars that will continue to be pumped into the US economy. According to the report, US retail sales were down 0.7% in December, while economists had expected a decline of only 0.2%. This decrease proves the serious impact of lockdowns to the US economy. Consumer sentiment also declined due to the pandemic, since many customers have become less confident about their future. Thus, the index reflecting the degree of household confidence fell to 79.2 points this January, while analysts had expected a drop to 80 points. Given that the figure is still preliminary and does not include Joe Biden's new co-benefits program, the final figure may be different. Anyhow, the index of current economic conditions also fell to 87.7 this January, while the index of economic expectations dropped from 74.6 points to 73.8 points. But in terms of industrial production, everything is in order. The report for December showed growth well above forecasts, that is, an increase of 1.6% as compared to the expected 0.5%. Industrial capacity utilization also jumped to 74.5% in December. Aside from that, US inventories also rose in November, albeit marginal. According to the report published by the US Department of Commerce, inventories of enterprises increased in line with estimates of economists, so, in November last year, they increased by 0.5% compared to October, where the growth was 0.8%. Economists, meanwhile, expected the figure to rise by only 0.5%. As for the EU economy, the Central Bank of Italy said it will grow by 3.5% this year, and then increase by 3.8% next year. Then, it will slow to 2.3% in 2023. With regards to EUR/USD, there is a high chance that the decline will continue, at least until Wednesday, when Joe Biden is inaugurated. Big riots are expected in the US, so investors will not rush to buy risky assets against this background. To add to that, the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank is a deterrent for euro buyers. In this regard, a break below 1.2065 will only increase pressure on EUR/USD, which could trigger a sharp drop towards 1.2020 and 1.1980. But if the quote returns to 1.2140, the euro may rise to 1.2220 or 1.2280, and then to 1.2350. Technical analysis for GBP/USD pair for the week of January 18-23, 2021 2021-01-18 Trend analysis This week, the price from the level of 1.3585 (closing of the last weekly candle) is expected to decline to the target of 1.3354 – a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). If this line is tested, an upward movement will be possible to the target of 1.3705 (red bold line) – the resistance line. Figure 1 (weekly chart) Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - down Fibonacci levels - down Volumes - down Candlestick analysis - down Trend analysis - down Bollinger lines - up Monthly chart - down A downward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis. The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price will most likely have a downward trend this week, without the first upper shadow in the weekly black candlestick (Monday - down) and without the second lower shadow (Friday - down). The first lower target is 1.3351 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 14.6%. If this line is tested, there is a possibility of an upward movement to the target of 1.3705 (red bold line) – the resistance line. An alternative scenario: the price from the level of 1.3585 (closing of the last weekly candle) is expected to decline to the target of 1.3354 (red dashed line) – a pullback level of 14.6%. Once this line is tested, the downward movement can continue to the target of 1.3148 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 23.6%. Trading idea for gold 2021-01-18 To date, gold has declined by 15,000 pips, which clearly fits into a five-wave structure: And today, during the Asian session, the quote underwent a strong pullback (almost 4,000 pips), immediately after reaching last week's low. Taking this into account, it would be best to work for an increase, following the strategy below: Since the quotes have already formed a three-wave structure (ABC), where wave A is today's long initiative, long positions may be opened from 1826 and 1822, or the 61.8% and 50% retracement levels. The target levels, meanwhile, are 1840 and 1863. Of course, risks are needed to be monitored to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable if the approach used is correct. The strategy above uses Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January, 18 2021-01-18 EUR/USD Bears fulfilled the necessary conditions for a decline. As a result, at the end of the previous week, the euro/dollar pair touched the level of 1.2075. The daily cloud is the main target for the downtrend. The cloud is supported by such levels as 1.1975 – 1.1886. The resistance level is still located at 1.2170 and daily cross is at 1.2170 – 1.2207 – 1.2241. The levels of 1.2048-1.2016-1.1959 are the main targets on a daily chart. The key resistance levels are located at 1.2105 (the central pivot point) and 1.2147 (the weekly long-term tendency). These levels may influence the market situation. GBP/USD At the end of the previous week, the pound/dollar pair dropped to the daily short-term trend. At the moment, bears should break the daily Tenkan (1.3580) and find the target to break the cloud on the four-hour chart. As a result, the next targeted levels will locate at 1.3422 (daily Kijun + weekly Tenkan + a target to break the cloud on the four-hour chart) as well as the area between 1.3450-1.3314 (lower limit of the monthly cloud + daily cloud + weekly and monthly Fibo Kijun) and the support level of 1.3490 (daily Fibo Kijun). At the moment, bears are prevailing on smaller time frames. They are testing the first support level of classic Pivot points (1.3537). Then, we can see such levels as 1.3491 (S1) and 1.3411 (S2). On small time frames, the key levels are located at 1.3617-14 (central Pivot level + weekly long-term tendency). If the pair returns to the mentioned levels and consolidates above them, the current market situation will change. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120) Analysis of EUR/USD on January 18. The priority is still wave pattern, then followed by news background 2021-01-18 The wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair has already completed its five-wave form. Thus, we can now expect the start of a new section of downward trend. If the current assumption is correct, then the quotes will further decline to the targets located around the 19th and 18th mark. However, we should remember that the demand for the US dollar in recent months has been extremely low, so the upward trend section of the trend might rather continue to be complicated. At the same time, the wave pattern in the smaller time frame also indicates a possible completion of the upward section. The expected wave 5 in 5 managed to fully complete its form. Now, a successful attempt to break through the low of the expected wave 4 will indicate that the pair is ready to form the low of the three wave sections of the downward trend. Everything is pointing at the formation of a new trend segment which could indicate the beginning of a correction. In any case, I expect the quotes of the instrument to decline further. Today's news background is very interesting and varied at the moment, but it failed to influence the EUR/USD pair. What are currently the focus of the markets? Initially, it is paying attention to Joe Biden's inauguration, which will be held on January 20 and, accordingly, Donald Trump's resignation. The inauguration is just a pure formality, since it has long been clear to everyone that Biden will be the new US president, and Trump's attempts to reverse the election have failed. However, the markets are worried that the Capitol attack last January 6 will repeat. In this case, many states called on a state of emergency. In Washington, DC troops are patrolling and many streets are closed. In general, there is a feeling that the country is not preparing for the president's inauguration, but for terrorist attacks. The FBI also mentioned that armed protests and marches are possible. These are certainly not terrorist attacks, but still very dangerous. Secondly, some countries in the EU are going to strengthen, extend, or introduce quarantine measures/lockdown. For example, Austria has already announced the extension of quarantine until February 7, while Germany is preparing to introduce the so-called "mega-lockdown". It is expected that all transport will be stopped in the country, and a curfew will be imposed. The situation is similar in France, where a curfew has already been in force. At the same time, we can not say that there has been an increase in the number of cases of COVID-19 in recent weeks. Perhaps, the authorities know what we don't know or they are hiding the real numbers. Third, there is a political crisis in Italy, which may end in re-elections to Parliament. Eurosceptics' victory in this case is threatening, which will promote the idea of leaving the EU over the next few years. And this can naturally be dangerous both for the European Union and for the European currency. In general, there is a lot of news and events, but the instrument moves extremely calmly and exactly in accordance with the wave pattern. Apparently, the above-mentioned events do not affect the markets. General conclusions and recommendations: The EUR/USD pair is presumed to complete the formation of the upward section of the trend. Thus, I recommend selling it with the targets at 1.20 and 1.19, at each new sell signal of the MACD indicator. The current pattern does not look like a simple corrective wave, but rather the end of the upward trend. Therefore, several downward waves can be expected. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Sergey Belyaev Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Pavel Vlasov No data Andrey Shevchenko Andrey Shevchenko Zhizhko Nadezhda Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn Alexander Dneprovskiy Graduated from Kiev State University of Economics. On Forex market since 2007. Started his work at Forex as a trader. Since 2008 is working as a currency analyst. Subscription's options management Theme's: Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets Author's : A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda Edit data of subscription settings Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely, Analysts Service If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the InstaForex Toll free numbers right now: 1 866 8000 719 0 8000 51 88 99 0 800 898 548 1 800 882 528 001 803 017 910 0 800 500 329 822 140 799 8 800 080 5553 Other countries +7 (499) 7042343, +7 (812) 4580351 E-mail: support@instaforex.com InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. 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