Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Justin Trudeau’s next big fight — Pandemic-monium — The Halifax International Security Forum vs. China

Go inside the corridors of power in Ottawa politics.
Nov 18, 2020 View in browser
 
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By Maura Forrest

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After months dominated by the pandemic, the Liberal government is starting to move on some of its big promises from the Before Times. Get ready for some new battles to begin.

Welcome to Corridors. I'm your host, Maura Forrest. In today's edition: Trudeau looks beyond Covid-19, while facing calls for a national response to the surging numbers. Get in touch: mforrest@politico.com

DRIVING THE WEEK

PROMISES, PROMISES: It's been more than a year since the Liberals were re-elected on promises to achieve ambitious new climate targets (for real this time!), to do something vague about pharmacare and to plant an awful lot of trees. Much of their 2019 mandate has sat on the backburner, but it's finally starting to feel like wheels are turning again on parts of the Liberal agenda ( except for the trees — please don't ask about the trees).

Changing climate: The Liberals will introduce climate accountability legislation as early as Thursday , which will pave the way for five-year targets to get Canada to net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050. The legislation itself likely won't set out those targets. That will come later, after the government sets up — you guessed it — an expert panel. But the bill is the first major step the Liberals have taken on climate change since the last election.

And then there's the government's plan to exceed its 2030 emissions target under the Paris Agreement, which is likely to be unveiled within the next month. A caveat: it seems the plan may not actually reveal a new 2030 target just yet. But it should at least give a sense of how the Liberals plan to get to… wherever it is they're aiming to get to.

— Coming soon: Somewhere in there, we're also expecting the long-awaited fiscal update. And Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also floated an early December meeting on the premiers' demand for increased health transfers.

New privacy rules: Then, too, there's the overhaul of Canada's privacy law, introduced Tuesday by Industry Minister Navdeep Bains. The bill is meant to give people more control over their personal data online, and it would give a new tribunal the power to fine companies that break the rules. The bill was well-received by privacy advocates, but some experts have raised concerns it could hurt businesses already dealing with an economic crisis. The Conservatives echoed those concerns Tuesday, but in an interview with POLITICO's Andy Blatchford, Bains insisted the new law will be good for businesses. "What this legislation … does is create trust for Canadians and consumers," he said.

— Don't forget CanCon: Debate will begin today on the Liberals' new bill that would require streaming giants like Netflix to make financial contributions to Canadian content. That bill is already seeing pushback from advocates who say it won't do enough to protect Canadian cultural sovereignty. Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has slammed the bill for not including a quota for investment in francophone productions.

 

2020 HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL SECURITY FORUM: Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 12th annual Halifax International Security Forum . As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream conversation beginning at 11:30 a.m. on November 20.

 
 
HALLWAY CONVERSATION

Even as Covid-19 case numbers surge, the government is trying to tackle a long to-do list. Corridors asked for thoughts on the next big fight the Liberals will face.

Susan Smith, co-founder of Bluesky Strategy Group and Liberal strategist: They must quickly present their economic road map that catalyzes business and consumer spending, demonstrate that they are investing responsibly in infrastructure and other programs, reboot Canada-U.S. relations (particularly keeping KXL on the rails) and put something new — like a national child care strategy — in the window for voters who have an eye on the next federal election.

Melissa Lantsman, vice president of public affairs at Enterprise and Conservative strategist: The government is staring down the path of a permanent expansion of the welfare state, where they rely on temporary supports like cash transfers, industry bailouts and large scale government programs as an indefinite … economic plan in the absence of any other. When the decision-making circle in government becomes too small and the singular focus is on the crisis response … it becomes obvious that there is no forward planning.

Robin MacLachlan, vice president at Summa Strategies and NDP strategist: The big challenge the Liberals now face is delivering on the optimism Canadians may be feeling about the possibility of an effective vaccine against Covid-19. The federal government must plan the coordination of a rapid, national immunization program for 36 million Canadians. This is an enormous feat with complexities ranging from the stability of vaccines, overlapping federal and provincial jurisdiction, agreeing on who gets the vaccine first, and overcoming fake news (and genuine concerns) about vaccine safety.

Check out this CBC News story for the latest on the government's vaccine preparations.

THIS WEEK ON THE HILL

People are reflected in a window as they wear face masks.

People are reflected in a window as they wear face masks on a street in Montreal, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. | Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press via AP

PARLIAMENT AND PANDEMIC: All together now? It was probably only a matter of time before we found a way to turn the Covid-19 response into a national debate about federalism. With case numbers spiking across much of the country and provincial governments taking very different steps to bring them down, there's a growing chorus of voices demanding a coordinated federal response. One of the latest was Green Party Leader Annamie Paul, who this week suggested a national task force might do the trick.

— Emergency response: Trudeau has been asked since the spring if he would consider invoking the Emergencies Act to take charge of the pandemic response, and has consistently responded with a hard pass and an update on exactly how many highly collaborative and constructive calls he's had with the premiers. But now some are suggesting he could simply use the government's emergency powers under the Constitution. It would be easy, they say.

This seems rather unlikely, given that Ottawa has so far shown no desire to intrude on provincial jurisdiction, and several provinces are openly hostile to the idea. And if the Liberals suddenly made themselves responsible for the success of the provinces' Covid-19 responses, they would also make themselves liable for any failures, said Eric Adams, a professor of law at the University of Alberta. "If you take over this file, you will also take over the political problems associated with it."

— Bully pulpit: That's not to say there aren't other options. Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and an assistant professor at the University of Toronto, tells Corridors that Ottawa has "a bully pulpit opportunity… to shame or nudge recalcitrant provinces." Trudeau dipped a toe into those waters last week when he called on provinces to "act now." Furness said the federal government could do more to find solutions that have worked in one part of the country and champion them elsewhere.

— For more: CBC News has this exclusive interview with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government's top infectious disease expert, on vaccines, lockdowns and Canada's response to the pandemic. Here's the Globe and Mail's Andrew Coyne on the role the federal government should be playing. And in the Toronto Star, Chantal Hébert argues why Trudeau shouldn't override the provinces.

Happy holidays: It's worth noting the flurry of recent U.S. news stories declaring Canada's Thanksgiving a "disaster," a "cautionary tale" and a "superspreading event," in advance of American Thanksgiving next week. It's true that public health officials have said Thanksgiving likely played a role in Canada's rising case numbers, though they tend not to be too definitive.

In any case, none of this bodes very well for Canada's holiday season. Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said last week that things are "not looking good" for Christmas, though it seems the province-by-province approach to the Covid-19 response will extend to the holidays. In Quebec, Premier François Legault is considering extending the school break at Christmas and allowing small gatherings. Ontario is also looking at an extended break.

So close: Somehow, despite an apparent agreement, MPs have not yet put an end to the standoff over investigations of the WE Charity affair that have derailed two parliamentary committees for weeks. On Monday, it appeared the Liberals and Conservatives had reached a compromise on the unredacted WE-related documents the Tories have been demanding. But at the finance committee on Tuesday, the Liberals asked for more time to review the Conservatives' proposal, which prompted a fresh round of outrage from the opposition before the issue was punted to Thursday's meeting.

— And yet so far: Over at the ethics committee, the Liberals finally allowed a vote Monday on an NDP motion to investigate the WE affair and other possible ethical lapses, after more than 30 hours of filibuster. The motion passed — and then the Liberals ran out the clock and prevented the committee from starting to plan its investigation.

No CERB for them: Remember this CBC News story from the summer that found more than a quarter of federal public servants had taken paid leave during the pandemic using pay code 699? A quick update: The latest federal figures show that's now closer to 40 percent. Roughly 112,000 of the nearly 300,000 public servants took "other leave with pay" between March and September for a total of 18 million hours of paid leave. The government's webpage doesn't include a price tag, but back in August, the parliamentary budget watchdog estimated a cost of C$828 million between March and June for 13 million lost hours. Employees have taken paid leave because they didn't have childcare or couldn't access their IT network, primarily in the first few months of the pandemic.

YOU TELL US

Corridors is a new weekly newsletter for MPs, lobbyists, executives, activists and any readers who are interested in what's going on around Parliament Hill. Every Wednesday we will look at the people pulling the levers of power in Ottawa and the questions that are influencing decisions on Parliament Hill and in the provinces. Join the conversation! You can email us at mforrest@politico.com, ablatchford@politico.com, lgardner@politico.com and sallan@politico.com

IN THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENS

Peter Van Praagh is the founding president of Halifax International Security Forum.

Peter Van Praagh is the founding president of Halifax International Security Forum. | Courtesy the Halifax International Security Forum

The House of Commons will vote today on a Conservative motion calling for a tougher approach to Chinese interference in Canada — one element of an ongoing debate about Canada's stance on China. With two Canadians detained in China for nearly two years and a decision outstanding on whether to allow Huawei gear in Canada's 5G networks, the Liberal government is facing calls from some quarters to take a harder line.

China's foreign policy will be top of mind during this year's Halifax International Security Forum, an annual gathering of defense and security leaders from democratic countries that kicks off on Friday. Corridors spoke with founding president Peter Van Praagh about this year's (virtual) event. Our interview has been edited for length and clarity.

What will be the main focus of this year's forum?
The forum tries to take the events in any given year and project ahead. People want to understand what the United States is going to look like with a Biden presidency and what the world is going to look like post-Covid. The other big thing we're talking about this year is China, which has developed a much more assertive diplomatic approach to the world. We've written a handbook called China vs. Democracy: The Greatest Game.

What's the message in the handbook for Canada?
Because there's so much money to be made in China, there hasn't been enough coordination between the democracies. What's necessary is an opportunity for Canada, the United States, European allies, Asian democracies, to really have a common understanding of what the challenge is, and how to meet it together.

What do you think of the Canadian government's stance on China?
China is a bully. And I think 2020 brought a greater understanding that China was a bully, and that it was going to be a bully going forward.
For me, standing up to a bully is always the best thing to do. But it's better to do it with friends and with partners. This does require solid, sound, reasonable and tough American leadership, which I think we're going to get moving forward with the Biden administration.

The two Michaels have been detained in China for more than 700 days. Does Canada not have good reason to be cautious?
Canada has done a great job trying to bring other countries together so that when other countries, diplomats and government officials talk to China, they raise the two Michaels. That's really what I'm talking about.

When China picks a fight with a smaller country, they are expecting at this juncture that they're only going to have to deal with that smaller country. If the Chinese take Canadians hostage, all of Canada's allies should feel that they have taken their people hostage, so that China sees a common front immediately.

How do you think the Biden administration could affect Canada's relationship with China?
The Trump government has been unpredictable. So it's been very difficult to make a comprehensive, cohesive policy when the American policy has been erratic.

What's important now is that we will get a policy out of Washington. American allies, including Canada, will know what it is. And that will then help the Canadians either stay the course or modify their approach, not just to China, but just about every issue.

— Tune in: Members of the public can register here for updates about this year's forum, and can watch the main plenaries on the HFX website as well as on the HFX Facebook page and YouTube channel . Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan will participate in a panel on Saturday at 12:40 p.m. ET moderated by POLITICO's Lara Seligman, to discuss "the road that lies ahead for middle powers who are increasingly caught up in the great-power tug," according to organizers. Watch the livestream here.

ON THE NOTICE PAPER

Movers and shakers: Bill Morneau will join the Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs in 2021. "Very excited!" the former finance minister tweeted as he circulated news of the gig.

Celebrations: The Canadian American Business Council's annual State of the Relationship dinner is tonight. Like everything else, it's virtual this year. Follow our lead and find something fancy to wear with your stretchy pants. CABC leader Maryscott Greenwood tells POLITICO's Lauren Gardner that it's going to be fun. "It's not everybody in a ballroom together, but we'll get more participation because you can do it from your house."

— See you on Zoom: Corridors got a sneak peak of the diplomats and politicians who will make appearances on tonight's CABC livestream: Katherine Brucker, the U.S. chargé d'affaires in Ottawa; Texas Secretary of State Ruth Hughs; Ontario Premier Doug Ford; Quebec Premier François Legault; International Trade Minister Mary Ng; Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Denny Heck (D-Wash.) and Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.); Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.); former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean; and former Conservative MP Lisa Raitt.

— A New Democratic Party party: The Broadbent Institute's 2020 Progress Gala promises to be a digital celebration of hope featuring inspiration from Jann Arden, Anand Giridharadas, Sandy Hudson, Valérie Plante and Waubgeshig Rice. Thursday's event is free, but requires registration.

Birthdays: HBD to Prince Edward Island MP Robert Morrissey today … Conservative MP Chris Warkentin will be 42 on Friday. … There will be celebrations on Sunday for MP Geoff Regan (61), MP Michael Chong (49) and former MP Robert-Falcon Ouellette (44). Our very best wishes to Senator Rosemary Moodie who will be 64 on Monday.

Got a tip, event, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other suggestion for Corridors? Let me know: mforrest@politico.com

The Reading Room

Everyone's reading about Andrew Scheer. He just fired his sister-in-law. And reportedly employed his sister while speaker and deputy speaker of the House.

The Canadian Press attempts to explain tweets from Donald Trump and Elections Canada. Standby for the backstory.

Covid-19 has Canadians feeling somewhat less cynical, slightly more optimistic and a little bit more trusting of government and each other, according to a new report from the Samara Centre for Democracy with the Consortium on Electoral Democracy. Tl;dr takeaway: "Canadians should be given a more central role in designing the post-pandemic society."

Check out the latest episode of POLITICO's podcast Global Translations, where experts are sounding the alarm on why we're in dire need of critical minerals. A new episode released today considers the next dirty fight over clean energy.

In this new study for the Institute for Research on Public Policy, David Gray and Philip Leonard make the case for an employment insurance revamp to tackle inadequacies that existed long before Covid-19.

Find a deep dive on the Saskatchewan election in this e-book from the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, which includes observations on health care, fiscal anchors, and "the whole global warming thing."

Pro Zone

Canada unveils major reboot of private-sector privacy law.
Trump seeks final stamp on drug prices with sweeping rule.
Canada pressed to upgrade agricultural trade ties with China despite tensions.
Transition 2020: Canada's ambassador builds fresh ties with familiar faces.
Conservative health critic details need for Covid-19 data, government transparency.

TRIVIA QUESTION

Congratulations to Bob Sherrin of Burnaby, B.C., who was first to guess that Francis Pegahmagabow is the highly decorated Indigenous soldier on the shortlist to be featured on the next C$5 bill.

Here's this week's question:

Name the Canadian town where a 2006 film was shot starring the late, great Alan Rickman.

Email mforrest@politico.com with your answers — or with trivia suggestions!

With thanks to Editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage, Lauren Gardner and Andy Blatchford

 

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Maura Forrest @mauraforrest

 

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